[News] James Neal on waivers

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by SilverKast

It sure seems to be a pretty common measuring stick. If we look at teams who historically draft well we all seem to wish we had their scouting and drafting. Yet on the flip side we don't give a pass to teams who have terrible draft records. Because then the rationale would be that just because they had terrible drafts in the past doesn't mean they will in the future right?

There are too many things in play here to apply this to one pick in one draft and predict future success. Scouting staff's change, GM's change. The player pool in each respective draft pool changes. Recent data does seem to suggest that the Flames have been finding players after round one when given some picks to work with.

Since 2017 the only player picked by the Flames who has played a NHL game is Valimaki. Mangiapane is the only guy since the 2013 draft picked after round 2 who has played any games as a Flame. Adam Fox would still count too here. So that's two guys in the last 8 drafts.

Naratives can always be changed to suit someone's personal view on a topic. Again it's nice to get an extra pick and the circumstances do sting the OIlers which is better.

Either way I dislike Neal, and when Lucic scores and does what looks like a Tuscan Raider celebration it brings a smile to my face. I'd rather the team never had to deal for him. But I'm happy for him when he does score. Seems like ever since he started doing that, he looks like he's having fun, and he's getting to do that celebration a bit more. I'd like to see more of it. As a person Lucic is a guy I like seeing do well.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

There are too many things in play here to apply this to one pick in one draft and predict future success. Scouting staff's change, GM's change. The player pool in each respective draft pool changes. Recent data does seem to suggest that the Flames have been finding players after round one when given some picks to work with.

Since 2017 the only player picked by the Flames who has played a NHL game is Valimaki. Mangiapane is the only guy since the 2013 draft picked after round 2 who has played any games as a Flame. Adam Fox would still count too here. So that's two guys in the last 8 drafts.

Naratives can always be changed to suit someone's personal view on a topic. Again it's nice to get an extra pick and the circumstances do sting the OIlers which is better.

Either way I dislike Neal, and when Lucic scores and does what looks like a Tuscan Raider celebration it brings a smile to my face. I'd rather the team never had to deal for him. But I'm happy for him when he does score. Seems like ever since he started doing that, he looks like he's having fun, and he's getting to do that celebration a bit more. I'd like to see more of it. As a person Lucic is a guy I like seeing do well.

Calgary has only had one 3rd from 2015-2019. And that one was Fox.

[Mayo]

Just checked out the Oilers forum and it's mass delusion - they still believe it was a landslide W for them in this trade

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Mayo

Just checked out the Oilers forum and it's mass delusion - they still believe it was a landslide W for them in this trade

A lot of that is because they think they can buy him out easily.
That is not exactly true.

A buyout next summer would leave a cap hit of $1,916,667 until 24-25 ( 4 more seasons).

While that on its own isn't too crazy, they will still be paying Sekera $1,500,000 and Lucic $750,000 until 22-23.

When they buy him out, for two years they will have a dead cap of $4,166,667

Even if you don't count Sekera, they are still paing 2.5M against the cap for two seasons for nothing.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

A lot of that is because they think they can buy him out easily.
That is not exactly true.

A buyout next summer would leave a cap hit of $1,916,667 until 24-25 ( 4 more seasons).

While that on its own isn't too crazy, they will still be paying Sekera $1,500,000 and Lucic $750,000 until 22-23.

When they buy him out, for two years they will have a dead cap of $4,166,667

Even if you don't count Sekera, they are still paing 2.5M against the cap for two seasons for nothing.

Exactly. Still a loss.

At 2.5 million of dead space, that leads $2.75 net payment for Lucic, which is starting to look like good value, as he leads the team in hits and is trending towards .5 ppg. Then the Oilers have an additional $1,916,667 for two more years and paid Calgary a 3rd round pick. A Neal buyout is also a loss for Edmonton.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

A lot of that is because they think they can buy him out easily.
That is not exactly true.

A buyout next summer would leave a cap hit of $1,916,667 until 24-25 ( 4 more seasons).

While that on its own isn't too crazy, they will still be paying Sekera $1,500,000 and Lucic $750,000 until 22-23.

When they buy him out, for two years they will have a dead cap of $4,166,667

Even if you don't count Sekera, they are still paing 2.5M against the cap for two seasons for nothing.

They are also still saying the taxi move is cap related, when I’ve been assured here that it doesn’t do a thing.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

There are too many things in play here to apply this to one pick in one draft and predict future success. Scouting staff's change, GM's change. The player pool in each respective draft pool changes. Recent data does seem to suggest that the Flames have been finding players after round one when given some picks to work with.

Since 2017 the only player picked by the Flames who has played a NHL game is Valimaki. Mangiapane is the only guy since the 2013 draft picked after round 2 who has played any games as a Flame. Adam Fox would still count too here. So that's two guys in the last 8 drafts.

Naratives can always be changed to suit someone's personal view on a topic. Again it's nice to get an extra pick and the circumstances do sting the OIlers which is better.

Either way I dislike Neal, and when Lucic scores and does what looks like a Tuscan Raider celebration it brings a smile to my face. I'd rather the team never had to deal for him. But I'm happy for him when he does score. Seems like ever since he started doing that, he looks like he's having fun, and he's getting to do that celebration a bit more. I'd like to see more of it. As a person Lucic is a guy I like seeing do well.

The Flames didn't pick until the fourth round in 2018. Pelletier and Zary both look like very solid late first round picks.

You can fault the GM/owners for trying to win to early. I'm not sure how you can possibly fault the scouting staff. Since 2015, the Flames drafting has been dynamite. They made the solid picks in the first and pulled some pure gems out of the 2nd round. Andersson, Dube, and Fox in the 2nd round is top notch. Pulling two potential top pairing d-men in that short of a time span is actually pretty incredible. Too bad things didn't work out with Fox, but that's more a function of the BS college rules. I can't imagine any other professional sport just letting a draft pick walk because they played in college.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

They are also still saying the taxi move is cap related, when I’ve been assured here that it doesn’t do a thing.

One need only go to capfriendly and see that, despite Neal being on the taxi squad for several days now, the Oilers still have zero accumulated cap space and zero deadline cap space. It helps them not at all.

But if they don't want to listen to you, they don't want to listen to you.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

They are also still saying the taxi move is cap related, when I’ve been assured here that it doesn’t do a thing.

Probably just saying that to save face.

They waived Neal because he sucks, not for TS purposes. As Enoch said, they don’t save a damn dime from this transaction.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

One need only go to capfriendly and see that, despite Neal being on the taxi squad for several days now, the Oilers still have zero accumulated cap space and zero deadline cap space. It helps them not at all.

But if they don't want to listen to you, they don't want to listen to you.

Oh, I didn’t say nuttin- they don’t appreciate our helpful input.

[Vinny01]

It is great to read Oiler fans on the other board be so bitter about this trade. They were the first to post the Holland face on Vince McMahon strut gif as soon as the deal went down and then posted multiple threads on HF when Neal got off to his ridiculous start.

Since then we have slowly but surely watched this trade favor the Flames. For Calgary they were able to save 500k on Neal’s cap hit by acquiring Lucic and while he is not worth his salary Lucic has provided value to the team in his role. He is a respected veteran leader, he still hits guys with regularity, and has started to produce a decent amount of offense.

Oiler fans will point to expansion which I am sure won’t be an option. They then default to the buyout which for them almost makes no sense. If they buy Neal out they have a 2.65M cap penalty when we combine the buyout+retention for 2 more years then have a 1.9M penalty for 2 more years. They would have been better off to trade Lucic somewhere are retain 50% of the cap hit rather than buy Neal out with 2 years left.

The fact we got the salty 3rd (thanks to prorating stats) makes it all sweeter for Flames fans

[Coach]

Anyone who watched James Neal in a Flames jersey with any sort of scrutiny knew this trade was AT WORST a wash from day one.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by blankall

The Flames didn't pick until the fourth round in 2018. Pelletier and Zary both look like very solid late first round picks.

You can fault the GM/owners for trying to win to early. I'm not sure how you can possibly fault the scouting staff. Since 2015, the Flames drafting has been dynamite. They made the solid picks in the first and pulled some pure gems out of the 2nd round. Andersson, Dube, and Fox in the 2nd round is top notch. Pulling two potential top pairing d-men in that short of a time span is actually pretty incredible. Too bad things didn't work out with Fox, but that's more a function of the BS college rules. I can't imagine any other professional sport just letting a draft pick walk because they played in college.

The Flames have done well picking in the second round....this isn't a second round pick.

If they package this with their own pick to get into the second round and draft another Dube or Anderson that's awesome. But it's also a big if.

Maybe this pick will be the savior...I'm not ruling it out. But the way people crow about this pick...sounds like they are banking on it. I'll need more time to crown this pick a champion that's all.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The Flames have done well picking in the second round....this isn't a second round pick.

They have also done well picking in the third round. Their one and only third round pick between 2015–2018 is a top-four defenseman.

If they package this with their own pick to get into the second round and draft another Dube or Anderson that's awesome. But it's also a big if.

Maybe this pick will be the savior...I'm not ruling it out. But the way people crow about this pick...sounds like they are banking on it. I'll need more time to crown this pick a champion that's all.

I don't see anyone "banking on" this pick being the saviour. But I do see a bunch of posters with high expectations that a third round pick in the hands of this scouting staff can turn out a solid NHL player. In fact, the most prevalent thought by my read of the responses is that this pick "has value," and whether that is in the form of a player or an asset used in a trade there is just no way to see this as anything but a big win that pushes the whole trade very heavily into Calgary's favour. People are crowing about it because of how absurdly one-sided this deal is becoming with every passing day.

[SilverKast]

Those clowns up north will try to put a spin on everything:

https://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-...s-lucic-trade/

I guess if you keep telling yourself over and over eventually you can convince yourself of just about anything. That's got to be some strong kool aid up there.

TLDR: we waived him so that we have "flexibility" with our taxi squad. I can't even comprehend how these guys justify everything. Just admit the trade isn't working out so well in your favor instead of looking for some lame excuse.

[Enoch Root]

"We won the trade because we can waive him!"

Um, we don't want to waive Lucic because he actually contributes, but I suppose in Oiler nation, waiving a player who doesn't contribute is more desirable than not being able to waive a player who does.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by SilverKast

Those clowns up north will try to put a spin on everything:

https://thehockeywriters.com/oilers-...s-lucic-trade/

I guess if you keep telling yourself over and over eventually you can convince yourself of just about anything. That's got to be some strong kool aid up there.

TLDR: we waived him so that we have "flexibility" with our taxi squad. I can't even comprehend how these guys justify everything. Just admit the trade isn't working out so well in your favor instead of looking for some lame excuse.

That is insanely desperate spin. The entire article is structured at every turn like a propaganda piece.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

The Flames have done well picking in the second round....this isn't a second round pick.

If they package this with their own pick to get into the second round and draft another Dube or Anderson that's awesome. But it's also a big if.

Maybe this pick will be the savior...I'm not ruling it out. But the way people crow about this pick...sounds like they are banking on it. I'll need more time to crown this pick a champion that's all.

It's still a bit unfair to limit the analysis to recent drafts when looking at the outcomes of 3rd round+ picks. Those pics are typically not NHL ready, hence why they get taken in later rounds.

I do agree, it's far from a sure thing. The odds of a 3rd round pic becoming an NHLer are probably around 1/6. The idea is that you get enough of them and play the odds, and when they pay off it's a huge win.

The thing with this Lucic/Neal trade is that it was such a garbage for garbage trade, that anything positive coming out of it has relatively large value. Meanwhile, Oilers fans have been going on about the trade like they won the lottery.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

That is insanely desperate spin. The entire article is structured at every turn like a propaganda piece.

What do you mean?

He clearly gives ample evidence for his concluding analysis.

However, it is clear to most that Neal is still the superior of the two, and the fact the Oilers have the option to place him on waivers as they did on Saturday does, even more, proves they won this trade.

It’s clear, because he used the word clear. No mention of any objective evidence that supports Neal being a superior player.

The fact that people will not only think, but publish this lunacy, only supports the falsity of the entire market.

Winnipeg doesn’t have to pay players a “Winnipeg tax” because the organization will actually protect players from the fan base & media making it an unfavourable place to play.

They also do NOT excoriate and embarrass players on a whim like the Oilers did with oh... off the top of my head...

Lucic, Talbot, Neal, Rieder, Eberle, O’Sullivan, Souray, Smyth, Pronger, Comrie etc. etc.

Ryan Smyth lives in Nashville now. Even he had enough of these dorks.

[TheIronMaiden]

Yeah. For the Flames its more of a neutral outcome. They will be free of Lucics cap in two fewer years, but the last two years on Lucic's contract could be a total waste of cap.

The Oilers gambled on who would decline more quickly and lost a 3rd and 500,000k in cap space. The Flames lost nothing, but gained a third and an upgrade (debatably) on Neal for a season or two.

the Flames could not feasibly buyout Lucic until summer 2022. If Lucic can be this effective for one more season, then the Flames are much larger winners in terms of getting cap value. That said, this it a pretty huge if.

The 3rd rounder could be a player, but its very likely that pick will be on the move again, making this debate even more convoluted.

In short the story on this trade is not done, but its trending to be a small recuperation on an awful UFA contract.