The glass is 3/4 full

[Lanny_McDonald]

The past few weeks has given me time to ponder the situation of the team and take a larger look at things. Yes, we're all pissed off at the lack of performance to start the season, but what does this team really look like?

Forwards

Unlike some on this site, I see a very good mix of forwards. I see three fantastic pairs that should generate offense. Monahan-Gaudreau is proven and a keeper. Lindholm-Tkachuk looks really good as well. Backlund-Mangiapane has shown chemistry as well. The 4th line is completely misused by this team and has been for years, so I'm not counting them. More on that later. The top nine is actually setup quite well for success, the challenge is finding that complimentary player for each line.

Of the rest of the forwards I think the team has a couple good pieces. Dillon Dube is a keeper and gives some flexibility. He can play up and down the lineup and help out everywhere. I have opinions where I think he should play, but that will wait. Josh Leivo is a guy that I think fills a need quite well. I have liked his game since he arrived and I see some great things from him. Another guy that I have seen some really good things from in spots is Simon. I don't think he's being used right, but he looks like he can easily contribute.

Where the team fails is the number of players that just look useless. Nordstrom is barely passable, but at $700K, that's what you expect. He’s a decent penalty killer but lacks offensive skill.
Ryan is a utility player, but a guy that looks like time is catching up. His $3.125M salary is a mistake IMO. If they could cull this salary from the herd it might be beneficial.

Lucic is tough player to discuss. Yes, the toughness is important to have in the lineup, but to what extent. The guy really struggles to play at the NHL level anymore. It is as plain as the nose on his face. Yes, he will have a game here or there that makes you feel good, but for the most part he is a liability out there. Yes, he is better than James Neal, but that bar is so low that it should not be used as a measure. Treliving should be on short leash just on this move alone IMO as Lucic's horrible $5.25M contract is an anvil around the neck of this team in the deep end of the pool.

My views on Sam Bennett are well known, and I'll leave it at the team needs to move on from him and his $2.55M salary. He tends to neutralize anyone you play him with for long stretches. It was not an accident that Backlund’s line came to life and Monahan’s line disappeared for two full periods as a certain player was reassigned. Move on and look for someone that can contribute, preferably a right handed shot.

Asset management has been poor by Treliving, especially his budget and willingness to blow it on both end talent. When you put out the 4th line of Lucic-Ryan-Bennett you have an $11M 4th line. Treliving should be ashamed. It is really too bad that the money wasted on these players was not available to grab another forward this past off season. I argued long and hard for the addition of Tyler Toffoli, both at the deadline and during free agency, and at $4.25M he would have been an exceptional fit for this team. Managing the budget matters and having $11M of dead weight is a huge problem.

Defense

The defense is surprisingly good. I’ll be the first to admit that I thought the Tanev signing was a huge mistake and the money should have been used up front. In retrospect this was a shrewd signing. Tanev has been the Flames’ best defenseman this season and he and Hanifin have been outstanding.

Another signing that worked out great for Calgary is Nesterov. Really impressed by him and his utility. He and Valimaki make a decent pair, although the former has had his challenges. I think Valimaki could use the odd game off and allow Mackey or Kyllington a chance at some ice time here and there. Might give him some perspective and aid his maturation at this level.

Andersson has been everything we hoped he would be. Just strong in both ends, plays really smart and is a pain in the ass to the opposition. Thanks Sven Baertschi.

Giordano has really struggled since COVID interrupted the NHL. He’s a step or two behind and has made some poor decisions. He still displays the heart of a lion and is a great leader, but his ice time commitment should be trimmed back. Still a quality player, but maybe should be on the 2nd or 3rd pair and sheltered from the opposition’s best.

Still, when it is all said and done the blueline is the least of the Flames problems.

Goaltending

Nothing needs to be said here. Jacob Markstrom has been the team’s MVP by a mile. It is wonderful having a goaltender back there you have confidence in and don’t cover your eyes the second the puck enters the Flames’ zone. It will be great having him back there providing the tending this team needs.

Big Save Dave needs to get his head right. I believe he can provide the relief pitcher role on this team and make the Flames tandem one of the best in the NHL, but he has to be prepared to go in when called upon. I’m not sure if he needs some couch time with a sports shrink, but he needs something to kick him out of his funk. Maybe a few more hugs from Tkachuk will help his fragile confidence? Once he gets right the Flames are in a very good position in goal.

Coaches

The Achilles Heel of the Treliving era. I have no idea how a guy that can do so many thing right can’t pick a damn head coach. Geoff Ward is a minor league coach IMO. He does not play to the strengths of his players and does not give them a chance to succeed. This is a team that should play a high tempo transition game, where they are always push the puck forward. In his scheme of things their first move is always to push the puck backwards against the flow and try to regroup so they can attack as a five-man unit. All this does is allow the opposition to get back and setup defensively, eliminating the Flames advantage of having guys that attack best on the rush. They suck at dump and chase, and when you allow the defense to setup across the blueline you are stuck playing that game.

What is even more concerning is the line assignments Ward makes. The Flames will score to get some momentum and he’ll go and throw out his 4th line and let them get hemmed in their own zone, killing what momentum was there. His matchups are terrible and he rarely uses that last change to get guys out to take advantage of situations. It is really beyond me how he is not better at this considering some of the teams he’s worked for.
Ward’s line combinations really leave a lot to be desired. He just can’t look down his bench and figure out what to do with his complimentary players. The blender is not the solution and is more a sign of panic than a reasoned approach.

What is worst about Ward and his team is they never seem prepared for games. Poor starts is usually a sign of not being prepared or the team not motivated. This can happen from time-to-time, but the level of regularity where this happens is alarming. Yes, players have to self-motivate, but the coaching staff needs to help those players prepare by giving them as much information and positive imagery as possible. I think the staff fails in this regard in a massive way.
If there was one change I could make on this team it would be getting an experienced and proven coach. Yes, I would keep Sam Bennett on the first line if it meant bringing in a coach who has some history of winning under his belt. No more second-rate coaches, bring in a winner.

Management

Brad Trelving is very frustrating to think about. He has done some really good things in making a trade here and there, he’s got some great deals signed, and he’s let the scouts do their job, but he’s also made some real horrible moves. A lot of his free agent signings have been terrible. Markstrom and Tanev certain changed that conversation as this was Treliving’s soft under belly. When you consider the list of free agents under Treliving, it’s been ugly. It’s also handcuffed the team in many ways. I think Treliving is good GM, but not a great one. I think he is in search of perfection in some of his moves more so than moving the team forward in meaningful ways. That may be his greatest weakness.

I think Treliving is down to his last lifeline. He needs this team to get over the hump or he’s likely to be asked to fall on his sword. The funny thing is I think this team is one top six forward away from being there. One more guy to step up and fill that missing slot, and this team starts running over their division. I hope he can make the right move and find a guy that can fill that role. It does not have to be a perfect fit, just someone that can compliment the skill sets already there. If he doesn’t get that done, all the goodwill he’s earned will be out the door and so will be Treliving.

Minors

The AHL Flames are not pretty. For a team needing depth, there just isn’t any. The blueline depth is pretty well non-existent. The goaltending position is also a mess with Zagidulin being the last resort. The forwards are AHL fodder or bottom six players. The best are Gawdin and Phillips and I’m not sure there is a full time NHL player in either of them. Ruzicka is a tantalizing mix of size and skill, but I think his consistency challenges hurt him. They do have a couple of big bodies that might turn into role players. Tuuola and Pospisil might be able to handle limited 4th line duty in the future, but they need to be tested in the crucible to prove their metal. COVID has really hurt these guys and probably killed a few careers.

Prospect base

The Flames are thin in this area. The loss of all the draft picks that Treliving used to make deals for immediate help has hurt the prospect base. The Flames are lacking a true blue chip prospect that can be counted to step in and make an immediate difference. The prospect ranks feature some skill but players that are undersized by NHL standards. We have Pelletier and Zary to look forward to, then a lot of long shots. Yes, we have some guys that have really stepped up, like Pettersen, Zavgorodiny, and Wolf that give up some hope, but these guys were late picks (6th round and two 7th rounders) for reasons. The hope for internal help seems like a complete crapshoot, as the holes we have we don’t have prospects that can step up into those roles. The best hope is these guys push vets out of roles and the GM can turn those vets into other players that fill the gaps.

Bottom Line

I like the current state of the team with the exception of the coaching staff and a couple bodies. I seriously think we are one player away from being in the mix to walk over the division. I think we are two decent players away from challenging the best in the league. The glass really is ¾ full. All we need is a decent trade for a couple of guys that can play in the middle six, preferably right shots, and I think the world is our oyster (man Toffoli would have been an awesome fit). We are solid from the goaltender out. We are solid down the middle. No, we don’t have flashy guys like McDavid, but we have solid players that get the job done. We just need to solidify the pairs with the appropriate complimentary players and give them a bench boss that can use them properly, and this is a dangerous team. I believe in this team which is why I am so passionate about removing the pieces that are square pegs in the round holes. It is unfortunate that this should all come to pass during COVID as it would have been interesting to see the deals made with a tight cap. I think this is a go for it now moment as the lack of depth is the system will make for a painful rebuild when its all said and done.

[Geeoff]

Flames haven't played their best hockey yet but are in 4th place in the division for points % and the teams below us look terrible.

[Robbob]

The way the north division is set up, I don't think it is surprising that the top 4 teams will be the ones with the better goalies. Thankfully we have Markstrom (thanks Van) so it is giving the team more runway to get things sorted. Essentially we have some into the season with change all across the roster (every forward line and all three pairings). Thankfully Tanev and Hanifin have shown instant chemistry (Thanks again Van), as the year goes on think they will be able to escalate their game. We all see glimpses of it, just need some consistency.

I just think the expectations are a couple notches higher then what we have seen.

[Boreal]

We’re barely coming out of training camp at this point at this point in a regular season. The Flames are only starting to score off of the rush.

The silver lining of this is that the defense is playing really well together with stable breakouts, minus obvious mistake and turn overs.

If they can maintain defensive reads, sync with Markstrom, score off the rush and keep the powerplay rolling... we’re in the mix for the division.

[simonarea]

i think we need a player like simmonds. He skates, finished checks, fights, scores, screens, hustles, trashtalks, and he is loved by the fans and teammates.

is there any player like Simmonds available?

Lucic stood out last night because he was able to protect the puck in the o-zone. Who else can do it? Ryan is too weak, Simon is too small, Mangie over-handles the puck (he is getting better though), Monny cant stick handle, Bennett will find a way to take stupid penalty, .... and so on

We need size and speed! get to work, tree!

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by New Era

Ryan is a utility player, but a guy that looks like time is catching up. His $3.125M salary is a mistake IMO. If they could cull this salary from the herd it might be beneficial.

Good post. The only part I sort of disagree with is the comment about Ryan. He's a UFA after this season and overall I think it was a solid signing by BT. Yes, he's a 4th liner but he's good in that role and is the best faceoff guy by quite a margin on the team. I have zero problem if they trade him and his contract away this season if it makes sense, but if he sticks around for the rest of this year I don't think it's a big deal, he'll be replaced next season. The wingers he plays with are the bigger question marks for this season, as you've already mentioned.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Good post. The only part I sort of disagree with is the comment about Ryan. He's a UFA after this season and overall I think it was a solid signing by BT. Yes, he's a 4th liner but he's good in that role and is the best faceoff guy by quite a margin on the team. I have zero problem if they trade him and his contract away this season if it makes sense, but if he sticks around for the rest of this year I don't think it's a big deal, he'll be replaced next season. The wingers he plays with are the bigger question marks for this season, as you've already mentioned.

Ryan sure was not a fourth liner when that contract was signed. Up until 2020 he was a highly effective third liner who could also play spot-duty in the too six. Even then he was on pace for a +30-point season.

I think Treliving has gotten solid value out of that signing.

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[the2bears]

Obvious effort went into your post, which is appreciated.

[TheSquatch]

The only issue I have with calling the forward group talented is that when you divide them up into pairs and say we have Monny-Johnny, we have Backlund-Mangiapane, and Tkachuk-Lindholm, I'm not sure which of those pairs is capable of winning playing top-line minutes. I do like the idea that spreading out the depth means the team can have a Johnny-Monny 2nd line, for example, and they'll do well. Not sure if that's a winning formula or not if the other team has a great top line. Is it Tkachuk-Linholm- Dube (for example) who must simply contain McDavid/Draisaitl?

I waver between "This team has wonderful depth at forward" and "This team is very broadly mediocre at forward."

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Ryan sure was not a fourth liner when that contract was signed. Up until 2020 he was a highly effective third liner who could also play spot-duty in the too six. Even then he was on pace for a +30-point season.

I think Treliving has gotten solid value out of that signing.

Agreed. I just meant he's a 4th liner now.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Agreed. I just meant he's a 4th liner now.

Ryan is lot a like of Treliving's other UFA signings in that the Contract was one year too long. Michael Frolik...Michael Stone, Troy Brouwer all would have been much easier to stomach if the terms had been for one fewer years. I still think Tanev too is going to be a guy who people rag on come the back end of year 3 on that contract, Markstrom too....but that's the price of getting UFA guys who are somewhat coveted.

The first two years he was good value, but this last year is looking like the price of getting that value.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I agree with about 90% of the OP in that this team looks like it's a really good player or two away from being a serious team. As it stands now, they're in that group of also-rans.

I don't believe this is their year, but there is a team to build on for next year.

Start in net and Markstrom seems to be the answer for at least the next 5 or 6 years. Perhaps Wolf will push for his job at some point, but that seems years away. I imagine Rittich or another solid backup goalie will be found to supplement our net for that period of time.

The defense corps seems to be set even with the decline of Giordano, which was expected at some point. Andersson, Hanifin, Valimaki are the young studs with Tanev likely being full value for the duration of his deal. Those guys are all locked up for 4 more years except for Valimaki who doesn't have enough bargaining power to get a significant raise on his current deal, but will likely be qualified and signed long term this year. There's your top 4 for the next 4-5 years. Cycle in whatever bottom pairing guys you need to, but you have Giordano for one more year who could easily still play bottom pairing minutes, and then Kylington and Mackey can probably fill out the bottom pair over their RFA eligibility.

Our defense is set. The question is, how good is it? I'm willing to believe that Hanifin is going to be a solid #2 d-man. Not flashy offensively, but has some skills and can supplement a quality offensive partner. I suspect that guy will be Andersson, but I'm not convinced of it yet. Then you have Valimaki-Tanev as a second pair who can play in all situations, with some offensive flair in Valimaki. Those are two rock-solid pairings who will eat minutes and play in all situations. Not spectacular, but will get the job done.

The real question is the forwards, and I guess it all depends on how you see this team constructed long-term. After next year, Johnny is UFA, the same year that Tkachuk is RFA. Who do you build around? The incredibly talented, but small and soft skilled player? Or do you build around the skilled but truculent Tkachuk, even though he has lots of baggage and doesn't put up the same points as Gaudreau. Neither player has been especially impressive in the playoffs, so the answer isn't clear to me. Can you keep both? Doubtful, but you never know. My gut says that Tkachuk is the guy to keep, and you could probably get a 1st round pick and a top prospect for Gaudreau at the very least.

I think you can keep Linholm and Monahan as your 1A/1B centers and build from there. You still have Backlund on the books for another 3 years after this one, and I'm sure he'll be a solid 3 center for the term of the deal. Zary seems like he will be an NHLer as well, but how good has yet to be determined, but I see him as a top 2 line winger. Ryan won't be renewed after this year, of that much I am certain.

Then you have the guys that project to be middle six wingers: Dube, Mangiapane, Pelletier. All good players, but not likely to be elite. I never worry about 4th liners because you can always fill that part of your lineup out easily with prospects, league minimum UFAs, and even PTOs if necessary. But you cannot win with Lucic on your 4th line making that kind of money, no matter how likable he is (and he is incredibly likable). I suspect the Flames buy out the last year of his deal if they can't get Seattle to take him once he waives his NMC. And the question of Bennett remains, and I don't know what to do with him. My gut says he's traded sometime this year or the off-season.

Anyway, in a year or so, the roster could look like this, and it might be like this for a while:

Tkachuk-Lindholm-Zary
Dube-Monahan-Pelletier
Mangiapane-Backlund-?
?-?-?

Hanifin-Andersson
Valimaki-Tanev
Giordano/Kylington-Mackey

Markstrom-Rittich/Backup UFA


When I look at that lineup, I see a good team, but I don't see a contender. However, if you can get a player of Gaudreau's level in return in a trade, you could see a much different team that could really contend. The problem is, I don't know how you really upgrade this roster without bottoming out for a season and getting another high end draft pick. c'est la vie.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

Flames haven't played their best hockey yet but are in 4th place in the division for points % and the teams below us look terrible.

And just about everybody else has pocketed free Ottawa points already.

We have not.

[lazypucker]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Ryan is lot a like of Treliving's other UFA signings in that the Contract was one year too long. Michael Frolik...Michael Stone, Troy Brouwer all would have been much easier to stomach if the terms had been for one fewer years. I still think Tanev too is going to be a guy who people rag on come the back end of year 3 on that contract, Markstrom too....but that's the price of getting UFA guys who are somewhat coveted.

The first two years he was good value, but this last year is looking like the price of getting that value.

Backlund falls into the same category as well. His contract is at least one year too long, possibly 2 years...

[Reggie Dunlop]

Mangiapane is really starting to come into his own as a scoring threat.

[Britflamesfan]

Good thoughtful post, only problem is this team and its main players all disappear in the playoffs. However much I like Johnny he has to be moved this year, he is not going to stay and we need to get a return for him. Tkachuk is a strange one, I hate to think what he is going to ask for as an RFA, I don't think he earns his current salary, not even close. He has also not proved himself in the playoffs. I guess the question is, how much are we prepared to pay him to keep him?

[Itse]

I think this year is the last chance for Treliving to win a round, and it should be.

If the Flames still can't win a round, Treliving will inevitably enter desperation mode and that's often ugly.

I'm also just not very excited over what our organizational depth looks like. Sure the team is still relatively young, but Treliving has wasted so many assets in low value moves that it's going to start biting us badly very soon.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TheSquatch

The only issue I have with calling the forward group talented is that when you divide them up into pairs and say we have Monny-Johnny, we have Backlund-Mangiapane, and Tkachuk-Lindholm, I'm not sure which of those pairs is capable of winning playing top-line minutes. I do like the idea that spreading out the depth means the team can have a Johnny-Monny 2nd line, for example, and they'll do well. Not sure if that's a winning formula or not if the other team has a great top line. Is it Tkachuk-Linholm- Dube (for example) who must simply contain McDavid/Draisaitl?

I waver between "This team has wonderful depth at forward" and "This team is very broadly mediocre at forward."

You seem to be suggesting that a team’s designated top line plays against the other teams top line etc.

That seldom happens.

A team’s top defensive centre plays against the McDavid’s of the world.

Calgary’s opponent’s top defensive line would generally play against whatever line Johnny is on.


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[Domoic]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

And just about everybody else has pocketed free Ottawa points already.

We have not.

And when the time comes, we better...

[ForeverFlameFan]

I think the wildcards here are whether or not Dube and Mangiapane remain to be legit scoring threats, which I firmly believe they can be. They are the perfect secondary scorers. I too agree that we are a piece or two away from contending. I would like for us to have the top 4 as Hanifin - Andersson and Valimaki - Tanev with a bottom 6 of Mackey/Kylington and a bottom pairing RD that is mean and gritty. I miss Engelland.

Shockingly, our C depth is not the issue this season with Lindholm upping his game. We need a legit top 6 RW, no matter the age. Preferably one with playoff experience and shows up when it matters.

The jury is out on Ward for me. Hoping we can just start getting a run together.