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Old 11-02-2020, 10:29 PM   #8901
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Wrong thread sorry. I think Biden wins but he is a terribly weak candidate.
I agree hes kinda weak and there were better options. But he is probably the safest pick of the bunch. But, thats also what lost it for them last time they picked that way. Im just hoping America has seen enough but am also losing hope they have.

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Old 11-02-2020, 10:30 PM   #8902
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Hang on. Dinoc7, I’m just trying to understand your position. You think Biden will win?
90% chance of winning
100% chance of more votes
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:32 PM   #8903
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A little late to the conversation but I have an acquaintance on Facebook who went off the deep end in the qanon stuff. Lizard people, clones, aliens, trumps gonna save us, the whole nine yards. I find him fun to read. I don’t believe in any of it, but I do get a kick out of reading it.

However I have a friend who seems to be so left wing it’s tough to read. Does stuff like quits his job so he can find a higher paying one (in a recession) but doesn’t have one lined up then is all over Jason Kennedys Facebook page about how he’s been out of work for a year. Just want to slap him. You had a good job and quit! It’s your fault!

Funny how all that works. I keep them both around.
Aliens and clones, sure, but does he also believe the oilers are a good organization? That's the true nutcase detector.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:35 PM   #8904
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Dixville Notch NH results are in

Unanimous 5-0 for Biden

The landslide begins!
One thing that is actually interesting is last time there was a write in vote and a 3rd party vote along with two Trump votes and 4 for Hillary (who died?)

Incredibly small sample size but I don't see nearly as many people throwing away their votes with third parties and write ins because they don't like either candidate. That was a MASSIVE factor last time IMO
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:37 PM   #8905
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Aliens and clones, sure, but does he also believe the oilers are a good organization? That's the true nutcase detector.
I thanked this cause i laughed but we should probably give him a break on it in the off topics portion of the forum

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Old 11-02-2020, 10:38 PM   #8906
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if people are stupid enough keep debating it I will
I don't think its particularly stupid to urge caution against putting 100% faith into polls when they burned you so hard in 2016.

But hey, thanks for the passive-aggressive insult. Reminds me why I don't come into this thread very often.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:43 PM   #8907
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I don't think its particularly stupid to urge caution against putting 100% faith into polls when they burned you so hard in 2016.

But hey, thanks for the passive-aggressive insult. Reminds me why I don't come into this thread very often.
Polls were within their average margin of error last year. The Princeton guy saying 99.7% chance of victory forgetting that polls correlate was the problem. 538 had it around 75/25 on election day. Flip a coin, 2 land heads. If you were burned by polls last time that’s on the interpreter.

3% chance of Trump winning the popular vote with a fat tailed model that overstates unlikely events. It would take a 1980 sized polling error for that to occur.

That’s a lot different question then will Trump win the electoral college which would only take a 5% or so polling error which more than average is within the rea of possibility.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:43 PM   #8908
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I don't think its particularly stupid to urge caution against putting 100% faith into polls when they burned you so hard in 2016.
For the last freaking time, the polls did not fail anyone in 2016. They correctly predicated the national popular vote almost perfectly. They were within the margin of error in three key swing states: PA, MI, WI. Trump barely squeaked to victory in each of those three. Anyone who thinks the polls were wildly off in 2016 doesn't understand how polling works.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:45 PM   #8909
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I don't think its particularly stupid to urge caution against putting 100% faith into polls when they burned you so hard in 2016.

But hey, thanks for the passive-aggressive insult. Reminds me why I don't come into this thread very often.
I apologize but I don't think you are understanding what I am saying

Biden will get more votes, he will...its not a debate he will, probably 5-10M more


Trump has a slight chance of winning the election but will have less votes. I push back against this enthusiasm thing because Biden will be getting more votes tomorrow.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:49 PM   #8910
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For the last freaking time, the polls did not fail anyone in 2016. They correctly predicated the national popular vote almost perfectly. They were within the margin of error in three key swing states: PA, MI, WI. Trump barely squeaked to victory in each of those three. Anyone who thinks the polls were wildly off in 2016 doesn't understand how polling works.
I'm sure this is the last time this will need to be explained in this thread, and no helpful poster will come around on the next page to finger wag and tell us the polls were wrong last time you guys.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:49 PM   #8911
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Originally Posted by FunkMasterFlame View Post
I don't think its particularly stupid to urge caution against putting 100% faith into polls when they burned you so hard in 2016.

But hey, thanks for the passive-aggressive insult. Reminds me why I don't come into this thread very often.
Most of the polls in 2016 were within the margin of error. Certain media companies interpreted them as having no margin of error and put ridiculous graphics that had Clinton at 99% ect.

The biggest failing in polling from 2016 was an undersampling of non-college educated white voters. Pollsters now sample for demographics like education and build a model based on percentages of the population. Outside of the secret Trump voter or another previously undiscovered polling methodology error, there is little reason to disbelieve polls that show sizable margins with the corrected sampling system.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:50 PM   #8912
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Originally Posted by FunkMasterFlame View Post
I don't think its particularly stupid to urge caution against putting 100% faith into polls when they burned you so hard in 2016.

But hey, thanks for the passive-aggressive insult. Reminds me why I don't come into this thread very often.
It’s your fault not mine. Please vote.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:55 PM   #8913
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I apologize but I don't think you are understanding what I am saying

Biden will get more votes, he will...its not a debate he will, probably 5-10M more


Trump has a slight chance of winning the election but will have less votes. I push back against this enthusiasm thing because Biden will be getting more votes tomorrow.
Fair enough. I just think Trump supporters are enthusiastic, motivated and more numerous than they are being given credit for. I also believe he will get significantly more support from the Black and Hispanic communities than he did in 2016, which isn't being captured by traditional polling methods.

But hey, hopefully we only have to wait another day or two to finish this ridiculous election one way or the other. Right? Please?
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:55 PM   #8914
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Dixville Notch NH results are in

Unanimous 5-0 for Biden

The landslide begins!

Millsfield, NH voted 16-5 for Trump.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:57 PM   #8915
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Millsfield, NH voted 16-5 for Trump.
Which is a +1 vote gain for the Democrats. In 2016, they voted 16-4-1, with the 1 being a write-in for Bernie Sanders.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:59 PM   #8916
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For the last freaking time, the polls did not fail anyone in 2016. They correctly predicated the national popular vote almost perfectly. They were within the margin of error in three key swing states: PA, MI, WI. Trump barely squeaked to victory in each of those three. Anyone who thinks the polls were wildly off in 2016 doesn't understand how polling works.
I think the hard time I had around the polls was how a small margin of error difference in national polling could make a huge difference depending where the difference occurred. A small difference can have a huge difference on the electoral college.
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Old 11-02-2020, 10:59 PM   #8917
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Which is a +1 vote gain for the Democrats. In 2016, they voted 16-4-1, with the 1 being a write-in for Bernie Sanders.
So in both these early cities the write ins and third parties from last time went for Biden this time...I think we see a lot of that
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Old 11-02-2020, 11:00 PM   #8918
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Is there really any doubt that Biden will win the popular vote (and by a wider margin than Clinton did in 2016)? The question is the accuracy of polling in the swing states.
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Old 11-02-2020, 11:07 PM   #8919
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Interesting just watching Frontline. Did not realize that Biden had to drop out of the race in 1988 because of repeated cases of plagiarism and quoting without attributing sources and lying about his law school grades.
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Old 11-02-2020, 11:11 PM   #8920
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Trump ran as a socialist in 2000...people have short memories
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