[Signing] Flames sign Blake Coleman (6 years, $4.9m AAV)

[PaperBagger'14]

I'm not a big fan of the signing for no other reason than the $$$/term. Coleman seems like a super likeable dude with a great attitude and work ethic.

I'd rather the flames had used his cap hit towards landing Eichel, but it is what it is now.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

I'm not a big fan of the signing for no other reason than the $$$/term. Coleman seems like a super likeable dude with a great attitude and work ethic.

I'd rather the flames had used his cap hit towards landing Eichel, but it is what it is now.

Flames kind of needed a RW though

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

I'm not a big fan of the signing for no other reason than the $$$/term. Coleman seems like a super likeable dude with a great attitude and work ethic.

I'd rather the flames had used his cap hit towards landing Eichel, but it is what it is now.

Well, this has not in any way prevented the Flames from acquiring Eichel, so this seems like an odd complaint.

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[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Camronius

Fancy stats look good and so does the eye test. If this is the same type of player we're getting, I'm excited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ea0l7bq5Jc

The way he skates to the net reminds me of Shean Donovan. Better hands and shot, not as fast, but that hunger to just get to the net as fast as he can in the most direct route possible.

[stemit14]

Coleman seems like the kind of player that Pelletier projects to be if he develops properly.


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[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Well, this has not in any way prevented the Flames from acquiring Eichel, so this seems like an odd complaint.

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It has made acquiring Eichel ~5 mil per year more difficult from a salary cap perspective. And what did we gain? A stanley cup winning 3rd liner.

This is the perfect move to make for a team who doesn't want to make the 2nd round of the playoffs and also doesn't want to draft Shane Wright or Connor Bedard.

[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Flames kind of needed a RW though

They need a RW the same way a quadriplegic needs a hemorrhoid removed. Sounds cute and all, but something solid up the center would actually be useful.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

It has made acquiring Eichel ~5 mil per year more difficult from a salary cap perspective. And what did we gain? A stanley cup winning 3rd liner.



This is the perfect move to make for a team who doesn't want to make the 2nd round of the playoffs and also doesn't want to draft Shane Wright or Connor Bedard.

Coleman is a solid second line winger, which is something the Flames need with or without Jack Eichel. And there was never any chance that this team would be bad enough to draft Wright or Bedard.

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[PaperBagger'14]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Coleman is a solid second line winger, which is something the Flames need with or without Jack Eichel. And there was never any chance that this team would be bad enough to draft Wright or Bedard.

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I mean, he just won 2 cups as a 3rd line winger so I'm more inclined to think he should be playing there instead of further up the line up.

And if we can't land Eichel, then it should be full tank mode, sell everything for picks and burn it down. This is the perfect time to rebuild right now with 2 exceptional players in back to back drafts. I fully expect us to draft 12th overall both years, miss the playoffs and get some milquetoast Zary/Pelletier level prospects.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

I mean, he just won 2 cups as a 3rd line winger so I'm more inclined to think he should be playing there instead of further up the line up.

Great. Run down to Walmart and buy us a couple of top-six wingers then, will you? I'm sure it's just that easy.

And if we can't land Eichel, then it should be full tank mode, sell everything for picks and burn it down. This is the perfect time to rebuild right now with 2 exceptional players in back to back drafts.

You're not going to out-tank Buffalo or Arizona. I've got a pretty shrewd idea where those two exceptional players are likely to end up. And when you don't get them, then where's your rebuild?

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

I mean, he just won 2 cups as a 3rd line winger so I'm more inclined to think he should be playing there instead of further up the line up.

And if we can't land Eichel, then it should be full tank mode, sell everything for picks and burn it down. This is the perfect time to rebuild right now with 2 exceptional players in back to back drafts. I fully expect us to draft 12th overall both years, miss the playoffs and get some milquetoast Zary/Pelletier level prospects.

To be fair he was on the 3rd line of that Lightning team that basically had an elite top line, two 2nd lines and a really good checking line. Goodrow - Gourde - Coleman was a gigantic reason why that team was successful and calling them a 3rd line and in turn Coleman a 3rd line player is incorrect IMO and this is coming from someone who was skeptical of the signing before and after it happened.

In the days since the signing, after doing more reading on the player I’ve become happier about the signing and definitely pencil Coleman into our top 6 for sure.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

I mean, he just won 2 cups as a 3rd line winger so I'm more inclined to think he should be playing there instead of further up the line up.

And if we can't land Eichel, then it should be full tank mode, sell everything for picks and burn it down. This is the perfect time to rebuild right now with 2 exceptional players in back to back drafts. I fully expect us to draft 12th overall both years, miss the playoffs and get some milquetoast Zary/Pelletier level prospects.

Do you really want to watch a last place team for 5 years? I don’t.

Do you think the owners want to spend hundreds of millions of dollars per season to watch it? I bet that answer is also no.

Even with your tank plan you still technically have a 3% chance of getting the player you want in the draft.

You’re basically wanting to be the Oilers when it comes down to it. Or Buffalo. Being the worst doesn’t guarantee you any sort of future beyond being the worst for an extended period of time.

[Heavy Jack]

Also to the thought of tanking/rebuild in hopes of getting a Wright or Bedard… it’s called a lottery for a reason! I’d rather give this near completed ‘rebuild’ that Treliving started near a decade ago a true shot with a coach like Sutter and a elite talent like Eichel before throwing in the towel on what is generally a solid lineup that has woefully underachieved for coaches that don’t have near the same pedigree that Sutter brings with him.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

The way he skates to the net reminds me of Shean Donovan. Better hands and shot, not as fast, but that hunger to just get to the net as fast as he can in the most direct route possible.

Shean Donovan might have been a little faster, but yeah no hands. Blake also seems to have a knack for getting to open spaces.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

It has made acquiring Eichel ~5 mil per year more difficult from a salary cap perspective. And what did we gain? A stanley cup winning 3rd liner.

This is the perfect move to make for a team who doesn't want to make the 2nd round of the playoffs and also doesn't want to draft Shane Wright or Connor Bedard.

By the same token, if we didn't acquire Blake and missed out on Eichel then what? Blake has some skills and experience and should be good in the locker room. Flames will have to trade out a player to acquire Eichel so that shouldn't be a concern.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by PaperBagger'14

I mean, he just won 2 cups as a 3rd line winger so I'm more inclined to think he should be playing there instead of further up the line up.

You should probably take the time to read the thread before posting this nonsense...

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

Ended up diving deeper into Coleman after seeing so many tantrums between here and HFFlames. Especially seeing lots of people comparing this to Brouwer/Neal.



Whereas those deals were immediately crucified by the analytics community, Coleman is beloved by the analytics community for how incredibly well he drives both offense and defense. Comparing him to those 2 atrocities just goes to show some know absolutely nothing about him. He's MUCH closer to a Michael Frolik then those two plugs.



Coleman was one of, if not my top UFA forward target (minus Landeskog), and here's why:



Coleman is a legitimate top 6 forward who not only produces 5v5 offense at an excellent rate, but is elite defensively. He's a true top 6 two-way forward.



On Tampa Bay at 5v5, Coleman produced, among forwards:

- 0.80 goals per 60 (5th)

- 1.24 assists per 60 (3rd)

- 2.04 points per 60 (4th)



Chance wise, individually, he produced:

- 0.68 ixGF/60 (4th)

- 8.89 iSCF/60 (2nd)

- 3.82 iHDCF/60 (3rd)



He also produced 1.07 drawn penalties per 60 (3rd)



Analytically, he was absolutely dominant:



Offensively (positive is good):

- 5.79 Rel CF/60 (3rd)

- 6.84 Rel FF/60 (2nd)

- 6.7 Rel SF/60 (2nd)

- 0.39 Rel xGF/60 (1st)

- 3.49 Rel SCF/60 (2nd)

- 2.47 Rel HDCF/60 (3rd)



Defensively (negative is good):

- -3.54 Rel CA/60 (2nd)

- -2.89 Rel FA/60 (2nd)

- -2.15 Rel SA/60 (2nd)

- -0.18 Rel xGA/60 (2nd)

- -2.21 Rel SCA/60 (1st)

- -1.01 Rel HDCA/60 (3rd)



Overall (positive is good):

- 4.46 Rel CF% (2nd)

- 5.96 Rel FF% (1st)

- 7.23 Rel SF% (1st)

- 6.44 Rel xGF% (1st)

- 5.30 Rel SCF% (2nd)

- 8.36 Rel HDCF% (2nd)



All despite having the 3rd lowest Offensize Zone Start % (48.76%).



To recap, Coleman was:

- a top 5 Tampa forward in terms of 5v5 offense rates

- a top 4 Tampa forward in terms of individual chance creation

- a top 3 Tampa forward in terms of driving offense

- a top 3 Tampa forward in terms of driving defense

- a top 2 Tampa forward in terms of overall driving ability



On a back-to-back Stanley Cup winning team, Coleman was incredibly effective at 5v5 and one of Tampa Bay's very best 5v5 forwards, both offensively AND defensively.



$4.9M is more than okay for what he brings.



Is the term a year or two longer than I hoped? Yes, but it's very likely that he lives up to his contract (or quite possibly even outperforms it) for the first 3-4 (maybe 5) years.



For those of you that like charts:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1420414672952508416

https://twitter.com/user/status/1420418873535389697



Final verdict: I love me some Blake Coleman

Blake Coleman can play.


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[sa226]

I'm just legitimately surprised that he signed here. I don't subscribe to the "Nobody wants to play here, especially Americans" mantra. I'm just legitimately surprised.

Players wait years for UFA status, he apparently was building a house in Texas, spent a good chunk on a cup winning team in Tampa, and he chooses Calgary? Kinda cool.

With the deeper dive into the type of valuable player he is, I would have pegged him as a top 5 massive overpay in free agency But 4.9 AAV is, quite reasonable for a 2 way top 6 forward.

He must have had multiple offers. Maybe it was term that tipped the scales for Calgary.

Would be interesting to know what made him want to sign in Calgary. Especially with 2 cups under his belt.

[iloveicedhockey]

The supportive fanbase, obvs.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by sa226

I'm just legitimately surprised that he signed here. I don't subscribe to the "Nobody wants to play here, especially Americans" mantra. I'm just legitimately surprised.

Players wait years for UFA status, he apparently was building a house in Texas, spent a good chunk on a cup winning team in Tampa, and he chooses Calgary? Kinda cool.

With the deeper dive into the type of valuable player he is, I would have pegged him as a top 5 massive overpay in free agency But 4.9 AAV is, quite reasonable for a 2 way top 6 forward.

He must have had multiple offers. Maybe it was term that tipped the scales for Calgary.

Would be interesting to know what made him want to sign in Calgary. Especially with 2 cups under his belt.

He did mention that he and his wife like the "quieter life" and he felt Calgary offers that more than a lot of other destinations.

I was also very surprised he picked the Flames.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by sa226

I'm just legitimately surprised that he signed here. I don't subscribe to the "Nobody wants to play here, especially Americans" mantra. I'm just legitimately surprised.

Players wait years for UFA status, he apparently was building a house in Texas, spent a good chunk on a cup winning team in Tampa, and he chooses Calgary? Kinda cool.

With the deeper dive into the type of valuable player he is, I would have pegged him as a top 5 massive overpay in free agency But 4.9 AAV is, quite reasonable for a 2 way top 6 forward.

He must have had multiple offers. Maybe it was term that tipped the scales for Calgary.

Would be interesting to know what made him want to sign in Calgary. Especially with 2 cups under his belt.

It sounds like the slower, small city vibe was in their comfort level and, for a young family, Calgary is a very attractive city and has always been a reason cited for people coming/staying here. I can imagine Tampa (and Dallas) has a pretty rowdy scene comparatively.

Maybe they just thought the idea of living in a different country for a while sounds cool, maybe get their kids dual citizenship.

Plus yeah it was probably the best contract offer, term wise. Seems like he could be a bit sleeper great signing looking at those metrics. Passes the eye test too, found myself enjoying his play throughout the playoffs.