Exactly. If they wanted to upgrade on nuge via free agency it probably cost them $9 mil for a player that isn’t a sure fire upgrade.
Nuge could have signed 2 years for league min and people would still say bad deal not enough term they won’t be good until that contract expires anyways. This is a good deal for them and could set the oilers up this off season and moving forward. Their next moves could be huge for them. I’m really hoping Holland screws the next move up
Meah. This was the sentiment several years ago when Chia, Todd, and Lucic rode into town.
Meah. This was the sentiment several years ago when Chia, Todd, and Lucic rode into town.
Lucic signed for more money when the salary cap was lower. Not suggesting nuge is a star. I think he’s overrated but hard to say this deal isn’t good for at least the next 4 to 5 years.
I saw someone make the comparison to Turris. Surprisingly the stats (RNH scored more in his early years) at similar mid career ages and long term contract AAV are fairly similar. Turris was a 6M AAV but he was signed under a rapidly rising cap.
Turris was bought out after 2 years of a 6 year deal and is terrible now. Hopefully this deal goes the same way!
Put me in the camp that this deal will backfire rather soon. Sure, he'll be putting up points in the regular season especially if he gets time with McDavid and he'll always cash in on the PP but he's nothing in the playoffs. And seems quite ok with losing. Not a guy you want to boat achor with for eight years.
Exactly. If they wanted to upgrade on nuge via free agency it probably cost them $9 mil for a player that isn’t a sure fire upgrade.
Nuge could have signed 2 years for league min and people would still say bad deal not enough term they won’t be good until that contract expires anyways. This is a good deal for them and could set the oilers up this off season and moving forward. Their next moves could be huge for them. I’m really hoping Holland screws the next move up
No it wouldn't unless you think Monahan is a $9 million player. His career scoring rate trails Sean Monahan. We think Tkachuk will be overpaid at $9 million and he's twice the player RNH is. They got him at a million a season discount but but paid handsomely offering max term.
No it wouldn't unless you think Monahan is a $9 million player. His career scoring rate trails Sean Monahan. We think Tkachuk will be overpaid at $9 million and he's twice the player RNH is. They got him at a million a season discount but but paid handsomely offering max term.
Are they getting a Krejci or Saad or Palmieri for $5M? I bet they sign in that range, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't have needed 30% more to go to EDM.
Seems like most of the "sides" in this 10 page argument are right to be honest.
* Nugent Hopkins gave the Oilers a home town discount on the AAV
* At 28 there's some risk on the last 3-5 years
* It would have been more expensive to lose him and sign someone else
* His numbers are tumbling and he's pretty reliant on the PP and star linemates
* Edmonton is no good
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Seems like most of the "sides" in this 10 page argument are right to be honest.
* Nugent Hopkins gave the Oilers a home town discount on the AAV
* At 28 there's some risk on the last 3-5 years
* It would have been more expensive to lose him and sign someone else
* His numbers are tumbling and he's pretty reliant on the PP and star linemates
* Edmonton is no good
And likes having April to September off.
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Exactly. If they wanted to upgrade on nuge via free agency it probably cost them $9 mil for a player that isn’t a sure fire upgrade.
Nuge could have signed 2 years for league min and people would still say bad deal not enough term they won’t be good until that contract expires anyways. This is a good deal for them and could set the oilers up this off season and moving forward. Their next moves could be huge for them. I’m really hoping Holland screws the next move up
The only current UFAs who made even close to that amount in their last contract are Ovechkin, Geltzlaf and Hall.
On the other hand Brandon Saad would be a clear upgrade and he made $6M in his last contract. He might make $7M next time out. Landeskog would be an upgrade, he made $5.5 and he will get more, but not $3.5 more. Reinhart won't be getting $9M. Johannson won't. Palmieri won't.
He is the only player on the Oilers not named McD or Drai that would also be a top 6 forward on most teams in the NHL, so it’s a good deal for them. I would have rather them lose him and have to sign someone for more. Of course, there would have also been the chance that whomever they signed would actually help more.
RNH is a good player, but we already know what the Oilers are with him. God forbid they let him go and signed someone with more jam and offensive upside like Landeskog. Going back to RNH pretty much ensures the status quo.
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Lucic signed for more money when the salary cap was lower. Not suggesting nuge is a star. I think he’s overrated but hard to say this deal isn’t good for at least the next 4 to 5 years.
Its fine deal, just that getting excited that this is setting them up for a great summer has been done before and with more actual action.
This is lateral at best and I don’t see what they will bring in to make them better over the next few months.
They will be similar next year a PP dependent team that gets a top seed and gets smashed out in the first or maybe second round.
The only current UFAs who made even close to that amount in their last contract are Ovechkin, Geltzlaf and Hall.
On the other hand Brandon Saad would be a clear upgrade and he made $6M in his last contract. He might make $7M next time out. Landeskog would be an upgrade, he made $5.5 and he will get more, but not $3.5 more. Reinhart won't be getting $9M. Johannson won't. Palmieri won't.
Yes you are correct all these guys won't get $9 mil but I doubt any would sign for $5.15 either...with the Oilers. You also could make a case that half of these guys are no better than Nuge and some who are better are on teams that have more depth and give that player better chance to succeed.
The main reason why most think Nuge is overrated is his numbers when playing away from both McDavid and Drasaitl aren't very good. But when he isn't playing with those 2, who is he playing with? Neal? Kassian? Archibald? How did Gaudreau and Monahan play when Neal was on their line? Is it because Nuge is really that bad or is it because the Oilers have 3 good forwards. If they add good depth players you could see Nuge numbers get better away from the big 2. $5.15 is a good deal and yes the term sucks but I bet Flames fans would take Johnny on an 8 year deal is he signed for $5.75 per year and he is 29 years old playing that deal to 37.
It could blow up on the Oilers and we could find out that this deal really hurts the Oilers but Nuge should have been able to get $6.5 for sure in free agency so $5.15 is looking very good from them
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Good deal. RNH probably could have gotten $6.5M/yr or more.
I agree, but it would have most likely been on a shorter deal. I think $7M x 5 years, $6.5M x 6 or $6M x 7 years might have been pretty plausible for him to get, but if you look at the overall $ value of the contracts, $7M x 5 only locks in $35M while $5.125M x 8 locks in $41M. Sure, if he signed a 5 year deal which brings him to 33 there is a chance he could get another (few) contract(s) that pays more than $6M in total, but there's some risk with that. Likewise, $6M x 7 might bring in more money overall but he might not have been able to get a full NMC which has some value as well, just for the stability of your family.
How many team make trades to acquire cap hit? It’s pretty rare, and they don’t do it because they need the hit, it’s because they can absorb it and they charge a price for taking it.
This is exactly it. This contract may work out well, may bomb completely, or may be one of the ones where the last couple of years sucks, but was worth it for the first bunch of years. But whatever it is, no one should be banking on "if it doesn't work, the oil can just trade him to a team that needs cap"
If they are trying to dump his 5.125 in four years, it isn't going to be because there is a lineup of a dozen GM's asking to take him to help them get to the cap floor. If he doesn't finish out the 8 in an oilers uniform, it will be either a buyout, or him with a pick or prospect in return for cap space and a 5th rounder. Not to mention he would have to agree, and I doubt he would be taking the deal that dumps him in a 30th place team for the sake of the oilers, as opposed to saying he'll only go to a team that's a contender, further limiting not only trading partners, but the price anyone will pay.
I don't personally think this will be a career ending bust of a signing, but we know it doesn't improve anything, since he is a known commodity on their roster, and it certainly isn't a fool proof risk free contract that the oil can easily get out of later.
The good news is that the boards won't wear down and be replaced while he's there. Love the long term deal with NMC, he can basically not worry about producing anymore. This is a retirement on the job contract.
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