[Signing] Oilers re-sign RNH (8yrs, $5.125 mil AAV, full NMC)

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

The Tenderness remains an Oiler on a pretty decent deal. Front end is going to be good value, but backend is going to be ugly.

On the Backlund issue, that is a player the Flames should be trying to move. Just doesn't bring the value to the team that he's supposed to. Mr. Selke has been anything but, and he just doesn't have the offensive skill to be a good second line center on a contending team. Just isn't worth the money IMO and a player I would be actively trying to rid myself of. If the Flames are going to give up assets to move a player to Seattle, it would be good to target either Lucic or Backlund in those discussions.

The Flames aren't a contending team. Likely won't be.

I'm fine with moving Backlund given his age, etc, but there really isn't any support for the notion that Backlund is over paid.

He is what he is ... 0.5 PPG, second tier shut down 2nd/3rd line center. That pretty much costs $5+M

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Is RNH overpaid based on your Backlund analysis?

Yep.

He's 135th in five on five production rates, and 106th in pay scale.

Add to that the fact that that is his future contract, and not one he's halfway through like Backlund and you have a greater decline threat in my opinion.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

The issue is his slot. You dont pay your third line center over $5 million. That is money that needs to be used to allocate towards top tier talent. It's a good thing that the Flames don't have any of that otherwise they would not be able to afford a $10-$11M salary. We just end up compensating really well the Backlunds of the world.

TBL pays 3C Gourde $5.166M. NYI pays 3C Pageau $5M. Leafs were paying Foligno $5.5 prorated. Canes pay Staal $6M. Jets paid Stastny $6.5 (or if you prefer PLD $5M). Bruins paid Coyle $5.25M. Not a C but Vegas pays Tuch $4.5 as a third line winger.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Don't you think that's probably the case for most 40 point/season forwards?

They go three games with 5 points and get you all excited and then don't produce for the next 7 etc.

If you look at his season in 5 game segments he was the following in xGF%

50.3%
64.3%
70.7%
49.5%
61.6%
49.9%
Sutter enters
50.9%
53.3%
54.5%
60.2%
64.5%

He's pretty consistent. His lows are never that low when it comes to play driving, and he found another gear when Sutter took over (makes sense given Sutter mentioning him often)

There should be a rule that whenever xGF % is mentioned actual GF% needs to be mentioned and the differential as well.

actual GF% is essentially plus/minus.

Skilled players do not need a whole lot of shots to score goals they get and their xGF% becomes misleading. xGF really means that you take more shots than you give up but McDavid (for instance) actually expects to score pretty much any time he has the puck control in the offensive zone.


Backlund had a great season in 2018-19 and pretty much ho-hum career outside of the Flames miracle year.

I do not recall any severe line juggling to have the other teams stars avoid Backlund as they do to avoid Danault for instance.

[GreenLantern2814]

Anyone with notions that you can’t have $5M players on the 3rd line needs to give that up.

That’s 6% of the cap. You need to be able to spend 6% on a player who can control the game against the other team’s bottom-6.

You get into trouble asking that $5m player to lock up MacKinnon or McDavid.

That requires a $7-10M centre.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

There should be a rule that whenever xGF % is mentioned actual GF% needs to be mentioned and the differential as well.

actual GF% is essentially plus/minus.

Skilled players do not need a whole lot of shots to score goals they get and their xGF% becomes misleading. xGF really means that you take more shots than you give up but McDavid (for instance) actually expects to score pretty much any time he has the puck control in the offensive zone.


Backlund had a great season in 2018-19 and pretty much ho-hum career outside of the Flames miracle year.

I do not recall any severe line juggling to have the other teams stars avoid Backlund as they do to avoid Danault for instance.

Disagree.

If you're paid $12M a season and have a great xGF% split but a terrible actual production total you're on to something.

But the expected splits are huge for identifying two way players effectiveness on hockey teams and Backlund would be one of the poster children for that.

He just gets it done.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Well, if you assume a player will be bought out the moment they sign an 8 year contract, it should look ugly.

Someone suggested it was a contract made to be bought out. Maybe so, but the term makes it a long haul if they do.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

There should be a rule that whenever xGF % is mentioned actual GF% needs to be mentioned and the differential as well.

actual GF% is essentially plus/minus.

Skilled players do not need a whole lot of shots to score goals they get and their xGF% becomes misleading. xGF really means that you take more shots than you give up but McDavid (for instance) actually expects to score pretty much any time he has the puck control in the offensive zone.


Backlund had a great season in 2018-19 and pretty much ho-hum career outside of the Flames miracle year.

I do not recall any severe line juggling to have the other teams stars avoid Backlund as they do to avoid Danault for instance.

TBL is line juggling to get their stars out against Suzuki to exploit that line. And if you don’t think other teams tried to get their stars out against Monahan/Gaudreau you have a bad memory. Lindholm was a partial cure for that but even that wore thin.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The Flames aren't a contending team. Likely won't be.

Don't say that too loud. Don't want Brad or Murray to hear the truth.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

TBL pays 3C Gourde $5.166M. NYI pays 3C Pageau $5M. Leafs were paying Foligno $5.5 prorated. Canes pay Staal $6M. Jets paid Stastny $6.5 (or if you prefer PLD $5M). Bruins paid Coyle $5.25M. Not a C but Vegas pays Tuch $4.5 as a third line winger.

there were basically no games that Statsny or PLD played outside of the top-6.

Gourde is #4 in TOI in the playoffs for TB and #6 in reg season for TB forwards

Pageau is #5 in TOI in playoffs and #5 in the playoffs

Staal is #4 in Playoffs and #2 in regular season

all top-6 forwards.

Tuch #6 in PO and #8 in regular season

[GhostCookie]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I don’t think the deal is bad in isolation. He probably would have received a higher salary but lower term on the open market.

But in the big picture, it doesn’t improve the Oilers and the cap savings aren’t major enough to make a huge difference. Every little bit matters, but they need a lot more to make it count.

I think this us a fairly accurate description of the signing. At the end of the day, it doesn't really address what the Oilers are lacking, and as a Flames fan, I would like to say that keeping the gang together isn't likely going to give you a different outcome than you already had. Considering the other holes they have throughout their roster, I don't see how this signing makes them better. Klefbom is possibly back next season, reducing that open cap space, and they still need to sign a starter goalie and any other D they want to sign as well as offers for RFA's.

[stang]

Originally Posted by blankall

The term is pretty shocking, but in 3 years that contract will look like an absolute steal. The Oilers will probably be stuck with 2-3 years of overpayment on the back end. RNH seems like he has enough hockey smarts, that he'll still be serviceable in his mid-30s.

I'd like to see the breakdown, to see if this contract is front loaded. Whatever the case, this certainly helps Edmonton put together a better team over the next 4-5 years, which I'm assuming they think is the McDavid window.

5
5.25
6.25
6.25
4 w/ 2 SB
2.25 w/ 2.5 SB
2.5 w/ 1.25 SB
3.75

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Oilers could have gone 4-4 if they keep this in the drawer.

mavi
raisaItl
JP
Yamamoto

Nurse
Klefbom
Bear
Caleb Jones


Caleb Jones could be a useful piece for any team looking to sign brother Seth long term.

It is hilarious how few pieces they have worthy of protection.

Klefbom won’t be protected

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

there were basically no games that Statsny or PLD played outside of the top-6.

Gourde is #4 in TOI in the playoffs for TB and #6 in reg season for TB forwards

Pageau is #5 in TOI in playoffs and #5 in the playoffs

Staal is #4 in Playoffs and #2 in regular season

all top-6 forwards.

Tuch #6 in PO and #8 in regular season

LOL. They line up on the third line. They play PK and shutdown minutes which boosts ice time.

But let’s go with TOI as the indicator of top 6. Guess where Backlund ranks on the Flames?

[agulati]

The AAV is good for RNH. The term is a few years too long though taking him up to 36. Rare for players to keep up their play for that long.

Originally Posted by stang

5
5.25
6.25
6.25
4 w/ 2 SB
2.25 w/ 2.5 SB
2.5 w/ 1.25 SB
3.75



Klefbom won’t be protected

Won't be protected or doesn't have to be protected? Wasn't there a list of players exempt from the draft due to injury situation?

[Strange Brew]

Arguably no one on the Flames is crazy overpaid, other than Lucic and the dead buyout money. Even Lucic brings some value.

Problem is the team is just far less than the sum of their parts. Maybe a full season with a head coach who knows how to win at the pro level helps fix that.

[Locke]

Oh Lord....they've got him signed until he's 36?

You can tell this was just the Oilers stretching the term until the AAV was something they could swallow.

Its a great contract for RNH. The guy is going to be decent-to-good for half of this and then he's going to be a boat-anchor on your payroll.

The Oilers are banking on the Cap going up and it not really mattering, but really, they have to not torpedo their cap with a half-dozen other terrible contracts in the meantime which....is sort of their thing.

[wired]

Originally Posted by direwolf

8 more years with that dumpster fire? Yikes. Thoughts and prayers to RNH and his family.

8 more years of getting paid. He has his spot, and is probably comfortable on the team.
I would love a job where I was paid that much for that long to play a game.

[stang]

Originally Posted by agulati

The AAV is good for RNH. The term is a few years too long though taking him up to 36. Rare for players to keep up their play for that long.



Won't be protected or doesn't have to be protected? Wasn't there a list of players exempt from the draft due to injury situation?

Won’t. Very likely he never plays again.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

TBL pays 3C Gourde $5.166M. NYI pays 3C Pageau $5M. Leafs were paying Foligno $5.5 prorated. Canes pay Staal $6M. Jets paid Stastny $6.5 (or if you prefer PLD $5M). Bruins paid Coyle $5.25M. Not a C but Vegas pays Tuch $4.5 as a third line winger.

Stastny, Staal, Coyle, Foligno are all terrible contracts.

Pageau I understand because they don't have any other C's really breaking the bank.

Gourde is playing on a team that is $18M over the cap. They are also paying Tyler Johnson $5M to play 4th line C.

So out of the entire league - its 2-3 teams like us which makes us the exception not the norm.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by wired

8 more years of getting paid. He has his spot, and is probably comfortable on the team.
I would love a job where I was paid that much for that long to play a game.

Especially where he’s like a middle relief pitcher as far as pressure goes - not expected to carry the team, not in danger of being cut, not expected to be a gritty guy or get into fights, can just exist being able to collect points from the power play or being thrown beside McD as a winger, etc.