Seattle Expansion Draft Speculation

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

I honestly doubt the same thing that happened to Vegas will happen to the Kraken. Vegas had everything come together for them, and were able to sustain it because they have a competitive team and an attractive market. The norm is for expansion franchises to suck. I think Seattle will be more of the norm rather than the Vegas outlier.

The rules are setup pretty much the exact same as Las Vegas. The template is already there for another team to follow. Unless they do some really dumb things, they are setup to succeed, not fail. Past expansion teams have had very limited talent to pick through and would ice AHL talent. The NHL has setup a system where the expansion team is guaranteed NHL talent, and some of it will be very good talent. In a league where depth is the difference maker, the Kraken are guaranteed depth right out of the gate.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by New Era

The rules are setup pretty much the exact same as Las Vegas. The template is already there for another team to follow. Unless they do some really dumb things, they are setup to succeed, not fail. Past expansion teams have had very limited talent to pick through and would ice AHL talent. The NHL has setup a system where the expansion team is guaranteed NHL talent, and some of it will be very good talent. In a league where depth is the difference maker, the Kraken are guaranteed depth right out of the gate.

Sure, but there's also a lot of luck and timing involved. Who saw guys like Karlsson and Marchesseaut break out like they did? Is there a Fleury equivalent this time around for Seattle?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

The rules are setup pretty much the exact same as Las Vegas. The template is already there for another team to follow. Unless they do some really dumb things, they are setup to succeed, not fail. Past expansion teams have had very limited talent to pick through and would ice AHL talent. The NHL has setup a system where the expansion team is guaranteed NHL talent, and some of it will be very good talent. In a league where depth is the difference maker, the Kraken are guaranteed depth right out of the gate.

The fact that Vegas happened, makes it pretty much impossible that it's repeated.

A lot of egg on faces of GMs that gave up additional assets to protect players that weren't as good as the assets they gave up.

Won't happen again.

Extra assets, and a lot of players "popping" isn't a recipe ... it's a fluke.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The fact that Vegas happened, makes it pretty much impossible that it's repeated.

Said every researcher who went and tried to prove a methodology wrong without first understanding the study.

A lot of egg on faces of GMs that gave up additional assets to protect players that weren't as good as the assets they gave up.

Won't happen again.

Yet we hear Treliving talking about giving up assets to protect marginal players on his team. One thing you can count on in the NHL is GMs falling in love with their players and believing they are worth more than they really are, and then willing to do dumb things to protect the assets they love. So yes, it will happen.

Extra assets, and a lot of players "popping" isn't a recipe ... it's a fluke.

It's a fluke that turned into an NHL powerhouse. You can bet your ass that a GM who is building an expansion team is going to do everything in their power to replicate what the Golden Knights did. The way the rules are set up, it is in the expansion team's favor for it happening again.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by New Era

It's a fluke that turned into an NHL powerhouse. You can bet your ass that a GM who is building an expansion team is going to do everything in their power to replicate what the Golden Knights did. The way the rules are set up, it is in the expansion team's favor for it happening again.

32 teams do everything in their power to win the Stainley Cup and the majority of them fail miserably so I don't see how one team can just replicate the Golden Knights with a completely different selection of players and prospects and opposing teams wiser to the process. I don't see a MAF available. I don't see a Shae Theodore available. I don't see a team willing to trade them a Reilly Smith type of player for a 4th round pick. I just don't see a 78 point forward like Karlsson available on any of the unprotected lists. I'm sure they are going to find a few diamonds in the rough but I can't see them having anywhere near the success of the Knights.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by New Era

Said every researcher who went and tried to prove a methodology wrong without first understanding the study.



Yet we hear Treliving talking about giving up assets to protect marginal players on his team. One thing you can count on in the NHL is GMs falling in love with their players and believing they are worth more than they really are, and then willing to do dumb things to protect the assets they love. So yes, it will happen.



It's a fluke that turned into an NHL powerhouse. You can bet your ass that a GM who is building an expansion team is going to do everything in their power to replicate what the Golden Knights did. The way the rules are set up, it is in the expansion team's favor for it happening again.

Did we hear that, or are you just guessing?

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Sure, but there's also a lot of luck and timing involved. Who saw guys like Karlsson and Marchesseaut break out like they did? Is there a Fleury equivalent this time around for Seattle?

Marchessault had 30 goals the year prior to the expansion draft.

They were cheap and didn’t want to pay him and offered him up so Vegas would take Smith who they had just signed.

Florida is a huge reason Vegas is what they are today and it pissed me off at the time (Still annoyed at how good they are).

Giving them two top 6 forwards for free was madness.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by New Era

Said every researcher who went and tried to prove a methodology wrong without first understanding the study.



Yet we hear Treliving talking about giving up assets to protect marginal players on his team. One thing you can count on in the NHL is GMs falling in love with their players and believing they are worth more than they really are, and then willing to do dumb things to protect the assets they love. So yes, it will happen.



It's a fluke that turned into an NHL powerhouse. You can bet your ass that a GM who is building an expansion team is going to do everything in their power to replicate what the Golden Knights did. The way the rules are set up, it is in the expansion team's favor for it happening again.

You just need to know your players. You can’t pull a Florida and give up quality players like Marchessault and Reilly Smith or screw up like Columbus by letting go a young kid who’s about to pop like William Karlsson.

This is where you lean on on your pro scouts to know what they’re doing and make the right.....oh wait.....rely on our pro scouts? Yeah we’re screwed; the Seattle Kraken are going to completely clown us aren’t they? Major extortion incoming.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Not sure how to post a mock expansion draft, but I went into Capfriendly and basically used the consensus protection list feature (with a few edits based on my own biases) and did a quick draft. My criteria was not to protect any UFAs unless it was pretty clear they would sign (Hamilton, for example) and not to pick any UFAs (with I think one exception for Antii Raanta). Tried to pick younger guys and I loaded up with 12 defensemen, similar to what Vegas did. I ended up with:

Forwards:
Henrique (Ana), McCann (Pit), Lowry (Wpg), Nichushkin (Col), Kunin (Nas), Hartman (Min, Dumba was somehow available, a slight cheat as I think he will be protected), Asplund (Buf, lol), Archibald (Edm), Dickinson (Dal), Barbashev (Stl), Paul (Ott), Wagner (LAK), Lind (Van), Balcers (SJS), Sprong (Was)

Defense:
Gio (Cal), DeKeyser (Det), Zadorov (Chi), Cernak (TBL), Holl (Tor), Hagg (Phi), Mayfield (NYI), Clifton (Bos), Bean (Car), Quenville (NJD), Bitetto (NYR), Forsling (Fla),

Goalies:
Allen (Mtl). Raanta (Ari), Kivlenieks (Clb)

Well under the cap and is compliant with all the rules, as far as I can tell. Flame away!

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

32 teams do everything in their power to win the Stainley Cup and the majority of them fail miserably so I don't see how one team can just replicate the Golden Knights with a completely different selection of players and prospects and opposing teams wiser to the process. I don't see a MAF available. I don't see a Shae Theodore available. I don't see a team willing to trade them a Reilly Smith type of player for a 4th round pick. I just don't see a 78 point forward like Karlsson available on any of the unprotected lists. I'm sure they are going to find a few diamonds in the rough but I can't see them having anywhere near the success of the Knights.

I think the Knights’ success has everything to do with the way they built their team too. They picked up some decent pieces, but the management group in Vegas built a fast, absolutely relentless team that plays connected in all 3 zones and applies pressure everywhere like there’s no tomorrow. I applaud the Knights because that’s how I would’ve built my team as well. Suffocating speed and unrelenting effort.

Sort of the opposite of the Flames who prefer slow pedestrian style hockey. I guess that shouldn’t be a surprise when you hear the last 3 coaches of this team complain about the team not playing at a suitable NHL pace, especially Darryl. He coaches this team for 2 months and he’s probably ripped on their pace of play half a dozen times.

[Roof-Daddy]

lol

Vegas is an absolute juggernaut.

They've got an all-time 204-115-24 record and are about to win their 6th playoff series (7 if you count the "play-in last year) in 4 seasons.

They finished tied for Presidents trophy this season, ahd the most wins in the league, they've been to 2 conference finals and 1 cup final in 4 seasons.

Seattle would be stupid not to try and emulate that, because even if they fall short they will still be a well above average team that will easily make the playoffs every year.

If I was a betting man I would easily bet on both Vegas and Seattle to finish ahead of the Flames in the Pacific next season.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Not sure how to post a mock expansion draft, but I went into Capfriendly and basically used the consensus protection list feature (with a few edits based on my own biases) and did a quick draft. My criteria was not to protect any UFAs unless it was pretty clear they would sign (Hamilton, for example) and not to pick any UFAs (with I think one exception for Antii Raanta). Tried to pick younger guys and I loaded up with 12 defensemen, similar to what Vegas did. I ended up with:

Forwards:
Henrique (Ana), McCann (Pit), Lowry (Wpg), Nichushkin (Col), Kunin (Nas), Hartman (Min, Dumba was somehow available, a slight cheat as I think he will be protected), Asplund (Buf, lol), Archibald (Edm), Dickinson (Dal), Barbashev (Stl), Paul (Ott), Wagner (LAK), Lind (Van), Balcers (SJS), Sprong (Was)

Defense:
Gio (Cal), DeKeyser (Det), Zadorov (Chi), Cernak (TBL), Holl (Tor), Hagg (Phi), Mayfield (NYI), Clifton (Bos), Bean (Car), Quenville (NJD), Bitetto (NYR), Forsling (Fla),

Goalies:
Allen (Mtl). Raanta (Ari), Kivlenieks (Clb)

Well under the cap and is compliant with all the rules, as far as I can tell. Flame away!

Dang, Adam Lowry? If I’m Winnipeg, not a chance in the world I’m exposing Adam Lowry. Ditto for Kunin for Nashville. Kunin looks like a player.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

lol

Vegas is an absolute juggernaut.

They've got an all-time 204-115-24 record and are about to win their 6th playoff series (7 if you count the "play-in last year) in 4 seasons.

They finished tied for Presidents trophy this season, ahd the most wins in the league, they've been to 2 conference finals and 1 cup final in 4 seasons.

Seattle would be stupid not to try and emulate that, because even if they fall short they will still be a well above average team that will easily make the playoffs every year.

If I was a betting man I would easily bet on both Vegas and Seattle to finish ahead of the Flames in the Pacific next season.

I think they got lucky in a lot of ways in that Minny, Columbus, Anaheim and Pittsburgh bet on the wrong horses and gave them Tuch, Karlsson, Theodore and Fluery.

Then you have Florida hand over two top 6 forwards and bam you have half your top 9 forwards, your #1 dman and #1 goalie all handed to you on a silver platter.

Round out the group with Perron, Neal, Haula a bunch of underrated dmen and bottom 6 grinders (that eventually get replaced by the likes of Patches, Stone, Pietrangelo, Martinez etc.) and the foundation is set.

Maybe Seattle can pull it off but Vegas should hopefully be a cautionary tale for GMs.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Dang, Adam Lowry? If I’m Winnipeg, not a chance in the world I’m exposing Adam Lowry. Ditto for Kunin for Nashville. Kunin looks like a player.

You are probably correct on Lowry. The auto-protect had Appleton, I would probably expose him to Lowry. Either way, I likeable player. One of Stanley or DeMelo would be exposed as well.

Nashville is in a world of hurt. They went 4-4 to protect their D and include Fabbro. I suppose they could expose an expensive player like Duchene or Johansen, but will still lose a good player.

[flambers]

During the playoff game between the Capitals and Bruins,

One of the tv analysist thought TJ Oshie could be lost due to expansion draft.

Who knows, but I found it interesting

[Lanny_McDonald]

There are some names available on the UFA list that Seattle could leverage and get a fantastic player before anyone else has a crack at them. Like, Landeskog is there for the picking. Great player to start off with. Again, the rules are there to benefit the expansion team, and they can easily put together a very good team just on the players available on the expansion list.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by New Era

There are some names available on the UFA list that Seattle could leverage and get a fantastic player before anyone else has a crack at them. Like, Landeskog is there for the picking. Great player to start off with. Again, the rules are there to benefit the expansion team, and they can easily put together a very good team just on the players available on the expansion list.

That is true. For my list, I tried to avoid those UFAs, just because I think it would play out differently, but they could sign Landeskog, Hall, Hamilton, etc. and still make it under the cap by picking younger dudes.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

You are probably correct on Lowry. The auto-protect had Appleton, I would probably expose him to Lowry. Either way, I likeable player. One of Stanley or DeMelo would be exposed as well.

Nashville is in a world of hurt. They went 4-4 to protect their D and include Fabbro. I suppose they could expose an expensive player like Duchene or Johansen, but will still lose a good player.

The auto protect is a little flawed. It protects Lucic, for example (they may have finally changed it). It protects Gio and exposes Tanev which won’t happen. And it gets messed up with guys not under contract but who will almost certainly re-sign.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

You are probably correct on Lowry. The auto-protect had Appleton, I would probably expose him to Lowry. Either way, I likeable player. One of Stanley or DeMelo would be exposed as well.

Nashville is in a world of hurt. They went 4-4 to protect their D and include Fabbro. I suppose they could expose an expensive player like Duchene or Johansen, but will still lose a good player.

If I'm Nashville, I'm definitely trying to move one of Duchene or Johansen. Those 2 centers combined at $16M don't provide enough value for the money they're raking in. The Preds could fill a lot of holes in the line up with $8M. Always seems like a lot of players want to play there and with no state tax, they could get some good value signings.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Dang, Adam Lowry? If I’m Winnipeg, not a chance in the world I’m exposing Adam Lowry. Ditto for Kunin for Nashville. Kunin looks like a player.

Lowry signed an extension weeks ago.