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View Poll Results: Who would you vote for?
Biden 6 66.67%
Trump 3 33.33%
Kanye/other/Independent 0 0%
Would not vote 0 0%
Voters: 9. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-03-2020, 07:45 PM   #681
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Fox is calling Virginia for Biden.
They did that over an hour ago.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:45 PM   #682
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We'll see, but I would note that if you're going by the RealClearPolitics polling average, it actually had Trump winning NC by 0.2%. So pretty much a toss-up.

Either way, North Carolina and Ohio are a lost cause, and the election depends very heavily on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
I’ve been using 538’s averages for comparison for polling error.

Arizona is probably out given the Latino performance so far. So Biden’s last path is Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:45 PM   #683
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NATE SILVER
NOV. 3, 9:42 PM
I’ve been looking a bit at Johnson County, Kansas (the wealthy Kansas City suburbs), where Biden is +8 with 98 percent reported. Trump won it by +3 in 2016. If that Johnson County result is as complete as claimed, it would be a good sign for Biden in other Midwestern suburbs.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:45 PM   #684
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Winning an election doesn't make Trump smart, he's objectively shockingly dumb when it comes to the job.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:45 PM   #685
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Man it’s maddening taking to anyone who ‘isn’t for Trump’ but ‘can’t stand Biden’ or ‘couldn’t stand Clinton’. That is the perfect example of what the conversation is.

But those... emmmmmaiillls though!! And she’s a Pedophile in a pizzashop too didn’t you know?

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Old 11-03-2020, 07:46 PM   #686
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Apparently the proportion of early votes counted in Ohio is low and is going to go up significantly. I would expect that state to end up close. Still, definitely the people too embarrassed to admit they were voting trump to the pollsters clearly at play again.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:46 PM   #687
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The betting sites are favouring trump 2-1 right now
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:46 PM   #688
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I’m not sure it’s trump being smart so much as a lot of Americans being stupid.
True.

Everyone knew what Trump was back in 2016. It's not like anything was a surprise with him.

There seems to be the idea that there are millions of voters who were duped and would change their votes this time. I think the vast majority of the 2016 base was going to vote for him again and their minds were made up the first time they voted for him.

This election was more about luring more voters to saturate the result more.

We will see if that strategy worked in favour for the Democrats or not. Unfortunately, we might not know for a few days. That won't stop Trump from declaring victory though of course if he is leading at the end of the night.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:46 PM   #689
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Quote:
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Man it’s maddening taking to anyone who ‘isn’t for Trump’ but ‘can’t stand Biden’ or ‘couldn’t stand Clinton’. That is the perfect example of what the conversation is.

But those... emmmmmaiillls though!! And she’s a Pedophile in a pizzashop too didn’t you know?

Biden’s kid had a laptop or something though!
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:47 PM   #690
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Biden’s kid had a laptop or something though!
A blind guy told me he swears it was him!
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:47 PM   #691
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Which is better, the house or the senate?
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:47 PM   #692
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I’m not sure it’s trump being smart so much as a lot of Americans being stupid.
You should keep telling yourself that.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:47 PM   #693
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This is really feeling a whole lot like 2016.

And if it ends up that way, the Democratic party is going to go completely insane.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:48 PM   #694
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I’ve been using 538’s averages for comparison for polling error.

Arizona is probably out given the Latino performance so far. So Biden’s last path is Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Speaking of Michigan, I'm assuming the urban vote hasn't come in yet?

Trump is ahead by 18 points.

Corsi?
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:48 PM   #695
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Yeah. He is still effing stupid.

But congrats on the worst post in CP history. Someone needs to give you a cookie.
My point there was the guy understands retail politics and personal marketing in a way that is... smart. You still don't get that? Proving my point.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:49 PM   #696
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This is 2016. Trump is unbelievably going to win this.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:49 PM   #697
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Speaking of Michigan, I'm assuming the urban vote hasn't come in yet?

Trump is ahead by 18 points.

Corsi?
Same as Pennsylvania, probably not even worth worrying about until tomorrow because the mail-in vote doesn't get counted early.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:49 PM   #698
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Which is better, the house or the senate?
Both are important but the senate ultimately ‘trumps’ the house. A lot of great footwork is done in the house though and is where a lot of the prominent politicians have cut their teeth to start.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:50 PM   #699
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This is way closer than I thought.
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Old 11-03-2020, 07:50 PM   #700
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North Carolina:
Earlly vote: 53-47 or so for Biden
Today votes: 69-30 or so for trump.

Crazy spread.
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