Good. Let him go and move on. Keep your known assets and get better with the cap space available.
Agreed, holding onto Gio also carries the potential risk of injury, which becomes more likely with age, during the season negating any potential return at the TDL.
But it's not. We'll use next draft as an example, but with the same result for the Flames (picking 12th). So we trade the 44th pick in this draft for Giordano to not get picked. We sit on him for a year and hope we can get a 1st out of him at the deadline if he performs, which is a complete unknown. If Giordano has another year like this past one, he may only get you a 2nd or 3rd, or maybe a combination of lesser picks from a contender. That means likely a pick in the 25-32 range at best, or 57th or later if he doesn't perform. While we may pickup 12-19 spots in the draft, for having the honor of having $6.75M count against our cap. Are those spots worth $6.75M? What happens if Gio continues his trip down Old Man river and we only get a 2nd at the deadline? We would actually have dropped 13 or more spots, just to protect an aging player. There is risk associated with giving up assets to protect that 38 year old player. Understand both sides of the risk. Personally, I don't see there being any way the Flames should expend assets to protect a player. Expend assets to guarantee a negative asset leaves town, sure. But do NOT spend resources on keeping a player that may be about to fall off the proverbial cliff.
I'm not saying do it, but yes such a trade would carry inherent risks.
I'd probably give up a 3rd and hope Gio can get you a 2nd. At that point, Seattle probably says no.
But it's not. We'll use next draft as an example, but with the same result for the Flames (picking 12th). So we trade the 44th pick in this draft for Giordano to not get picked. We sit on him for a year and hope we can get a 1st out of him at the deadline if he performs, which is a complete unknown. If Giordano has another year like this past one, he may only get you a 2nd or 3rd, or maybe a combination of lesser picks from a contender. That means likely a pick in the 25-32 range at best, or 57th or later if he doesn't perform. While we may pickup 12-19 spots in the draft, for having the honor of having $6.75M count against our cap. Are those spots worth $6.75M? What happens if Gio continues his trip down Old Man river and we only get a 2nd at the deadline? We would actually have dropped 13 or more spots, just to protect an aging player. There is risk associated with giving up assets to protect that 38 year old player. Understand both sides of the risk. Personally, I don't see there being any way the Flames should expend assets to protect a player. Expend assets to guarantee a negative asset leaves town, sure. But do NOT spend resources on keeping a player that may be about to fall off the proverbial cliff.
Well, it’s all about the deal isn’t it? What if all it costs is the Edmonton 3rd? Even TBL’s second is better than that. I generally hate expansion deals - the win-wins are pretty rare. But if Seattle takes him and gets a first, it would be pretty bitter. Especially if the Flames squander the cap space.
Seattle would be wise to stock up on defencemen and perhaps flip a few for other assets. Depth defencemen are more valuable a trade commodity than depth forwards (arguably).
Treliving may be able to pick up a surplus rearguard from Seattle that somewhat mitigates the loss of of a Giordano.
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Seattle would be wise to stock up on defencemen and perhaps flip a few for other assets. Depth defencemen are more valuable a trade commodity than depth forwards (arguably).
Treliving may be able to pick up a surplus rearguard from Seattle that somewhat mitigates the loss of of a Giordano.
I've been saying this for a while as well. Follows the Vegas model to some extent.
If Seattle picks 9 or so defensemen, presumably all of the 4/5 quality, it creates a hole for 9 or so teams which will at least kick tires on a trade for picks or younger players. The Flames could be easily one of those teams.
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O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
I think it is funny that some people think Seattle will sign a UFA who is 50-50 to stay in the league instead of taking the proven top 4 Dman who has a single year left on his deal.
Gio @ 50% retained will guaranteed return more assets in a deal for Seattle than Derek Ryan will.
The fact Gio comes with just the single year left has me thinking he is truly the only target that makes sense unless Francis thinks there is really something there in Phillips or Kylington.
I do not think Seattle is thinking of flipping assets at the deadline, I think they are wanting to make the playoffs just like everyone else. I think it is funny that people think they will go for assets they can flip at the deadline.
Truth is no one really knows what they are going to do. Yes, Vegas was/is an outlier but who says Seattle does not try and replicate.
Sign a UFA that is 50-50 to stay in league cause he is a home town guy ... sounds very familiar, wonder if that has happened before, oh yeah, Vegas did that exact thing with England.
Not to mention that Ryan has good 'fancy stats' which iirc Seattle values.
I think Seattle is going to be playing many games, even if they are targeting Ryan, they will be talking with BT about what if we were to take Gio and immediately flip (more worried about this than a deadline flip) him to try and get additional assets out of BT.
I do not think Seattle is thinking of flipping assets at the deadline, I think they are wanting to make the playoffs just like everyone else. I think it is funny that people think they will go for assets they can flip at the deadline.
Truth is no one really knows what they are going to do. Yes, Vegas was/is an outlier but who says Seattle does not try and replicate.
Sign a UFA that is 50-50 to stay in league cause he is a home town guy ... sounds very familiar, wonder if that has happened before, oh yeah, Vegas did that exact thing with England.
Not to mention that Ryan has good 'fancy stats' which iirc Seattle values.
I think Seattle is going to be playing many games, even if they are targeting Ryan, they will be talking with BT about what if we were to take Gio and immediately flip (more worried about this than a deadline flip) him to try and get additional assets out of BT.
It will be interesting however it shakes out.
Well if they want to make the playoffs as you think then Gio is a slam dunk pick for them I would think. 4th line center isn't going to move the needle that much but a 1st or 2nd pairing defenseman with leadership intangibles will. Ryan is UFA and it's not like there will be teams lining up to sign him and they will have little issue signing him as a free agent.
I do not think Seattle is thinking of flipping assets at the deadline, I think they are wanting to make the playoffs just like everyone else. I think it is funny that people think they will go for assets they can flip at the deadline.
Truth is no one really knows what they are going to do. Yes, Vegas was/is an outlier but who says Seattle does not try and replicate.
Sign a UFA that is 50-50 to stay in league cause he is a home town guy ... sounds very familiar, wonder if that has happened before, oh yeah, Vegas did that exact thing with England.
Not to mention that Ryan has good 'fancy stats' which iirc Seattle values.
I think Seattle is going to be playing many games, even if they are targeting Ryan, they will be talking with BT about what if we were to take Gio and immediately flip (more worried about this than a deadline flip) him to try and get additional assets out of BT.
It will be interesting however it shakes out.
Derek Ryan is from Spokane not Seattle so not really a home town guy. That would be like calling someone from Golden BC a Vancouver local. Why take him as an expansion pick when he can be signed for a minimum salary in addition to getting Gio?
If Seattle wants to make the playoffs then they absolutely take Gio but I think they are preparing to build it slower like most expansion teams. Either way he makes way more sense than Derek Ryan.
Gio has far more impressive fancy stats than Ryan so another point that does nothing to strengthen that argument. If the speculation is true that they are going to sign Dougie then another check mark for Gio who had played on a pairing with Dougie for 2 years and they were regarded as the best pair in the league when they were together. Yes Gio had gotten 3 years older but also won a Norris in the time since.
The posters that do not think they will take Gio must be the same that do not think Gio is a top 4 Dman anymore. Gio was arguably the best Dman on the team after the coaching change and gives Seattle exactly what they need. A highly respected star player who they have little commitment to do either keep him for a run or move him either right away or at the deadline if the season isn’t as fortunate as Vegas
That is one way to change the leadership and cap space.
You can maybe give Tkachuk the C then, might help with the contract situation he is in to commit to him that way and getting him into a longer term deal at a fair price.
I do not think Seattle is thinking of flipping assets at the deadline, I think they are wanting to make the playoffs just like everyone else. I think it is funny that people think they will go for assets they can flip at the deadline.
Truth is no one really knows what they are going to do. Yes, Vegas was/is an outlier but who says Seattle does not try and replicate.
Sign a UFA that is 50-50 to stay in league cause he is a home town guy ... sounds very familiar, wonder if that has happened before, oh yeah, Vegas did that exact thing with England.
Not to mention that Ryan has good 'fancy stats' which iirc Seattle values.
I think Seattle is going to be playing many games, even if they are targeting Ryan, they will be talking with BT about what if we were to take Gio and immediately flip (more worried about this than a deadline flip) him to try and get additional assets out of BT.
It will be interesting however it shakes out.
Flames are in a lose-lose situation. They should have dealt with this last year.
In a perfect world we would all be chill about who Seattle is taking because we already got rid of valuable assets when it was clear last season was a bust. Gio would have been a top deadline player with some salary retained. Now we lose him for nothing.
BT should be sitting on a boatload of picks now that he could draft players with or deal as currency.
The only way they should be coughing up an asset to protect Giordano is if that asset leads to Seattle taking a bad contract off their hands. A 2022 2nd should have them take either Lucic or Backlund with their pick.
LOL @ Lucic and Backlund in the same sentence as bad contracts. One is ~$500k overpaid, the other is ~$3M overpaid.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
If Gio is there he will be taken unless there is a side deal
Disagree.
Spoiler!
No guarantee SEA takes Gio even if he's exposed. The impression is that they want to draft the min. possible salary and then extort more value in trades.
They need to draft 48.9M in AAV. Assuming 20 guys average around 1M, that means they need to draft a surplus of ~$29M.
TBL: McDonagh/Cernak, or I wouldn't be surprised if they offered a Gourde+T Johnson package
COL: need to do something about their 4 D...you can probably pencil $4M+ from them (maybe they go 4-4 and expose Kadri or Donskoi)
MIN: Dumba/Hartman/Rask/Talbot - probably some $$$ one way or the other
MTL: Chiarot/Edmundson...maybe even Byron (or Jake Allen)
NAS: They might go 4-4 and maybe even expose a Duchene or Johansen. (Kunin, Arvidsson, Forsberg...)
PIT: McCann/Rust/Matheson
Other $$$$ D:
Risto/C Miller
Gio
Skjei/Gardiner or Bean (pending RFA...maybe CAR gets creative to try to keep him)
Zadorov/De Haan, though ELC Riley Stillman may be attractive
I suppose my point is that SEA won't have much trouble drafting that surplus $29M, especially with defensemen (lots of LD at that). It's hard to play out the scenario without knowing the actual protection lists, or knowing how coveted certain prospects might be on these teams that have established $$$ players.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geeoff
I wonder if the Flames will even qualify Kylington. Capfriendly says he is arbitration eligible. I don't think he is in the Flames plans TBH
Zero risk in qualifying him IMO; he's not getting a raise out of arbitration, certainly not $1M+.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Demetric
I do not think Seattle is thinking of flipping assets at the deadline, I think they are wanting to make the playoffs just like everyone else. I think it is funny that people think they will go for assets they can flip at the deadline.
Truth is no one really knows what they are going to do. Yes, Vegas was/is an outlier but who says Seattle does not try and replicate.
Sign a UFA that is 50-50 to stay in league cause he is a home town guy ... sounds very familiar, wonder if that has happened before, oh yeah, Vegas did that exact thing with England.
Not to mention that Ryan has good 'fancy stats' which iirc Seattle values.
I think Seattle is going to be playing many games, even if they are targeting Ryan, they will be talking with BT about what if we were to take Gio and immediately flip (more worried about this than a deadline flip) him to try and get additional assets out of BT.
It will be interesting however it shakes out.
I suspect SEA will want to keep their options as open as possible. Trying to compete immediately, but with assets that serve a Plan B of being valuable for the next few TDLs.
I do wonder what the UFA market is like for Ryan. The Flames need to sign at least one plug to meet exposure requirements (probably Ritchie), but maybe they try to sign Ryan in advance, too, knowing that he might get picked.
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I have a hard time seeing that. I could not imagine such a horrible trade where the Flames come out of a Tkachuk deal with one of those Coyotes as the centerpiece. Not a fan of any of those players for Gaudreau either but for Monahan I can see it.
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His QO is barely above league minimum and I doubt they'd be afraid of any arbitration ruling. I'd be very surprised if he isn't qualified.
Yeah, the only way he chooses arbitration is if he wants to guarantee he has a contract to start the season. It won’t be about money.
I personally think Kylington has a lot of NHL potential and he is similar to a lot of players that other teams already have as full time players. He may have been redundant for most teams, but Seattle has no players, so I can see them giving him a chance. He could easily be the defenseman version of William Karlsson for Seattle. He certainly has a longer career ahead of him than Giordano and probably more upside than whatever Gio would get at the trade deadline (I suspect a 2nd round pick, or at least substantially less than what we got for Bouwmeester).
Gio took a pretty big step back last season and is likely to take another one next season. I think it’s a better strategy to pick an asset with upside than one who may or may not get you something better at the trade deadline. Seattle will have a lot of other veterans and free agents to pick from other than Giordano, many of which are likely to have more value.
Kylington passing waivers last season doesn’t mean a lot. Many players passed waivers last season that would normally get picked up.
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Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 07-06-2021 at 02:44 PM.
Kylington passing waivers last season doesn’t mean a lot. Many players passed waivers last season that would normally get picked up.
How many that were making pretty much league minimum? I understand guys like Henrique and Ryan where teams literally couldn’t fit them, but no one trying Kylington out says a lot about he is perceived league wide at this point. It would have been a zero risk pickup and no one was tempted
Mete is similar and was claimed by at least one team, Djoos, Juulsen, Forsling, Sbisa etc were all claimed the same day so waivers was active
I think it’s just time to accept that it’s a total long shot that Francis will want Kylington considering what he will have available (countless young LHD) to choose from. Plus the odds he just ends up on waivers again are pretty high, he clearly isn’t in our long term plans
