Flames fire Geoff Ward, hire Darryl Sutter, signs 3 year deal

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

@classic snipeer (can't quote).


Were they executing when they were dominating play? How has this team scored 5on5?


I have ZERO doubt that this team has had nights where most of them didn't show up to play. Absolutely the commitment wasn't there, and there was a lot of examples of them being lazy.


However, just like you said - they had periods (and even a few games, especially earlier in the season) when they dominated, but still lost. Their execution wasn't there. As the season unfolded, the execution got worse. Why? Just laziness? What about in the periods that they dominated (which happened even recently), but they not only failed to score, but would get scored on?


Just listen to the interview. Don't believe me. Listen to the interview, and at least draw your own conclusions on what Sutter wants to do, and what he meant, rather than guessing at it based on a few quotes here and there.


I bet you that in 15 games from now, this Flames team is going to be seen as a fairly fast team - above average at least.



The Oilers with Hall, Eberle, etc., looked like a slow team most of the time, with the occasional junior-level highlight reel move that worked sprinkled-in.


They look slow because they aren't used to playing fast. They aren't able to move the puck quickly enough. They hesitate a bit too long. They have trouble hitting one another with good passes when they are playing at speed. Parts of the system may be contributing to this (hence the 'adjustments').



We will just have to wait and see what happens instead of us both arguing until we are blue in the face. Listen to Sutter's interviews, listen to what the players are saying, and then come to your own conclusions after digesting it (and of course, taking into consideration what you have been seeing for yourself this season so far). There is a narrative there that will fit. You are 100% right that laziness was an issue at least sometimes, but perhaps you are seeing the effect of something else, rather than seeing the cause?



We will see for ourselves how slow this team really is. There are only a few players who are below average speed. I rank Monahan as average personally - but we will throw him into 'below average'. Monahan, Tkachuk, Lucic... anyone else? Are the three players really slowing everyone down? I don't think so.


Gaudreau, Backlund, Dube, Mangiapane, Bennett are all fast. Ryan is probably above average - or average at worst. Ritchie so far looks pretty good to me, as did Robinson. Nordstrom is very fast. Simon has good wheels. Did I miss anyone? Everyone on the back-end looks pretty good speed-wise to me.


So is this a physically slow team? Are 3 (2 in my opinion) players completely slowing down everyone else? Or is this 'slowness' a symptom of something else?

I’m confused by your first point, are you insinuating that opposition teams are allowing the Flames to outshoot them 20 to 7?

This team’s biggest problem in my opinion is not their system, it’s a very common system in this league. This team’s biggest problem this season is their inconsistent effort and lack of attention to detail period to period. If Ward screwed up anywhere, it was probably his insistence to play the 3 headed center of 28-23-11 at the expense of team chemistry. But I’m not even sure if that was on him or the GM who chose to sign Leivo, Simon and Nordstrom who have combined for 1 goal half way into the season.

Lastly, the whole “this team plays slow” stuff I’ve already talked about ad nauseam. I’m done with that talk as well, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens as I’m pretty skeptical. But the players you listed I don’t consider all that fast. For instance, Johnny is fast in terms of his first step, maybe one of the best in the league, but his top skating speed isn’t anything special. He can change direction and pivot quick though. Dube has pretty high top speed, his first step is ok, acceleration ok, but he doesn’t pivot or turn fast and doesn’t change direction all that fast either. I will admit though that I have impossibly high standards for what I deem as fast though. But this organization itself could honestly use some higher standards.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Your first point I agree with 100%. All sorts of systems can win, which also leads me to wonder why so many people in CP question systems so damn much.

Because

- Geoff Ward's collapse defense in particular was extremely passive, and analytics have shown over the last decade+ that passive systems produce lower shot attempt differentials than more aggressive systems, and that shot attempt differential, in particular shot attempts for are one of the greatest indicators of future success. While teams "have won" with collapse defenses (2011 Bruins, 2017 Penguins), they are fundamentally outliers compared to teams that have won with systems that eschew collapsing in favour of pressure (2010 Blackhawks, 2012 Kings, 2013 Blackhawks, 2014 Kings, 2015 Blackhawks, 2016 Penguins, 2019 Blues, 2020 Lightning)

- a hockey system is a structural framework within which players are expected to succeed, but the Flames have shown a tendency towards rigid adherence to executing "by the book" to their own detriment. Case-in-point, the whole "break out along the walls all the time, every time" strategy that has the defensemen abandoning some of their fundamental skillsets of wheeling the puck in the defensive zone in lieu of passes to stationary wingers.

- if the systems do not fit the personnel, you are not getting the most out of that personnel.

- hockey is a game heavily driven by luck - which can offset the (in)effectiveness of a given system. But relying on luck is a poor strategy. Just because you can win doing something ineffective, does not mean you should

- all systems will get countered within series of games against the same opponents, and coaches need to be able to adapt variations within their systems such that those systems are not exploited. This is not something Ward showed the capability of doing, whether that was in the playoffs or otherwise.

Again, to reiterate what Sutter said - there simply isn't time for him to implement sweeping systemic changes. He will make do with what he has. He'll probably make some subtle adjustments but does not have a training camp or 60+ games to implement a system tailor-made for the players he has.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The two bolded points contradict each other.

They aren't slow, they play slow. But I am confident that Sutter will fix that.

First of all, being slow is a relative term. To me, this is a slow team. They have a couple of the slowest players in the league on their team ala Lucic and Tkachuk. They compensate by playing heavy so it works. Tkachuk can also the slow the pace of a game down though similar to Johnny (opposite ways of course). But overall, no, I don’t consider this a fast team.

Also, I disagree that this team “plays slow,” at least by design. They want to play fast, they want to play with pace as constantly echoed by Bill Peters in the past. When this team plays “connected” they can be fast, they can transition from zone to zone quickly because the puck moves faster then humans. But it’s what the opposition does to the Flames that makes them appear slow. Nobody wants to play slow. What self respecting NHL hockey player would want to purposely be slow? Your shift is 1 minute long. There’s no time to be slow. But unfortunately, the other team wants to win too and sometimes you have to slow things down because of how the other team plays you.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Because

- Geoff Ward's collapse defense in particular was extremely passive, and analytics have shown over the last decade+ that passive systems produce lower shot attempt differentials than more aggressive systems, and that shot attempt differential, in particular shot attempts for are one of the greatest indicators of future success. While teams "have won" with collapse defenses (2011 Bruins, 2017 Penguins), they are fundamentally outliers compared to teams that have won with systems that eschew collapsing in favour of pressure (2010 Blackhawks, 2012 Kings, 2013 Blackhawks, 2014 Kings, 2015 Blackhawks, 2016 Penguins, 2019 Blues, 2020 Lightning)

- a hockey system is a structural framework within which players are expected to succeed, but the Flames have shown a tendency towards rigid adherence to executing "by the book" to their own detriment. Case-in-point, the whole "break out along the walls all the time, every time" strategy that has the defensemen abandoning some of their fundamental skillsets of wheeling the puck in the defensive zone in lieu of passes to stationary wingers.

- if the systems do not fit the personnel, you are not getting the most out of that personnel.

- hockey is a game heavily driven by luck - which can offset the (in)effectiveness of a given system. But relying on luck is a poor strategy. Just because you can win doing something ineffective, does not mean you should

- all systems will get countered within series of games against the same opponents, and coaches need to be able to adapt variations within their systems such that those systems are not exploited. This is not something Ward showed the capability of doing, whether that was in the playoffs or otherwise.

Again, to reiterate what Sutter said - there simply isn't time for him to implement sweeping systemic changes. He will make do with what he has. He'll probably make some subtle adjustments but does not have a training camp or 60+ games to implement a system tailor-made for the players he has.

I somewhat agree with the bolded. But the GM picks the players and he picks the GM and the coach and in essence, the system and style. How do you know for sure that the real problem is the coach and the “system” and not the players?

As for your first point, yes, Geoff Ward deployed a very passive defensive zone coverage. It’s a very common strategy that many other teams in this leaguw deploy. You give up the low percentage point shot to protect the high percentage slot chances. That, I’m ok with.

Honestly, their defensive zone structure hasn’t even been their biggest problem this season. When they’re in their dzone structure they’ve been fine for the most part, this team’s biggest problem(s) this season has been their transition game. They’ve turned the puck over far too much or have left themselves vulnerable in the neutral zone too often on the forecheck.

[jg13]

I really enjoyed this segment with Bieksa talking about what Darryl will likely bring to the team and playing against Sutters teams in the past.

Nice to see some perspective from outside the organization.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/960/big-sho...ew-bench-boss/

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Think I saw a quote from Darryl that said the system was fine, but the style wasn’t...still not exactly sure what he means by that.

The style comment was paraphrasing from Tkachuk when asked what was said to the club.

In his zoom after the 1st practice Sutter said specifically:

"its not the system here, its the execution".

He truly believes he can get them playing quicker. He hasn't addressed team skating abilities per se, but a few times now stated/hinted that they need to play faster. I think all would agree with that.

It wont happen overnight but I expect those who get it and are willing to do so will be obvious to us watching in short order.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

“The system is correct, but the style we need to fix”

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/calgarys...12586dfc4/amp/

People will always run with any nugget they can that fits their confirmation bias but the evidence doesn't support Ward being a competent head coach. Darryl said that there's not enough time to change the system and really the system may not be bad if played at a faster pace but Ward wasn't practicing at that pace and it resulted in a slow team unable to execute the system. We can go back and forth forever but at the end of the day the results show that Ward wasn't getting it done as the team's record is indisputable evidence.

[timbit]

I hope creating current success with the Flames is not as complicated as some posters pretend it to be.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by timbit

I hope creating current success with the Flames is not as complicated as some posters pretend it to be.

I think it both is and isn't.

It should be easier than most claim. As Sutter pointed out, the team is capable of dominating periods against any other team in this division. We have seen it all season. We saw it last season. And we saw it two seasons ago. They have the ability.

Because of this though I think we have the right to be uncertain exactly how to fix it. It isn't a players talent issue, probably. It isn't a playing systems problem, allegedly (not sure I agree but willing to give Sutter any benefit of the doubt.) Those are things that should be immediately fixable. Instead it's some weird mixed problem of proper motivation and effort, consistent thought, and proper usage. Whether anyone can take these guys and get them into the right gear is an open question, hence the projected difficulty in getting them there. But if anyone can it is probably someone like Sutter.

[GioforPM]

Playing faster is all upstairs. The Flames don’t have a fast team - only Dube is what I consider fast in the NHL - but the main issue is not physical (though I’d sure like a fast winger over 200 pounds). It’s in making decisions instantly or close to it. The Flames take far to long to get a pass off (and then it’s often a miss). They telegraph. This includes guys like Gaudreau who have a great passing rep (IMO Johnny is a terrific at area passing and merely good at passing to a stick).

If you watch the teams who have a “fast” rep, I’d say their speed isn’t mostly from having a burner like McDavid or Mikhayev, it’s from turning the puck over, and getting going the other way quickly with fast passing. Look at Boston. Is Bergeron fast? He’s not slow but he doesn’t beat players to the outside a lot. Marchand has speed but who else? Look at Vegas. There’s no reason the Flames can’t do this, unless they are full of stupid players.

ETA: I don’t think this was a matter of the system not fitting the players. You can only go so far with that anyway, because any team is a pretty big mix. It’s a matter of buy-in and execution.

[Red]

Playing fast on this team is absolutely about physical abilities.

These guys practiced like it was a leisure charity skate so they got themselves out of shape. Since Peters left, the team got progressively slower which is a testament to Ward's attention to that aspect. The fastest skater at his practices was the guy rushing to change the music at the rink.

Sutter will change that. The players will get their legs going for once. He is all business.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Red

Playing fast on this team is absolutely about physical abilities.

These guys practiced like it was a leisure charity skate so they got themselves out of shape. Since Peters left, the team got progressively slower which is a testament to Ward's attention to that aspect. The fastest skater at his practices was the guy rushing to change the music at the rink.

Sutter will change that. The players will get their legs going for once. He is all business.

For sure, you can’t turn an elephant into a cheetah.

However, the speed of transition ( D to O and O to D ) and successful habits , working immediately to be available after gaining possession, and on pucks turned over, stopping and tracking immediately (instead of circling), certainly are heavily predicated on learned mental skills, preparation and attitude, as well.

Darryl will insist on that....and the team will look and play faster.

[Red]

Originally Posted by timbit

For sure, you can’t turn an elephant into a cheetah.

However, the speed of transition ( D to O and O to D ) and successful habits , working immediately to be available after gaining possession, and on pucks turned over, stopping and tracking immediately (instead of circling), certainly are heavily predicated on learned mental skills, preparation and attitude, as well.

Darryl will insist on that....and the team will look and play faster.

And this will boost their confidence too. If you do it well at practice it will translate to game time.
They are flubbing passes because they are not used to making them at game speed.

[Backstop]

Originally Posted by timbit

For sure, you can’t turn an elephant into a cheetah.

Says you..

"Hey Lucic! you see this treadmill in the sauna here, I need you to try it out for me, just for a couple weeks, something about being a cheetah"

[DeluxeMoustache]

It’s often mainly off screen, but a little change you already saw on the weekend in the nz was wingers circling back and running little routes. Pretty safe bet Sutter asked them why they were standing still in the nz and how they expected that to work

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I love the coach killer narrative.

Because really it's just shooting/save percentage differences. Prior to this season this was a team that got bottom third of the league goaltending consistently, but their shooting percentage was sporadic.

2014/2015: Corsi For: 46.8% (26th), Shooting Percentage: 10.5% (2nd), Save Percentage: .911 (16th)

2015/2016: 49.1% (20th), 9.55% (6th), .892 (30th) - Goaltending is what got Hartley Fired

2016/2017: 50.4% (12th), 9.3% (15th), .907 (21st)

2017/2018: 53.1% (2nd), 7.8% (29th), .905 (21st) - Shooting and save percentage cratered

2018/2019: 53.8% (4th), 10.9% (3rd), .903 (21st)

2019/2020 (Peters): 50.8% (11th), 7.58 (29th), .905 (16th) - Shooting percentage combined with racism got him fired

I left the stats under Ward out because honestly it's kind of the same story where the shooting percentage has dropped of this year. But to me this is the first coach I think they truly quit on.

Under Hartley they just didn't have a very good team top to bottom yet and got the worst goaltending in the league that year.

With Gulutzan they just didn't get any puck luck, but their underlying and advanced metrics were great.

In year one under Peters it all came together. Great advanced metrics combined with good shooting percentage but still below average goaltending, and they finished 2nd in the league.

Then under Peters to start the year the next year the shooting percentage cratered and he was fired for non-hockey related reasons.

So I don't fully believe this is a team of coach killers going back to their entire tenure here, outside of Maybe Ward who I do think they might have given up on.

A theory/question that might contribute to this:

Did we see more backup goalies in our 'good' years? A lot of teams try to plot out their goaltending way in advance...going into our surprisingly good years I bet we were often earmarked for a backup night...then the next year we'd be earmarked for a starter...extrapolating further could be the idea of opposing teams taking us lightly...

It would require a pretty deep dive to see if there's anything there. In the early years of this core, VAN would have still been considered the 'scarier' of the 3 teams, then it was a tossup between us and EDM (and now we all suck similarly).

My guess is that road teams might get there backup in for 2/3 on west CAD trip...when we're on the road we'd be a good time for a backup, too.


Not sure about '14-15, but I know in our more recent years we racked up pts against the other divisions, but were worst against PAC rivals.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Did we see more backup goalies in our 'good' years?

Looking at game logs of wins, pre-ASB, in 2018-19, these are the goalies the Flames defeated.


Jacob Markstrom
Pekka Rinne
Semyon Varlamov
Tuukka Rask
Henrik Lundqvist (?)
Frederik Andersen
Carter Hutton (?)
Semyon Varlamov
Corey Crawford
Jack Campbell (1B backup)
Mikko Koskinen
Malcolm Subban (backup)
Connor Hellebuyck (pulled in game) / Broissoit (backup)
Antti Raanta
Calvin Pettersson (3rd string - but posted a .943 in that game)
Corey Crawford
Sergei Bobrovsky (pulled in game) / Joonas Korpisalo (backup)
Alex Stalock
Juuse Saaros
Anthony Stolarz
Devan Dubnyk
Jake Allen (pulled in game) / Jordan Binnington (backup at the time)
Connor Hellebuyck
Aaron Dell (backup)
Jimmie Howard
Carter Hart
Collin Dellia (3rd string?)
Semyon Varlamov
Roberto Luongo
Adin Hill (backup)
Jimmy Howard
Mikko Koskinen
Petr Mrazak


It seems to me we mostly saw most teams' de jure starters.

[GioforPM]

Goaltending didn’t get Hartley fired. Treliving is smart enough to see the stats, and he watched the tending all year.

Hartley got fired because: he wasn’t Treliving’s choice and was only extended because of the Jack Adams; the players hated him; and Corsi evened out from the previous year. And Hiller’s goaltending wasn’t as good (but Ramo hardly changed at all as cars as save% goes, and he still dropped games).

Here’s a question: How did Hartley get the 2nd worst winning percentage in Flames history with a team that had Iginla, Cammaleri, Tanguay, Stempniak, Hudler, Glencross, Wideman, Gio, Jaybo, Backlund, Brodie, and Kipper? Did he not motivate them?

[jayswin]

Kipper was a shell and that was an aging Cammaleri, Tanguay and Iginla. There was no core at that point, just old vets to trade away for the rebuild.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Kipper was a shell and that was an aging Cammaleri, Tanguay and Iginla. There was no core at that point, just old vets to trade away for the rebuild.

In his previous year under Mike Kennan Mikka Kiprusoff posted a 0.920 SP, and he won 35 games.