[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

This is not a rebuttal to my post. It's old information.

Trump lead down below 100k in PA, down to 97,900.

It's not 'old' it's a slightly larger sample size

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Trump lead in PA is down to 101,000.


COUNT FASTER. I’m dying over here.

It's kinda like watching Michigan slowly swing blue the other day. You almost can't believe it's happening.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

In the last 10 "blocks" of votes, Biden has gotten 65.5, 62.5, 64.7, 52.3, 64.7, 69.1, 79.3, 56.7, 61.8 and 69.2% of votes. Which is still good, but it can't start regularly dipping into the 50's or it's going to be a problem.

Looking into this further, it really depends on where those votes are coming from and the raw number of votes in each block. For example, if Biden is getting 56.7% from a deep red rural district, that's really good! If he's getting 56.7% from deep blue Philadelphia, then that's not going to cut it. Unfortunately, I'm not sure if we can really draw many conclusions from this data without more info, but knowing that isn't stopping me from stress refreshing the page every five minutes.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Dave, whose name isn't Nate, still thinks PA is a stone cold lock.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324456769817640961

[FlameOn]

What I find most disturbing regardless of a Biden win is >40% of Americans would rather live in some fantasy world where the facts and the rule of law no longer apply so long as they are told they are better than the rest of the world or their leader is stepping on someone they hate.

It doesn't matter one bit to them their country has been taken over by a corrupt buffoon who sees them as nothing more than human cattle and is hell bent on turning their country into his own personal fiefdom.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Looking into this further, it really depends on where those votes are coming from and the raw number of votes in each block. For example, if Biden is getting 56.7% from a deep red rural district, that's really good! If he's getting 56.7% from deep blue Philadelphia, then that's not going to cut it.

Yep, that's a very good point. One thing to note is, you can see the size of the tranches seems to correspond to how he's doing in the tranche in terms of win ratio.

So the last tranche was about 13,000 votes that he won by 80% - that's probably from Philadelphia. The ones before are 4000-5000, they might be from other smaller counties. That would bode pretty well in terms of him staying comfortably over that 60% threshold overall.

[Looch City]

How much are Trump and the Trumpers ####ting themselves right now?

I mean after every single batch of votes comes in favour of Biden. It's great to watch their anguish.

[dino7c]

Mail in Ballots are breaking 8-1 for Biden...PA won't even be close

Honestly when everything is in the election won't be close...it was only mail in ballots counted last that made it seem close

[Strange Brew]

Just very unlikely Georgia is decided this week. Yes recounts rarely overturn a result but a margin of 500 or fewer votes in a state that size is almost nothing it seems to me.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

In the last 10 "blocks" of votes, Biden has gotten 65.5, 62.5, 64.7, 52.3, 64.7, 69.1, 79.3, 56.7, 61.8 and 69.2% of votes. Which is still good, but it can't start regularly dipping into the 50's or it's going to be a problem.

That’s true but the “blocks” have not all been of equal size. Based on how quickly the lead is evaporating I think he is doing much better than 56.7 among newly counted votes on average.

I think (but don’t know) that some of these votes are from rural Trump leaning counties that counted all of their E-Day vote on Tuesday. That’s partly based on Dave Wassermann tweeting about updated totals from across the state today.

Lead is down to 97,200. Was 265,000 a day ago.

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Looch City

How much are Trump and the Trumpers ####ting themselves right now?

I mean after every single batch of votes comes in favour of Biden. It's great to watch their anguish.

Trump is dying such a slow painful death the last couple days. Losing it on twitter while everyone just ignores his ridiculous made up claims and twitter censors him. His election night speech was one of the crazier things I've seen in politics and even his own supporters just kind of took it with a meh. Dude must be melting down completely in private.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Looch City

How much are Trump and the Trumpers ####ting themselves right now?

I mean after every single batch of votes comes in favour of Biden. It's great to watch their anguish.

If they don’t understand why this is happening or are mislead about it they would be seething with anger at the banana republic-like spread in incoming votes. Clearly the Democrats must be cheating!!

[devo22]

to be fair, if the only person left in your corner (outside of your children) is Rudy ####ing Giuliani, you'd absolutely lose it too

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

That’s true but the “blocks” have not all been of equal size. Based on how quickly the lead is evaporating I think he is doing much better than 56.7 among newly counted votes on average.

I think (but don’t know) that some of these votes are from rural Trump leaning counties that counted all of their E-Day vote on Tuesday. That’s partly based on Dave Wassermann tweeting about updated totals from across the state today.

Lead is down to 97,200. Was 265,000 a day ago.

And 700,000 a day before that.

But I'm saying that the breakdown of vote totals from yesterday is meaningless. The question is what the vote breakdown is in counties being counted right now. I think if there really are 85,000 plus Philadelphia ballots still out there, he should take the lead, but I really don't buy the 100-200k lead by the time they're done. I'm no expert though, it just doesn't seem like it's going to trend that way. The 75% biden votes are not dominating the way they were before and there are a lot more smaller - but still substantial - ~60% blocks coming in. That is becoming more and more the case over the course of the day.

If I were to guess, I would think he gets about 65% of the remaining mail-in vote, and he needs 60%, so that's enough. Just not enough to avoid recounts and snafus.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Trump is dying such a slow painful death the last couple days. Losing it on twitter while everyone just ignores his ridiculous made up claims and twitter censors him. His election night speech was one of the crazier things I've seen in politics and even his own supporters just kind of took it with a meh. Dude must be melting down completely in private.

I still don't understand why he ran for president at all. If he's actually anywhere near as rich as he claims he is, why not just play golf and bang his trophy wife all the time? Is he really so much of a racist and a fragile snowflake that he took it personally when a Black man made fun of him at the White House Press Correspondents' dinner? And everything over the last five years is just an act of petty revenge to spite Obama?

...don't answer that.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

I still don't understand why he ran for president at all. If he's actually anywhere near as rich as he claims he is, why not just play golf and bang his trophy wife all the time? Is he really so much of a racist and a fragile snowflake that he took it personally when a Black man made fun of him at the White House Press Correspondents' dinner? And everything over the last five years is just an act of petty revenge to spite Obama?

...don't answer that.

It was all a popularity stunt to get back in the spotlight. After the Apprentice ended he was looking for a way to make quick cash and talk up the Trump name.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

And 700,000 a day before that.

But I'm saying that the breakdown of vote totals from yesterday is meaningless. The question is what the vote breakdown is in counties being counted right now. I think if there really are 85,000 plus Philadelphia ballots still out there, he should take the lead, but I really don't buy the 100-200k lead by the time they're done. I'm no expert though, it just doesn't seem like it's going to trend that way. The 75% biden votes are not dominating the way they were before and there are a lot more smaller - but still substantial - ~60% blocks coming in. That is becoming more and more the case over the course of the day.

If I were to guess, I would think he gets about 65% of the remaining mail-in vote, and he needs 60%, so that's enough. Just not enough to avoid recounts and snafus.

And I am saying that data points do not represent a trend because they are too small, and different counties have different trends.

The last 22k votes (over the last couple hours) looks like this:

Trump: 5,681
Biden: 16,454 (74.3)

Yes, some rural counties have been in the 50s, but they are small amounts. The larger numbers are consistently coming in closer to 80%

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And I am saying that data points do not represent a trend because they are too small, and different counties have different trends.

The last 22k votes (over the last couple hours) looks like this:

Trump: 5,681
Biden: 16,454 (74.3)

Yes, some rural counties have been in the 50s, but they are small amounts. The larger numbers are consistently coming in closer to 80%

yeah, this. Unless I've missed something, Biden has taken 55k out of 72k in PA today (~76%). That might not be sustainable, but that's a ton of cushion when 60% is what you need.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Yep, that's a very good point. One thing to note is, you can see the size of the tranches seems to correspond to how he's doing in the tranche in terms of win ratio.

So the last tranche was about 13,000 votes that he won by 80% - that's probably from Philadelphia. The ones before are 4000-5000, they might be from other smaller counties. That would bode pretty well in terms of him staying comfortably over that 60% threshold overall.

538 blog just said the latest PA batch was split roughly between Philly County and Erie County, and still 80%+ Biden. Extremely good news for Biden camp.

[burn_this_city]

If Philly pulls this off, I think they're redeemed for the Bill Burr Philadelphia incident.