2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[shutout]

Rebuild is all about the culture and not necessarily about the attempt to tank or draft high.
A key part of rebuilding is to give your young players a chance to play and to learn.
The organization right now is at the opposite end of the rebuild spectrum.
They will finish the last three games still playing veterans instead of seeing what the prospects might do.
On this team right now with Sutter coaching there is zero chance that Monahan or Gaudreau are given opportunities to play and make the team. Monahan would go back to juniour and Gaudreau would start his career in the AHL. Because the team is focused on trying to win and be competitive, instead of looking at development and giving young players a chance.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I do agree with you there and I would rather blow it up than come back with the same roster. I am more focused on Eichel than Wright at this stage and hope the team is aggressive in shaking up the roster. Give a revised group another run with the Sutter culture set with a normal division, and fans in the building. I think Calgary could easily finish top 3 in the division. The fact is they go 2-1 in the next 3 they would make the playoffs in the pacific.

I get the push for Eichel because he's a franchise-level talent at Centre that we've otherwise been unable to draft, but I don't think it's responsible for management to part with the assets it'll require at this stage of the organization.

I recall seeing somewhere that the Flames are in the bottom 5 in the league in draft picks in the last several years, which is inexcusable based on the lack of team success. The organization should be in draft pick accumulation mode at this point to turnover the young talent, not trading the few young assets and picks we do have to, in my view, irresponsibly try to win now when the team isn't set up to.

[Lanny_McDonald]

So, to win a Stanley Cup you have to draft top three at least twice. All we need is two of Bedard, Wright, or Michkov. Does anyone know what the odds of drafting any of them are, let alone two? The odds of getting the top two picks in any draft is a crapshoot. By finishing dead last you have a better chance of drafting third than you do first or second. Drafting first or second is now nothing but luck. There are zero guarantees. So all of this tank to build through the draft nonsense is just that. Yes, build through the draft, but do it based on where you finish and try to find those gems that turn into superstars. That means stop trading away first, second, and third round picks, and use them to find your own talent. The reason this team sucks is because we have a gaping hole in the system because of all those picks given away in trades. Hard to draft a Matthew Barzal or Sebastian Aho or Brayden Point when you don't have a first, second, or third round pick.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I get the push for Eichel because he's a franchise-level talent at Centre that we've otherwise been unable to draft, but I don't think it's responsible for management to part with the assets it'll require at this stage of the organization.

I recall seeing somewhere that the Flames are in the bottom 5 in the league in draft picks in the last several years, which is inexcusable based on the lack of team success. The organization should be in draft pick accumulation mode at this point to turnover the young talent, not trading the few young assets and picks we do have to, in my view, irresponsibly try to win now when the team isn't set up to.

Dead last for picks made in the top two rounds over the last 3 years.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Dead last for picks made in the top two rounds over the last 3 years.

Staggering. That ends the conversation, IMO. We have zero business trading futures for win now. It’ll only extend the misery.

[Psytic]

I would even be happy just being a perennial contender like the Sharks were for the longest time, because we know the Flames will never tear down for a long rebuild. If Eichel could be our Thornton that's better than where they are now.

I dont think they would have been as successful for so long with out him and they traded for most of their talent (including him).. Their top 3 picks were Marleau and Brad Stuart which I think the Flames have guys that are pretty close to that caliber already. Then it was all good drafting in the lower rounds and block buster trades that kept them relevant. Its doable but the Flames need to get a stud to build around and go big game hunting for top talent not blow the equivalent of the same assets but for multiple 2nd tier players. If your going to make trades then go big otherwise keep the picks.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by New Era

So, to win a Stanley Cup you have to draft top three at least twice. All we need is two of Bedard, Wright, or Michkov. Does anyone know what the odds of drafting any of them are, let alone two? The odds of getting the top two picks in any draft is a crapshoot. By finishing dead last you have a better chance of drafting third than you do first or second. Drafting first or second is now nothing but luck. There are zero guarantees. So all of this tank to build through the draft nonsense is just that. Yes, build through the draft, but do it based on where you finish and try to find those gems that turn into superstars. That means stop trading away first, second, and third round picks, and use them to find your own talent. The reason this team sucks is because we have a gaping hole in the system because of all those picks given away in trades. Hard to draft a Matthew Barzal or Sebastian Aho or Brayden Point when you don't have a first, second, or third round pick.

If you draft top 3. Your odds of a superstar are probably pretty good. Even if it's 50% that's pretty good. What are the odds of drafting a superstar where the Flames will finish? 1%? Good luck building a contender like that.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by New Era

So, to win a Stanley Cup you have to draft top three at least twice. All we need is two of Bedard, Wright, or Michkov. Does anyone know what the odds of drafting any of them are, let alone two? The odds of getting the top two picks in any draft is a crapshoot. By finishing dead last you have a better chance of drafting third than you do first or second. Drafting first or second is now nothing but luck. There are zero guarantees. So all of this tank to build through the draft nonsense is just that. Yes, build through the draft, but do it based on where you finish and try to find those gems that turn into superstars. That means stop trading away first, second, and third round picks, and use them to find your own talent. The reason this team sucks is because we have a gaping hole in the system because of all those picks given away in trades. Hard to draft a Matthew Barzal or Sebastian Aho or Brayden Point when you don't have a first, second, or third round pick.

You've just identified in the same post that you must tank to have a chance at a top 3 pick and that you need a top 3 pick to win. So I don't know what you think you're concluding.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Hackey

If you draft top 3. Your odds of a superstar are probably pretty good. Even if it's 50% that's pretty good. What are the odds of drafting a superstar where the Flames will finish? 1%? Good luck building a contender like that.

Maybe you definition of a superstar is different than mind, but it’s certainly not 50% or more.

I expect there just as much chance of getting just an OK guy as a superstar.


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[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Hackey

If you draft top 3. Your odds of a superstar are probably pretty good. Even if it's 50% that's pretty good. What are the odds of drafting a superstar where the Flames will finish? 1%? Good luck building a contender like that.

If you go back 10 years you think 50% of the top 3 every season are superstars? I'm guessing it would be less.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Maybe you definition of a superstar is different than mind, but it’s certainly not 50% or more.

I expect there just as much chance of getting just an OK guy as a superstar.


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Going back to 1990, forwards only (feel free to quibble certain guys up or down, but it's reasonably close IMO):

Superstar (11)
Sidney Crosby Auston Matthews Evgeni Malkin
Alex Ovechkin Connor McDavid
Joe Thornton Nathan MacKinnon Aleksander Barkov
Patrick Kane Eric Lindros
Jonathan Toews

Borderline (10)

John Tavares Steven Stamkos Daniel Sedin
Vincent Lecavalier Ilya Kovalchuk Jack Eichel
Eric Staal
Leon Draisaitl
Jonathan Huberdeau
Henrik Sedin

Star (11)
Jason Spezza
Rick Nash Owen Nolan Patrick Marleau Dany Heatley
Taylor Hall Tyler Seguin Alexei Yashin
Marian Gaborik
Keith Primeau
Olli Jokinen

TBD: (4)
Nico Hischier Patrik Laine Andrei Svechnikov Pierre-Luc Dubois


Top 6(ish) (14)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Gabriel Landeskog Bobby Ryan
Sam Reinhart David Legwand
James Van Riemsdyk Petr Nedved
Jordan Staal Matt Duchene
Chris Gratton
Nathan Horton
Radek Bonk
Jonathan Drouin
J.P. Dumont

TBD 2: (6)
Kirby Dach
Jack Hughes Nolan Patrick Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Kaapo Kakko Dylan Strome



Disappointing-Bust (7)
Alexandre Daigle Pat Falloon Kyle Turris
Alex Galchenyuk
Patrik Stefan
Nail Yakupov
Alexandr Svitov



63 players; 10 are TBD, though 4 of those look certain to be 'top 6' or better.

Depending on your definition, 40-60% chance of a star or better.

About 13% chance of being pretty disappointed (though most teams salvaged some value int he end), or 26% of getting a useful, but unspectacular roster player.


Most D tend to be #2-#4 guys. Pronger, Hedman, Doughty, Niedermayer are the only superstars, but hardly any total busts.

MAF, Dipietro, Lehtonen are all the G's.

[Hackey]

Right now the Flames pick 10th. Last 20 players drafted at 10.

Cole Perfetti
Vasili Podkolzin
Evan Bouchard
Owen Tippett
Tyson Jost
Mikko Rantanen
Nick Ritchie
Valeri Nichushkin
Slater Koekkoek
Jonas Brodin
Dylan McIlrath
Magnus Paajarvi
Cody Hodgson
Keaton Ellerby
Michael Frolik
Luc Bourdon
Boris Valabik
Andrei Kostitsyn
Eric Nystrom
Dan Blackburn

I like our odds.

[powderjunkie]

Where the Cup Winning #1C's in the cap era were drafted:

79
33 - acquired via trade age 27
4
1 (3 cups)
3 (3 cups)
11 (2 cups)
63 or 45
171
19
9 - acquired by trade age 30, or 2OA (Brind'Amour played 24 mins a night in the PO's and had 18 pts; Staal played 20 mins, had 28 pts).


2C gets a bit more complicated for some teams (CHI, DET, ANA, so I'll leave those 5 cups aside):

72
5 - acquired via trade age 26
26
2 (3 cups)
11 - acquired age 27 via trade
24 - acquired via trade age 26
45 or 63
2 (or Brind'Amour at 9)


You almost always need a strong 1-2 punch at C, and you almost always have to draft them yourself, but it doesn't have to be in the top 3.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Where the Cup Winning #1C's in the cap era were drafted:

79
33 - acquired via trade age 27
4
1 (3 cups)
3 (3 cups)
11 (2 cups)
63 or 45
171
19
9 - acquired by trade age 30, or 2OA (Brind'Amour played 24 mins a night in the PO's and had 18 pts; Staal played 20 mins, had 28 pts).


2C gets a bit more complicated for some teams (CHI, DET, ANA, so I'll leave those 5 cups aside):

72
5 - acquired via trade age 26
26
2 (3 cups)
11 - acquired age 27 via trade
24 - acquired via trade age 26
45 or 63
2 (or Brind'Amour at 9)


You almost always need a strong 1-2 punch at C, and you almost always have to draft them yourself, but it doesn't have to be in the top 3.

The teams that didn't have top 3 pick centers almost always had a top 3 pick elsewhere (see: la; st. Louis)

You need to pick high to win the cup.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Going back to 1990, forwards only (feel free to quibble certain guys up or down, but it's reasonably close IMO):

Superstar (11)
Sidney CrosbyAuston MatthewsEvgeni Malkin
Alex OvechkinConnor McDavid
Joe ThorntonNathan MacKinnonAleksander Barkov
Patrick KaneEric Lindros
Jonathan Toews

Borderline (10)

John TavaresSteven Stamkos Daniel Sedin
Vincent LecavalierIlya KovalchukJack Eichel
Eric Staal
Leon Draisaitl
Jonathan Huberdeau
Henrik Sedin

Star (11)
Jason Spezza
Rick NashOwen NolanPatrick MarleauDany Heatley
Taylor HallTyler SeguinAlexei Yashin
Marian Gaborik
Keith Primeau
Olli Jokinen

TBD: (4)
Nico HischierPatrik LaineAndrei SvechnikovPierre-Luc Dubois


Top 6(ish) (14)

Ryan Nugent-HopkinsGabriel LandeskogBobby Ryan
Sam ReinhartDavid Legwand
James Van RiemsdykPetr Nedved
Jordan StaalMatt Duchene
Chris Gratton
Nathan Horton
Radek Bonk
Jonathan Drouin
J.P. Dumont

TBD 2: (6)
Kirby Dach
Jack HughesNolan PatrickJesperi Kotkaniemi
Kaapo KakkoDylan Strome



Disappointing-Bust (7)
Alexandre DaiglePat FalloonKyle Turris
Alex Galchenyuk
Patrik Stefan
Nail Yakupov
Alexandr Svitov



63 players; 10 are TBD, though 4 of those look certain to be 'top 6' or better.

Depending on your definition, 40-60% chance of a star or better.

About 13% chance of being pretty disappointed (though most teams salvaged some value int he end), or 26% of getting a useful, but unspectacular roster player.


Most D tend to be #2-#4 guys. Pronger, Hedman, Doughty, Niedermayer are the only superstars, but hardly any total busts.

MAF, Dipietro, Lehtonen are all the G's.

Thanks for this list, nice job.

Of course the original poster said 50% chance of being a superstar, not a star, which is where I speculated he was wrong.


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[Flames_F.T.W]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

Staggering. That ends the conversation, IMO. We have zero business trading futures for win now. It’ll only extend the misery.

I think trading picks for elite talent is not a problem (Hamilton). It's trading picks for guys like Hamonic, Elliott and Lazar that's the problem. None of those guys were considered elite by even the most optimistic. So picks for someone like Eichel isn't a problem IMO. It's the roster fillers like Elliott and Lazar we shouldn't be using picks to acquire

[GS Skier]

Originally Posted by Flames_F.T.W

I think trading picks for elite talent is not a problem (Hamilton). It's trading picks for guys like Hamonic, Elliott and Lazar that's the problem. None of those guys were considered elite by even the most optimistic. So picks for someone like Eichel isn't a problem IMO. It's the roster fillers like Elliott and Lazar we shouldn't be using picks to acquire

May not have read an earlier post however "picks for Eichel" ??? JUST picks ???
Just how is Calgary supposed to absorb the 10 million salary if all we trade is picks and prospects. As I said I may have missed something else you said earlier.

FWIW I don't care what Buffalo wants 90% of the potential trade partners can't afford him without shipping major salary back. Even if Buffalao wants only picks and prospects it isn't going to happen that way.

Now throw in a name like Tkachuk and your 70% of the way there. We are strong at LW. Gaudreau and Mangipane both outplayed Tkachuk this year and Pelltier is a LW not to mention Looch. Stay strong at ceneter and add to it by trading where we have some depth at LW.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Flames_F.T.W

I think trading picks for elite talent is not a problem (Hamilton). It's trading picks for guys like Hamonic, Elliott and Lazar that's the problem. None of those guys were considered elite by even the most optimistic. So picks for someone like Eichel isn't a problem IMO. It's the roster fillers like Elliott and Lazar we shouldn't be using picks to acquire

The trade for Elliot was based on him being our starting goalie.


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[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Right now the Flames pick 10th. Last 20 players drafted at 10.

Cole Perfetti
Vasili Podkolzin
Evan Bouchard
Owen Tippett
Tyson Jost
Mikko Rantanen
Nick Ritchie
Valeri Nichushkin
Slater Koekkoek
Jonas Brodin
Dylan McIlrath
Magnus Paajarvi
Cody Hodgson
Keaton Ellerby
Michael Frolik
Luc Bourdon
Boris Valabik
Andrei Kostitsyn
Eric Nystrom
Dan Blackburn

I like our odds.

Nope, the Flames have the 11th pick. If they win two of the last three games they have the 12th pick.

The Flames can only pick 10th if the Canucks go 3-0-1 and the Flames go 0-3. The chances of winning the lottery are higher than this.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Right now the Flames pick 10th. Last 20 players drafted at 10.

Cole Perfetti
Vasili Podkolzin
Evan Bouchard
Owen Tippett
Tyson Jost
Mikko Rantanen
Nick Ritchie
Valeri Nichushkin
Slater Koekkoek
Jonas Brodin
Dylan McIlrath
Magnus Paajarvi
Cody Hodgson
Keaton Ellerby
Michael Frolik
Luc Bourdon
Boris Valabik
Andrei Kostitsyn
Eric Nystrom
Dan Blackburn

I like our odds.

Well, they should aim for 11th then, and get a Forsberg, Fiala, Campbell, Ellis, Kopitar or Carter. Or maybe even an Iginla.

Calgary’s 11th picks have been Saprykin, Kidd, Marsh.