Flames' Advanced Statistics

[theinfinitejar]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Brad Treliving is a big analytics guy, it's the first thing I heared about him the day he arrived here and I think it's fair to say, that the direction he's gone after is a higher shot volume, possession style game. Now I don't know what other top analytics players who were available at the time that we can compare the players you mentioned to, but what I do know is that Treliving team's have proven to be analytics darlings over his time here, but they can't get over the hump and they consistently disappoint year in and year out in the same type of manner.

I'm not saying I'm against advanced stats or analytics or anything, I want to make that clear. But what I am saying is that this team has lacked quality shooters which I've mentioned constantly in the past and that glaring problem still has not been rectified. If anything, it's worse than past years. That falls on Treliving's decision making, his pro scouting team and his overall philosophy.

I don't believe this, a big analytics guy doesn't trade a 1st and 2 2nds for Travis Hamonic or sign the Brouwer contract.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by theinfinitejar

I don't believe this, a big analytics guy doesn't trade a 1st and 2 2nds for Travis Hamonic or sign the Brouwer contract.

Good point. Maybe there is a formula error in one of the cells.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They don't finish their chances

No it's not the .905 goal tending of Markstrom holding them back. He has been .930 and under 2 goals against in his last 12 yet the Flames only have six wins.

Well they have 7 wins in those games. If they played at that pace for all 56 games they would have finished with 65 points and they would have made the playoffs.

His save percentage in his last 12 games is .922, not .930, over his past 12 games (260 saves on 282 shots). If he could have kept up that pace all year, he would have had the 6th best save percentage in the NHL, just behind Mike Smith and the Flames would have made the playoffs.

Alas, his save percentage for the rest of the season was .898 (717 saves on 798 shots) and the Flames were 12-14-2 in those games.

[timbit]

The Flames best players , for the most part, performed poorly over the first 40 games.

Result is no playoffs .

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well they have 7 wins in those games. If they played at that pace for all 56 games they would have finished with 65 points and they would have made the playoffs.

His save percentage in his last 12 games is .922, not .930, over his past 12 games (260 saves on 282 shots). If he could have kept up that pace all year, he would have had the 6th best save percentage in the NHL, just behind Mike Smith and the Flames would have made the playoffs.

Alas, his save percentage for the rest of the season was .898 (717 saves on 798 shots) and the Flames were 12-14-2 in those games.

So the team has enough scoring?
Price has a .901 and Allen has a .908...their team has 9 more points

Markstom could have stole more games I guess...for me most of the times he got lit up the Flames only scored 1 goal anyway. Its not like they were losing 7-6 because Markstrom blew it.


Markstrom can be better but scoring is still #1. Team save% is better than their shooting percentage rankings.

Rittich won 4 of 12 games with the same team in front of him

Flames have allowed 2 more goals than the Oilers, 15 less than the Habs

[bigpete]

Interesting stats. I'd have assumed from watching the games that they would have bad advanced stats. They didn't seem to generate very many high danger scoring chances, very few odd man rushes, etc. Did they score a single goal all year with the goalie pulled at the end of the game? Most of the time when they were down a goal at the end of a game they were lucky to even get a shot within the last two minutes.

There were very few losses this year where I thought "Flames played great, they deserved a better fate in this one"

[bigpete]

I do think the ones to take the most blame should be Monahan and Tkachuk who were MIA most of the season. I hope we find out that they both had injury issues that can be fixed for next season.

Same with Markstrom, he was meh for a good chunk of the season, but I think we can cut him some slack since there's a good chance it was related to his injury.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by dino7c

So the team has enough scoring?

Of course this wasn't a great season in terms of scoring.

This is because guys like Hanifin, Tanev, Nesterov, Andersson were not very productive on the backend, and guys like Nordstrom and Ritchie had no business being in our top nine at any point this season.

This is also because Sean Monahan had a miserable season that has seen him demoted from first line center to third line left wing

This is also because Matthew Tkachuk had a miserable season that saw him post the by-far worst SH% of his career (7.9%... down from 13.9% over the three years prior).

It was definitely not a great year on the scoring front.

However - it's easier to score when you're in tied games or you have leads. The Flames goaltending:

1) Failed to keep games tied when they needed to
2) Failed to keep games within one goal when Calgary fell behind

These two factors allow opponents to simplify and go into defensive shells.

The fact of the matter is this:

The Flames' expected goals for was 135.05 and they scored 137 goals
The Flames' expected goals against was 124.10 and they allowed 148 goals.

If we got 24 more saves from our goalies (so league average goaltending), and still scored two fewer goals, we cruise to the playoffs with a +11 goal differential

[dino7c]

Yet the Habs have allowed 15 more goals and are 9 points up

Blaming it all on the goalie is just...ffs really

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Yet the Habs have allowed 15 more goals and are 9 points up

The Habs had the easiest schedule to start the year. That's where they scored those "fifteen more goals"



They got to face Koskinen twice against the Oilers twice

They got to face a Van team that struggled to play anything resembling defense out of the gate five times

They got to face a Ward-coached Flames team twice.

These were nine of their first ten games.

They've come right back down to Earth since then, and over a normal 82 game season would not have made the playoffs or outscored Calgary.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The Habs had the easiest schedule to start the year. That's where they scored those "fifteen more goals"



They got to face Koskinen twice against the Oilers twice

They got to face a Van team that struggled to play anything resembling defense out of the gate five times

They got to face a Ward-coached Flames team twice.

These were nine of their first ten games.

They've come right back down to Earth since then, and over a normal 82 game season would not have made the playoffs or outscored Calgary.

He said “allowed 15 more” not “scored 15 more”.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The Habs had the easiest schedule to start the year. That's where they scored those "fifteen more goals"



They got to face Koskinen twice against the Oilers twice

They got to face a Van team that struggled to play anything resembling defense out of the gate five times

They got to face a Ward-coached Flames team twice.

These were nine of their first ten games.

They've come right back down to Earth since then, and over a normal 82 game season would not have made the playoffs or outscored Calgary.

Allowed 15 more. Flames have allowed fewer than the Jets or Habs...allowed 2 more than the Oilers. Those teams score goals though.

If you think the bulk of the blame for this season is on Markstrom we are never going to agree

FFS Ritchie, Leivo, Simon in the top six at times

Monahan and Tkachuk look like 3rd liners...probably flattering to Monahan.

[DeluxeMoustache]

The offence wasn’t good enough

The goalies weren’t good enough

Advanced stats looked okay due to a high number of shots from outside but really it was #### hockey to watch

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Blaming it all on the goalie is just...ffs really

When you drop 6 million dollars on a goalie, instead of re-signing your previous goalie for 3.66 million, I think you expect the new goalie to likely at least match the .919 you got from the other goalie the year before. You are kinda making a call that you would rather spend that extra 2.3 million on the goalie rather than maybe using it on another forward. I think it is pretty obvious that goaltending was a huge failing this year. Even Markstrom's recent heater was only marginally better than Talbot was over 26 games all of last year.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

When you drop 6 million dollars on a goalie, instead of re-signing your previous goalie for 3.66 million, I think you expect the new goalie to likely at least match the .919 you got from the other goalie the year before. You are kinda making a call that you would rather spend that extra 2.3 million on the goalie rather than maybe using it on another forward. I think it is pretty obvious that goaltending was a huge failing this year. Even Markstrom's recent heater was only marginally better than Talbot was over 26 games all of last year.

I have said multiple times he has to be better, I am arguing

"almost singly handedly cost them a playoff spot"

For me, scoring is by far the #1 reason. Flames goals against is better than multiple playoff teams

[Joborule]

I agree with dino7c that the biggest problem with the Flames was goal scoring. No matter how much you want to blame goaltending for Flames not having enough wins, and somehow saying it's also why Flames couldn't score more goals (that's a new one to me), the fact of the matter is the Flames are the 7th worst team in the league for goals for per game average at 2.63, while they we're 16th for goals against per game average at 2.85.

In a league where you typically need to score at least 3 goals per game to win, the Flames were unable to do that. And I said the trend of the league with goal scoring increasing, the offense needs to carry goalies more than before. Games where your goalie only lets in 2 goals should be considered great games by them.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Joborule

I agree with dino7c that the biggest problem with the Flames was goal scoring. No matter how much you want to blame goaltending for Flames not having enough wins, and somehow saying it's also why Flames couldn't score more goals (that's a new one to me), the fact of the matter is the Flames are the 7th worst team in the league for goals for per game average at 2.63, while they we're 16th for goals against per game average at 2.85.

In a league where you typically need to score at least 3 goals per game to win, the Flames were unable to do that. And I said the trend of the league with goal scoring increasing, the offense needs to carry goalies more than before. Games where your goalie only lets in 2 goals should be considered great games by them.

And at the same time, be careful giving goalies too much credit for good numbers under Darryl Sutter.

The game plan is D first. On the offence side, top scorers Iggy and Kopitar both got around 70 points under Sutter and 90 points immediately under the next coach.

As for goalies, Jonathan Quick from 2011-17 was consistently below 2.30, with one horrendous outlier of 2.45. Kipper obviously had 1.70 and 2.07

That’s nothing to gloss over. It’s kind of the whole point with Darryl

In fact, there were some games where Markstrom had something like 3 chances against, 2 goals allowed. Which is a lot worse than 15 chances against and 3 allowed

Also, let’s revisit that double pad stack against Montreal in a 2-1 loss. I’m not sure who else selects that save when a guy carries it across the slot and shoots, it’s usually a desperation save for a quick cross crease pass. It sure left him in a heap with no chance at all to recover for another shot anytime soon. But we can’t talk about that because it was only the second goal, and he had a good game otherwise.

Low event hockey flatters the goalie statistically but leaves no margin for error

Totally agree the Flames goal scoring wasn’t good enough.

But their goaltending wasn’t either. 6x6

They were both problems

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Makarov

I haven't seen a lot of discussion regarding the Flames advanced statistics this season. I think they're interesting. The Flames rank 7th in the league for CF%, 7th in the league for xGF%, and 8th in the league for SCF%. Those are the advanced statistics of a team solidly in the playoffs (likely with home ice advantage in at least the first round.)

So... why weren't the Flames able to translate those statistics into wins?

Brian Burke once said of analytics “they’re like a lamp post to a drunk - Useful for support, less so for illumination.”

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Brian Burke once said of analytics “they’re like a lamp post to a drunk - Useful for support, less so for illumination.”

Yes, but when you're staggering drunk, you need support, not illumination.

And I'm drunk most of the time.

[dino7c]

"low event hockey" needs a little work

Its easy to say the Jets didn't get many shots/chances the other night...and true but the shots

Breakaway, 2 on 1, 2 on 0, guy wide open in the slot.

Flames have been good most of the time but then have some ridiculous break downs

2 on 0 against on the PP should never happen