Honestly, I'd be looking very, very closely at how latinx people are voting in Florida. It may very well decide the entire country's fate.
I have a vivid memory of watching a news report during the lead up to the Dubya election and they were asking a Latino (is it now Latinx?) who he was voting for. He said, "I'm a democrat but I'm voting Bush because I'm worried about terrorism." That's stuck with me as an example of someone who can bend because of a good marketing campaign.
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Last edited by FurnaceFace; 10-30-2020 at 03:55 PM.
I was reading today about the fact that Florida allows for early votes and mail in ballots delivered early to be sorted and counted. With the massive amounts of early votes and mail in ballots dropped off already, I suspect you will be able to call Florida pretty early on election night.
IF it goes to Biden, and right now it's about a 50/50 chance, but if it goes to Biden, the whole thing is pretty much over. Trump cannot lose Florida and still have a decent chance at the electoral college. He'd have to gain a major surprise victory elsewhere, as well as run all the current battleground states.
So again, it comes down to Florida. Sorry everyone.
I'll say that it seems like good news that there is very high voter turnout so far, as that usually means good things for democrats. However, the latinx population here is surprisingly wary about voting for liberals due to most of them escaping countries where communism or socialism has ruined things there (Cuba, Venezuela). On the other hand, they also hate dictators, so if they are able to recognize that Trump is more of a dictator than Biden could ever dream of being, then they might not be willing to vote for Trump. Toss in the mistreatment of immigrants and you might have just enough to swing the election for Biden.
Honestly, I'd be looking very, very closely at how latinx people are voting in Florida. It may very well decide the entire country's fate.
Yup. I mentioned earlier this week that this segment is probably who I'm most curious about and seeing how they end up voting on Nov 3. As you noted, many are extremely against socialism and Trump has done a good job convincing them that Biden will turn the US into a socialist government. NBC News had a segment on this group a week ago and many they interviewed were voting Trump.
It's always been about 30% of the Latino votes goes R. This time it could be more as I read somewhere there are more than a dozen Latinocandidates running for congress as R. So if they drive voter turnout, they could vote upticket for Trump.
And sadly, I've said this before, old immigrants #### on new immigrants. FYIGM. I believe that while Latinos may sympathize with illegal immigrants and favor a path to citizenship for those already here, large majorities agree with Trump’s policies regarding law and order at the border.
And as soon as they get here, they all #### on the Blacks.
For most of Trump's term, his racism was focused on Latinos, so Latinos were more likely to be opposed to him. But I think the focus on Black Lives this past few months will lead to more Latino opposition to Democrats.
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I have a vivid memory of watching a news report during the lead up to the Dubya election and they were asking a Latino (is it now Latinx?) who he was voting for. He said, "I'm a democrat but I'm voting Bush because I'm worried about terrorism." That's stuck with me as an example of someone who can bend because of a good marketing campaign.
Latinx is non-gendered so if you wanted to refer to either a group of gendered diverse people of Latin heritage or especially a single person who may not identify as either male or female, that's probably the way to cause least unintentional offense. But it's also a term not used regularly at this point. Latino is male, Latina is female. Similar with other close languages like Filipino and Filipina.
(You can probably avoid it, offense, the confusion and maybe weird looks by using Hispanic as well)
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It's always been about 30% of the Latino votes goes R. This time it could be more as I read somewhere there are more than a dozen Latinocandidates running for congress as R. So if they drive voter turnout, they could vote upticket for Trump.
And sadly, I've said this before, old immigrants #### on new immigrants. FYIGM. I believe that while Latinos may sympathize with illegal immigrants and favor a path to citizenship for those already here, large majorities agree with Trump’s policies regarding law and order at the border.
And as soon as they get here, they all #### on the Blacks.
For most of Trump's term, his racism was focused on Latinos, so Latinos were more likely to be opposed to him. But I think the focus on Black Lives this past few months will lead to more Latino opposition to Democrats.
It depends on where the additional Latino candidates are running. For example, Florida tends to have a large Latino population that supports Republican policies. They tend to be less religious than Latinos from mainland Latin America, and they also tend to come from the class of people who left Cuba because of communism. They like that Republicans were harder on the regime there. If the additional candidates are running in Florida, it might not make a huge difference.
As a side note, before anyone makes the assumption that "more religious" means more likely to support Republicans, that is typically only true with Protestant and Evangelical Christians. Historically, Catholics tend to vote between 50-70% in favour of Democrat politicians. White Catholics even more so, who tend to be more socially liberal and put an emphasis on the social contract aspect of the religion. The major labour movements in the U.S. were initiated mostly by Irish and Italian Catholics after all.
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Latinx is non-gendered so if you wanted to refer to either a group of gendered diverse people of Latin heritage or especially a single person who may not identify as either male or female, that's probably the way to cause least unintentional offense. But it's also a term not used regularly at this point. Latino is male, Latina is female. Similar with other close languages like Filipino and Filipina.
(You can probably avoid it, offense, the confusion and maybe weird looks by using Hispanic as well)
I knew of the Latino and Latina gender description, but never heard of Latinx before. I just assumed that Spanish was like French where the plural for mixed gender defaults to the masculine.
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How embarrassing for Glenn Greenwald, who just resigned from the intercept last night over journalistic integrity. He is among many (Taibbi, Enjeti) who got way too eager on this story despite every indication that it was nonsense. These guys pretend so hard that no one owns them, yet it is obvious through their treatment of this and obamagate that they are servants to their own egos and nothing more. It is hackery.
Holy ####. Don't tell Azure. He's been self-pleasuring himself to Greenwald's bull#### not understanding Greenwald's been compromised by the Russians. Stupid knows no bounds, like Trumpists don't known they've been leveraged to echo the points of stupidity. Dumb knows know bounds, except the dumb that supports the dumber.
I knew of the Latino and Latina gender description, but never heard of Latinx before. I just assumed that Spanish was like French where the plural for mixed gender defaults to the masculine.
It does, most Latinos don't use the term Latinx anyway.
I was reading today about the fact that Florida allows for early votes and mail in ballots delivered early to be sorted and counted. With the massive amounts of early votes and mail in ballots dropped off already, I suspect you will be able to call Florida pretty early on election night.
IF it goes to Biden, and right now it's about a 50/50 chance, but if it goes to Biden, the whole thing is pretty much over. Trump cannot lose Florida and still have a decent chance at the electoral college. He'd have to gain a major surprise victory elsewhere, as well as run all the current battleground states.
So again, it comes down to Florida. Sorry everyone.
I'll say that it seems like good news that there is very high voter turnout so far, as that usually means good things for democrats. However, the latinx population here is surprisingly wary about voting for liberals due to most of them escaping countries where communism or socialism has ruined things there (Cuba, Venezuela). On the other hand, they also hate dictators, so if they are able to recognize that Trump is more of a dictator than Biden could ever dream of being, then they might not be willing to vote for Trump. Toss in the mistreatment of immigrants and you might have just enough to swing the election for Biden.
Honestly, I'd be looking very, very closely at how latinx people are voting in Florida. It may very well decide the entire country's fate.
It would be a terrible irony if Trump won due to the 'immigrant vote' in Florida. (Yes I realize Latinos span multiple generations and are among many other immigrant groups over the last century, just phrasing it Trump terms)
I'm on a flight home and just kind of staring out the window and pondering things. It occurred to me while sitting here, in thinking about Trump as a symptom and "the next time", that COVID is a truly great example of what might have happened in a real nightmare scenario for a malevolent demagogue with some intellect and foresight.
Trump is stupid, short-sighted and narcissistic. His response to COVID followed suit. His immediate reaction was to deny it, because if people became panicked by it, the economy would be harmed and it would hurt his reelection chances. That myopic response has ultimately hurt his chances of re-election.#
Imagine, though, that he was a real evil genius - a "smarter Trump". The same cult-like figure with a cult-like following, but with actual talent. He could have, from the beginning, sounded the alarms as loudly as possible, and imposed measures on grounds of public health to both curtail the virus, but also implement the very immigration restrictions he wanted (some of this has been quietly done, but not to the extent he probably would like). Instead of downplaying the fears, play them up - this is a disaster, and emergency, the equivalent of a 9/11 every day, and so on... now here are the things I have to do to keep you safe. I need more power in the white house to do them, all related to security measures. Oh, you wanted to protest police violence? Sadly, we can't allow that, because COVID is such a deadly threat, and I've vested myself with the power to deploy troops to ensure that the nationwide curfews and public access restrictions I and my allies have implemented are obeyed by everyone. It's for your own safety. And worse, some of these warnings would have been borne out, and would have justified draconian lockdowns.
Then, he could blame China for the virus constantly. Trump of course did this too, but because it was so obvious and hamfisted (the "China virus" is a laughably transparent bit of hackery) and contradicted by his even more prevalent downplaying of the risk, it didn't land. But in the hands of someone competent, this could have been an opportunity to create a scapegoat that could credibly be sold as evil. "After all," smarter Trump could say, "look how they treat their citizens! Look what they do to minorities like the Ughyurs! Look at their punitive trade policies, that hurt you and your neighbour and the farmer who grows your food. They do all of these awful things, and now they're responsible for killing our citizens. What's more, they tried to downplay the risks and cover it up, while I told you the truth about the dangers they were exporting to our shores. They are the enemy, and I'll protect you from them. The democrats won't." Just imagine if it was someone like Tucker Carlson in the White House giving this message.
Now think about the democratic response to that strategy. It would be all "racism" all the time, combined with complaints about excessive lockdowns and fascist suppression of freedom to go out and get sick. They'd have been put in a position of defending China, and of criticizing the overreach of Trump in responding to COVID rather than arguing that he let Americans die. This election would not be close, in those circumstances. And then, imagine what the second term would look like, after this "smarter Trump" got an electoral mandate to impose something close to martial law on the basis of public safety. What would he do with that power?
The USA needs some serious democratic reforms to be implemented before this "smarter Trump" finds his way to the stage. This could have been much, much worse.
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Imagine, though, that he was a real evil genius - a "smarter Trump". The same cult-like figure with a cult-like following, but with actual talent. He could have, from the beginning, sounded the alarms as loudly as possible, and imposed measures on grounds of public health to both curtail the virus, but also implement the very immigration restrictions he wanted (some of this has been quietly done, but not to the extent he probably would like). Instead of downplaying the fears, play them up - this is a disaster, and emergency, the equivalent of a 9/11 every day, and so on... now here are the things I have to do to keep you safe. I need more power in the white house to do them, all related to security measures. Oh, you wanted to protest police violence? Sadly, we can't allow that, because COVID is such a deadly threat, and I've vested myself with the power to deploy troops to ensure that the nationwide curfews and public access restrictions I and my allies have implemented are obeyed by everyone. It's for your own safety. And worse, some of these warnings would have been borne out, and would have justified draconian lockdowns.
Then, he could blame China for the virus constantly. Trump of course did this too, but because it was so obvious and hamfisted (the "China virus" is a laughably transparent bit of hackery) and contradicted by his even more prevalent downplaying of the risk, it didn't land. But in the hands of someone competent, this could have been an opportunity to create a scapegoat that could credibly be sold as evil. "After all," smarter Trump could say, "look how they treat their citizens! Look what they do to minorities like the Ughyurs! Look at their punitive trade policies, that hurt you and your neighbour and the farmer who grows your food. They do all of these awful things, and now they're responsible for killing our citizens. What's more, they tried to downplay the risks and cover it up, while I told you the truth about the dangers they were exporting to our shores. They are the enemy, and I'll protect you from them. The democrats won't." Just imagine if it was someone like Tucker Carlson in the White House giving this message.
Now think about the democratic response to that strategy. It would be all "racism" all the time, combined with complaints about excessive lockdowns and fascist suppression of freedom to go out and get sick. They'd have been put in a position of defending China, and of criticizing the overreach of Trump in responding to COVID rather than arguing that he let Americans die. This election would not be close, in those circumstances. And then, imagine what the second term would look like, after this "smarter Trump" got an electoral mandate to impose something close to martial law on the basis of public safety. What would he do with that power?
In some ways, that's already happened on a much smaller scale previously.
The last major incident the US had was 9/11.
What came out of 9/11? Creation of the Department of Homeland Security and the USA PATRIOT Act. Americans gave up a ton of their freedoms to allow the country to spy on its own citizens, and it was sold under the guise of "protecting the American people".
