Seattle Expansion Draft Speculation

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Lowry signed an extension weeks ago.

Yep, aware of that. That's partly why I wouldn't expose him if I was Winnipeg, excellent player on an excellent deal.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Said every researcher who went and tried to prove a methodology wrong without first understanding the study.



Yet we hear Treliving talking about giving up assets to protect marginal players on his team. One thing you can count on in the NHL is GMs falling in love with their players and believing they are worth more than they really are, and then willing to do dumb things to protect the assets they love. So yes, it will happen.



It's a fluke that turned into an NHL powerhouse. You can bet your ass that a GM who is building an expansion team is going to do everything in their power to replicate what the Golden Knights did. The way the rules are set up, it is in the expansion team's favor for it happening again.

I don't understand the study?

Vegas had a lot go right. I'm sure Seattle would like to get the entire plan to play out again but they're going to need a lot of help.

But they just don't have the same likelihood of getting a half dozen GMs to royally screw up and just hand them additional assets. The Vegas expansion draft was 16 years after the Jackets and Wild came into the league. None of the current GMs have forgotten how the expansion draft works in four years.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't understand the study?

Vegas had a lot go right. I'm sure Seattle would like to get the entire plan to play out again but they're going to need a lot of help.

But they just don't have the same likelihood of getting a half dozen GMs to royally screw up and just hand them additional assets. The Vegas expansion draft was 16 years after the Jackets and Wild came into the league. None of the current GMs have forgotten how the expansion draft works in four years.

Sure, and GMs learn from their contract mistakes and never follow up one bad signing with another. GMs are "very smart" people and they put those smarts on display all the time. One thing you can never go wrong with is betting that a GM will do something incredibly stupid each and every off season. It is the nature of the business and the nature of the game. I'm shocked you think these guys are smart, just based on the stupidity that goes on each and every off season. Hell, just in Calgary alone.

[transplant99]

I had NO idea Landeskog is possibly going to UFA this summer.

Now there is a guy i could see BT going after and in a big way.

This would allow the Tkachuk/Gaudreau deal (either one) to be for mostly futures.

No way they let him get there though....is there?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Sure, and GMs learn from their contract mistakes and never follow up one bad signing with another. GMs are "very smart" people and they put those smarts on display all the time. One thing you can never go wrong with is betting that a GM will do something incredibly stupid each and every off season. It is the nature of the business and the nature of the game. I'm shocked you think these guys are smart, just based on the stupidity that goes on each and every off season. Hell, just in Calgary alone.

But you're confusing the lanes in stupidity.

Over bidding for players that are "free" is a trap, because the individual will gain (keep his job) if he can win by adding players without giving up draft capital.

It's to alluring to ignore, and they all step in it.

But giving away assets to an expansion team doesn't help you win, doesn't protect your job, and doesn't make you look good to your owner.

Two of the worst offenders lost their jobs.

Florida - fired
Minnesota - fired

So no it's not the same. It's been well talked about and pointed out that you don't give up additional assets because it backfired. There are exceptions, and we will see some of that for sure ... but the average GM is going to be damn sure he doesn't come out looking like the jackass that some of them did last time around.

[Strange Brew]

After the trade deadline didn't Treliving specifically talk about the option of using extra picks to "protect" certain players in the expansion draft? Of course that doesn't mean he will do it, but just like the allure of UFA's, some GM's will be tempted to hang onto their vets at a price

No I doubt the Vegas success will be replicated. Doesn't need to be, they are a powerhouse and have been from day 1. Could Seattle be a playoff contender from the outset? That wouldn't shock me at all.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by New Era

It is very likely they will, and that is without pulling off any trades. They will have access to 30 NHL players, mostly around third line forwards and second pair defensemen. Seeing that the Flames struggle to fill three lines with NHL talent, I'd say the Kraken will have better depth. Probably not better top end talent, but better depth throughout the lineup.

Your assumption holds true if you assume that every team has all their top 4/top 9 under contract. It also doesn't account for young players that are automatically protected. Okay so you get a mix of 3rd/4th liners and 4-6th defenseman. For example, if Seattle wanted Derek Ryan, and he didn't want to sign there, there's nothing they could do. Also, you won't be getting 30 NHL players because some of the picks would be used on prospects.

Originally Posted by New Era

Development wise, I'm certain there will be some draft picks headed their way to make sure certain players are not selected. That is going to immediately swell their prospect ranks. Add in Calgary's terrible prospect depth and it is very likely the Kraken will have been prospects going into next season. They will also be able to buy their minor league team and have a number of good young players at their disposal.

Again, they will get some draft picks. That said I really doubt they would be getting many draft picks in the first two rounds. Is that better than a full farm system, that has a couple of first/second round picks already in it? I'm not certain.

Coaching wise, they are going to have the pick of the market, and that market looks to be opening up. Sutter is what Sutter is, and I don't think he's a coach for this league anymore. Seattle will have the pick of the litter. Good position to be in, especially when it comes to working with the talent they will have access to.

So please, tell me where I'm wrong in this postulation? Or is this you just being you and not seeing what is obvious?

How do you know which coach wants to coach Seattle? I'm not sure every coach would jump on the opportunity of such an unproven team. Also, I have no idea what Seattle's coaching budget is. As for Sutter, I disagree with your opinion. You based your Sutter opinion on half a season where the Flames didn't get much chance to practice and implement his coaching until it was too late.

Originally Posted by New Era

Sure, and GMs learn from their contract mistakes and never follow up one bad signing with another. GMs are "very smart" people and they put those smarts on display all the time. One thing you can never go wrong with is betting that a GM will do something incredibly stupid each and every off season. It is the nature of the business and the nature of the game. I'm shocked you think these guys are smart, just based on the stupidity that goes on each and every off season. Hell, just in Calgary alone.

Here you just come across as a very cocky and sarcastic person. Good job on that front. I wouldn't have started even replying to you until you did that. You can't just accept people having a different opinion than you, so enjoy being the smartest person in the room.
Time will tell how good Seattle will be next season, but I have a hard time believing they would be more than a middle of the pack team. Vegas proved to be the exception and not the rule. I don't see anything wrong in needing more data to make proclamations that any new expansion team will tear the league a new one.

[Toonage]

GMs said they learned but I think the flat cap changes all that. I could see them giving up young players and picks for Seattle to take bad contracts with them.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Not sure how to post a mock expansion draft, but I went into Capfriendly and basically used the consensus protection list feature (with a few edits based on my own biases) and did a quick draft. My criteria was not to protect any UFAs unless it was pretty clear they would sign (Hamilton, for example) and not to pick any UFAs (with I think one exception for Antii Raanta). Tried to pick younger guys and I loaded up with 12 defensemen, similar to what Vegas did. I ended up with:

Forwards:
Henrique (Ana), McCann (Pit), Lowry (Wpg), Nichushkin (Col), Kunin (Nas), Hartman (Min, Dumba was somehow available, a slight cheat as I think he will be protected), Asplund (Buf, lol), Archibald (Edm), Dickinson (Dal), Barbashev (Stl), Paul (Ott), Wagner (LAK), Lind (Van), Balcers (SJS), Sprong (Was)

Defense:
Gio (Cal), DeKeyser (Det), Zadorov (Chi), Cernak (TBL), Holl (Tor), Hagg (Phi), Mayfield (NYI), Clifton (Bos), Bean (Car), Quenville (NJD), Bitetto (NYR), Forsling (Fla),

Goalies:
Allen (Mtl). Raanta (Ari), Kivlenieks (Clb)

Well under the cap and is compliant with all the rules, as far as I can tell. Flame away!

And New Era thinks a lineup like that will be better than ours? Lmao, no, no it won't.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I don't see anything wrong in needing more data to make proclamations that any new expansion team will tear the league a new one.

Neither do I. I also never said Seattle would rip the league a new one, just they are setup to be better off than the Flames coming out of the gate. I didn't say they would be better in the standings or kick the #### out of anyone in any way, just the odds of Seattle having a stronger team than us in many ways is a pretty high likelihood. We'll have better top end talent, but just the way the draft is setup will give Seattle a surprising advantage in many ways.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by New Era

Neither do I. I also never said Seattle would rip the league a new one, just they are setup to be better off than the Flames coming out of the gate. I didn't say they would be better in the standings or kick the #### out of anyone in any way, just the odds of Seattle having a stronger team than us in many ways is a pretty high likelihood. We'll have better top end talent, but just the way the draft is setup will give Seattle a surprising advantage in many ways.

Who will finish higher in the standings?

and do you want to bet?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

lol

Vegas is an absolute juggernaut.

They've got an all-time 204-115-24 record and are about to win their 6th playoff series (7 if you count the "play-in last year) in 4 seasons.

They finished tied for Presidents trophy this season, ahd the most wins in the league, they've been to 2 conference finals and 1 cup final in 4 seasons.

Seattle would be stupid not to try and emulate that, because even if they fall short they will still be a well above average team that will easily make the playoffs every year.

If I was a betting man I would easily bet on both Vegas and Seattle to finish ahead of the Flames in the Pacific next season.

Vegas is also a top 3 destination in the league for players...guys they bring in can't wait to sign long term deals

Seattle won't be the worst team in the league but they will be bottom 3rd IMO probably bottom 5

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Who will finish higher in the standings?

and do you want to bet?

Originally Posted by dino7c

Vegas is also a top 3 destination in the league for players...guys they bring in can't wait to sign long term deals

Seattle won't be the worst team in the league but they will be bottom 3 IMO

You think Seattle doesnt have FA drawing power? Okay.

Also, i wouldnt be betting anything on the Flames right now. Seems like a great way to empty your wallet for no good reason.

[GioforPM]

I don’t know that Seattle will go after UFAs in a big way. They will get some decent players via the draft. The owners have just spent $600M to get the team, plus all the startup costs. I don‘t think they will be into spending a lot over the floor.

One of the only attractions for them of Lucic’s contract is that his signing bonus means he’s only paid $2.5M over the remainder of the year. Assuming the bonus is paid by Calgary on July 1, he helps get to the floor but only costs $2.5 for a $6MM AAV. The next year he gets paid $4M including bonus.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Who will finish higher in the standings?

and do you want to bet?

Depends on the draft and strategy. The Kraken could very easily make a splash and grab a couple high profile UFAs before they have a chance to get to the market. If I were Seattle, I would pick Landeskog and Hamilton if they proved willing to sign. The Kraken do have that negotiation window prior to the draft, so they will know player intent. The free agent pool for goaltenders looks good too, so if they could get Landeskog, Hamilton, and say Grubauer, they would be very tough.

Also depends heavily on what the Flames do in the off season. They have no depth so they will be dealing their stars for other players. They look to be a team that doesn't take a step forward, especially if they make a blockbuster for a star player. I hope they are better, but if they make a deal like Tkachuk, Lindholm, and a 1st for Eichel, the team is worse off and would likely take a step back. Treliving has got to be feeling some heat right now, so I expect something splashy that may or may not make the team better. Any trade that sends out more assets than come back, its a loss for an asset poor team.

Right now I would say the Flames are much better positioned to finish ahead of the Kraken, seeing as they don't have a roster. As the roster develops that may change, especially if they get a couple big names under contract. I'll reserve the betting until after the free agent period and the dust settles.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Toonage

GMs said they learned but I think the flat cap changes all that. I could see them giving up young players and picks for Seattle to take bad contracts with them.

That's a different thing though.

Giving up asset A to avoid losing Asset B and as a result losing both A and C is what happened.

But in your scenario it's giving up asset A to gain cap space in player C that you didn't want.

If A+C>B you blew it.

But with cap space you're pushing the team to take an expensive player to free up the chance to add someone else to your roster.

I'd assume the expensive player they want to lose isn't contributing to his cap hit, but if that were to reverse than sure there could be some finger pointing.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Depends on the draft and strategy. The Kraken could very easily make a splash and grab a couple high profile UFAs before they have a chance to get to the market. If I were Seattle, I would pick Landeskog and Hamilton if they proved willing to sign. The Kraken do have that negotiation window prior to the draft, so they will know player intent. The free agent pool for goaltenders looks good too, so if they could get Landeskog, Hamilton, and say Grubauer, they would be very tough.

Also depends heavily on what the Flames do in the off season. They have no depth so they will be dealing their stars for other players. They look to be a team that doesn't take a step forward, especially if they make a blockbuster for a star player. I hope they are better, but if they make a deal like Tkachuk, Lindholm, and a 1st for Eichel, the team is worse off and would likely take a step back. Treliving has got to be feeling some heat right now, so I expect something splashy that may or may not make the team better. Any trade that sends out more assets than come back, its a loss for an asset poor team.

Right now I would say the Flames are much better positioned to finish ahead of the Kraken, seeing as they don't have a roster. As the roster develops that may change, especially if they get a couple big names under contract. I'll reserve the betting until after the free agent period and the dust settles.

Would have been faster to say "no"

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

Lowry signed an extension weeks ago.

That doesn't really mean anything, I mean they need to expose signed players. But noted, I don't think it will be Lowry. From what I have seen, I would now pick Big Stanley.

[kukkudo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Who will finish higher in the standings?

and do you want to bet?

After this season keep your money in your pockets bro haha

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Would have been faster to say "no"

To be honest, it was a stupid question. Wanna bet on which roster finishes higher, when one roster currently has ONE player on it. Dumb ####ing question.