[Signing] Flames sign Jacob Markstrom. (6 yrs, $6mil AAV)

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

He posted an article with the intent to prove that Jacob Markstrom is not a top-ten NHL goalie, but then strenuously objected to the idea forwarded by the same article that the Flames are a Cup contending team.

ricardodw is an obvious trolling hypocrite.

I posted an article to show an outside opinion of where Markstrom might be evaluated. I did not comment if I agreed with the analysis.


The next post was saying that the Flames did not have significant things go wrong last season, relative to other teams last season.


You have a deficiency in your logic and a tendency to resort to personal attacks if not outright bullying.

[SportsJunky]

He's just asking questions folks!

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Jeez guys, can't someone make bad faith arguments without getting piled on any more?

[djsFlames]

Even if Markstrom is a 10-15 ranked goalie, its an upgrade.

We've had 20-60th ranked goalies since Kipper.

However, based on what I've seen of Markstrom's body of work over the last two seasons, I'm pretty certain he's currently top 10, possibly top 5 factoring the team he played behind.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

However, based on what I've seen of Markstrom's body of work over the last two seasons, I'm pretty certain he's currently top 10, possibly top 5 factoring the team he played behind.

He has questions around him still. Injuries at bad times and playing with a different goalie coach. That isn't to say he wasn't top five in Vancouver, but is to say why people are being some what bear-ish on him

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

He has questions around him still. Injuries at bad times and playing with a different goalie coach. That isn't to say he wasn't top five in Vancouver, but is to say why people are being some what bear-ish on him

Consider the people...Fans of our biggest rivals and posters who are negative about most things. I mean there is no sure thing on hockey but Markstrom being a top goalie is a good bet.

NHL GM's voted him 4th best goalie in the NHL in the most recent season

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

He has questions around him still. Injuries at bad times and playing with a different goalie coach. That isn't to say he wasn't top five in Vancouver, but is to say why people are being some what bear-ish on him

I'm a little concerned with the Sigalet factor but Talbot seemed to play better as a Flame so hopefully he's improving as a goaltender coach. The silver lining is that the Flames have invested heavily in Markstrom and if his play declines under Sigalet it may finally force the organization to go into a different direction with the goaltending coach which is what many of us have wanted for some time.

[Bingo]

Things going wrong doesn't have to be massive injuries.

The Flames had huge production steps back for most of their key players ... Monahan and Gaudreau falling below career averages, Tkachuk and Giordano falling off a cliff.

Things went too well in 2018-19, I'd be the first to admit that, but it isn't a nonsensical position to suggest that things corrected too far, and the team is likely to see their key players closer to career averages (Giordano and age not withstanding).

Add in better goaltending, and sure there's some reason for hope looking into a season.

Five on five
Tkachuk was below his rookie season in points/60 despite having comparable xG and chances to the previous season.
Gaudreau 1.76/60 vs 4 years averaging 2.5
Monahan 1.5/60 vs averaging 2.3 for previous 4 years
Lindholm off, but up on his career average

Lots of data suggesting last year was an off year, and likely to bounce back to one degree or another.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Things going wrong doesn't have to be massive injuries.

The Flames had huge production steps back for most of their key players ... Monahan and Gaudreau falling below career averages, Tkachuk and Giordano falling off a cliff.

Things went too well in 2018-19, I'd be the first to admit that, but it isn't a nonsensical position to suggest that things corrected too far, and the team is likely to see their key players closer to career averages (Giordano and age not withstanding).

Add in better goaltending, and sure there's some reason for hope looking into a season.

Five on five
Tkachuk was below his rookie season in points/60 despite having comparable xG and chances to the previous season.
Gaudreau 1.76/60 vs 4 years averaging 2.5
Monahan 1.5/60 vs averaging 2.3 for previous 4 years
Lindholm off, but up on his career average

Lots of data suggesting last year was an off year, and likely to bounce back to one degree or another.

In 2018-19 Gio had a freaky career year. He won the Norris and was clearly the best D-man in the league. He was never was and will never be as good again. 74 pts!! How much did his play in 2018-19 inflate the rest of the teams stats line?

The Red Wings would not have been as good as they were if Lidstrom had only one year where he was the best D-man in the league.

My argument was that 2019-20 was more normal than 2018-19. The Flames were a top 8 team with Gio as the best d-man in the league. They are a second tier team with Gio as a top 15-20 d-man in the league.

Changing a coach that had the team playing lights out months before is NOT the worst thing that could possibly happen.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm a little concerned with the Sigalet factor but Talbot seemed to play better as a Flame so hopefully he's improving as a goaltender coach. The silver lining is that the Flames have invested heavily in Markstrom and if his play declines under Sigalet it may finally force the organization to go into a different direction with the goaltending coach which is what many of us have wanted for some time.

It's not a "Sigalet is a bad goalie coach" thing. It's a "goalies are ####ing weird" thing. You see it with goalies every now and then, as recently as Bobrovsky in Florida. Some goalie perform less good after they lose their coach. It's not that the new guy is bad, it's just that he doesn't speak the same.... ####ed up goalie language.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

In 2018-19 Gio had a freaky career year. He won the Norris and was clearly the best D-man in the league. He was never was and will never be as good again. 74 pts!! How much did his play in 2018-19 inflate the rest of the teams stats line?

The Red Wings would not have been as good as they were if Lidstrom had only one year where he was the best D-man in the league.

My argument was that 2019-20 was more normal than 2018-19. The Flames were a top 8 team with Gio as the best d-man in the league. They are a second tier team with Gio as a top 15-20 d-man in the league.

Changing a coach that had the team playing lights out months before is NOT the worst thing that could possibly happen.

Gio will likely never be as good again but I think he was equally as good in the 2 years of 2013-2015 where he missed significant time with injury but was pacing to over 60pts in both seasons despite playing on a bottom feeder and a fringe playoff team. Had Gio not been injured in 2015 I think he would have won the Norris that year as well. Gio has been a legit number 1 Dman for at least 7 seasons now

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

In 2018-19 Gio had a freaky career year. He won the Norris and was clearly the best D-man in the league. He was never was and will never be as good again. 74 pts!! How much did his play in 2018-19 inflate the rest of the teams stats line?

The Red Wings would not have been as good as they were if Lidstrom had only one year where he was the best D-man in the league.

My argument was that 2019-20 was more normal than 2018-19. The Flames were a top 8 team with Gio as the best d-man in the league. They are a second tier team with Gio as a top 15-20 d-man in the league.

Changing a coach that had the team playing lights out months before is NOT the worst thing that could possibly happen.

I didn't even include Giordano in my bounce back suggestion.

I did however, highlight the fact that the team's top four forwards all had results well under their career averages.

Your response literally refutes nothing I said.

[ForeverFlameFan]

2019 was our high, 2020 was our low.

I think we’re a #2/#3 team in a Canadian division.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I didn't even include Giordano in my bounce back suggestion.

I did however, highlight the fact that the team's top four forwards all had results well under their career averages.

Your response literally refutes nothing I said.

I am not saying that there is not a bounce back possibility. There is not a lot to bounce back from and it rests on the Flames best players actually being better than they played last year, specifically Gaudreau, Monahan and Gio.

Your analysis that Tkachuk had a massive fall off last year sort of supports my analysis. Tkachuk was clearly the Flames best player last season.

Had the other high priced talent played up to expectation Tkachuk could have easily added added 10 pts of 2nd assists... That puts him back up to a ppg.


Neither of us are suggesting that the Flames are locks on home ice playoff team, but it would not be a surprise. Neither was the drop off last season where they were 2 wins away from being a legit home ice team to start the playoffs last year.

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Somewhat back to topic... What was the net of games won less games lost because of Riitich and Talbot? How much will Markstrom change that net?


In 2017-18 and 2018-19 Markstom was not a positive difference maker for the Canucks. Last season he was. It was his 3rd year as a #1 . Is he getting better or was 2019-2020 his career year?

Maybe he will steal an extra 2-3 games and get the Flames into the top-4 in the West.


PS... and I realize that we will never know with the all Canadian division

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

In 2017-18 and 2018-19 Markstom was not a positive difference maker for the Canucks. Last season he was. It was his 3rd year as a #1 . Is he getting better or was 2019-2020 his career year?

Maybe he will steal an extra 2-3 games and get the Flames into the top-4 in the West.

Inaccurate. He was the best player on the team after November. It's why I am less concerned about this being a one year flash in the pan scenario.

[AC]

As for stealing an extra 2-3 games, it's worth bringing up again the In Goal analysis from before Markstrom signed that calculated Markstrom would have allowed 50 less goals than Rittich and Talbot did last year based on their strengths/weaknesses and the types of shots Calgary allowed.

Lots to like about the signing.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by AC

As for stealing an extra 2-3 games, it's worth bringing up again the In Goal analysis from before Markstrom signed that calculated Markstrom would have allowed 50 less goals than Rittich and Talbot did last year based on their strengths/weaknesses and the types of shots Calgary allowed.

Lots to like about the signing.

I guess the only caveat to apply to that analysis is that Markstrom will play only 60 games, and not 82. 50 goals in 82-games equates to a 37-GA improvement in 60.

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[AC]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I guess the only caveat to apply to that analysis is that Markstrom will play only 60 games, and not 82. 50 goals in 82-games equates to a 37-GA improvement in 60.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

It wasn't projecting forward, but simply plugging Markstrom into the Flames of last season. So it was 50 goals if he had played last year, which was a shortened season.

I'm not sure if the analysis was per a standard 82 games or per the Flames specific 70 games played.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I am not saying that there is not a bounce back possibility. There is not a lot to bounce back from and it rests on the Flames best players actually being better than they played last year, specifically Gaudreau, Monahan and Gio.

Three of the team's top players simultaneously suffering a precipitous drop-off in shooting-percentage and production from their career averages is most definitely a lot to bounce back from.

Your analysis that Tkachuk had a massive fall off last year sort of supports my analysis. Tkachuk was clearly the Flames best player last season.

Had the other high priced talent played up to expectation Tkachuk could have easily added added 10 pts of 2nd assists... That puts him back up to a ppg.


Neither of us are suggesting that the Flames are locks on home ice playoff team, but it would not be a surprise. Neither was the drop off last season where they were 2 wins away from being a legit home ice team to start the playoffs last year.

I would say it was surprising that the Flames fell short of a Divisional playoff spot. I expect them to be a top-three team once again this year

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[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I am not saying that there is not a bounce back possibility. There is not a lot to bounce back from and it rests on the Flames best players actually being better than they played last year, specifically Gaudreau, Monahan and Gio.

Your analysis that Tkachuk had a massive fall off last year sort of supports my analysis. Tkachuk was clearly the Flames best player last season.

Had the other high priced talent played up to expectation Tkachuk could have easily added added 10 pts of 2nd assists... That puts him back up to a ppg.


Neither of us are suggesting that the Flames are locks on home ice playoff team, but it would not be a surprise. Neither was the drop off last season where they were 2 wins away from being a legit home ice team to start the playoffs last year.

-----

Huh?

If the Flames best four forwards all had seasons where they were all off their last four seasons, three of them close to 25% down ... then clearly they are more than likely to improve from last season and find a settling spot somewhere between the extremes of the last two seasons.

That's a big bounce back angle ... no idea how you can say "not a lot to bounce back".

It's a team with four of it's key players likely to get improve year over year, a boost in depth, and a boost in net.