2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Beatle17

Ryan Johansen ?

probably the closest most recent example, yes. And it cost the Predators a equally valuable asset at the time. It was essentially a potential number 1C for a potential number 1 D. Worked out in favour of CBJ, but I suspect that is close to the type of return the Jackets will demand.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

They are basing Dubois on one playoff performance. I mean, if that's the criteria, why aren't we trading Bennett straight up for Dubois.

And remind me again how many more points did Dubois get vs. Monahan last playoffs? He must have at least tripled Monahan in production right?

It's just redonk some of the opinions the morning guys have on trade value.

There's more to hockey than points.

PLD showed signs of dominance over a team that most have pegged to win the North division. In Monahan's 4 playoff appearances, there's a pretty good argument to be made that he has never shown that type of ability to control a game, quite the opposite really. Look no further than this forum for a steady stream of complaints and arguments that Monahan falls well short of a legitimate No.1 C who can control a game.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Thornton is a pretty poor comparable. Just because Mike O'Connell made one of the worst deals in modern hockey history 15 years ago shouldn't be indicative of what Jarmo Kekalinen will do. Frankly, I would put zero stock on that deal. It was a one off deal that landed the GM of the Bruins on the outside of the GM's circle permanently. GM's around the league tend to take note of that sort of thing.

Same goes with Seguin. Bottom line, Kekalinen is far too shrewd a GM to mishandle this.

as for 'massively overpay' what does that mean? I think you are pretending to know what the market is on the player, but you don't. Friedman said yesterday that already GM's are making serious offers. There doesn't sound like there is much beating around the bush here. This is a prime asset set to hit the market, if he hasn't already. Again, the price will be steep.

I'm not necessarily of the mind that the Flames should do the trades the morning guys were suggesting, but I don't think they are far off the asking price.

"Are there even any comparables???"
"We can't use any of these comparables!!!"

Common dude. Kekalainen has made his fair share of errors as well, stop deifying him. The only reasonable way to look at this is using comparable players.

The seguin, duchene, and Johansen trades are the only way we will be able to project something like this, and you can bet that GMs league wide are using these to gauge value. It's not like CLB is holding all the cards here; they're not being forced to move him so are not powerless, but they are not playing from a position of absolute power like you're making it seem.

Let's use Duchene (from Colorado to Ottawa as it is more comparable age/draft position wise). It is complicated as a three way trade:

Nashville sends: Vlad Kamenev (42 OA in 2014), Sam Girard (47 OA in 2016), 2nd 2018
Ottawa Sends: Kyle Turris, Andrew Hammond, 1st 2018, 3rd 2019, Shane Bowers (28th OA 2017.)
Colorado Sends: Duchene


Now, we can break this down a few ways, but I prefer to see it as one of the following two:

Duchene = the value presented in the ottawa trade or Duchene = the sum value of all pieces moved less Turris.

In scenario 1, the comparable trade would be: Backlund+Rittich+1st 2021+ 3rd 2022+Zary

In scenario 2, the comparable trade would be: Rittich+1st 2021+3rd 2022+ Zary + Ruzicka + Kylington (or Mackey, or Kuznetsov)

There might be a small argument that scenario 1 could be seen as Monahan instead of Backlund. I counter that Turris had never reached the level of Monahan prior to (or since) this trade, and was older than Monahan at the time of the trade. I would be willing to use Monahan in the same value rubric but it would require the removal of zary. So Monahan+Rittich+2021 1st + 3rd 2022. I still think that's an overpay but I can see the argument. I cannot justify even a penny more.

This trade has been presented as a master stroke by Sakic. What is being proposed as value by the morning team would be far, far beyond this. It would make us look extremely foolish.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by TOfan

There's more to hockey than points.

PLD showed signs of dominance over a team that most have pegged to win the North division. In Monahan's 4 playoff appearances, there's a pretty good argument to be made that he has never shown that type of ability to control a game, quite the opposite really. Look no further than this forum for a steady stream of complaints and arguments that Monahan falls well short of a legitimate No.1 C who can control a game.

Sure, but PLD does not warrant that type of return for one playoff performance. I guess you're paying for potential, but I'd hope Flames steer clear if that's the asking price. Not saying he's a bad player, but there's no way he warrants what the morning guys were giving up.

It's really a case of the morning guys just totally underselling their own guys.

[Lanny_McDonald]

I would not be comfortable moving more than Monahan in a deal for Dubois. Based on what we've seen from Monahan throughout his career and the effort he's put in during camp, I am very comfortable moving forward with Monahan and not making a deal for Dubois. Having to give up other assets, well that is now a hard no.

[dammage79]

Those morning show guys always...and I mean always grossly exaggerate the "costs" of players available around the league.

I don't think there is even one time they came close to an actual value of a trade that occurred.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Sure, but PLD does not warrant that type of return for one playoff performance. I guess you're paying for potential, but I'd hope Flames steer clear if that's the asking price. Not saying he's a bad player, but there's no way he warrants what the morning guys were giving up.

It's really a case of the morning guys just totally underselling their own guys.

Fair enough, they've certainly been wrong in the past.

I don't watch enough CBJ games to pretend to know. That said, PLD is pretty highly regarded based on what I have read and podcasts I listen to. He seems to be on a trajectory that could see him become an elite 1C. The last time the Flames had that was roughly 30 years ago with Nieuwendyk. PLD may not get there, but there seems to be a good chance of it. Also have to think playing in Columbus under Tort's has somewhat dampened his counting numbers and league wide exposure, which apparently is part of his reasoning for wanting to leave.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Those morning show guys always...and I mean always grossly exaggerate the "costs" of players available around the league.

I don't think there is even one time they came close to an actual value of a trade that occurred.

What kills me is their general disdain for fans/listeners proposals, but their own are some of the most off-base, absolutely ridiculous proposals out there.

Almost as if their marching orders are to hammer the viewership into undervaluing and lowering expectations for the organization.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Fair enough, they've certainly been wrong in the past.

I don't watch enough CBJ games to pretend to know. That said, PLD is pretty highly regarded based on what I have read and podcasts I listen to. He seems to be on a trajectory that could see him become an elite 1C. The last time the Flames had that was roughly 30 years ago with Nieuwendyk. PLD may not get there, but there seems to be a good chance of it. Also have to think playing in Columbus under Tort's has somewhat dampened his counting numbers and league wide exposure, which apparently is part of his reasoning for wanting to leave.

Monahan trended that way after 3 years too. In fact, if you look at the numbers, Monahan's first 3 years were way more impressive than Dubois. The most I'd give up for PLD is Monahan and a mid round pick or mid level prospect. If it takes more than that, then Flames should just hang up the phone.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Monahan trended that way after 3 years too. In fact, if you look at the numbers, Monahan's first 3 years were way more impressive than Dubois. The most I'd give up for PLD is Monahan and a mid round pick or mid level prospect. If it takes more than that, then Flames should just hang up the phone.

Yes, Monahan's numbers were better, no arguing that, but PLD hasn't had the good fortune of playing alongside for, at times, one of the leagues elite wingers who drives play and is a premier playmaker.

PLD could very well be a 6'3" version of Sean Monahan who actually plays like he is 6'3" and not 5'8".

it sometimes seems like Monahan plays the game saying things like 'sorry, excuse me coming through, beep beep, hheeyyyy!?!'

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Yes, Monahan's numbers were better, no arguing that, but PLD hasn't had the good fortune of playing alongside for, at times, one of the leagues elite wingers who drives play and is a premier playmaker.

PLD could very well be a 6'3" version of Sean Monahan who actually plays like he is 6'3" and not 5'8".

PLD put up those 61pts with Panarin on his wing. He hasn’t hit 50 without him.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Thornton is a pretty poor comparable. Just because Mike O'Connell made one of the worst deals in modern hockey history 15 years ago shouldn't be indicative of what Jarmo Kekalinen will do. Frankly, I would put zero stock on that deal. It was a one off deal that landed the GM of the Bruins on the outside of the GM's circle permanently. GM's around the league tend to take note of that sort of thing.

Same goes with Seguin. Bottom line, Kekalinen is far too shrewd a GM to mishandle this.

as for 'massively overpay' what does that mean? I think you are pretending to know what the market is on the player, but you don't. Friedman said yesterday that already GM's are making serious offers. There doesn't sound like there is much beating around the bush here. This is a prime asset set to hit the market, if he hasn't already. Again, the price will be steep.

I'm not necessarily of the mind that the Flames should do the trades the morning guys were suggesting, but I don't think they are far off the asking price.

LOL. Your opinion is valid but mine isn't? Ok dude. Your opinion is the outlier here. That is probably where you should begin when assessing what is and what isn't valid.

Friedman saying there is lots of interest does not in any way indicate that your crazy price is validated.

[dammage79]

Read somewhere the Rangers will likely be all over PLD. And that makes so much more sense to me. They have actual assets that don't cut to their core. LAF-PLD-Panarin? Yeah.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Those morning show guys always...and I mean always grossly exaggerate the "costs" of players available around the league.

I don't think there is even one time they came close to an actual value of a trade that occurred.

EVERY time. And they never learn from it.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

LOL. Your opinion is valid but mine isn't? Ok dude. Your opinion is the outlier here. That is probably where you should begin when assessing what is and what isn't valid.

Friedman saying there is lots of interest does not in any way indicate that your crazy price is validated.

Not my price. Just relaying what the morning show said as a topic of conversation.

[Bonded]

Two extremes when it comes to valuations, superover valued homer projections and then super undervalued projections. PLD is overvalued and Monahan is undervalued. PLD is not worth a top line player and two more firsts/Valimaki.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

"Are there even any comparables???"
"We can't use any of these comparables!!!"

Common dude. Kekalainen has made his fair share of errors as well, stop deifying him. The only reasonable way to look at this is using comparable players.

The seguin, duchene, and Johansen trades are the only way we will be able to project something like this, and you can bet that GMs league wide are using these to gauge value. It's not like CLB is holding all the cards here; they're not being forced to move him so are not powerless, but they are not playing from a position of absolute power like you're making it seem.

Let's use Duchene (from Colorado to Ottawa as it is more comparable age/draft position wise). It is complicated as a three way trade:

Nashville sends: Vlad Kamenev (42 OA in 2014), Sam Girard (47 OA in 2016), 2nd 2018
Ottawa Sends: Kyle Turris, Andrew Hammond, 1st 2018, 3rd 2019, Shane Bowers (28th OA 2017.)
Colorado Sends: Duchene


Now, we can break this down a few ways, but I prefer to see it as one of the following two:

Duchene = the value presented in the ottawa trade or Duchene = the sum value of all pieces moved less Turris.

In scenario 1, the comparable trade would be: Backlund+Rittich+1st 2021+ 3rd 2022+Zary

In scenario 2, the comparable trade would be: Rittich+1st 2021+3rd 2022+ Zary + Ruzicka + Kylington (or Mackey, or Kuznetsov)

There might be a small argument that scenario 1 could be seen as Monahan instead of Backlund. I counter that Turris had never reached the level of Monahan prior to (or since) this trade, and was older than Monahan at the time of the trade. I would be willing to use Monahan in the same value rubric but it would require the removal of zary. So Monahan+Rittich+2021 1st + 3rd 2022. I still think that's an overpay but I can see the argument. I cannot justify even a penny more.

This trade has been presented as a master stroke by Sakic. What is being proposed as value by the morning team would be far, far beyond this. It would make us look extremely foolish.

Duchene was also 4 and a half years older than Dubois when he was traded. There is likely more value for a guy who is significantly younger and will be under team control for longer.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I thought Boomer and Rhett had it right. PLD isn't going to come cheap. There will likely be several serious bidders. Put yourself in Columbus' shoes. Most people here are more than prepared to move on from Monahan. Why would he be an appealing asset to CBJ? If I'm CBJ, sure, I will take him but I'm also taking Valamaki. I don't think Monahan would be the central piece coming back to CBJ. The Flames are going to have to sweeten the pot by a considerable margin if they want to include Monahan. If I'm CBJ and the Flames are not prepared to meet my price, I'm moving on. Some team out there will step up.

Lindholm + Hanafin + a 1st or Lindholm + Peltier + 1st is not far off the package CBJ would be looking for in my mind.

I don't care how many teams are in the bidding for PLD. If they are set on a package that includes a mid-20s-aged top-line forward, a mid-20s-aged top-four defenseman and a first round pick, then 30 teams are hanging up the phone. It is a price that maybe one or two teams can afford, and not in any scenario worth a promising but unproven player like Dubois.

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[MrMike]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Read somewhere the Rangers will likely be all over PLD. And that makes so much more sense to me. They have actual assets that don't cut to their core. LAF-PLD-Panarin? Yeah.

They already have Zibinijad as their number one center and he just had one hell of a year. Actually it makes sense if they offload Krieder/strome, maybe deangelo - he sounds like he’d fit in with some of those guys.

[SeanCharles]

I don’t think DeAngelo or Strome are part of their long-term plans so I’m sure they would be fine trading them away to get a center like PLD.