If you're an independent or undecided voter, surely, this is enough to get you in the tank for Trump. No evidence was substantiated against Trump or his family for alleged collusion with Russia despite the media parroting it as the undisputed truth for THREE YEARS. We now have an email with a MOUNTAIN of corroborating evidence that demonstrates that the whole Biden family was engaged in a pay-for-play operation with corrupt Ukrainian and Russian oligarchs.
The Trafalgar Group is predicting a Trump victory. They are getting flack from other pollsters like Nate Silver on their methodology but the Trafalgar Group also predicted a Trump victory in 2016 in the face of similar criticism. They use a different methodology that factors in a "Social Desirability Bias" which is essentially the belief that people lie to pollsters. I can see people not wanting to reveal that they are voting for Trump.
Anyway, I don't know enough about polling to comment but I thought it was an interesting perspective and different than the Biden landslide that most people are predicting:
Nate Silver gave Trump a 30% chance in 2016 and his data was well within the margin of error. He also nailed 2018
All those hillbillies in the south called Trump in 2016...are they great statisticians? They call the republican every time and are sometimes correct. Stories like this a good though so voters aren't complacent.
They predicted that Kemp would win Georgia by 12 points in 2018. After a furious voter suppression by Kemp as Secretary of State, he won by 1.4 percent. Trafalgar has virtually no credibility as a pollster.
The best part about their polls is that they do IVR polling (press 1 for Trump, press 2 for Biden) and not live calls. They somehow think that people would not be comfortable pressing 1, instead they press 2. They then readjust some of the 2's and turn them into 1's. Crazy stuff.
Another thing that I think they really miss on are the reliance on 'who do you think is going to win' or 'who do you think your neighbours will vote for' sorts of questions. If someone doesn't see why the average person may have very warped and incorrect answers to those questions with the current political climate in America, they haven't been paying attention.
The Fourth Turning is a well known book. You should read it.
Well he’s out by 20 years though. You had the 2000’s with 911 as the catalyst and WW1/Spanish Flu as the previous one.
You can shape a set of events at any points in time to fit astrology style narratives. Somehow this goes back in history forever because a lifespan is 80 years (even neglecting infant mortality life spans haven’t been an average of 80 years until recently)
It’s poppycock.
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It's really tough to one-up posting an RT piece as a source for your addle-minded opinions, but referring to a washed-up lunatic and disgraced plagiarist actually manages to thread that needle.
Kudos.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
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It's really tough to one-up posting an RT piece as a source for your addle-minded opinions, but referring to a washed-up lunatic and disgraced plagiarist actually manages to thread that needle.
Kudos.
The RT interview was with Zizek talking about millennial nihilism and disillusionment with modern politics. I thought it was a good interview, does it matter if he spoke on RT or Channel4? What difference does it make, they're his words, not some talking head?
No you numpty in one vital area he is massively better than Trump, you get to vote him out in 4 years time where as with Trump you get him as your King until he dies and leaves your sad deluded arse to Don Jr.
He might or might not be better or worse in other areas but none of them matter as right now you get to vote for democracy or the world's stupidest King, of course maybe you're used to Vlad running things so well but around here we like to have a real vote now and then
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No you numpty in one vital area he is massively better than Trump, you get to vote him out in 4 years time where as with Trump you get him as your King until he dies and leaves your sad deluded arse to Don Jr.
He might or might not be better or worse in other areas but none of them matter as right now you get to vote for democracy or the world's stupidest King
Oh please...this fear-mongering nonsense needs to stop.
nah, Biden is going to win...if the polls are "off" by 2016 levels he still wins and IMO the polls are being conservative (no pun) towards the dems because of 2016
Yeah but here's the thing...is Trump even going to prepare 2 speeches for that night?
No, he won't prepare one...and who cares? there is a lot of fear out there but Trump isn't going to steal ####. There will be enough votes cast on or before election day to seal it.
We are not seeing record turnout because Trump picked up another 10M voters
No, he won't prepare one...and who cares? there is a lot of fear out there but Trump isn't going to steal ####. There will be enough votes cast on or before election day to seal it.
After watching that, I'm more optimistic about the whole thing being resolved before Wednesday, but 60-40 is still pretty nerve-wracking.
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
He knows of Fauci's approval ratings among Americans and he knows going along with the "Fire Fauci" chants are bad for him. But he can't help but go along with it because he loves the cheering crowds. The man is so unfit.
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