Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Go Back   Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community > Event Forums > COVID-19 Forum

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 04-17-2021, 11:06 AM   #3381
EldrickOnIce
Franchise Player
 
EldrickOnIce's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
Exp:
Default

This is a really good read on AZ

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/cont...ts-safety.html
EldrickOnIce is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to EldrickOnIce For This Useful Post:
GGG
Old 04-17-2021, 11:36 AM   #3382
opendoor
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Exp:
Default

That is a good article. One issue though, I think they're sort of misinterpreting that chart from the UK. The risk/benefit chart they show is based on 20 cases per 10K per day, and they conflate Ontario's current situation (20 cases per 10K per week) to that, when Ontario is actually more like 3 cases per 10K per day. So that would be closer to the low exposure risk chart here:




And that's based on a 4 month exposure risk at that level. If the delay for getting different vaccine is more like a month, then the ICU admission gets cut by 3/4, at which point the potential harms outweigh the benefits for people under 40.

That said, those risks and benefits aren't the same for everyone even within an age cohort. So for a 35 year old male who works in a job with a high chance of exposure and/or might be more predisposed to serious outcomes from COVID, getting AZ likely outweighs any risks. On the other hand, a healthy 30 year old woman who works from home is almost surely better off waiting for a different vaccine based on those numbers. So to me, opening it up to younger people (probably 35+ or 40+) with a clear outline of the risks so they can make informed consent is the way to do it.
opendoor is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to opendoor For This Useful Post:
Old 04-17-2021, 02:59 PM   #3383
Jiri Hrdina
Franchise Player
 
Jiri Hrdina's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Exp:
Default

This won't help

https://www.660citynews.com/2021/04/...ase-in-canada/
Jiri Hrdina is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2021, 03:36 PM   #3384
Julio
First Line Centre
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Olympic Saddledome
Exp:
Default

nm
__________________
"The Oilers are like a buffet with one tray of off-brand mac-and-cheese and the rest of it is weird Jell-O."
Greg Wyshynski, ESPN

Last edited by Julio; 04-17-2021 at 03:38 PM.
Julio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2021, 05:01 PM   #3385
Street Pharmacist
Franchise Player
 
Street Pharmacist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Kamloops
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
That is a good article. One issue though, I think they're sort of misinterpreting that chart from the UK. The risk/benefit chart they show is based on 20 cases per 10K per day, and they conflate Ontario's current situation (20 cases per 10K per week) to that, when Ontario is actually more like 3 cases per 10K per day. So that would be closer to the low exposure risk chart here:




And that's based on a 4 month exposure risk at that level. If the delay for getting different vaccine is more like a month, then the ICU admission gets cut by 3/4, at which point the potential harms outweigh the benefits for people under 40.

That said, those risks and benefits aren't the same for everyone even within an age cohort. So for a 35 year old male who works in a job with a high chance of exposure and/or might be more predisposed to serious outcomes from COVID, getting AZ likely outweighs any risks. On the other hand, a healthy 30 year old woman who works from home is almost surely better off waiting for a different vaccine based on those numbers. So to me, opening it up to younger people (probably 35+ or 40+) with a clear outline of the risks so they can make informed consent is the way to do it.

Not disagreeing with you here, as these hard the "hard costs" benefits vs risks, yes. But what that formula misses is the "soft costs" of anxiety about getting sick, waiting for vaccination to spend time with loved ones otherwise not possible, etc. As you said, informed consent is the best way forward
Street Pharmacist is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Street Pharmacist For This Useful Post:
Old 04-17-2021, 05:07 PM   #3386
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

Another great day for Alberta vaccinations with 39.5k. This leaves us with an 8.27 day supply of vaccines. If vaccinations continue at today’s rate and no new second doses we have 50 days left until 80% of adults are vaccinated.

Also positive is Ryan Imgrunds Rt values for Alberta have steadily come down from 1.28 to 1.08 and Calgary is down to 1.02 The south is well below 1. Central Alberta is the west area now in terms of growth at 1.28. If we can get Rt below 1 for a couple of weeks we will be real close to letting increased vaccination take care of the rest.

Last edited by GGG; 04-17-2021 at 05:10 PM.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to GGG For This Useful Post:
Old 04-17-2021, 05:10 PM   #3387
looooob
Franchise Player
 
looooob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG View Post
Another great day for Alberta vaccinations with 39.5k. This leaves us with an 8.27 day supply of vaccines. If vaccinations continue at todayís rate and no new second doses we have 50 days left until 80% of adults are vaccinated.

Also positive is Ryan Imgrunds Rt values for Alberta have steadily come down from 1.2 to 1.08 and Calgary is down to 1.02. The south is well below 1. Central Alberta is the west area now in terms of growth at 1.28. If we can get Rt below 1 for a couple of weeks we will be real close to letting increased vaccination take care of the rest.
Nationwide crossed 23% today and the rolling 7 day of 280 k means just under 2 million Canadians vaccinated in the last 7 days
looooob is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to looooob For This Useful Post:
Old 04-17-2021, 05:45 PM   #3388
getbak
Franchise Player
 
getbak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
Exp:
Default

With all the talk around unused AZ doses, does anyone know how many unused doses of AZ there currently are, and what percentage of eligible 55+ people are still unvaccinated?

Did anyone happen to go to the Southport walk-in site today? Any word on how busy it was?

I hope that part of the reason for the lower numbers during the week is that people were waiting for the weekend to have time to go (although, I would have taken sick leave to get it, but not everyone has that luxury).
__________________
Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
getbak is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2021, 06:01 PM   #3389
looooob
Franchise Player
 
looooob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak View Post
With all the talk around unused AZ doses, does anyone know how many unused doses of AZ there currently are, and what percentage of eligible 55+ people are still unvaccinated?

Did anyone happen to go to the Southport walk-in site today? Any word on how busy it was?

I hope that part of the reason for the lower numbers during the week is that people were waiting for the weekend to have time to go (although, I would have taken sick leave to get it, but not everyone has that luxury).
last I heard about 100k AZ had been given in Alberta


the question on the number eligible who has taken it is an interesting one, but probably hard to answer as there will be

1. those who qualified under 2b (which is probably a large number)
2. those that qualified under 2c or earlier phases due to occupation
3. those who have lucked into a waitlist or spoilage mRNA vaccine
4. those that want the vaccine but don't want AZ
5. those that don't intend (currently) to be vaccinated
looooob is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to looooob For This Useful Post:
Old 04-17-2021, 06:28 PM   #3390
getbak
Franchise Player
 
getbak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by looooob View Post
last I heard about 100k AZ had been given in Alberta
Thanks. Do you know how many have been delivered?
__________________
Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
getbak is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2021, 06:34 PM   #3391
Fuzz
Franchise Player
 
Fuzz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak View Post
Thanks. Do you know how many have been delivered?
According to this, it's ~270k


https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...llout.html#a4a
__________________
Air Canada - We're not happy until you're not happy.
Telus - Almost as bad as Winnipeg.
Calgary Roads Dept - Ya, we'll get to that.
Fuzz is online now   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Fuzz For This Useful Post:
Old 04-17-2021, 06:35 PM   #3392
GGG
Franchise Player
 
GGG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak View Post
Thanks. Do you know how many have been delivered?
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...e-rollout.html

The federal government website is the best place for up to date delivery info.

We have 270k AZ from the various sources in Alberta. A combination of Serum institute, US, and Covax.
GGG is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to GGG For This Useful Post:
Old 04-17-2021, 06:46 PM   #3393
Fuzz
Franchise Player
 
Fuzz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG View Post
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...e-rollout.html

The federal government website is the best place for up to date delivery info.

We have 270k AZ from the various sources in Alberta. A combination of Serum institute, US, and Covax.
You got Fuzzlossed.
__________________
Air Canada - We're not happy until you're not happy.
Telus - Almost as bad as Winnipeg.
Calgary Roads Dept - Ya, we'll get to that.
Fuzz is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2021, 07:18 PM   #3394
getbak
Franchise Player
 
getbak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
Exp:
Default

From the stats I could find, there are about 550,000 people in Alberta in the 55-64 age range. Some percentage of those will also qualify for 2B or 2C, but there should still be enough people available to get the AZ. They just need to go get them.

My guess is that if the walk-ins weren't busy enough this weekend, we'll see the age range expanded next week, whether the NACI says so or not.


Expanding to 50+ would add another 270,000 and going to 45+ would add an additional 290,000 on top of that. 40+ would be another 320,000.

I hope that would give them enough willing arms to use up the supply.
__________________
Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
getbak is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2021, 07:48 PM   #3395
looooob
Franchise Player
 
looooob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak View Post
From the stats I could find, there are about 550,000 people in Alberta in the 55-64 age range. Some percentage of those will also qualify for 2B or 2C, but there should still be enough people available to get the AZ. They just need to go get them.

My guess is that if the walk-ins weren't busy enough this weekend, we'll see the age range expanded next week, whether the NACI says so or not.


Expanding to 50+ would add another 270,000 and going to 45+ would add an additional 290,000 on top of that. 40+ would be another 320,000.

I hope that would give them enough willing arms to use up the supply.
ok just some wild estimates here



lets say 75% of eligible want to be vaccinated (any vaccine) that might leave 413 000 in that age group that want a vaccine


now I'll estimate that 25% qualify under 2b (I know that sounds high- or maybe it doesn't- but given the numbers the province was floating for 2B and given that this would be the oldest age group that would qualify and therefore might be 'most likely' to have other health conditions


leaves 309 000 (ok this math assumes that those with health conditions are equally likely or not to want to be vaccinated- possibly erroneous but I'm hand waving here anyways)


then lets say (most arbitrary guess yet) that 30 000 are healthcare workers or related phase 1/2c eligible or somehow stumbled into a shot.



279 000.- interestingly (and I did not plan it this way) this is almost exactly the number of AZ shots allotted to Alberta. however uptake even amongst this group is ~100/279 or 36%. so the remainder either don't know they are eligible, don't know how to get vaccinated or are waiting for a mRNA vaccine


dropping down to 45 plus in your scenario- if the math holds- might chew up the rest
looooob is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to looooob For This Useful Post:
Old 04-17-2021, 08:18 PM   #3396
Julio
First Line Centre
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Olympic Saddledome
Exp:
Default

Unless we get both an expanded demo, and thus better uptake, and the delayed Moderna (reduced) shipment come in the last week in April, I can see either a plateau, or even a bit of a drop, before we get 2 million Pfizer a week in May.
__________________
"The Oilers are like a buffet with one tray of off-brand mac-and-cheese and the rest of it is weird Jell-O."
Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
Julio is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2021, 08:33 PM   #3397
opendoor
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Exp:
Default

Yeah, based on Pfizer deliveries, current Moderna supply, and likely AZ administration, we're probably looking at 250-270K per day nationally for the next 2 weeks, so a plateau or a slight drop is probably accurate. Then in May we're looking at a supply of about 375K a day, plus any AZ doses that are still kicking around.
opendoor is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to opendoor For This Useful Post:
Old 04-17-2021, 08:59 PM   #3398
OutOfTheCube
Franchise Player
 
OutOfTheCube's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Exp:
Default

I mean I’m only 31 years old, I think I can take another few weeks of waiting for a Pfizer instead of getting an AZ and worrying about a blood clot...
__________________
OutOfTheCube is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2021, 09:03 PM   #3399
BMStrikesAgain
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Jan 2021
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube View Post
I mean Iím only 31 years old, I think I can take another few weeks of waiting for a Pfizer instead of getting an AZ and worrying about a blood clot...
okay cool, that's wicked dude, but lots of people 18+ who would jump at a-z right now if we could get it.
BMStrikesAgain is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-17-2021, 09:26 PM   #3400
Hemi-Cuda
wins 10 internets
 
Hemi-Cuda's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: slightly to the left
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube View Post
I mean Iím only 31 years old, I think I can take another few weeks of waiting for a Pfizer instead of getting an AZ and worrying about a blood clot...
It's not for myself that I'm worried about the vaccine for, it's the family. The sooner I can get any kind of vaccine the less I have to worry about transmitting the disease to anyone else
Hemi-Cuda is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Hemi-Cuda For This Useful Post:
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:02 PM.

Calgary Flames
2019-20




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2021