Johnny Gaudreau - re-sign or trade?

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

What do you mean next year is the year they really struggle? Did you post this from the future?

Maybe I am a cynic, but I have a hard time imagining the Flames will be somehow better next year.

[redmile04]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Maybe I am a cynic, but I have a hard time imagining the Flames will be somehow better next year.

I don't think you are a cynic, look at their track record, passing the first round twice in 31 years. I agree with you and that's just being realistic, what reason have they given us that next season would be any different?

[ricardodw]

If the Flames were to sign and keep Gaudreau they would have to get rid of Gio immediately.

The team needs a culture re-work.

It appears that there were enough players that were not willing to go to war with Tkachuk and play the emotional rugged kind of game that wins long term.

[blankall]

The Gaudreau being awful in the playoffs thing is overblown. He looked great as a rookie in 2014/15. After that the team has really hung him out to dry. He simply hasn't had proper support from his line mates.

In 2018/19, Colorado's game plan against the Flames was painfully obvious. Double team and cheap shot Gaudreau. Don't worry about the rest of the team as much. At that point, Lindholm was only 24 and Tkachuk was only 21. Both were very young and inexperienced and not capable of dealing with Colorado's aggressive play. Monahan just disappeared, although in his defence he had a number of injuries. That series did, however, pretty much cement that Monahan was too one-dimensional to be effective in that kind of series as a #1 centre.

If Gaudreau has legitimate linemates that can act as a secondary threat, it prevents the double team and we see an entirely different playoff Gaudreau. If the Flames don't re-sign Gaudreau, whoever acquires him is likely to be a competitive team with more depth and going to get a serious playoff performer.

I see 3 courses of action:

1. Acquire Eichel and re-sign Gaudreau. This is the biggest dream.
2. Re-sign Gaudreau long-term to a reasonable contract and run with the current top line. Acquire good scoring depth.
3. Gaudreau makes it clear he won't re-sign. You trade him for whatever you can get. Do a massive re-tool.

[Flame On]

I'm fine with dealing Johnny if there isn't a good deal to be had with him.
I'm also fine keeping him. I'm concerned about the team's size and grit, but equally concerned with their skill level.
So on the whole if things are equal, re-sign him.

[FlamesAddiction]

Re-sign him if you can and the deal is fair market value. If not trade him him. Should be a no-brainer.

[ComixZone]

The man just declared his desire to stay yet again.

Extend this man.

...use Tkachuk or futures out the wazoo to get Eichel.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Re-sign him if you can and the deal is fair market value. If not trade him him. Should be a no-brainer.

I agree it is no-brainer. IMO for both Tkachuk and Gaudreau the debate is what is the term and cap hit that allows this team to move to be a contender. Considering other players who will get raises and this teams prospect pool and draft situation what are those numbers and do they change if you were to trade 1 or the other vs keeping both?

I'd be ok with keeping Johnny if the term was 5 years at less than $8. Around $38.75 million total dollars. If that is the case would Johnny add years to lower the cap hit from $7.75 per year to get a higher total? Lets say $7.5 for 6 years? That's $45 mil total dollars. I guess it depends on what Johnny thinks he can get at age 34-36. But he might want the guaranteed pay day? Is it worth adding on years to drive down the cap hit?

With Tkachuk he may want $9 mil per year. I'm ok with it if he gave us 8 years. But 5 years makes no sense to me because $9 mil cap hit hurts this teams chances of turning it around quickly. But it does make more sense if this team does a bit of a rebuild. But will Tkachuk ink for 8 years in Calgary if we commit to a rebuild? I doubt it.

Another interesting element to next off season is Mangiapane. His next contract isn't getting alot of attention but IMO it's going up quickly. It could be $4 to $5 mil to sign him if he keeps progressing.

Johnny at $7.75, Tkachuk at $9 and Mangiapane at $5 leaves this team in a position they will need ELC's potentially filling out the 3rd and 4th lines and you just can't have Lucic and Ryan type contracts with all these high price players. IMO the only way this makes any sense is if Lucic did get taken in the expansion draft and what will it cost to get that done? If they can find a way to get that done then maybe you can keep Johnny and Tkachuk but if not 1 has to go. Problem with Tkachuk is if Johnny goes IMO Tkachuk contract demands probably change as he might want to leave if the message is this team is rebuilding. Then it more than likely leaves the team in a spot that 5 years or less is all he will commit and that QO option becomes more inticing.

Then this team still has the Giordano issue. They need to replace him. Maybe Hanifin can do that and maybe Valmaki can replace Hanifin. But that might be way too optimistic.

So as much as it looks like it makes sense to resign if they resign for fair value there is so many moving parts IMO that it really isn't that simple

[Tkachukwagon]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1395433472550858757

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Now if they can only play the whole schedule against teams that were playing their 19th game in a month after being off the ice for 2 weeks while the Flames are playing 12 games over the same time frame.

That line was outstanding virtually every single game they played though. In those 5 games against Montreal, that played like tight playoff games, they were the best line on the ice. That’s a 16 game sample size with roughly 10-11 games that were must wins. I’m also talking a shift by shift analysis here. They had games where they could’ve had 3-4 points but ended up with only 1.

If you check Gaudreau’s game logs, you’ll see just how consistent that line was at producing. It was the best line the Flames constructed all season long and it wasn’t even close.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

In what scenario can you see Gaudreau shining in the playoffs?

How much bigger and faster and meaner does the rest of the team need to be for Gaudreau to dominate in important games?

The Flames have done a poor job of providing a supporting cast if indeed Gaudreau is the key to the team.

Gaudreau would prefer to play on a team that already has the pieces in place where protecting him and creating space is the normal way the team plays.

Johnny Gaudreau doesn’t need to be protected, guys have been trying to kill him since day 1. What Gaudreau needs is a guy to take the double team pressure off of him and that was Matthew Tkachuk in the last month there.

I’ve said it many times that Gaudreau can be absolutely lethal when he plays more off the puck and that’s what occurred in the last month. He didn’t need to exit and enter the zone every shift because Matthew Tkachuk is more than capable of this himself.

Everyone focuses on the wrong thing when talking about Gaudreau in the playoffs. It’s not about his inability to handle the physicality, it’s about the way teams defend his line on the rush. But the new top line can easily break the trap because they have 2 dynamic players to keep the defense constantly guessing. Then you have Lindholm who’s quick enough to get into the play to provide support. These 3 together would be great in the playoffs.

[868904]

I don't think it's really fair to say Gaudreau isn't elite because of his team's lack of success.

He single handedly produces offense. That makes him an elite offensive player.

He hasn't had much help of late.

If you take Draisatl away from the Oilers, even with all his greatness, does McDavid lead the Oilers to the playoffs with just RNH helping?

Eichel hasn't been able to lead his team to the playoffs on his own.

Does Crosby win as much as he has without Malkin?

Mackinnion before Rantanen, struggled.

Ovechkin didn't win much before the Caps really started to build that depth and supporting cast for him.

This season, it was pretty much Gaudreau driving the offense alone. Lindholm was the next best offensive driver but he's no where near the level of an elite offensive producer like Gaudreau.

It'd be really nice to see Gaudreau have the luxury of a similar elite offensive player to ride shotgun with like some of this compatriots have had.

[direwolf]

Just saw his interview today where he reiterated once again his desire to stay in Calgary. The guy clearly wants to re-sign here and talked about being comfortable now playing under Sutter after a rough start. I don't think he's going anywhere. The Flames will get him re-signed.

[Imported_Aussie]

The only reasons to trade IMO are if you are either worried about him long term (diet, conditioning, habits, etc.) or if the decision is to significantly retool.
Few players can impact the offence the way he does.
All of the flames big money guys have risk attached, so it is about assessing that risk too. If you were to land a guy like Eichel, then him and Gaudreau would drive the attack.
If there is a retool coming, and I say retool due to good rebuild averse ownership is, it will be with a new GM, so their assessment will factor in. Maybe that new GM wants to build around Johnny? Maybe they want to build bigger?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by blankall

The Gaudreau being awful in the playoffs thing is overblown. He looked great as a rookie in 2014/15. After that the team has really hung him out to dry. He simply hasn't had proper support from his line mates.

In 2018/19, Colorado's game plan against the Flames was painfully obvious. Double team and cheap shot Gaudreau. Don't worry about the rest of the team as much. At that point, Lindholm was only 24 and Tkachuk was only 21. Both were very young and inexperienced and not capable of dealing with Colorado's aggressive play. Monahan just disappeared, although in his defence he had a number of injuries. That series did, however, pretty much cement that Monahan was too one-dimensional to be effective in that kind of series as a #1 centre.

If Gaudreau has legitimate linemates that can act as a secondary threat, it prevents the double team and we see an entirely different playoff Gaudreau. If the Flames don't re-sign Gaudreau, whoever acquires him is likely to be a competitive team with more depth and going to get a serious playoff performer.

I see 3 courses of action:

1. Acquire Eichel and re-sign Gaudreau. This is the biggest dream.
2. Re-sign Gaudreau long-term to a reasonable contract and run with the current top line. Acquire good scoring depth.
3. Gaudreau makes it clear he won't re-sign. You trade him for whatever you can get. Do a massive re-tool.

I agree except that I think the bar is lower than "Gaudreau makes it clear he won't re-sign". I think you have to act if he equivocates at all.

[Stanley]

I know it's only meaningless games vs Canucks but damn I'm liking this Johnny/Chucky experiment...

[Macho0978]

I agree Tkachuk gaudreau and Lindholm is a very good first line. If we had more time to build around that line then I’m ok with moving forward with that line as our first line. But they still don’t match the best first lines in the NHL. They don’t match teams like Boston or Colorado. So how do we improve the 2nd line or add a cale makar type players to our team? Boston first line is old but cheap contract wise for now. So is colorado first line. But they have makar. They have elite prospects and good depth. We don’t. Johnny and Tkachuk need to give this team a break still before we can turn it around. Gio is almost done. These factors are all too important to ignore

2 more years of lucic contract too. Brower buyout is still on the books.

Love to just keep everyone and add stars but where is that coming from with our prospects and cap space?

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

The only reasons to trade IMO are if you are either worried about him long term (diet, conditioning, habits, etc.) or if the decision is to significantly retool.
Few players can impact the offence the way he does.
All of the flames big money guys have risk attached, so it is about assessing that risk too. If you were to land a guy like Eichel, then him and Gaudreau would drive the attack.
If there is a retool coming, and I say retool due to good rebuild averse ownership is, it will be with a new GM, so their assessment will factor in. Maybe that new GM wants to build around Johnny? Maybe they want to build bigger?

No, those are not the only reasons.

In fact they arent either of the biggest reasons.

They have to do one of two things.

Sign an extension and if they can't, trade him to get a return. Period.

Simply cannot get to July 1 (or whatever day that is in this ####ed up covid season) without one of those 2 things in place.

Otherwise they lose all leverage in a trade or lose him a year from now for nothing if he wants to test UFA.

[Roof-Daddy]

Didn't Tavares state publicly over and over again his desire to stay with the Isles? How he wanted to sign long term and be an islander for his whole career?

What else is Johnny going to say?

"Yeah, I know I have a year left on my contract but when that's done I'm going back closer to where I grew up, unless I get traded back east sooner"

He'd come off like an ####### if he did that.

[GioforPM]

He was pretty iffy at the end of his last season there.

"I haven't even thought about that, but now that you bring it up … I don't know," Tavares said Wednesday. "I'm just going to try to go about my business the same way.

"I don't want to signal it as the end. I'm not approaching it that way, so I'm just trying to play one game at a time and focus on finishing strong and worry about my situation in the days and weeks that come after the season and take some time to decompress from the year, and then start to look forward."

...

I hope it all works out, too, and I'm back as well. That's all I can really control right now. I just want to focus on one game at a time and finishing the season strong.

"The days and weeks ahead, I'll have plenty of time to think about it and start looking at the future and moving forward."

https://www.nhl.com/news/john-tavare...re/c-297655432