American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[CaptainCrunch]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1353807592070533121


Remember when Trump used the national security rules against Canada for aluminum then waived it. well in this case that national security waiver that trump re-enacted could vanish. The US will just simply not be allowed to buy foreign goods that are or could be made in the states.

[burn_this_city]

I thought the 75% rule was part of the new NAFTA.

Anyways, this buy American thing is why Canadians in general will cheer against their own interests when it comes to American politics. Democrats have historically have been much ####tier compared to Republicans when it comes to trade and protectionism. Trump obviously bucked that trend, but really we gave up almost nothing in the new NAFTA. Obama was pretty terrible for buy American nonsense and Biden is expanding it. Get used to being treated like an afterthought by your left leaning kindred spirits.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

If they start manufacturing a lot more components in the States it probably is.


He wants a million manufacturing jobs. Building domestically can make it happen.


Also and I missed part of it, the formula for the components which used to be built around the value of components (use a lot of cheap components to get to the 50%) is being changed.


The Liberals should be really concerned around the statements concerning Steel and other raw components. For example he specifically named steel in infrastructure must be american steel

But aren't car parts sourced from all over the globe? I mean, there are so many components made in different countries that saying a vehicle is 50% from one country almost impossible to do. If there isn't manufacturing capacity in the country to make the components then how can they meet that target. If that is the case will the US government be able to buy a new vehicle in the next decade?

[afc wimbledon]

Can we stop pretending that there has ever been a damn thing any Canadian Prime Minister has ever been able to do to affect US economic policy, 30 odd years of getting effed on softwood lumber aught to have taught us that at least.

I'm no fan of the Liberals but even I recognize we have no leverage on Keystone or steel or anything else, Democratic administrations tend to be worse for Canada economically, more protectionists than GOP, its a shame the GOP have gone bat#### crazy.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I thought the 75% rule was part of the new NAFTA.

Anyways, this buy American thing is why Canadians in general will cheer against their own interests when it comes to American politics. Democrats have historically have been much ####tier compared to Republicans when it comes to trade and protectionism. Trump obviously bucked that trend, but really we gave up almost nothing in the new NAFTA. Obama was pretty terrible for buy American nonsense and Biden is expanding it.

I thought that was the point of contention and had been negotiated to 50%. You have to be worried when Biden says that Trump didn't do enough for buy America, and basically says hold my beer.


I'm sure the Liberals are sick to their stomachs on this and the unions are going to be outraged especially in raw materials and automotive.



We basically are building EV factories in Ontario that have suddenly seen a massive shrinking of their North American market.


This is the consultation that Biden promised Trudeau, he came out with a very specific program that gets rid of waivers, enforces domestic manufacturing, and removes Canadian aluminum and steel from bids.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I thought the 75% rule was part of the new NAFTA.

Anyways, this buy American thing is why Canadians in general will cheer against their own interests when it comes to American politics. Democrats have historically have been much ####tier compared to Republicans when it comes to trade and protectionism. Trump obviously bucked that trend, but really we gave up almost nothing in the new NAFTA. Obama was pretty terrible for buy American nonsense and Biden is expanding it. Get used to being treated like an afterthought by your left leaning kindred spirits.

Canada's interest is to stop relying as much on the US as our only market for vast amounts of our product

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by New Era

But aren't car parts sourced from all over the globe? I mean, there are so many components made in different countries that saying a vehicle is 50% from one country almost impossible to do. If there isn't manufacturing capacity in the country to make the components then how can they meet that target. If that is the case will the US government be able to buy a new vehicle in the next decade?

Sure, Biden wants that to change. He's leaving it up to the US car manufacturers to expand their infrastructure and build their own components locally. This is a pretty broad strokes bill.



The concerning part is the removal of waivers and using a committee to issue them, that leaves things pretty open to pork barrelling.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by New Era

Not even remotely close to being accurate. Arizona is out of vaccine right now. Not even scheduling 1st responders because there is no vaccine available and no deliveries on the horizon. If there were shipments of vaccines headed this way scheduling would continue. But scheduling is disrupted, because why? No vaccine available. Same problem exists across the country. People are lining up for their scheduled appointments then left sitting in their cars because sites are out of vaccine.

Jesus Christ man, I laid out a dozen links from across the nation that shows how dire the situation is and just how bad it is. My municipality has the infrastructure to deliver, but no vaccine is available. None. We are being told that we may not see our 1st responders vaccinated for another six to eight weeks. That is already a month behind schedule, and it is all because vaccine is not available. If you're in phase three, you're now looking at fall before you can hope for a vaccine, because there isn't any available!

Really? The Trump administration had instructed states to use all vaccine available, with no guarantee of delivery of future doses. That is irresponsible and not a proper plan to solving the problem. Let me guess, if you're on chemo its okay to skip a treatment here or there or delay your treatment? This is beyond stupid now.

The "US" might be receiving doses, which according to the feds they are not, but those are not being made available to the states, who are administering the vaccination program. If the vaccine is being received by the feds, they aren't sharing that information. If they are shipping it out, is isn't making it to the states.

If everything you're saying is true, and places are all out of vaccine and there are no deliveries on the horizon, how are there 1M+ vaccinations per day throughout the country? And how are weekly vaccinations roughly matching the number of weekly delivered doses on the CDC site I linked? That would be impossible if the doses weren't ending up in the states' hands in regular intervals.

If what you're saying is true, vaccination numbers in the coming days will drop to almost nothing, are you really expecting that to happen? Or do you think they'll stay around 1M per day or even scale up? I'd bet on the latter.

Yeah, don't try and apply the interval from AstraZeneca to Pfizer or Moderna. The difference between the two is 42 days, which is twice the longest period for the clinical on the two vaccines in use in the US. People should be getting that booster in the three to four week span like directed, otherwise they put their vaccination at risk.

The Pfizer interval in the trial was 19-42 days; if they had no problem going up to 42 days and their trial showed no difference in efficacy with those intervals, then potentially (and only potentially) extending the interval to that length in the event of supply disruptions is a completely logical thing to do. Obviously you aim for the recommended dosing interval whereever possible. And with the US's robust and predictable supply, that shouldn't be an issue even if states don't hold all of their 2nd doses in storage.

A minor correction to your claim. The variant was identified on December 14th, a week after vaccinations began, and they estimate the mutation began sometime in September. The scientists trying to solve this problem identified the risk of delaying the booster and predicted possible mutation, like the one in the UK (not the mutation itself but a similar outcome). They made those predictions based on what they saw in trials, and the UK mutation is exactly what they predicted but unrelated. The variance in vaccine makes this issue that much harder to track and control.

You're correct, I misspoke. The earliest sample that had the B.1.1.7 variant was from September so the mutation occurred prior that point, though it wasn't identified as a variant of concern until December.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Canada's interest is to stop relying as much on the US as our only market for vast amounts of our product

Yup, on every product, cars is tough because Ford Canada is not going to compete with Ford in the states.



Component wise, we could get severely hamstrung, and its would be really difficult to break into the Asian markets. Raw materials like steel and aluminum and others, absolutely, we should, but I don't know the international players there. The best product for Canada still remains Oil and Gas, and we need to work to get those to an expanded international market.


The other area to me would be exporting things like reactor and reactor technology.

[CaptainCrunch]

I also think if America doesn't enact a carbon tax, we should carbon tax their products, as well as severely tax online shopping from American Companies to encourage a Canadian on line market. Canada needs to start finding a counter buy Canadian policy.



Will be interested in seeing the government reaction to today's announcement.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by opendoor

If everything you're saying is true, and places are all out of vaccine and there are no deliveries on the horizon, how are there 1M+ vaccinations per day throughout the country? And how are weekly vaccinations roughly matching the number of weekly delivered doses on the CDC site I linked? That would be impossible if the doses weren't ending up in the states' hands in regular intervals.

I think the numbers aren't accurate. Just like the numbers weren't accurate for diagnosis of COVID related infections I think the numbers may not be 100% accurate. I would wait and see if they change with the Biden admin in place and the whether the CDC is given free reign to report information. Let's not forget they were muzzled by the Trump admin because they were making him look bad. I can only tell you what is being observed on the ground.

If what you're saying is true, vaccination numbers in the coming days will drop to almost nothing, are you really expecting that to happen? Or do you think they'll stay around 1M per day or even scale up? I'd bet on the latter.

See above. The numbers don't jive. Maybe the states that are lagging behind will keep the numbers afloat or maybe they are just straight up fudged. I would think that once more vaccine gets into the system those numbers will scale up. I know Arizona has capacity to do more, but is out of vaccine in many places. Listening to neighboring states I think they are in similar situations. Things are changing hour-by-hour and most of it not for the good.

The Pfizer interval in the trial was 19-42 days; if they had no problem going up to 42 days and their trial showed no difference in efficacy with those intervals, then potentially (and only potentially) extending the interval to that length in the event of supply disruptions is a completely logical thing to do. Obviously you aim for the recommended dosing interval whereever possible. And with the US's robust and predictable supply, that shouldn't be an issue even if states don't hold all of their 2nd doses in storage.

You're correct, I misspoke. The earliest sample that had the B.1.1.7 variant was from September so the mutation occurred prior that point, though it wasn't identified as a variant of concern until December.

No worries. I don't want to get into an argument over efficacy of vaccine x versus vaccine y, and which interval is going to provide the greatest benefit as it is not my area of expertise. My comments are directly from the experts who are on site doing the administration of the vaccine. I listen to what they tell people and they they are adamant in telling people to return on a specific day and do not delay in getting the booster. I'm not going to go against someone who is doing this stuff and has the instructions from the feds. You could be right, but this is not the information being shared in our community or recipients of the vaccine. It just pisses me off because I have had to wait to get mine (right thing to do) and we have the capacity to meet the demand.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I also think if America doesn't enact a carbon tax, we should carbon tax their products, as well as severely tax online shopping from American Companies to encourage a Canadian on line market. Canada needs to start finding a counter buy Canadian policy.



Will be interested in seeing the government reaction to today's announcement.

Are you suggesting a trade war with the US?

[Manhattanboy]

Wasn't this all dealt with in the new USMCA?

Lol Trudeau will have nothing other than to acknowledge and respect Biden's decision.

He's as weak a leader as there is.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Wasn't this all dealt with in the new USMCA?

Lol Trudeau will have nothing other than to acknowledge and respect Biden's decision.

He's as weak a leader as there is.

I think he should sanction the US. Maybe mobilize some troops. At the very least start a trade war. Should make for a fun weekend.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by New Era

Are you suggesting a trade war with the US?

The trade war is over, we lost period.



But on top of buy america slaughtering the fact that they don't carbon tax, and we don't carbon tax imports should change.


If a nation without a carbon tax want to import, we should tax their goods.



If for example Saudi Arabia or the States wants to export Oil to us they either need to have to buy our clean tech, or pay a downstream tax just like Canadian Oil.

[burn_this_city]

Canada's plan at the Federal level will be to look all torn up about it and hope Joe slips in an exemption.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Can we stop pretending that there has ever been a damn thing any Canadian Prime Minister has ever been able to do to affect US economic policy, 30 odd years of getting effed on softwood lumber aught to have taught us that at least.

I'm no fan of the Liberals but even I recognize we have no leverage on Keystone or steel or anything else, Democratic administrations tend to be worse for Canada economically, more protectionists than GOP, its a shame the GOP have gone bat#### crazy.

Yeah, we are way more reliant on Canada-U.S. trade than the other way around. Only 2 states (Michigan and Vermont) where trade with Canada exceeds 10% of the annual economic output.

Canada really needs to get away from exporting so many raw unrefined natural resources to the U.S. It's too easy for the U.S. to produce or export the same resources from within or other sources. The average consumer on the street doesn't care about commodity prices, only end-phase products. The U.S. can manipulate commodity prices enough that the consumer isn't going to feel a huge pinch if Canada is pushed aside. They would have a much harder time manipulating the market more specialized products.

Canada needs to manufacture goods and refined products on a massive scale for cheaper than what the U.S. can and make American consumers demand products made in Canada. Canada produces almost nothing that consumers actually "want". Nobody wants lumber, steel, oil, or electricity. They are just necessary to make the stuff people actually do want. Making the things people actually want gives you much more influence in the U.S. where they have internal access to all the natural resources they need, but import manufactured goods like crazy because consumers still want cheap ####..

Of course, this would require Canada making a more business friendly environment. Our low dollar can't make up for the higher taxes any more. It's easy enough to say we need to produce more as a country, but at the base level, it is businesses that need to see Canada as a place to set up production.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Canada's plan at the Federal level will be to look all torn up about it and hope Joe slips in an exemption.

I was watching that Biden press conference and as much as some of the ministers that have been on tv have said, we'll work with America for exemptions. Joe ain't doing no exemptions, that's why he's forming a committee so he won't participate in decisions about waivers which would look unfair.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by opendoor

If everything you're saying is true, and places are all out of vaccine and there are no deliveries on the horizon, how are there 1M+ vaccinations per day throughout the country? And how are weekly vaccinations roughly matching the number of weekly delivered doses on the CDC site I linked? That would be impossible if the doses weren't ending up in the states' hands in regular intervals.

.

Can’t both be true, that 1M+ vaccinations are occurring country wide and that Arizona is out of vaccines?

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

I thought the 75% rule was part of the new NAFTA.

Anyways, this buy American thing is why Canadians in general will cheer against their own interests when it comes to American politics. Democrats have historically have been much ####tier compared to Republicans when it comes to trade and protectionism. Trump obviously bucked that trend, but really we gave up almost nothing in the new NAFTA. Obama was pretty terrible for buy American nonsense and Biden is expanding it. Get used to being treated like an afterthought by your left leaning kindred spirits.

I agree with what Biden is doing. I wish our government could enact more “buy Canadian” policies.

It’s naive to think Canada is anything but an afterthought to every American president, politician and citizen. We should be an afterthought. Why wouldn’t we be?