[Signing] Flames sign Blake Coleman (6 years, $4.9m AAV)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Domoic

I understand math is hard for you. Happens to many of the aged.

Maybe this will help you:

4 x 6 = 24 < 6 x 4.9 = 29.4

Hall < Coleman

Thoughts and prayers...

So if the Flames signed Coleman at 1 year, $14M, that means he’s paid $10M less than Hall, so all good, right?

[Domoic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

So if the Flames signed Coleman at 1 year, $14M, that means he’s paid $10M less than Hall, so all good, right?

Ahhh, CP never fails to impress.

Congrats on keeping the CP culture alive!

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Domoic

Ahhh, CP never fails to impress.

Congrats on keeping the CP culture alive!

You're the one who can't understand that Hall is making more money per year than Coleman, with a bigger cap hit, and those are the two numbers that count.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Domoic

Ahhh, CP never fails to impress.

Congrats on keeping the CP culture alive!

There is nothing funnier than a moron strolling around with completely unearned confidence.

I should know.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by 868904

I don't think people will complain if he puts up 30 goals and 60 points for the first 4 years of this contract. Cause it probably means he'll still put up 20 goals and 40 points that 5th year.

Hoping for the best with this player but to think a guy who's never scored more than 22 goals or more than 17 assists is all of a sudden gonna get 30 goals and 60 points is dreaming. Even last year extrapolates to 46 points in an 82 game season.

Even using p/60 and 15 min average per game his best year at 2.2 p/60 gives him 45 points.

20 goals 20 assists seems a more realistic target for his best years.

[868904]

Originally Posted by chedder

Hoping for the best with this player but to think a guy who's never scored more than 22 goals or more than 17 assists is all of a sudden gonna get 30 goals and 60 points is dreaming. Even last year extrapolates to 46 points in an 82 game season.

Even using p/60 and 15 min average per game his best year at 2.2 p/60 gives him 45 points.

20 goals 20 assists seems a more realistic target for his best years.

I was just replying to the other post. I'm not expecting Coleman to produce those numbers.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Nothing wrong with the player, but he's about to experience a whole new level of dislike over this contract. Even if he puts up 30 goals and 60 points for 4 years, there will be people hating the last years of the contract.

I'm not crazy about this, but I'm not bent out of shape either as I think he does add something to the team. So long as he's sort of healthy you should be able to move the last 2 years if you eat 50% of the salary. Advanced stats seem to suggest that there is something to his game.

It's a bit like the Frolik signing in that he was a good player for 3 of the years, and still okay in the 4th. He was a bit pricey at the time, but still did enough in those years that it wasn't out of line. As much as we all seem to think Flat Cap = massive rollback it doesn't. When the Flames signed Frolik in 2015, that cap for that year was projected to be 71 million. Guess what take his 4.3 salary and multiply it by 81.5/71...it's 4.9 million. So really it's similar to that contract, but one extra year.

Very similar to the Frolik deal. It's a slightly higher percentage of the cap, but not by much. It is a year longer and Coleman is 2 years older than Frolik was.

Frolik was a half a point a game player in his two years in Winnipeg. Coleman was better than a half a point a game player in his last two seasons in New Jersey and Tampa.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by 868904

I was just replying to the other post. I'm not expecting Coleman to produce those numbers.

Oops. Didn't read what you were responding to. Damn attention span.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Domoic

Ahhh, CP never fails to impress.

Congrats on keeping the CP culture alive!

Just using your own logic (such that it is).

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Considering his speed, tenacity, and endless motor, what do people think about putting him with Gaudreau and Monahan?

Gaudreau - Monahan - Coleman
Tkachuk - Lindholm - Mangiapane
Dube - Backlund - Pitlick

I know some people will say 'he isn't a 1st liner', but it isn't about that, it's about creating lines that work. Adding energy to Gaudreau and Monahan might be just the tonic they need. And then there is good balance with the Lindholm line as well. Then the 3rd line is also solid.

More size, more speed, more tenacity. Would still like to get a RW, but this is a solid lineup for Mr Sutter to work with

I like it, really reminds me of Monahan/Gaudreau/Ferlund. Monahan and Gaudreau are highly effective paired with a speedy RW who backs the D in. Lindholm/Tkachuk/Mangi look like a 1A line that can distribute the goal scoring more evenly so opponents can’t key on one line. That 3rd line looks like a great shut down line that can still turn the puck up the ice the other way, and it finally properly slots Backlund. Now just need someone to join Lucic and Ruzycka on the 4th line.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

I like it, really reminds me of Monahan/Gaudreau/Ferlund. Monahan and Gaudreau are highly effective paired with a speedy RW who backs the D in. Lindholm/Tkachuk/Mangi look like a 1A line that can distribute the goal scoring more evenly so opponents can’t key on one line. That 3rd line looks like a great shut down line that can still turn the puck up the ice the other way, and it finally properly slots Backlund. Now just need someone to join Lucic and Ruzycka on the 4th line.

Well, they have Ritchie for the 4th (for rough games) and Gawdin/Phillips or maybe even Pelletier for more uptempo games.

[Canada 02]

"one of the most complete two-way players in the game"
"top-end PK in the game"
are their metric to show this?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by 868904

I was just replying to the other post. I'm not expecting Coleman to produce those numbers.

Michael backlund had a surge in points when he started getting points on the pp. I’m not expecting 60 points or 30 goals either but 25 and 50 is very possible

[CaptainCrunch]

From the Captain's perspective, I like the player and what he brings, don't really care about the term as 6 years from now the poor Captain might have departed this mortal coil.

[robertsfanatic]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Mangiapane - Monahan - Coleman

I really hope this happens, I think this line would be lethal.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Domoic

I understand math is hard for you. Happens to many of the aged.

Maybe this will help you:

4 x 6 = 24 < 6 x 4.9 = 29.4

Hall < Coleman

Thoughts and prayers...

Salary cap is yearly pal...AAV is what matters

By your dumb logic Hall went from an 8M player to a 24M player. Wow nice raise

[AustinL_NHL]

Ended up diving deeper into Coleman after seeing so many tantrums between here and HFFlames. Especially seeing lots of people comparing this to Brouwer/Neal.

Whereas those deals were immediately crucified by the analytics community, Coleman is beloved by the analytics community for how incredibly well he drives both offense and defense. Comparing him to those 2 atrocities just goes to show some know absolutely nothing about him. He's MUCH closer to a Michael Frolik then those two plugs.

Coleman was one of, if not my top UFA forward target (minus Landeskog), and here's why:

Coleman is a legitimate top 6 forward who not only produces 5v5 offense at an excellent rate, but is elite defensively. He's a true top 6 two-way forward.

On Tampa Bay at 5v5, Coleman produced, among forwards:
- 0.80 goals per 60 (5th)
- 1.24 assists per 60 (3rd)
- 2.04 points per 60 (4th)

Chance wise, individually, he produced:
- 0.68 ixGF/60 (4th)
- 8.89 iSCF/60 (2nd)
- 3.82 iHDCF/60 (3rd)

He also produced 1.07 drawn penalties per 60 (3rd)

Analytically, he was absolutely dominant:

Offensively (positive is good):
- 5.79 Rel CF/60 (3rd)
- 6.84 Rel FF/60 (2nd)
- 6.7 Rel SF/60 (2nd)
- 0.39 Rel xGF/60 (1st)
- 3.49 Rel SCF/60 (2nd)
- 2.47 Rel HDCF/60 (3rd)

Defensively (negative is good):
- -3.54 Rel CA/60 (2nd)
- -2.89 Rel FA/60 (2nd)
- -2.15 Rel SA/60 (2nd)
- -0.18 Rel xGA/60 (2nd)
- -2.21 Rel SCA/60 (1st)
- -1.01 Rel HDCA/60 (3rd)

Overall (positive is good):
- 4.46 Rel CF% (2nd)
- 5.96 Rel FF% (1st)
- 7.23 Rel SF% (1st)
- 6.44 Rel xGF% (1st)
- 5.30 Rel SCF% (2nd)
- 8.36 Rel HDCF% (2nd)

All despite having the 3rd lowest Offensize Zone Start % (48.76%).

To recap, Coleman was:
- a top 5 Tampa forward in terms of 5v5 offense rates
- a top 4 Tampa forward in terms of individual chance creation
- a top 3 Tampa forward in terms of driving offense
- a top 3 Tampa forward in terms of driving defense
- a top 2 Tampa forward in terms of overall driving ability

On a back-to-back Stanley Cup winning team, Coleman was incredibly effective at 5v5 and one of Tampa Bay's very best 5v5 forwards, both offensively AND defensively.

$4.9M is more than okay for what he brings.

Is the term a year or two longer than I hoped? Yes, but it's very likely that he lives up to his contract (or quite possibly even outperforms it) for the first 3-4 (maybe 5) years.

For those of you that like charts:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1420414672952508416

https://twitter.com/user/status/1420418873535389697

Final verdict: I love me some Blake Coleman

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

From the Captain's perspective, I like the player and what he brings, don't really care about the term as 6 years from now the poor Captain might have departed this mortal coil.

You’re going into space with Elon Musk?

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

Ended up diving deeper into Coleman after seeing so many tantrums between here and HFFlames. Especially seeing lots of people comparing this to Brouwer/Neal.

Whereas those deals were immediately crucified by the analytics community, Coleman is beloved by the analytics community for how incredibly well he drives both offense and defense. Comparing him to those 2 atrocities just goes to show some know absolutely nothing about him. He's MUCH closer to a Michael Frolik then those two plugs.

Coleman was one of, if not my top UFA forward target (minus Landeskog), and here's why:

Coleman is a legitimate top 6 forward who not only produces 5v5 offense at an excellent rate, but is elite defensively. He's a true top 6 two-way forward.

On Tampa Bay at 5v5, Coleman produced, among forwards:
- 0.80 goals per 60 (5th)
- 1.24 assists per 60 (3rd)
- 2.04 points per 60 (4th)

Chance wise, individually, he produced:
- 0.68 ixGF/60 (4th)
- 8.89 iSCF/60 (2nd)
- 3.82 iHDCF/60 (3rd)

He also produced 1.07 drawn penalties per 60 (3rd)

Analytically, he was absolutely dominant:

Offensively (positive is good):
- 5.79 Rel CF/60 (3rd)
- 6.84 Rel FF/60 (2nd)
- 6.7 Rel SF/60 (2nd)
- 0.39 Rel xGF/60 (1st)
- 3.49 Rel SCF/60 (2nd)
- 2.47 Rel HDCF/60 (3rd)

Defensively (negative is good):
- -3.54 Rel CA/60 (2nd)
- -2.89 Rel FA/60 (2nd)
- -2.15 Rel SA/60 (2nd)
- -0.18 Rel xGA/60 (2nd)
- -2.21 Rel SCA/60 (1st)
- -1.01 Rel HDCA/60 (3rd)

Overall (positive is good):
- 4.46 Rel CF% (2nd)
- 5.96 Rel FF% (1st)
- 7.23 Rel SF% (1st)
- 6.44 Rel xGF% (1st)
- 5.30 Rel SCF% (2nd)
- 8.36 Rel HDCF% (2nd)

All despite having the 3rd lowest Offensize Zone Start % (48.76%).

To recap, Coleman was:
- a top 5 Tampa forward in terms of 5v5 offense rates
- a top 4 Tampa forward in terms of individual chance creation
- a top 3 Tampa forward in terms of driving offense
- a top 3 Tampa forward in terms of driving defense
- a top 2 Tampa forward in terms of overall driving ability

On a back-to-back Stanley Cup winning team, Coleman was incredibly effective at 5v5 and one of Tampa Bay's very best 5v5 forwards, both offensively AND defensively.

$4.9M is more than okay for what he brings.

Is the term a year or two longer than I hoped? Yes, but it's very likely that he lives up to his contract (or quite possibly even outperforms it) for the first 3-4 (maybe 5) years.

For those of you that like charts:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1420414672952508416

https://twitter.com/user/status/1420418873535389697

Final verdict: I love me some Blake Coleman

You’re preaching to the choir with me. But I loved this post.

[Wood]

Thanks for the post Austin. It really puts it all together cleanly

I really feel like Coleman and Mangiapane are the perfect linemates, wether it's Backlund, Monahan or Lindholm between them I have high hopes

In my ideal world the lines end up being:

Gaudreau - Eichel - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Lindholm - Coleman
Pitlick - Backlund - Dube
Lucic - Lewis - Ritchie

Bottom line interchangeable with call-ups like Gawdin, Phillips, Ruzicka etc.