I don't follow any of this very closely, but weren't the polls showing an obvious Clinton win in 2016? I'm surprised how confident people are of a Biden victory. Is everyone completely oblivious that 2020 is obviously the darkest of timelines?
Clinton had a 4% or so advantage in the popular vote going into the election. National polling error was about 2% and a few critical states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were 3-4% wrong. This is considered a normal polling error.
Biden is up 8-9 nationally and 4-5 in Pennsylvania and more in Wisconsin and Michigan. So Biden can withstand a similar polling error to the Clinton error and still win.
Secondly the source of the polling error was under sampling white voters without college degrees who voted significantly different from whites with college degrees. This error was corrected in 2018 elections.
That said 538 still gives Trump a 10% chance so even without suppression which is not taken into account he still has a reasonable but small chance of victory.
So I think trusting the polls is very reasonable but that doesn’t mean a certain Biden victory and a Trump Victory is in the range of errors that the polls predict.
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I live in California and while this state is locked up with the 55 electoral college votes for Biden, there are still a lot of swing states that are making people nervous.
Come on Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, etc. These will determine the winner. Change is needed for this country to succeed!
Halloween is over but what is orange, hollow and round needs to be rid of in early November!
#Biden2020 #letsgo!
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I live in California and while this state is locked up with the 55 electoral college votes for Biden, there are still a lot of swing states that are making people nervous.
Come on Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, etc. These will determine the winner. Change is needed for this country to succeed!
Halloween is over but what is orange, hollow and round needs to be rid of in early November!
#Biden2020 #letsgo!
Jess, this is what the world has come to, I am agreeing with an Oiler fan.
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Halloween is over but what is orange, hollow and round needs to be rid of in early November!
#Biden2020 #letsgo!
The Trumpkin Pumpkin on my deck. There are great plans for its fate tonight should the stars align.
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Pylon on the Edmonton Oilers:
"I am actually more excited for the Oilers game tomorrow than the Flames game. I am praying for multiple jersey tosses. The Oilers are my new favourite team for all the wrong reasons. I hate them so much I love them."
Can we have a silent poll seeing how CP would vote if we were in the states (not to mention some American posters are on this site). It seems to me after silently following the American politics thread that anyone who supports Trump is demonized on this site, so I'm curious if there are closet Trump supporters or if everyone actually would vote the same way.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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Deutsche Bank has about $340 million in loans outstanding to the Trump Organization, the president’s umbrella group that is currently overseen by his two sons, according to filings made by Trump to the U.S. Office of Government Ethics in July and a senior source within the bank. The three loans, which are against Trump properties and start coming due in two years, are current on payments and personally guaranteed by the president, according to two bank officials. In meetings in recent months, a Deutsche Bank management committee that oversees reputational and other risks for the lender in the Americas region has discussed ways in which it could rid the bank of these last vestiges of the relationship, two of the three bank officials said. The bank has over the years lent Trump more than $2 billion, one of the officials said.
One idea that has come up in the meetings: sell the loans in the secondary market, two of the bank officials said. But one of the officials said that idea has not gained traction, in part because it is not clear who would want to buy the loans and the attendant problems that come with it. While it was known that Deutsche Bank has been closely examining its relationship with Trump, including by setting up a working group in 2016 to review the bank’s relationship with him, its recent eagerness to end all ties and the contours of discussions in light of the election have not been previously reported.
Trump today: "we had rallies, there was love at those rallies, there has never been rallies like that... they can fact-check it, but there's never been rallies like we just had"
Biden: "it's not about blue states and red states, we're the United States, and we will work to bring the country together"
