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Old 05-14-2021, 06:40 AM   #261
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In 4 years the Avs go from worst team in the NHL to winning the President’s Trophy. I believe only five current players were on the roster back in 2017.

Where will the Flames be 4 years from now?
Where are they right now? Probably there.
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Old 05-14-2021, 06:45 AM   #262
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In 4 years the Avs go from worst team in the NHL to winning the President’s Trophy. I believe only five current players were on the roster back in 2017.

Where will the Flames be 4 years from now?
The Avs are similar to the Lightning.
When they missed the playoffs, they usually finish bottom 3.
The 2013 draft is a good example of this (both of them picked top 3).

They're the opposite of the Flames. They avoid mediocrity like its the plague.
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Old 05-14-2021, 06:48 AM   #263
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The Avs are similar to the Lightning.
When they missed the playoffs, they usually finish bottom 3.
The 2013 draft is a good example of this (both of them picked top 3).

They're the opposite of the Flames. They avoid mediocrity like its the plague.
Nobody ever remembers non-playoff seasons as good times which is why if you are going to miss the playoffs you are generally better off having a bottoming out season where you draft top 3 as the Avs and Lightning have done as they have rebounded to powerhouse teams to the likes we haven't seen in Calgary since the 80's and maybe early 90's. Repeatedly finishing a few spots out of the playoffs, never drafting in the top 10 is generally a death sentence for an organization.

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Old 05-14-2021, 07:05 AM   #264
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Nobody ever remembers non-playoff seasons as good times which is why if you are going to miss the playoffs you are generally better off having a bottoming out season where you draft top 3 as the Avs and Lightning have done as they have rebounded to powerhouse teams to the likes we haven't seen in Calgary since the 80's and maybe early 90's. Repeatedly finishing a few spots out of the playoffs, never drafting in the top 10 is generally a death sentence for an organization.
Yes, drafting is a large part of it. Both of those teams have no shortage of superstars.

Another thing is that I believe both of those teams, when they missed the playoffs, were not burdened by large contracts to older players.
Even now, Colorado only has one player over 28 on contract for next season (excluding LTIR). The Flames have 6.
Good cap situations make it easy to rebound after tanking for a year.
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Old 05-14-2021, 07:14 AM   #265
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Yes, drafting is a large part of it. Both of those teams have no shortage of superstars.

Another thing is that I believe both of those teams, when they missed the playoffs, were not burdened by large contracts to older players.
Even now, Colorado only has one player over 28 on contract for next season (excluding LTIR). The Flames have 6.
Good cap situations make it easy to rebound after tanking for a year.
The Avs have a good cap situation because they have largely built from within and have avoided the temptation of UFA quick fixes. After buying out Brouwer the Flames went directly back to the UFA well with Neil. Treliving has had a rough go of it when it comes to free agency as he didn't learn from his mistakes.
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Old 05-14-2021, 07:53 AM   #266
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The Avs have a good cap situation because they have largely built from within and have avoided the temptation of UFA quick fixes. After buying out Brouwer the Flames went directly back to the UFA well with Neil. Treliving has had a rough go of it when it comes to free agency as he didn't learn from his mistakes.
Treliving got burned by UFA’s because he spent too many picks on other players. Moving 3 known picks for Hamilton you do that deal all day. The unknown picks for Hamonic? Worst move he has made as GM. Adding picks for Lazar, Elliott, Smith they really lacked the assets to make future trades. They could definitely be in the O’Rielly mix if they don’t make the Hamonic trade. The year they looked to be a contender they lacked the assets to go get Mark Stone because they already had a bare cupboard.

End of the day the 2015 run was definitely a curse as I think that pushed the timeline ahead and the players they thought would carry them in Monahan, Gaudreau and Bennett just didn’t pan out to the level they needed to in order for this build to work
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:00 AM   #267
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Treliving got burned by UFA’s because he spent too many picks on other players. Moving 3 known picks for Hamilton you do that deal all day. The unknown picks for Hamonic? Worst move he has made as GM. Adding picks for Lazar, Elliott, Smith they really lacked the assets to make future trades. They could definitely be in the O’Rielly mix if they don’t make the Hamonic trade. The year they looked to be a contender they lacked the assets to go get Mark Stone because they already had a bare cupboard.

End of the day the 2015 run was definitely a curse as I think that pushed the timeline ahead and the players they thought would carry them in Monahan, Gaudreau and Bennett just didn’t pan out to the level they needed to in order for this build to work
Lazar pick ended up being Alex Formenton
Elliott pick ended up being Jordan Kyrou
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:09 AM   #268
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The more we look back at the mishaps and missteps the more I can't believe Treliving is still employed or could still be employed after the season.
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:15 AM   #269
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The more we look back at the mishaps and missteps the more I can't believe Treliving is still employed or could still be employed after the season.
I think he earned some goodwill early in his time with pulling off some exciting deals and getting the second division banner in the last 26 years. Like you said though when you look at the current state of the team and go back and look at moves in hindsight it is pretty easy to see that a new GM should be brought in.

When the fire Treliving thread started I was pretty sure he wouldn’t be fired but now I am thinking he is going to be replaced this summer. Much like Treliving’s coaching searches I do not think the Flames will cast a wide net and I see them targeting Lombardi whose contract with the Flyers ends this summer.
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:24 AM   #270
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Yes, drafting is a large part of it. Both of those teams have no shortage of superstars.

Another thing is that I believe both of those teams, when they missed the playoffs, were not burdened by large contracts to older players.
Even now, Colorado only has one player over 28 on contract for next season (excluding LTIR). The Flames have 6.
Good cap situations make it easy to rebound after tanking for a year.
Colorado has also maximized trade value at every turn. They turned a c prospect a 2nd and a 3rd into Burakovsky (19 g 44p), who is a major part of their Offense. Donskoi (17g 31 p) at 28 on a 4 year contract as a ufa for cheap. Devon Toews, who has 31 points and is probably their 2nd best d man paired with Makar for 2 2nds (compare to Hamonic acquisition...) Nichuskin they got for nothing... Not to mention the haul from the duchene trade.
Yeah, they've been lucky drafting players like Makar, Mackinnon, and Rantanen. But they also drafted some duds like Jost... It wasn't just drafting, but really saavy timing to take advantage of other teams cap situations, patience in big trades, and some excellent UFA pickups. Sakic is an underrated GM. He and Steve Y battling at the top yet again it seems.
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:43 AM   #271
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You know what Colorado, Tampa Bay, etc all have in common - patience and asset management.

Problem with the Flames, and most Canadian teams to be honest, is that the ownership and fanbases are never patient. We always either push the chips in too early, and start making short term moves that set the teams back.

Tampa is a good example IMO.

They didn't go full "re-build" at any point. Coming out of the lockout they still had Lecavalier, Richards, Boyle, and St Louis. They ended up being really bad one season but didn't panic. They just traded Richards because he was a UFA. That got them Stamkos.

Then the next season same thing they were bad again, but they still had Lecavalier and St.Louis on the roster and didn't really "blow it up". That got them Hedman.

Two years later they lost in game 7 of the conference finals.

Then again two years later again they really sucked in the shortened season, didn't panic again though. Stuck to the plan, drafted Drouin and kept building around the same core. Two years later they were in the Stanley Cup finals losing to Chicago.

The next season they made the conference finals, but the year after that they were bad again. Missing the playoffs in 16-17.

Didn't panic again and try to tear it down or make wholesale changes, just remained patient. Make some smart deals like trading UFA Ben Bishop for Erik Cernak and others, and moved Drouin (who had asked for a trade) for Sergachev, but didn't panic and try to blow it up.

Tampa didn't win the Cup until last season which was 12 years after Stamkos was drafted and 11 years after Hedman was drafted.

Colorado was a team that went "full rebuild" but it also made a lot of sense for them at that time. They were a team that was a contender for 10-15 years prior, but then the core had aged out and it was time to reset.

Colorado finally bottomed out in 2009, drafting Duchene 3rd overall. They made the playoffs in 2 of the next 9 seasons, had a couple of blips where they weren't as patient and thought they were ready to contend (season under Roy) but that wasn't the case.

Still though over those 9 seasons they were able to draft Duchene (3rd overall), Landeskog (2nd overall), Mackinnon (1st overall), Rantanen (10th), Makar (4th), Byram (4th). Colorado was patient though, if this was a Canadian team they probably would have made alot more moves after bottoming out again after that 2016-2017 season. Mackinnon didn't look like he lived up to draft hype yet at that point, and discussion at the time was that Monahan was potentially better as he had out produced him to that point. Mackinnon only really broke out after Duchene was moved the following season, after asking for a trade. Landeskog had 33 points in 72 games that 16-17 season.

Colorado didn't panic and sell the farm though. They just used it as an opportunity to add another high quality piece, made a couple of changes, and kept building around their young core.

The best run teams always just accumulate assets, know when to sell on players, and are patient enough to build a winner over time.

Getting a Crosby and winning a cup within 4 years tends to be the exception, not the norm. And to me that still isn't really a plan, it's a lottery ticket. The Flames could finish last place in 2022 and 2023 and that still doesn't guarantee them Shane Wright, Bedard, or Michov...this organization has never had that type of lottery luck.

Hell maybe the Flames are on the right track here. Tampa (Drouin) and Colorado (Duchene) both had early picks ask for a trade away from the team and then really took off after that. Maybe Bennett asking for a trade is a good omen

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Old 05-14-2021, 09:01 AM   #272
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Fan impatience is irrelevant unless it translates into empty seats. And that’s not the case in Canadian markets, where fans turn up win or lose. If it’s griping by the media that prods the braintrust of Canadian teams to take shortcuts, then they need to grow thicker skins.
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Old 05-14-2021, 10:11 AM   #273
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Originally Posted by Erick Estrada View Post
Nobody ever remembers non-playoff seasons as good times which is why if you are going to miss the playoffs you are generally better off having a bottoming out season where you draft top 3 as the Avs and Lightning have done as they have rebounded to powerhouse teams to the likes we haven't seen in Calgary since the 80's and maybe early 90's. Repeatedly finishing a few spots out of the playoffs, never drafting in the top 10 is generally a death sentence for an organization.
It does seem that if you're not going to be a serious cup contender, it's a wise move to bottom out and rebuild by acquiring assets and youth to try to make you get back to contender territory soon rather than risk getting stuck in the sea of mediocracy that the Flames are the epitome of.

Big crossroads this offseason. Rebuild seems unlikely, but retool is likely you would hope. But I could also see them not really doing a retool, but try to ship a few pieces out for cap space via trade and/or expansion draft, and go after Hall or Hyman to try to add offensive firepower to top 6.
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Old 05-14-2021, 11:14 AM   #274
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Fan impatience is irrelevant unless it translates into empty seats. And that’s not the case in Canadian markets, where fans turn up win or lose. If it’s griping by the media that prods the braintrust of Canadian teams to take shortcuts, then they need to grow thicker skins.
I don’t know if I agree that it is not the case with Canadian markets? I had a hell of a time selling my season tickets at my own cost when the team was in 1st place in the west in 2019.

I am 100% behind the team and will attend games even if they go tankbuild but I am canceling my season tickets if that is the road they take. Part of that decision is recently moving to the burbs from being a 10-15 minute drive to the dome to a 30 minute drive, the increased cost of living for the new house, but if this team makes moves this offseason like acquiring Eichel I am going to keep those seats.

There could be people on the other side of the fence where they will get rid of their tickets because they are sick of the mediocrity and would prefer to watch a team like the 13-14 Flames who tanked but played hard every game?

I do agree with your take on the media having some influence on owners and GM’s looking to make changes but having said that the media mocked the Flames for years from 10-13 about the team not rebuilding when they should and Edwards and Co. were not phased.
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Old 05-14-2021, 11:30 AM   #275
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Yeah man, if this team is out of the playoffs by December the dome is half empty unless another Canadian team is in town

Even the Oilers/Jets stopped selling out every game before the pandemic

The days of full houses no matter what are over IMO

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Old 05-14-2021, 12:15 PM   #276
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If NHL was using the 3-2-1 point systems if my math is correct, Flames would still be in a hunt for last PO place.

Habs: 20 regulation wins = 60 points
3 OT + 1 SO wins = 8 points
11 OTL = 11 points
Total 79 points

Flames with 3 games left:

21 Regulation wins = 63 points
2 OT + 1 SO wins = 6 points
3 OTL = 3 points
Total 72 points


7 points back with 3 remaining:

So 2 reg wins + OTL or 1 reg win and 2 OT/SO wins would have been good enough as Flames have the ROW covered.
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Old 05-14-2021, 12:22 PM   #277
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Fan impatience is irrelevant unless it translates into empty seats. And that’s not the case in Canadian markets, where fans turn up win or lose. If it’s griping by the media that prods the braintrust of Canadian teams to take shortcuts, then they need to grow thicker skins.
In fact, we fans are such lemmings that if they declared a full tank and rebuild, fan interest would likely increase at the prospect and hope of becoming a contender.

Expectations would be low, and hockey would be fun again.
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Old 05-14-2021, 12:40 PM   #278
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Lazar pick ended up being Alex Formenton
Elliott pick ended up being Jordan Kyrou
Who would Calgary have picked? Could have been Zach Lauzon and Pascal Laberge.
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Old 05-14-2021, 12:51 PM   #279
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Who would Calgary have picked? Could have been Zach Lauzon and Pascal Laberge.
Alex debrincat or sam Gerard

That was a loaded draft
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Old 05-14-2021, 12:53 PM   #280
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Alex debrincat or sam Gerard

That was a loaded draft
2 drafts 16 (Elliott) and 17 (Lazar)
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