2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yes but really that's much more rare isn't it? How many July 1st's do we all sit here amazed at some of the incredibly poor contracts handed out? NHL GM's screw up a lot. The fact that Trelving could be considered an average GM given his blunders is telling of how bad GM's are in general in this league. I will give GM's a pass when it comes to drafting as nobody has a crystal ball when it comes to predicting how good a teenage hockey player will be playing against men but pro scouting in this league sucks period.

Not really.

Your argument is that fan voting has a better track record than some GMs. But the problem with that is that 'fans' does not include the same people each time.

Groups will have a better track record than individuals, because groups, aggregately, have more information.

The stock market is a similar thing. Individuals rarely outperform the market by picking stocks because individuals have finite information, while the market (i.e. all investors in teh aggregate) has all information.

[NewFan]

There is Game 6 CGY-VAN series on TV in NHL Rewind. Flames played much faster game. D was always jumping to attack, and quickly enter the zone and kept fighting. It made more space and time Johnny and Monny. Johnny played with same style as now but he had lots more space to make play. I hope Ward implement a good system that makes our skilled guys can contribute more.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

EVERY individual has opinions that will turn out to be wrong. No one bats 100%. The difference with a GM is that their opinions are all public.

And it is also often the case that a GM's decision is widely panned but then turns out to be quite astute.

Paul Fenton was run out of Minnesota for the Fiala-Granlund trade. He’s not looking like such a dummy now, is he?

Remember when George McPhee showed he didn’t know anything about hockey by trading away Forsberg for Erat? And then he turned an expansion ream into an immediate Cup contender?

A GM who hits in 70 per cent of his deals is elite.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Paul Fenton was run out of Minnesota for the Fiala-Granlund trade. He’s not looking like such a dummy now, is he?
.

Coyle for Donato and Neideritter for Rask both look pretty bad still.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Not really.

Your argument is that fan voting has a better track record than some GMs. But the problem with that is that 'fans' does not include the same people each time.

Groups will have a better track record than individuals, because groups, aggregately, have more information.

The stock market is a similar thing. Individuals rarely outperform the market by picking stocks because individuals have finite information, while the market (i.e. all investors in teh aggregate) has all information.

I don't think I ever said that fans have a better track record. I just said that GM's make plenty of moves that fans immediately identify as poor and fans are correct a lot of the time.

[Vinny01]

Very bored so looking at the Habs for a Gaudreau trade. I find it interesting because Lavoie was saying it was rumored the Flames were trying to trade Gaudreau and I think all his sources are Montreal.

If the Habs are making the deal it is because they must win now and are looking for an elite player. Flames would be looking to win now and later.

The only deal that makes sense to me is Kotkaniemi, and Drouin for Johnny. Maybe throw in Ryan and Byron from both sides to give the Habs a top 9 C and balance the cap?

[jg13]

I personally do everything in my power to get Caufield included in a deal with MTL. Just like Gaudreau, Caufield put up a PPG in his first year in college.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Gaudreau for Caufield, Armia, and cond 2021 1st/2022 1st (2021 if MON makes playoffs, 2022 if MON misses playoffs).

EDIT: or change the pick to a 2nd and have us grab Danault.

[CliffFletcher]

Zero chance the Habs are moving Kotkaniemi. Having he and Suzuki as two of their top three centres on manageable deals is the central pillar of Bergevin’s plan.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Paul Fenton was run out of Minnesota for the Fiala-Granlund trade. He’s not looking like such a dummy now, is he?

Remember when George McPhee showed he didn’t know anything about hockey by trading away Forsberg for Erat? And then he turned an expansion ream into an immediate Cup contender?

A GM who hits in 70 per cent of his deals is elite.

Paul Fenton was run out of Minnesota because he was a dick as a boss, iirc.



The problem with fans judging trades it that a lot of fans make an immediate snap judgement, sometimes based on erroneous or outdated information, and that impression stays in their mind.


Remember how thrilled Leafs fans were to get Phaneuf and Giguere on the same day? Flames and Ducks fans knew both were in decline. Leafs fans didn't.


Trades need to be judged later, often years later, but that's no fun. That's why everyone declares winners and losers on deadline day, even though it's really impossible too.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by Ped

Paul Fenton was run out of Minnesota because he was a dick as a boss, iirc.



The problem with fans judging trades it that a lot of fans make an immediate snap judgement, sometimes based on erroneous or outdated information, and that impression stays in their mind.


Remember how thrilled Leafs fans were to get Phaneuf and Giguere on the same day? Flames and Ducks fans knew both were in decline. Leafs fans didn't.


Trades need to be judged later, often years later, but that's no fun. That's why everyone declares winners and losers on deadline day, even though it's really impossible too.

Phaneuf was not on a decline. He had productive years in Toronto, rest of that leafs team sucked. That was and will remain a terrible trade by Sutter.

Giguere was on a decline and had lost his job Hiller. Not like Leafs paid much to get him.

As far as erroneous and outdated information, disagree. It's not like fans are blind. They can see how and the what players have done in the last few years and how project to be. It's not like GMs/pro scouts are sitting there with a crystal ball.

If anything Its the teams with outdated information on players. You often hear how a GM had been after a player for 2-3 years and finally got him. Or the trade discussion started a year ago and we came to terms. In todays age players decline rapidly yet the GM who saw a good showing at least a year back was still after the guy.

The general consensus amongst fan for the most part if same and its not wrong. Lindholm is great, Tkachuk is great, Gio on decline, Monahan is 2nd line C etc. etc.

Rarely you get a debatable player (usually a prospect who hasnt made it but shows some glimpses) like Bennett for example, half think he needs top 6 minutes with good players the other half thinks he's a 3rd/4th liner, and imo when its all set and done he'll be 2nd/3rd line tweener.

I have to agree with the person who said pro scouting is brutal in the NHL. If you follow a player for multiple games and only focus on him and you still screw up then you're not good at your job at all.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I suppose that depends on what fans they listen to and how good the GM is in the first place as there are several in this league that aren't very good. Plenty of GM's make moves that fans immediately identify as poor that play out as poorly as fans predicted they would.

I’ve seem way more posts here suggesting things that would have turned out horribly bad.

I would suggest that GM’s have quite a bit higher batting average than fans do.


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[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Gaudreau for Caufield, Armia, and cond 2021 1st/2022 1st (2021 if MON makes playoffs, 2022 if MON misses playoffs).

EDIT: or change the pick to a 2nd and have us grab Danault.

Grosse. That would be terrible for the Flames.

[djsFlames]

How many teams has Armia been passed through?

I can't understand getting excited over hypothetically dealing Gaudreau for someone's garage sale goods.

"They'll make it cause Gaudreau's the best player in the deal!"

Cool but then why would we make it?

[Jiri Hrdina]

From an asset management POV it isn't bad. Armia is a useful two-way player who would be the Corey Millen of this trade, if you will.

But the prizes are Caufield (who has tremendous goal scoring prowess) and the 1st. The approach would be to flip a player approaching UFA status to re-start the clock on those assets.

However, it doesn't align to the types of deals it seems the Flames would be looking for given the other moves made - they are in a compete now mode.

Perhaps that changes approaching the deadline if the team is doing poorly - but I don't see them making a deal like this now.

[Hackey]

Hopefully Gaudreau gets back to being the offensive threat he was otherwise he doesn't help us in our "compete now" window, and we lose the ability to gain some assets for the future as his value decreases. Almost the worst of both worlds in that scenario.

[Sandman]

I'm repeating myself, but I think we're getting buttered up for a Mony trade. We keep hearing how they would like to try Lindholm at C. Perhaps management feels Johnny needs a faster, more play-driving C....

[DomeFoam]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Grosse. That would be terrible for the Flames.

You expect to get more than a blue chip prospect, 1st round pick and roster player for Gaudreau? I have news for you...

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by DomeFoam

You expect to get more than a blue chip prospect, 1st round pick and roster player for Gaudreau? I have news for you...

Makes the team worse this season=not happening

[DomeFoam]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Makes the team worse this season=not happening

I didn't say it was happening