[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by octothorp

So I saw earlier that Biden was to speak tonight, but it looks like he hasn't yet? Is he waiting for a call? Is the reason for the delay known?

Pretty sure they have been waiting for the networks to call it so he can declare victory.

[GGG]

I think the other Majors want Fox to call it do it isn’t a conspiracy and Fox probably doesn’t want to defeat Trump because it affects their viewership given TNN is coming.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Murph

Surely to god, that’s enough to call Pennsylvania...

NBC won't call it until it's at 35k or so, I'm guessing most networks are going to do the same, maybe even higher. We all know how this is going to end, they're just being extra cautious.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by octothorp

So I saw earlier that Biden was to speak tonight, but it looks like he hasn't yet? Is he waiting for a call? Is the reason for the delay known?

No reason for the delay that I can find. Word is he's just gonna do another "let's all calm down and allow the process to play out" speech. But you might be right, perhaps they're waiting to see if he gets enough votes in PA to claim victory.

Speaking of which, what exactly is the protocol on that? Does Biden have to wait until Trump concedes? Because we all know that will never happen. Or can Biden claim victory after all the networks call it? Just curious.

[IGGYFORMVP]

If there was ever election that proves every single vote counts it is this one. Next time an election comes around and if you are wondering whether or not to vote remember this.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by GGG

They don’t process mail in ballots until the last day to receive them. Same as North Carolina.

Wait a minute... Biden’s only down 76,479 in NC, and they haven’t even started counting the mail-ins yet? Is that another potential flip?

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by New Era

The Arizona count is looking more and more sketchy as we go. Every time a new tranche is counted, not significantly closing the gap, they stumble on even more ballots that increases the number available. This has happened multiple times. Went from 389,660, to 524,269, to 1,038,753 a couple days ago. That I could kind of understand.
But they went from 245,859 to 234,544 to 248,463 nine hours ago. Then from 213,113 to 212,909 to 258,099 two hours ago. Every time Trump starts falling off the pace he needs to win the state, new ballots are found and added to the counting. Arizona has already counted a record 3,225,905 of a supposed 3,258,940 ballots cast, which should leave 33,305 left to count, beyond the 36,816 advantage Biden is holding. Yet the numbers Arizona is now reporting is still 252,339 ballots yet to count. Their math is not consistent. The last update has more votes for senate being cast than those cast for president! Something is bull#### in Arizona.

[CalgaryFan1988]

NBC said earlier that Biden was to speak, but then without an announcement coming from Penn they expect he will hold off speaking until afterwards.

[Minnie]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324902592242192386

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GGG

You know you sound just as ridiculous as some republicans in Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The arguments you are making are the same.

Look at the data yourself.

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-elec...e-changes.html

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by direwolf

No reason for the delay that I can find. Word is he's just gonna do another "let's all calm down and allow the process to play out" speech. But you might be right, perhaps they're waiting to see if he gets enough votes in PA to claim victory.

I think the play is to get him some “Presidential” “voice of reason” airtime. Just to make sure there isn’t a vacuum while the current one is bouncing around in his rubber room.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Wait a minute... Biden’s only down 76,479 in NC, and they haven’t even started counting the mail-ins yet? Is that another potential flip?

If he can win the mail-ins to a similar degree that he won them in Pennsylvania and Georgia, he's got a shot.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by octothorp

If he can win the mail-ins to a similar degree that he won them in Pennsylvania and Georgia, he's got a shot.

Wow, if he flips NC’s 15 EVs, that’s 358-217.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Wait a minute... Biden’s only down 76,479 in NC, and they haven’t even started counting the mail-ins yet? Is that another potential flip?

Sorry it’s just mail ins received after Election Day.

Up to 171,000 I think.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Wait a minute... Biden’s only down 76,479 in NC, and they haven’t even started counting the mail-ins yet? Is that another potential flip?

Here’s 538s latest update on NC

No updates until next week:

North Carolina: North Carolina has counted every ballot it had in its possession as of Tuesday, and Trump leads by 76,737 votes among them. However, the state has announced that about 117,000 mail-in ballots and 40,766 provisional ballots are potentially outstanding, although not all of them will count. Mail-in ballots have until Nov. 12 to arrive, and only at that point will more results be released.

[octothorp]

Was North Carolina one of the states where he told his supporters that they should vote twice, once by mail and once in person? Wonder how many took him up on that suggestion?

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by GGG

Sorry it’s just mail ins received after Election Day.

Up to 171,000 I think.

So he just needs 45% of those? That seems reasonable to me, based on how close NC already is and how the mail-ins in other swing states have been going.

I mean I’m still pretty new to how this all works, so I’m most likely sticking the carrot on the back of the wagon.

[GirlySports]

so you guys think everyone is waiting for FOX to call it first?

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by New Era

The Arizona count is looking more and more sketchy as we go. Every time a new tranche is counted, not significantly closing the gap, they stumble on even more ballots that increases the number available. This has happened multiple times. Went from 389,660, to 524,269, to 1,038,753 a couple days ago. That I could kind of understand.
But they went from 245,859 to 234,544 to 248,463 nine hours ago. Then from 213,113 to 212,909 to 258,099 two hours ago. Every time Trump starts falling off the pace he needs to win the state, new ballots are found and added to the counting. Arizona has already counted a record 3,225,905 of a supposed 3,258,940 ballots cast, which should leave 33,305 left to count, beyond the 36,816 advantage Biden is holding. Yet the numbers Arizona is now reporting is still 252,339 ballots yet to count. Their math is not consistent. The last update has more votes for senate being cast than those cast for president! Something is bull#### in Arizona.

Can’t speak for AZ specifically but I’ve heard the media, and the site you just linked, say that the number of votes remaining is unknown. Nobody knows. Not until they’ve counted them all.

Obviously if the count gets out of hand and is beyond a reasonable number of votes cast, it’ll raise questions but I see no reason to do that now.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

So he just needs 45% of those? That seems reasonable to me, based on how close NC already is and how the mail-ins in other swing states have been going.

I mean I’m still pretty new to how this all works, so I’m most likely sticking the carrot on the back of the wagon.

So going by 538s number there are 157,000 ballots so he would need 75ish% to close the gap.

The bigger problem is my understanding is that’s outstanding ballots as opposed to ballots in hand and that provisional ballots don’t always get accepted. So it’s unlikely there are enough votes left. But I haven’t really gone into a deep dive.