[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Next to none in private practice. Almost everything settles. Stuff that doesn't takes years to get to court or a hearing. In the rare occasion that it does get there, there are no "gotcha" moments. There's good transcript and bad transcript but no one goes "aha, I've won". It's more like gradually building a list of admissions and facts in evidence over the course of the hearing (which can last for weeks), hopefully in a way that the witness doesn't even clue into the importance of what you're doing.

The only similarity with TV is that they're both scripted - we know what our witnesses are going to say before we ask the question because we've done prep sessions with them (unless they screw up). We know what the other side's witnesses are going to say because we either have transcript of them saying it in discovery (which is the Canadian version of a deposition) or a document to hold them to, like an email where they say what we want the Court to hear them saying. There are rarely any siginificant surprises.

EDIT: This relates to my practice. I assume people who are doing files where the parties are individuals have a lot more chaos to deal with. I would never do family law, for example, for that reason among others.

Okay, cool. Thanks.

EDIT: NM on the rest. Too off topic.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Isn't this really the point though?

People like to say Nazi Germany because its a obvious fascist regime that comes to mind first, but I don't think they're implying America would be an exact replica of them.

Just that the ambitions seem to be there for Trump to take the country into an authoritarian state, and that it's not impossible as some like to believe.

It’s kind of impossible speculation, isn’t it? I mean, maybe? America can - and has - waded through incredible political turmoil many times in the past and emerged with its democratic and republican (I’m not talking parties) institutions intact.

[Vena]

Originally Posted by peter12

Historical context is totally different. People love the spectre of nAzI GeRManY because it sounds edgy and serious. Totalitarianism is a big deal and has only popped up in certain places at certain times. Institutions have to be weak and the movement has to be strong.

I could see America sliding into some kind of tin-pot authoritarianism that is short-lived. Something like Italy in the 1930s. Trump reminded me of Mussolini far more than Hitler. The reason being it was mostly show and fell apart rather quickly.

I studied with one of the foremost Canadian experts on tyranny, if that provides context.

I agree with this. I do think we are seeing these institutions tested and weakened. There is no serious opposition to Joe Biden amongst those in power, so no need to descend into madness this time.

Where happens in the future? I don't know. The US isn't going to descend into Nazism as we knew it the 1930s. It's likely that even if we see an authoritarian try to hold power, they won't be taken seriously. A lot of pieces would need to fall into place for an authoritarian to successfully hold power in the face of an electoral loss.

We do need to take this moment seriously, but we should still be able to rely on the institutions in place.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by peter12

Historical context is totally different. People love the spectre of nAzI GeRManY because it sounds edgy and serious. Totalitarianism is a big deal and has only popped up in certain places at certain times. Institutions have to be weak and the movement has to be strong.

I could see America sliding into some kind of tin-pot authoritarianism that is short-lived. Something like Italy in the 1930s. Trump reminded me of Mussolini far more than Hitler. The reason being it was mostly show and fell apart rather quickly.

I studied with one of the foremost Canadian experts on tyranny, if that provides context.

Ah, so it's acceptable to compare and contrast US politics to Fascist Italy, but you draw the line at Fascist Germany. There are no similarities whatsoever between the descent of the US into authoritarianism and Germany in the 30s. Got it.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Ah, so it's acceptable to compare and contrast US politics to Fascist Italy, but you draw the line at Fascist Germany. There are no similarities whatsoever between the descent of the US into authoritarianism and Germany in the 30s. Got it.

I didn’t mean Fascist Italy exactly. I meant a weaker kind of authoritarianism which has trouble infiltrating and taking over competing institutions within the political system. Even then, American federalism makes that pretty unlikely.

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by peter12

Historical context is totally different. People love the spectre of nAzI GeRManY because it sounds edgy and serious. Totalitarianism is a big deal and has only popped up in certain places at certain times. Institutions have to be weak and the movement has to be strong.

I could see America sliding into some kind of tin-pot authoritarianism that is short-lived. Something like Italy in the 1930s. Trump reminded me of Mussolini far more than Hitler. The reason being it was mostly show and fell apart rather quickly.

I studied with one of the foremost Canadian experts on tyranny, if that provides context.

I don’t buy the Mussolini comparison, as he wasn’t popular with the people like trump is.

Trumps followers have a genuine fanaticism about him. 40% of the USA seemingly blindly believes anything he says.

Trump is petty and vindictive, and willing to punish groups of people. It’s not hard to see how this goes bad. There are 650+ kids his administration seized that they can’t find parents or relatives for. That is barbaric, and was done early on in his time as president, when there were many more checks on his actions.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser

I don’t buy the Mussolini comparison, as he wasn’t popular with the people like trump is.

Trumps followers have a genuine fanaticism about him. 40% of the USA seemingly blindly believes anything he says.

Trump is petty and vindictive, and willing to punish groups of people. It’s not hard to see how this goes bad. There are 650+ kids his administration seized that they can’t find parents or relatives for. That is barbaric, and was done early on in his time as president, when there were many more checks on his actions.

Mussolini was enormously popular with Italians in the mid-1930s.

If you read my above post, I clarify what I meant.

Fascist Italy is a fascinating study.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by peter12

Guys, I just don’t think this peaceful transition into another democratically-elected Presidency smells like the Third Reich. What is so wild about that?

I agree that this is just dipping the toe in the waters and Biden will be president.

What I worry about is 2028 after Trump's second term and what might happen.

[edslunch]

Trump is a blowhard and will ultimately fold. His moves at DoD etc. are about his ego and not tolerating dissent rather than being part of a grand coup plan. He needs a way to leave without admitting anything so he can save face and continue to be relevant once out of office. Add in that he knows the GOP needs him and his base to win the Georgia runoffs - I’m sure he’s enjoying making them kow tow to him. But actually leading a coup - he doesn’t have it in him.

I hope.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

I agree that this is just dipping the toe in the waters and Biden will be president.

What I worry about is 2028 after Trump's second term and what might happen.

In 2028, Trump will be 82 years old. I have to think he will finally go away and leave the world in peace by then. But there will be some new person by then to pick up the mantle of “Trumpism” I suppose.

[peter12]

Trumpist populism is a concern, although, maybe not as big a one as people think. That is, it isn't a first-time thing for the Americans.

[ah123]

Sounds like Trump is using his tweets and rallies to set up his next business

President Trump has told friends he wants to start a digital media company to clobber Fox News and undermine the conservative-friendly network, sources tell Axios.

https://www.axios.com/trump-fox-news...0ffa42420.html

[TheIronMaiden]

Maybe I am not jaded enough, but even marginally anti-democratic practices should be intolerable.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by peter12

Historical context is totally different. People love the spectre of nAzI GeRManY because it sounds edgy and serious. Totalitarianism is a big deal and has only popped up in certain places at certain times. Institutions have to be weak and the movement has to be strong.

I could see America sliding into some kind of tin-pot authoritarianism that is short-lived. Something like Italy in the 1930s. Trump reminded me of Mussolini far more than Hitler. The reason being it was mostly show and fell apart rather quickly.

I studied with one of the foremost Canadian experts on tyranny, if that provides context.

I guess you meant this to be less frightening but in truth Mussolini ran Italy for 20 years, was only brought down because he followed the guy that he inspired and partially created into a world holocaust that took 20 million or more to stop, Benito might have been a lesser evil but he was still evil and he inspired a worse evil that damn near burned it all down.

How long would democracy last in Canada or the rest of the world if we had El Presidente Trump and his kids in charge next door for 30 or 40 years, South and Central America have trouble retaining democracy at the best of times, they would fall back in to dictatorship in a heartbeat, we'd go next, we might last a decade or so but in the end some populist would harness the same fears.

If he hadnt inspired Hitler and followed him Benito would have been no more likely to fall than Franco and Salazar and Italy would have been ruled by the buffoon for 40 years

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by ah123

Sounds like Trump is using his tweets and rallies to set up his next business





https://www.axios.com/trump-fox-news...0ffa42420.html

I'm shocked I tells ya.

It'll be like a perfect amalgamation of Fox News on crack and those prosperity preachers.


"Democrats are ruining the world and bathing in the blood of virgins, now send us $500 for our magical protection prayers or you'll be their next victim!"

[MissTeeks]

And there’s another one.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1326935589208403968

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

I'm shocked I tells ya.

It'll be like a perfect amalgamation of Fox News on crack and those prosperity preachers.


"Democrats are ruining the world and bathing in the blood of virgins, now send us $500 for our magical protection prayers or you'll be their next victim!"

This has been my prediction for some time.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by peter12

I didn’t mean Fascist Italy exactly. I meant a weaker kind of authoritarianism which has trouble infiltrating and taking over competing institutions within the political system. Even then, American federalism makes that pretty unlikely.

Federalism offers no protection whatsoever. Things will just deteriorate at different speeds, slower somewhere and faster someplace else.

Russia is a federation too for example. Germany was and is a federation.

Every federal level authoritarian is also a state level authoritarian. You can't have an authoritarian federal government without strong state level support.

In fact you could argue that a federal system makes it easier for things to go south, because a) there's an extra level of government pushing things b) "the new normal" that's worse than previous can begin to happen immediately in the states which are already authoritarian strongholds politically, even before they're made normal on a national level.

Basically a more complicated system just has more points of vulnerability.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I guess you meant this to be less frightening but in truth Mussolini ran Italy for 20 years, was only brought down because he followed the guy that he inspired and partially created into a world holocaust that took 20 million or more to stop, Benito might have been a lesser evil but he was still evil and he inspired a worse evil that damn near burned it all down.

How long would democracy last in Canada or the rest of the world if we had El Presidente Trump and his kids in charge next door for 30 or 40 years, South and Central America have trouble retaining democracy at the best of times, they would fall back in to dictatorship in a heartbeat, we'd go next, we might last a decade or so but in the end some populist would harness the same fears.

If he hadnt inspired Hitler and followed him Benito would have been no more likely to fall than Franco and Salazar and Italy would have been ruled by the buffoon for 40 years

Look, I didn't say it would be ideal or anything.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by peter12

Mussolini was enormously popular with Italians in the mid-1930s.

If you read my above post, I clarify what I meant.

Fascist Italy is a fascinating study.

Italy, Germany. We're arguing about a false dichotomy here.

People are not saying what happened in Germany or Italy will happen in the states, a river always carves a valley but never takes the same path. But we are saying is they are digging a valley, allowing bag actors to do damage to their institutions in similar ways, it may be true that they are starting with stronger institutions, but they already become a lot weaker than any of us had ever anticipated, and its time to call it out for what it is.

Minimizing what comparisons do exist because they are cliche at this point is pretty counter productive to the when we all need to be ringing alarm bells at this point.

I'd recommend listening to the opening monologue, of the most recent episode (The Crisis isn't Trump, its the Republican Part). he probably does a better job of articulating an appropriate level of alarm that I can.
https://www.vox.com/ezra-klein-show-podcast