11-02-2020, 08:59 AM
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#1
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
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2020 US Election Prediction Thread
Here's the place to post your predictions for the 2020 US Election. Please keep your predictions to a single post. You can edit your post any time you like before 4pm MT on Tuesday.
Other discussions about predictions are welcome in this thread, but try to keep general discussion related to the election here, or in a GDT if there is one.
The big question:
How many electoral votes will each candidate win (overall, not necessarily called on election night)
A couple tools you can use to calculate this are: 270towin.com and fivethirtyeight.com Note that the 538 one is a little odd because it's giving you average outcomes based on the states you select, so may give you actual vote numbers that are impossible.
Recent polls are here:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/
Bonus questions:
Which party controls the House?
which party wins each of these senate races:
Colorado
Michigan
Maine**
North Carolina
Arizona
Iowa
Alabama
South Carolina
Montana
Kansas
Georgia*
Goergia (special)*
*These elections will go to a runoff in January if no candidate has 50%.
**This election will go to an instant ranked-choice vote runoff later in the week if no candidate has 50%.
Extra Bonus Questions:
What will be the biggest surprise of election night?
When (day/hour) will the election winner first be declared by major news networks?
Feel free to make any other predictions that you want to make for the sake of posterity!
Last edited by octothorp; 11-02-2020 at 09:04 AM.
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11-02-2020, 09:02 AM
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#2
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Franchise Player
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As posted in the other thread, I took the RealClearPolitics polling average for each state, and assumed that it was off by 2% in Biden's favour.
The result was as follows.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...NM:0,NH:0,PA:0
Basically it all comes down to PA, predictably.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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11-02-2020, 09:11 AM
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#3
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THE Chuck Storm
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
As posted in the other thread, I took the RealClearPolitics polling average for each state, and assumed that it was off by 2% in Biden's favour.
The result was as follows.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...NM:0,NH:0,PA:0
Basically it all comes down to PA, predictably. |
You forgot Nevada?
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11-02-2020, 09:13 AM
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#4
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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What will be the biggest surprise of election night?
Lindsey Graham will lose senate seat in South Carolina.
Biden 306
Trump 232
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11-02-2020, 09:14 AM
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#6
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Norm!
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Some how all the predictions are wrong, the early voters are Trump supporters and he finds a way to win
Cities burn.
I think this is going to be closer then people think.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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11-02-2020, 09:17 AM
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#7
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THE Chuck Storm
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
Some how all the predictions are wrong, the early voters are Trump supporters and he finds a way to win
Cities burn.
I think this is going to be closer then people think.
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No matter who wins - I think cities will burn. Trump supporters can't fathom a Trump loss.
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11-02-2020, 09:17 AM
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#8
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Deep South
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I honestly think this is a landslide in Biden's favour. The polls will have an error, but it Biden's favour and it'll be a stomping. The democrats have gotten their side enthusiastic to vote and might have already won the election with all the early voting that has occurred.
Biden wins 400+ electoral votes.
__________________
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11-02-2020, 09:21 AM
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#9
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Scoring Winger
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Surprise of the night-Trump declares Martial Law and then is shot by his security detail. Pence takes over and says it was a Chinese plot to take over America. A quick exchange of nuclear weapons and thats a wrap.
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11-02-2020, 09:23 AM
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#10
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Now world wide!
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I'll make a delusional/optimistic prediction that Florida is declared for Biden on election night, allowing Biden to be declared president-elect before midnight.
However, Trump will not concede, will demand and sue for a recount in Florida immediately, and will point to Pennsylvania - which will remain too close to call for days - as an example of voter fraud and the Democrats trying to steal the election. Any other surprise states will also be held up as examples of the Democrats stealing the election.
The whole schmozzle goes to the courts in multiple states, with the Republicans litigating the results with the aim of pushing them up to the Supreme Court where they expect to win. The US experiences months of turmoil and - in contested states - civil unrest, before Biden is ultimately sworn in.
Trump subsequently dissolves into a puddle of orange pus, seeps into the sewers under Mar-a-Lago, and re-emerges as a Fox News personality, supplanting Tucker Carlson as the biggest cable news draw in the US. He uses the show to relentlessly attack Biden, and to campaign for his own reelection in 2024.
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11-02-2020, 09:24 AM
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#11
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 Posted the 6 millionth post! |
Some thoughts for voting that may impact election results, from former San Antonio Mayor and former Democrat Presidential candidate Julian Castro. I hope this prediction doesn't come true:
https://twitter.com/user/status/1321105120596119552
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11-02-2020, 09:33 AM
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#12
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Franchise Player
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Yeah, I predict Trump is leading for long enough on election day to get away with the fight against the mailed-in ballots.
If that happens, civil unrest will ensue. And the man in the Whitehouse will use that to his advantage.
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11-02-2020, 09:43 AM
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#13
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Franchise Player
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Trump 538
Biden 0
because Biden is evil! pure evil. and his son has laptops. 2 of them.
__________________
Peter12 "I'm no Trump fan but he is smarter than most if not everyone in this thread. ”
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11-02-2020, 09:48 AM
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#14
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Franchise Player
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Wholesomely terrified that this will drag on and on.
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11-02-2020, 09:51 AM
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#15
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by La Flames Fan
You forgot Nevada?
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RCP has Biden +3.6, so after the 2% adjustment it's still Biden.
__________________
"The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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11-02-2020, 09:54 AM
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#16
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: BELTLINE
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Quote:
Originally Posted by La Flames Fan
No matter who wins - I think cities will burn. Trump supporters can't fathom a Trump loss.
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Cities will only burn if Trump wins.
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11-02-2020, 09:58 AM
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#17
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Franchise Player
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Just like 4 years ago, that fact that it is even remotely close is mind boggling.
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11-02-2020, 09:59 AM
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#18
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chemgear
Just like 4 years ago, that fact that it is even remotely close is mind boggling.
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Biden's national lead of +7-8 in such a highly polarized environment is incredibly impressive given everything else.
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11-02-2020, 10:02 AM
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#19
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: Calgary
Exp: 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chemgear
Just like 4 years ago, that fact that it is even remotely close is mind boggling.
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Didnt the "Polls" say the same thing about Hillary winning a landslide and Trump still won. Dont believe the polls folks.
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11-02-2020, 10:04 AM
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#20
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Lifetime Suspension
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Biden will win by a fairly healthy margin. There are about four Biden or anti-Trump ads on TV for every 1 Trump ad in battleground states. It's obvious that powerful people want Trump out.
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