[GT] US election - It's 2020, what could possibly go wrong?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I just laughed for like ten minutes:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324175651515949056

Sounds like she wanted to be a rapper and somehow ended up there

[Senator Clay Davis]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324179308760436736

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Yeah, I'm on the PA website and I'm way less confident. There are about 760,000 mail ballots outstanding. However, only 165,000 of those are in Philadelphia or Allegheny.

There are 77,000 in York county (Trump +25 on Election Day), 10,000 in Crawford (Trump +59), 12,000 in Mercer (Trump +42), 4000+ in Greene (Trump +65), 4500 in Tioga (Trump +66), 5000+ in Armstrong (Trump +64), and 5000 in Carbon (Trump +46), among other places.

So assuming that the remaining mail-in ballots to be counted will be heavily (60+%) Biden so as to erase the current lead seems... unlikely.

[FlamesAddiction]

Angelic forces are being dispatched from Africa and South America.

Can we build a wall and make them pay for it?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

His bigly logic here a) just ignores the fact that Biden is already leading, and b) assumes that Republicans are more likely to use ball point pens than Democrats are.

If ball point pens were provided at the ballot boxes, it would be likely that more Democratic ballots (which are more heavily mail-in) would be marked with other instruments.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Yeah, I'm on the PA website and I'm way less confident. There are about 760,000 mail ballots outstanding. However, only 165,000 of those are in Philadelphia or Allegheny.

There are 77,000 in York county (Trump +25 on Election Day), 10,000 in Crawford (Trump +59), 12,000 in Mercer (Trump +42), 4000+ in Greene (Trump +65), 4500 in Tioga (Trump +66), 5000+ in Armstrong (Trump +64), and 5000 in Carbon (Trump +46), among other places.

So assuming that the remaining mail-in ballots to be counted will be heavily (70+%) Biden so as to erase the current lead seems... unlikely.

I gave up on Pennsylvania a while ago, since it's such an unknown and such a hot mess. Basically, I don't want to have to think about it. Arizona and Nevada are where it's at as far as I'm concerned, with Georgia thrown in as a curiosity because the numbers are just so bananas.



But yeah: I wouldn't trust any trends coming out of Pennsylvania (or even the final count, for that matter).

[Red]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Yeah, I'm on the PA website and I'm way less confident. There are about 760,000 mail ballots outstanding. However, only 165,000 of those are in Philadelphia or Allegheny.

There are 77,000 in York county (Trump +25 on Election Day), 10,000 in Crawford (Trump +59), 12,000 in Mercer (Trump +42), 4000+ in Greene (Trump +65), 4500 in Tioga (Trump +66), 5000+ in Armstrong (Trump +64), and 5000 in Carbon (Trump +46), among other places.

So assuming that the remaining mail-in ballots to be counted will be heavily (60+%) Biden so as to erase the current lead seems... unlikely.

But since they are mailed in, doesnt that suggest they are ~75% Biden?

[troutman]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324179647903473676

Apparently there are:
~340k ballots left in Maricopa County AZ
~46k in Pima County
~18k in Yuma County
<1k in La Paz County
~13k in Coconino County
@ryanmatsumoto1

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Red

But since they are mailed in, doesnt that suggest they are ~75% Biden?

Not necessarily. It probably means he will outperform the election day voting in those counties in those votes, but when you're in a Trump +60% county, it stands to reason that it's still going to be pro-trump vote, even if it's +40 or +30 instead.

The point is, for every area in which Biden is running up the score and catching up, there appears to be another county where he will not do that, and that would lower his overall average in the outstanding mail-in ballots such that he doesn't ultimately catch up.

I am not an expert like Nate Cohn, but the numbers just in the chart really clash from things that are being said by him and Silver. For Silver to not even acknowledge how many of those outstanding mail in ballots are in Trump-dominated counties when he says "he's been winning the mail in ballots by 40 points" strikes me as quite misleading.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Red

But since they are mailed in, doesnt that suggest they are ~75% Biden?

One of the things that makes PA so confusing I think is the fact that some counties didn’t count mail-in ballots AT ALL yesterday, but counted 100% of the Election Day vote.

What that means is it is entirely conceivable that a district Trump carries by a lot will report a batch of mail ballots today that favours Biden.

[djsFlames]

Rumblings just now that for the first time Biden is projected to win Georgia.

If he does AZ can flip back to Trump with no issue.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Biden is a massive favorite on the betting sites and his % margin will probably be bigger than Wisconsin.

[Red]

I may be wrong here, but I thought all Pennsylvania ballots left to count are mail-ins. So majority should be for Biden.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324179308760436736

https://twitter.com/user/status/1324179823565131777

I'm thinking PA is Biden's strongest case left.

[Matty81]

If that tweet is accurate and those two Arizona college counties break 60% Biden, Trump would need to take roughly 220k of the remaining 340k votes in Maricopa to win. And appreciating that GOP voters mailed in historically, I think with the trend of democratic voters having mailed in elsewhere the likelihood of those votes breaking 65-35 for Trump and getting him into the lead seems like a reach, you can see why it's been declared by some outlets, although still close.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Rumblings just now that for the first time Biden is projected to win Georgia.

If he does AZ can flip back to Trump with no issue.

Didn’t a media outlet call Georgia for Biden yesterday for a brief period? Or maybe not call, but I certainly remember something from a news source that said Biden would win it. I remember looking at the map and not understanding what they were talking about at the time.

[bluejays]

I'm lost in this thread. Somehow everyone know everything about each county and how to project a win. I thought the TV was overwhelming.

[TheScorpion]

Margin in Georgia is now just 32k, per AP.

[djsFlames]

The gap is currently 33,000 in Georgia. But we're into the final percentile of votes.

So, hm..

[Minnie]

Trump has officially done more to try and stop the election results than he has to stop coronavirus.