[News] Lucic has agreed to waive his NMC for the expansion draft

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

They will if they're smart.

Nostalgia has no place in this business if you're intent on doing big things.

Seems like a really dumb move...Gio is still a really good player and has value if the Flames do poorly next season.

I would rather give them someone who can't crack the roster or clears waivers but that's just me.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

No, but I bet you want to protect Phillips over Backlund.

I just think they should expose Backlund, really. It's not really about protecting Phillips. If they do expose Backlund, they have to protect a seventh forward. Phillips would make the most sense.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Everyone's opinions are influenced by observation bias. Mine included. But do you have any evidence to support your argument that Monahan appears to be regressing faster than Backlund?

Monahan is in the midst of his worst production season ever and he's basically neck-and-neck with Backlund. He's six years younger and signed for a million dollars more. I think there's a lot more evidence to support the idea that Monahan could easily rebound (and provide good value) than there is to reinforce Backlund's case.

I think, with Monahan, a lot of people's disillusionment has been borne out of what he's been in the past and the expectations that have come with that. But, in terms of points, Backlund's best offensive seasons have only really matched Monahan's worst output. And we're getting to the point where Backlund's underlyings have regressed, suggesting his production might not be long for this league.

And I would never suggest Gawdin could replace Backlund. I'm not really a fan of Gawdin's NHL potential.

Let me make this a bit clearer - Monahan is 'regressing' just as much as Backlund is 'regressing' - and if you understand where I am coming from, my point is that Backlund is NOT regressing, so therefore neither is Monahan.


I do worry about Monahan's wrists (or whatever his injury may be that he is playing through). If you notice my posts, I don't think I have disparaged Monahan, or felt the need to trade him. I think he will bounce-back.


With that being said, what do you mean that Monahan is more likely to bounce-back than Backlund? Backlund doesn't need to bounce back. Backlund has 27 points in 44 games playing tough minutes trying to shut-down the other team and playing with a revolving cast of line mates. He is producing well, and is even being more leaned on by Darryl. He is not a 'bounce-back' candidate because he does not need to 'bounce back' at all.



That's where this argument differs. Whatever this team is going through, Backlund is the least of the issues here. Losing him would be a huge blow. Now you are having to utilize Monahan and Lindholm in a more shut-down role, and having to use other players to soak up those minutes. Suddenly you have to retain Ryan, since the Flames already traded Bennett away, so there won't be anyone to hold down the 3rd line centre position, and makes line matching more difficult.



I can not disagree enough that Backlund is 'regressing'. That's the point I am trying to make.



Comparing Monahan and Backlund head to head is kind of beside the point - they are deployed differently, and expectations are different. You aren't playing Backlund his entire contract to produce points, but rather you pay him what he makes because he helps your team all over the ice. Making a comparison from a goal/dollar or point/dollar is way to simplistic of a model to properly analyze (much less fairly analyze) the two players. I don't understand why you would approach it this way.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I just think they should expose Backlund, really. It's not really about protecting Phillips. If they do expose Backlund, they have to protect a seventh forward. Phillips would make the most sense.

You don’t expose a player in the hopes he gets taken. If you are doing that you may as well trade Backlund even if you retain salary, so you at least get something for him.

You only really expose players if you want to protect someone else, IMO.

[dino7c]

If they were going to leave Backlund unprotected they would have traded him at the deadline IMO

[Strange Brew]

If you want to lose a player for nothing you put him on waivers. Give the whole league a crack at them.

This is a protected list. I’m pretty confident Backlund gets protected especially with the coach now. For that reason he’s also not a guy I see getting traded.

Seattle are welcome to Mr. Phillips if that’s who they want. If so hope he gets a crack at making the roster.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I just think they should expose Backlund, really. It's not really about protecting Phillips. If they do expose Backlund, they have to protect a seventh forward. Phillips would make the most sense.

There's your problem - you are going about it backwards.

It isn't about choosing who to expose, it is about choosing who to protect. And Backlund has more value than Gawdin or Phillips. If you don't want Backlund on your roster any more, trade him.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I would be exposing Rasmus TBH

That makes no sense.

Yes, Andersson has had an off year. But he is 24, and progression isn't linear. Last year, he proved (at 23) that he is a top 4 defenseman. He struggled this year with Gio, but I always thought that was a bad pairing and they were used poorly. When he was with Hanifin, they were great.

I fully suspect that next year, with a fresh start, Andersson will be right back on track. He was decent value this year, even as an off year, at $4.5M. If he gets back on track next year, he is a huge bargain.

And again, he is 24.

[Strange Brew]

I believe in Rasmus and that he can rebound. But man there is a lot of real estate to cover between his play right now and huge bargain at $4.5 million.

[timbit]

23 year old 5’7” 135-140 lb wingers who have not proven themselves as prolific scorers in the minors, don’t get protected, in place of quality center assets like Backlund.

That makes zero sense.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Backlund is in the midst of a season that is slightly bucking his recent trends. But it's not a big enough improvement to convince me his results since around 2017 aren't still in decline.

Per Evolving-Hockey, here are Backlund's even-strength defensive Goals Above Replacement results since the lockout.

2012-13: 1.6 goals above replacement (5th on CGY)
2013-14: 3.2 goals above replacement (3rd on CGY)
2014-15: 1.3 goals above replacement (8th on CGY)
2015-16: 3.3 goals above replacement (1st on CGY)
2016-17: -2.5 goals above replacement (22nd on CGY)
2017-18: 0.4 goals above replacement (12th on CGY)
2018-19: -1.5 goals above replacement (19th on CGY)
2019-20: -0.9 goals above replacement (21st on CGY)
2020-21: 0.9 goals above replacement (8th on CGY)

Backlund was once consistently an excellent defensive play-driver. He has regressed in his own end and is now being propped up by his largely positive offensive results (although those, too, have declined). That is also reflected in his expected goals against results, which actually paint him as generally mediocre defensively even at his perceived peak. But GAR is a lot more nuanced than raw xGA.

(rankings min. 10 GP)

2012-13: 2.05 xGA/60 (5th on CGY)
2013-14: 2.06 xGA/60 (10th on CGY)
2014-15: 2.21 xGA/60 (10th on CGY)
2015-16: 2.08 xGA/60 (6th on CGY)
2016-17: 2.18 xGA/60 (13th on CGY)
2017-18: 2.13 xGA/60 (8th on CGY)
2018-19: 2.3 xGA/60 (21st on CGY)
2019-20: 2.43 xGA/60 (14th on CGY)
2020-21: 1.9 xGA/60 (7th on CGY)

That's interesting ... have to admit I wasn't aware of that.

Maybe Sutter and Backlund are on the same page, and he's seeing a return to what we saw in previous seasons?

Either way he's been really solid this year.

[Deegee]

Its probably been said in this thread already, but its pretty awesome for Big Looch to do that.

Flames have kind of been a let down, but really like Lucic on the club.

[Burning Beard]

Lucic is right there with Mangiapane and Tanev as my favorite flames at the moment.

[Infinit47]

I'm waiting for the Oilers media spin to say he would never have waived in Edmonton because no player would possibly leave their historic franchise with McDavid ready to hoist another 5 cups.

They lost this trade by pretty much any measure. I've grown to appreciate Lucic, and could see Seattle wanting a player like him to set the tone in their locker room.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

I'm waiting for the Oilers media spin to say he would never have waived in Edmonton because no player would possibly leave their historic franchise with McDavid ready to hoist another 5 cups.

They lost this trade by pretty much any measure. I've grown to appreciate Lucic, and could see Seattle wanting a player like him to set the tone in their locker room.

Didn’t he waive to get out of there when we traded for him?

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Didn’t he waive to get out of there when we traded for him?

Haha. Yes he did. but like an Oilers fan, I guess I don't let the facts get in the way if a good story.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Didn’t he waive to get out of there when we traded for him?

Yes, he did, but specifically for the purposes of that trade. Now it seems that he agreed to waive it again for the expansion draft when discussing the potential trade with Treliving. But if the Flames want to trade him or send him to the minors, he will have to waive it again.

It would have been crazy to make the trade in the first place without this agreement in place, and it's encouraging to hear that there may indeed be such an agreement.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

I'm waiting for the Oilers media spin to say he would never have waived in Edmonton because no player would possibly leave their historic franchise with McDavid ready to hoist another 5 cups.

They lost this trade by pretty much any measure. I've grown to appreciate Lucic, and could see Seattle wanting a player like him to set the tone in their locker room.

Checked the other place and they are now down to (a) it’s easier to buy out Neal and (b) Neal is only bad because he got COVID.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

Yes, he did, but specifically for the purposes of that trade. Now it seems that he agreed to waive it again for the expansion draft when discussing the potential trade with Treliving. But if the Flames want to trade him or send him to the minors, he will have to waive it again.

It would have been crazy to make the trade in the first place without this agreement in place, and it's encouraging to hear that there may indeed be such an agreement.

I think that Lucic as a condition of the trade to Calgary he agreed to waive it for expansion. This is not new news.


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[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Seems like a really dumb move...Gio is still a really good player and has value if the Flames do poorly next season.

I would rather give them someone who can't crack the roster or clears waivers but that's just me.

Which one of Hanifin, Tanev or Andersson can't crack Seattle's roster?