Bedard/Michkov Sweepstakes

[howard_the_duck]

This team minus Gaudreau, Monahan, Giordano, and the potential of moving on from another core piece like Tkachuk if he proves too expensive, fundamentally changes the team's makeup in ~2 years time.

Should it go that way, it all depends on what those assets are moved for. If they're for futures/picks, then this thing could very well bottom out. If they're hockey deals, then the wheel keeps turning and there's likely too much depth elsewhere on the roster to be a top 5 pick contender.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Can the anti-tankers name teams who have won Cups in the last 15 years who did not have any top-3 picks on the roster?

Tanking doesn’t guarantee success. But not tanking almost guarantees never being elite. That’s just the way the NHL is designed.

I'm not sure if this was directed at me, all I'm saying is that I doubt Flames owners would be ok with having a crap team with no guarantee of anything. I just don't think they'd do it. And I don't think Sutter signed on with the idea of a massive rebuild.

If the owners and management decide to blow it up and tank for a few years, sign me up. I've said for a long time, and it's been mentioned in this thread as well, that this team is never really good enough to win it all, and never bad enough to get those top picks. Always in no-man's land. I don't see that changing anytime soon but maybe this franchise will surprise me and actually blow it all up. Wouldn't bet any money on it though.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

The thing is over 20 years every team will have up and downs, and should have a top 3 pick.

Usually those top 3 picks make you better, you rise up and contend, and then it resets. Good players are picked in early picks. Good players equal better team success. Anyone disputing this is dilussional.

SOMEHOW (Incompetence?) the Flames are the exception to the cycle the rest of the teams experience. We have never had a top 3 pick. We never had the "rise up" cycle in the past 15 years.

The only rise up cycle we had was when we managed to trade for a goalie who put together arguably the greatest 3 years in NHL history.

You could argue in the past 30 years we have never been part of the typical NHL cycle of Good Team/Bad Team. We are MEH team.

The Flames have Monahan #6, Lindholm #5 and Bennett #4 Hannifin #5 and Tkachuk #6.

All of these guys had the credentials to be top 3 . Flames might have picked them had they been in the #3 slot.

Tkachuk got the #2 best contract of the 2016 draft class in 2019

[868904]

We all know the Flames won't be getting any of these guys or Shane Wright.

The Oilers will probably win the cup this year and then suck the next two years and win the respective lotteries to draft 2 of the 3. You can't beat the Oilers in lottery wins.

[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Can the anti-tankers name teams who have won Cups in the last 15 years who did not have any top-3 picks on the roster?

Tanking doesn’t guarantee success. But not tanking almost guarantees never being elite. That’s just the way the NHL is designed.

The 2011 Boston Bruins did have Seguin, but got that pick by trading Kessel who they drafted 5th overall. My memory is a bit fuzzy but I don't think Seguin was a game breaker back then either, so they could very well have won the cup without him. Otherwise, they've never really tanked in recent memory and I'd say there have been a lot of elite Boston teams over the years, including the last few. The Boston model seems hard to emulate but it is possible.

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by delayedreflex

The 2011 Boston Bruins did have Seguin, but got that pick by trading Kessel who they drafted 5th overall. My memory is a bit fuzzy but I don't think Seguin was a game breaker back then either, so they could very well have won the cup without him. Otherwise, they've never really tanked in recent memory and I'd say there have been a lot of elite Boston teams over the years, including the last few. The Boston model seems hard to emulate but it is possible.

Just have to draft a hall of fame 1C, and another 1C in the second round, and sign a hall of fame defenseman as a free agent, and then find another hall of fame (if he wasn’t a headcase) goalie out of nowhere in europe.

Definitely doable.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

If the Flames traded 2-3 of its prime age assets for picks and prospects, they would be well-placed both to draft in the top 5 for at least a couple seasons, and to use that surplus of picks to build up a very strong prospect base. Not that I think it will happen.

This. Exactly this.

Giordano (go chase a Cup)
Monahan
Gaudreau
Tkachuk

Get as many high end futures as you can for those players. I would also look at moving Backlund and Hanifin for futures too.

Plus, be willing to take on bad contracts in order to increase the returns.

They could have a huge surplus of futures built up, and be in the running for Wright/Bedard/Michkov over the next two seasons. Need to get lucky for sure, but the team they have now is going nowhere but mediocrity-ville. It's not a contender.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

This. Exactly this.

Giordano (go chase a Cup)
Monahan
Gaudreau
Tkachuk

Get as many high end futures as you can for those players. I would also look at moving Backlund and Hanifin for futures too.

Plus, be willing to take on bad contracts in order to increase the returns.

They could have a huge surplus of futures built up, and be in the running for Wright/Bedard/Michkov over the next two seasons. Need to get lucky for sure, but the team they have now is going nowhere but mediocrity-ville. It's not a contender.

100%.

There's less uncertainty in this 'scorched earth' approach with the caliber of talent coming in the next few drafts. If there's a time to do it, it's now.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The Flames have Monahan #6, Lindholm #5 and Bennett #4 Hannifin #5 and Tkachuk #6.

All of these guys had the credentials to be top 3 . Flames might have picked them had they been in the #3 slot.

Tkachuk got the #2 best contract of the 2016 draft class in 2019

Well, no. In each of those years there were clear 1-3 picks which didn’t include those players, with the exception of Bennett’s year, where he was in a 2-4 group of interchangeable centres.

Monahan/Lindholm/Hanifin’s year the top 4 was Mackinnon (easily) and Barkov and Drouin with Jones going top 4 to any team that needed D. Now, in a redraft arguably Lindholm or Monahan go 3 because Drouin’s been a bit of a bust. But that’s big time hindsight.

Tkachuk’s year had the big 3 - Matthews, Laine and Puljujarvi. It was a shock that Dubois got picked ahead of Puljujarvi, who was considered NHL ready, but the position won out there. And the Flames have outright said they’d have picked Dubois if he was available.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

100%.

There's less uncertainty in this 'scorched earth' approach with the caliber of talent coming in the next few drafts. If there's a time to do it, it's now.

It’s over the next year. The next draft is meh. The two after are sure gold though.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It’s over the next year. The next draft is meh. The two after are sure gold though.

Thing is teams are going to be hesitant to trade anything in 2022 or 2023 that isn't lottery protected.

I wonder if there is a way to try to trade 2022 Picks that are lottery protected, and default to 2023 in that case.

That way if the team sucks in 2022 that pick rolls over, and becomes an unprotected 2023 pick.

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Thing is teams are going to be hesitant to trade anything in 2022 or 2023 that isn't lottery protected.

I wonder if there is a way to try to trade 2022 Picks that are lottery protected, and default to 2023 in that case.

That way if the team sucks in 2022 that pick rolls over, and becomes an unprotected 2023 pick.

I'm sure teams that will be trading away their 2022 first rounders will have Bedard/Michkov in the back of their minds.

We might see a situation where the picks may roll over two years. Perhaps the team gets a 2023 second rounder (or 3rd?) as compensation for having it roll over twice.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It’s over the next year. The next draft is meh. The two after are sure gold though.

Agreed. I'd envision that roster turnover over the next ~year.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

This. Exactly this.

Giordano (go chase a Cup)
Monahan
Gaudreau
Tkachuk

Get as many high end futures as you can for those players. I would also look at moving Backlund and Hanifin for futures too.

Plus, be willing to take on bad contracts in order to increase the returns.

They could have a huge surplus of futures built up, and be in the running for Wright/Bedard/Michkov over the next two seasons. Need to get lucky for sure, but the team they have now is going nowhere but mediocrity-ville. It's not a contender.

Lindholm tops the list of players that need to be moved followed by Markstrom if the goal is tanking. Why have a bargain contract for 3 years when the plan is to suck for all of those? No need to have a 31 year old goalie who can steal you games if you don’t plan to compete until he is near the end of his career. Lastly you need to dump Sutter who is likely going to keep this team out of the bottom 3

Those 3 pieces are the first to move if tanking is the goal

[Dienasty]

Originally Posted by delayedreflex

The 2011 Boston Bruins did have Seguin, but got that pick by trading Kessel who they drafted 5th overall. My memory is a bit fuzzy but I don't think Seguin was a game breaker back then either, so they could very well have won the cup without him. Otherwise, they've never really tanked in recent memory and I'd say there have been a lot of elite Boston teams over the years, including the last few. The Boston model seems hard to emulate but it is possible.

He had two fantastic games against Tampa in the conference finals. Otherwise didn't do much. But that was a 7 game series and his 4 points in a 6-5 win ended up being huge. He only averaged about 12 minutes a game.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Lindholm tops the list of players that need to be moved followed by Markstrom if the goal is tanking. Why have a bargain contract for 3 years when the plan is to suck for all of those? No need to have a 31 year old goalie who can steal you games if you don’t plan to compete until he is near the end of his career. Lastly you need to dump Sutter who is likely going to keep this team out of the bottom 3

Those 3 pieces are the first to move if tanking is the goal

That high end talent isn't unlike other teams have. Anaheim has an elite goaltender and doesn't have any problem being a poor hockey club.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Scorching the earth would be fun because it would be something different. I'm all for that.
But I just don't think that's what they are going to do

[dammage79]

Well, all new arenas host the draft so let's hope the 2045 draft is epic!

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

That high end talent isn't unlike other teams have. Anaheim has an elite goaltender and doesn't have any problem being a poor hockey club.

Add in guys like Kane Eichel doughty kopitar. You can have good players and finish bottom 3 in league

Kings have 2 stars and managed to finish 2nd last and 4th last.

If this team trades Johnny for picks and does nothing else they probably finish bottom 5 just moving out 1 guy. I’m saying stop there but you don’t need to move everyone. They are bottom 10 right now and hardly have any injury concerns this year

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Scorching the earth would be fun because it would be something different. I'm all for that.
But I just don't think that's what they are going to do

IMO it's what they should do.

IMO not a chance in hell they do it though.