2021 NHL Draft

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Biggest concern with Coronato to me is that he's going to Harvard. There is too much history with NCAA players that go to Harvard forcing where they want to play.

Vesey, Kerfoot, and Fox all refused to sign.

Oilers didn't think they had much of a player in Marino but some rumors are he didn't want to sign in Edmonton either.

If he's there in the second then sure take that risk, but I'm not taking that risk at 12 if I'm the Flames.

Frankly, I am not concerned about this at all.

Jimmy Vesey: 3rd round pick, spent 4 years at Harvard
Adam Fox: 3rd round pick, spent 3 years at Harvard, never went UFA
Alexander Kerfoot: 5th round pick, spent 4 years at Harvard

Like I said before, if Coronato is taken 12th overall and he doesn't play in the NHL within 2 years, that would be very disappointing. He's just not comparable to the others, who were mid round picks.

The Flames would sign and play him in less than 2 years.
It would be extremely foolish of Coronato to give up 2 years of his NHL contract time just finish his degree.
Ideally for Coronato, he'd play at Harvard for one year, sign his entry-level contract, then be ready for a huge RFA extension three years later.
Then he could make tens of millions 4 years after his draft.

See Cole Caufield. Drafted 15th overall. Signed after two years.
He would have been leaving a ton of money on the table if he went UFA rather than playing for the Habs for two years.

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Frankly, I am not concerned about this at all.

Adam Fox: 3rd round pick, spent 3 years at Harvard, never went UFA

It would be extremely foolish of Coronato to give up 2 years of his NHL contract time just finish his degree.

Fox was offered a contract to go pro after two years, but was willing to give up 2 years of NHL earnings to go where he wanted. Harvard has that allure as their degrees are so valuable.

I agree it is a minimal risk, but there is precedent (with the Flames)

[dino7c]

Yeah Fox is about the worst example ever...he would have gone UFA if they didn't trade him exactly where he wanted to go. Forced a trade from 2 teams before playing a second in the NHL to get to his desired destination.

[Bingo]

Updated Consensus Rankings

Added Central Scouting to the first two columns (NA and EU), but they are not part of the consensus for obvious reasons.

Really getting dialed in now, not a lot of change happening any more with 14 rankings making up the average.

10 Fabian Lysell RW #SHL 9 10 3 11 27 14 12 9 10 5 9 27 7 7 11 11.57
11 Cole Sillinger C #USHL 10 13 14 15 13 10 13 18 16 13 14 17 12 14 13 13.93
12 Chaz Lucius C #USDP 12 12 16 10 10 16 9 13 19 25 6 15 18 16 12 14.07
13 Aatu Raty C #Liiga 3 19 11 14 20 12 20 11 3 9 12 29 20 8 19 14.79
14 Mason Mctavish C #SL 2 15 29 9 9 9 11 14 21 32 16 14 5 20 10 15.29
15 Carson Lambos D #U20 SM-sarja 11 22 28 18 14 5 15 20 2 15 39.5 12 30 12 14 17.61

Still a healthy gap on the top and bottom with Wallstedt and Chibrikov. Lambos is starting to slide back compared to the other five as well.

42 Ryder Korczak
43 Prokhor Poltapov
44 William Stromgren
45 Samu Salminen
46 Aidan Hreschuk
47 Evan Nause

74 Tristan Lennox
75 Jack Peart
76 Cole Jordan
77 Cole Huckins
78 Kirill Kirsanov
79 Justin Robidas

82 Jack O’Brien
83 Ilya Fedotov
84 Jeremy Hanzel
85 Stuart Rolofs
86 James Malatesta
87 Ty Gallagher

[Jiri Hrdina]

Is there anything more annoying than Central Scouting dividing NA and Euro rankings. Makes the data entirely useless to use.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Funkhouser

Fox was offered a contract to go pro after two years, but was willing to give up 2 years of NHL earnings to go where he wanted. Harvard has that allure as their degrees are so valuable.

I agree it is a minimal risk, but there is precedent (with the Flames)

Do we know if they offered Fox the Gaudreau deal, to burn off a year of his ELC?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Do we know if they offered Fox the Gaudreau deal, to burn off a year of his ELC?

Fox pretty much has said in interview he did what he could to force his way to New York, and that it was his goal to play for the Rangers. Doesn't sound like anything the Flames or Carolina did would change that.

ESPN: You had a fascinating path to the Rangers. Players rarely get a chance to work the system. Usually, the system works you guys. But Calgary drafts you, they trade you to Carolina, and you end up with the team you really wanted to play for. How on earth did you make that happen as a college free-agent type?

Fox: "Working the system" is one way to say it. I mean, I personally didn't feel I was ready to make that jump. I know a lot of people can go to the [AHL] at a young age, but I went to Harvard for a reason. Getting far enough along for my degree was important to me. Obviously, it was a dream to play for the Rangers, but it was also an opportunity for me to go and play there and be part of a future with young guys. Being from there is the cherry on top.

ESPN: Carolina acquired you from Calgary in the Dougie Hamilton trade. At the time, GM Don Waddell said he was "99.9%" sure you'd end up with the Hurricanes. I've spoken to Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon a bit. He's an excellent salesman. Was there ever a time when you were almost convinced to give the Hurricanes a chance?

Fox: I don't know. They were good to me. I can't help but only say positive things about Carolina. But for me ... I had an opportunity to fulfill a dream that I had. You don't get many opportunities to make a choice like that. It was my goal to do that, and had the opportunity to go with that. And it worked out.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/...hl-journey-far

[Tkachukwagon]

Argh, now I hate Fox even more.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Is there anything more annoying than Central Scouting dividing NA and Euro rankings. Makes the data entirely useless to use.

Right? They are already comparing 3 different CHL leagues plus college plus the odd other NA league, and forward, defence and goalies in the same rankings, so how is it so hard to compare euro leagues. Ice surface can’t make it that hard.

[Monahammer]

I know I have been pumping him a lot lately, but anyone doubting Sillinger as a potential dynamite pick at 12 needs to go back and read stuff about him last year or even 2 years ago. IMO this is the player that suffered most from an inconsistent season this year and got surpassed (unjustly) because of it.

Look at this thread on HF for example. His rookie WHL season he was seen as right alongside Guenther, who most have as a guaranteed top 10 pick this year.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I know I have been pumping him a lot lately, but anyone doubting Sillinger as a potential dynamite pick at 12 needs to go back and read stuff about him last year or even 2 years ago. IMO this is the player that suffered most from an inconsistent season this year and got surpassed (unjustly) because of it.

Look at this thread on HF for example. His rookie WHL season he was seen as right alongside Guenther, who most have as a guaranteed top 10 pick this year.

Looking strictly at point production and NHL equivalency from Byron Bader's model these are the top 5 in terms of likelihood to be a star.

Guenther
Clarke
Sillinger
Pastujov
Eklund

So Byron Bader's model agrees with you. And yeah hopefully Sillinger or Eklund are there at 12 for the Flames. I'd also love for Flames to trade back up into the late 1st if Pastujov is still around.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Looking strictly at point production and NHL equivalency from Byron Bader's model these are the top 5 in terms of likelihood to be a star.

Guenther
Clarke
Sillinger
Pastujov
Eklund

So Byron Bader's model agrees with you. And yeah hopefully Sillinger or Eklund are there at 12 for the Flames. I'd also love for Flames to trade back up into the late 1st if Pastujov is still around.

Not trying to pat myself on the back at all lol but this matches my eye test perfectly. IMO Clarke will be the best player in the draft.
This will be a really cool draft to look back on.

[Monahammer]

Also, I would take Guenther before Sillinger if he fell too. I've been holding back the comparison out of vain hope he does fall and I dont want to jinx it, but IMO he plays a lot like another Right shot winger from Edmonton, 6'1 ~180 as a young man with a knack for the net. Known for unspectacular but mature play and producing. Iggy's big 2 ppg WHL season came post draft though, so Guenther might be a bit ahead of him...

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Is there anything more annoying than Central Scouting dividing NA and Euro rankings. Makes the data entirely useless to use.

Yep

Absolutely useless. I like having them in the mix for reference sake but without a consolidation they are a complete waste of time.

On the Fox thing ... I get that it's an annoying loophole, but isn't it similar to the CHL re-enter the draft option? Unless you can just offer a contract to a CHL player and keep him from re-entering the draft (not sure to be honest) than the loopholes are similar in nature but differ greatly in impact.

Too many CHL re-entry players have slid back in the draft so they just don't chase that option down.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yep

Absolutely useless. I like having them in the mix for reference sake but without a consolidation they are a complete waste of time.

On the Fox thing ... I get that it's an annoying loophole, but isn't it similar to the CHL re-enter the draft option? Unless you can just offer a contract to a CHL player and keep him from re-entering the draft (not sure to be honest) than the loopholes are similar in nature but differ greatly in impact.

Too many CHL re-entry players have slid back in the draft so they just don't chase that option down.

Honestly I think it should be the case in all scenarios.

If you offer the player a max rookie contract then you should hold his rights. You used a draft pick on that player and they should be treated the same as an RFA.

The player can still refuse to sign, but at least then the team has more negotiating power without some arbitrary deadline of 2 or 4 years.

[bigrangy]

College UFA is no different than CHL draft re-entry, correct. The difference is that a player can reasonably expect 4 years of decent development from their college program post draft, but would be left having to find their own team in Europe or the ECHL if they wanted to do the same in the CHL. But yeah, someone like Guenther (total example) could say, nah, I’m not signing with anyone, play two more years for the Oil Kings, then go to the SHL/KHL for two years, and then be a UFA.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I will say this is based entirely on highlight videos as I have not watched any Lucius games, but from what I have seen his skating looks the most choppy/ mechanically poor out of the sillinger/mctavish/lucius potential skating issues group. The other two look more like strength and conditioning relative to weight issues (i.e. more explosiveness neeeded)

I agree fully, I just didn’t want to upset all the Lucius fans, lol.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Updated Consensus Rankings

Added Central Scouting to the first two columns (NA and EU), but they are not part of the consensus for obvious reasons.

Really getting dialed in now, not a lot of change happening any more with 14 rankings making up the average.

10 Fabian Lysell RW #SHL 9 10 3 11 27 14 12 9 10 5 9 27 7 7 11 11.57
11 Cole Sillinger C #USHL 10 13 14 15 13 10 13 18 16 13 14 17 12 14 13 13.93
12 Chaz Lucius C #USDP 12 12 16 10 10 16 9 13 19 25 6 15 18 16 12 14.07
13 Aatu Raty C #Liiga 3 19 11 14 20 12 20 11 3 9 12 29 20 8 19 14.79
14 Mason Mctavish C #SL 2 15 29 9 9 9 11 14 21 32 16 14 5 20 10 15.29
15 Carson Lambos D #U20 SM-sarja 11 22 28 18 14 5 15 20 2 15 39.5 12 30 12 14 17.61

Still a healthy gap on the top and bottom with Wallstedt and Chibrikov. Lambos is starting to slide back compared to the other five as well.

42 Ryder Korczak
43 Prokhor Poltapov
44 William Stromgren
45 Samu Salminen
46 Aidan Hreschuk
47 Evan Nause

74 Tristan Lennox
75 Jack Peart
76 Cole Jordan
77 Cole Huckins
78 Kirill Kirsanov
79 Justin Robidas

82 Jack O’Brien
83 Ilya Fedotov
84 Jeremy Hanzel
85 Stuart Rolofs
86 James Malatesta
87 Ty Gallagher

Strange. In all of the rankings I am seeing McTavish is moving up not down.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

It seems like Lucius could really benefit from a proper workout regime.
He’s very light for his height so there should be a lot of room for growth there if he puts his mind to it.

You’d think the explosiveness with his skating would improve as a result.

I think you're right. I don't think he'll ever be a speedster, but he needs to get a lot stronger. His lower body strength and core strength are said to be weak.

[Ragnar]

In order of preference from Bingo's list:

1. McTavish
2. Lysell
3. Sillinger
4. Raty
5. Lucius
6. Lambos