2021 NHL Draft

[1qqaaz]

Yeah, they have been saying Brock Nelson is the only forward among the top 15 scorers who is 6'2 or over. He's also the only one who is more than 200 lbs.

This doesn't necessarily mean small players are good. There's a lot of average size NHL forwards here (most of them). Rather, it seems large forwards might be more ineffective than people think.

There just aren't a ton of good 6'3+ forwards in the modern NHL.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Yeah, everyone looks at the Lightning's forwards and think, oh gee, we can have a team full of midgets as well, not recognizing the supporting cast up front that does the dirty work. Killorn, 6'1 200, Goodrow, 6'2 203, Palat, 6'0 194, Maroon, 6'3 238. Then they also ignore the fact their defense is big and skilled. Hedman, 6'6 241, Sergachev, 6'3 216, Foote, 6'4 227, Cernak, 6'3 230, Rutta 6'3 204, Savard 6'2 233, Schenn, 6'2 216 and so on. It isn't a team of midgets like some would try and lead to you to believe. If you look at the teams that made the quarters, they all have beef and they can all play a heavy game. That's what Sutter wants and to do so will require beef, not veal.

[Bingo]

Updated consensus file with Wheeler's full 100.

https://www.calgarypuck.com/wp-conte...onsensus-3.pdf

You'll notice this is "3", the other ones are still available if you want to go back -2, -1 etc.

No real change in rankings but the list is almost 240 players long now.

[Bingo]

I think eliminating any player based on size is a huge mistake.

If you can add skill that's big ... do it!

But if it comes down to less size and skill versus less skill and size take the little guy every single time.

Ideally things balance out, but don't go long on size hoping to make your team bigger. Sign and promote average players with size later.

[transplant99]

Yeah when some say we need to add size, it doesnt mean it has to be giants.

Lots of guys are 5' 10" or 11" and weigh 185-200 lb....those are good sized hockey players.

I mean it would awesome to get a 6'4" 240 lb behmoth that can skate and score, but Eric Lindros doesnt come along very often.

What this club can ill afford are more of the 5'7" 5' 8" types who weigh 160 lbs. Guys like that simply get worn out way quicker if they are egaged in the physical side of the game...ie along the boards and in front of the net. Something this team lacked in spades last year particularly.

You can carry one, maybe two, as full timers but thats the limit and has to be offset with heavy hitters along the boards who can also contribute. Thats where the bolts have the edge on most teams. I think Vegas has one guy who would even be considered undersized in Marchessault.

Size still matters and your smaller guys have to play big.

[Lanny_McDonald]

And in a system teaming with under-sized forwards, the last thing we need is another one. Given the choice between two skilled players, one 5'10 175 pounds, and another 6'0 200 pounds, I take the two inches and 25 pounds. People ooohed and aaahed over the Panthers after The Legend was traded there, but they seem to miss the point that their two best players were 6'3 215, and 6'1 202. Size matters.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Over simplifying but the big, skilled and good skating prospects will all go in the top 8 or so. Even within that top 8 - hard to find all 3. Evidsson dropping to the Flames though would be a lucky bounce.

But my point is when you get into the mid of the 1st you are going to have to compromise on one of those. Just a matter of which. I find that when we talk about these things it is too binary in nature - you don't avoid drafting for size but nor should you over focus on it. For me it's about the package of attributes that a player has and lacks - and an overall assessment of how that maps to an overall projected player.

[dammage79]

5'10" to 6' isn't small. It's average. So if anyone is winjing about guys like Lysell being small, they're wrong. Especially if they're a teenager over 170 lbs.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

And in a system teaming with under-sized forwards, the last thing we need is another one. Given the choice between two skilled players, one 5'10 175 pounds, and another 6'0 200 pounds, I take the two inches and 25 pounds. People ooohed and aaahed over the Panthers after The Legend was traded there, but they seem to miss the point that their two best players were 6'3 215, and 6'1 202. Size matters.

Nobody is going to argue with taking the bigger guy if two players are equally skilled.

But that's not a likely scenario.

Every small guy in the Calgary system won't make it. If they do they will have trade value and you can sort it out then.

The first round is for skill ... Full stop. Worry about size later in the draft, or even in free agency.

[transplant99]

Just did a cursory look at last years first round.

2 guys under 5' 10" were chosen.

I guess GM's still value size a bit as well.

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by dammage79

5'10" to 6' isn't small. It's average. So if anyone is winjing about guys like Lysell being small, they're wrong. Especially if they're a teenager over 170 lbs.

I am in the size matters camp and agree that Lysell is not small. I think the issue I have with Lysell is that his only go-to seems to be pick up the puck try to stickhandle through everyone including the goalie.

He no doubt has excellent hands and speed. My reservations is how much awareness he has about what's going on around him. It looks pretty low to me and when his go-to doesn't work at the NHL level what do you have in the end?

Ignoring everyone's strengths and weaknesses, I like each of the players around our pick but I think Sillinger is the best hockey player and I select him over Lysell, McTavish, Lucius etc.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Average NHL forward is 6'0, and just under 200 pounds. Average NHL defenseman is 6'2, and just over 210 pounds. 5'10, 175 pounds is a small player.

[SuperMatt18]

You take the most skilled player.

Brayden Point is 5'10", 183 lbs

Nikita Kucherov is 5'11", 183 lbs

Neither of those guys seem to have trouble producing in the NHL, or in the playoffs. As long as the guy is 5'10" or taller, or he's 180 lbs or heavier then you really don't seem to have an issue.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Average NHL forward is 6'0, and just under 200 pounds. Average NHL defenseman is 6'2, and just over 210 pounds. 5'10, 175 pounds is a small player.

What's the average amongst the top 30 scoring forwards?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

You take the most skilled player.

Brayden Point is 5'10", 183 lbs

Nikita Kucherov is 5'11", 183 lbs

Neither of those guys seem to have trouble producing in the NHL, or in the playoffs. As long as the guy is 5'10" or taller, or he's 180 lbs or heavier then you really don't seem to have an issue.

Brayden Point. 3rd rounder, 79th overall.

Nikita Kucherov. 2nd round, 58th overall.

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

What's the average amongst the top 30 scoring forwards?

72.6 inches tall (6'0.5) 199.4 pounds. The average of the top 30 scorers is the same as the average forward in the NHL (that's gotta smart).

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Brayden Point. 3rd rounder, 79th overall.

Nikita Kucherov. 2nd round, 58th overall.



72.6 inches tall (6'0.5) 199.4 pounds. The average of the top 30 scorers is the same as the average forward in the NHL (that's gotta smart).

So where below the ‘average’ do we hit this ‘undersized’ description?

Why would that ‘smart’? Thanks for the info.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Brayden Point. 3rd rounder, 79th overall.

Nikita Kucherov. 2nd round, 58th overall.



72.6 inches tall (6'0.5) 199.4 pounds. The average of the top 30 scorers is the same as the average forward in the NHL (that's gotta smart).

Yeah and in any re-draft they’d be top 5 picks.

They made teams look stupid because they didn’t take them because they were supposedly too small.

Cole caufield fell to 15 because he was too small, probably a couple of teams that already regret that.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

So where below the ‘average’ do we hit this ‘undersized’ description?

Undersized would be beyond the standard deviation. Speaking generally, that would fall probably +/- 2 inches, and then +/- 20 pounds. So an undersized forward would be anything smaller than 5'10, 180. Conversely, a large forward would be anyone over 6'2, 220 pounds. The second deviation would make tiny players 5'8, 160 pounds or smaller, and huge skaters larger than 6'4, 240 pounds. Those bands seem to make the most sense as the data seems to fall in those boundaries.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah and in any re-draft they’d be top 5 picks.

They made teams look stupid because they didn’t take them because they were supposedly too small.

Except there is no such thing as a re-draft. Only the navel gazers talk about re-drafts like they mean anything. They don't. Players are drafted based on the possibility of reaching the potential a team sees in them, and then contribute in the NHL. Every draft there are players who manage to over-achieve. Doesn't mean anyone made a mistake, just a player found the secret sauce to reaching that potential.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Undersized would be beyond the standard deviation. Speaking generally, that would fall probably +/- 2 inches, and then +/- 20 pounds. So an undersized forward would be anything smaller than 5'10, 180. Conversely, a large forward would be anyone over 6'2, 220 pounds. The second deviation would make tiny players 5'8, 160 pounds or smaller, and huge skaters larger than 6'4, 240 pounds. Those bands seem to make the most sense as the data seems to fall in those boundaries.

I tend to agree with this.

I have no worries with any player 5'10" or taller, or 180 lbs and up. I don't think you have to worry about a guy that size being "too small".

Anything smaller than that is probably where maybe you wouldn't use an early first on the player.

Lysell is 5'10" and 174lbs right now, so would be easily above 180 as he matures into his NHL weight and strength. So wouldn't be too concerned about his size.

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Except there is no such thing as a re-draft. Only the navel gazers talk about re-drafts like they mean anything. They don't. Players are drafted based on the possibility of reaching the potential a team sees in them, and then contribute in the NHL. Every draft there are players who manage to over-achieve. Doesn't mean anyone made a mistake, just a player found the secret sauce to reaching that potential.

Disagree. I think you can say that NHL GMs made a mistake.

Looking strictly at pre-draft production both Point and Kucherov already looked like they would be elite.

If you look at his offensive production in junior Brayden Point produced like a top 10 player in that draft (6th highest star potential based on Byron Bader's model), same with Kucherov in his draft year (actually the highest NHL Star potential in his draft year based on Byron Bader's model). NHL GMs made the decision to avoid the production because they though they were seen as too small (or Russian factor too in Kucherov's case).