Even if we don't sign any other UFAs for league minimum (I think we do, but still), I'm sure we will see some PTOs being handed out with a chance to win a spot.
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I think optimistically he replaces Ryan for 1/3rd the price. I like Ryan, but he so needs to be moved for a pick to open cap space and room for Gawdin and Ruzicka. Don't even get me started on Ruzicka!
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I'm not sure Ruzicka is ready yet (think he can use more time in a top 6 role for the Farm team) but I do think that Gawdin and Phillips are both ready and it's a shame injuries/COVID prevented them from getting a look to end last year.
Gawdin is a bit older but he has put up the following NHLe over the last three seasons:
17/18: WHL - 46
18/19: AHL - 23
19/20: AHL - 35
And Phillips has been impressive too (his development curve before the NHL is almost identical to Gallagher).
17/18: WHL - 39
18/19: AHL - 28
19/20: AHL - 35
In both cases both guys took some time to adapt to the AHL and were playing in a smaller role in their first AHL season, but then showed exactly what you want to see by making a big step and progression in year two in the AHL with close to a PPG.
I hope the Flames can find a league minimum vet to add to the forward group but I hope both guys have a good camp and start with as part of the 13 out of camp.
Dube and Phillips showed some chemistry in Stockton. This could actually be a sneaky good bottom 6 with two home grown RH shots.
Dube - Bennett - Phillips
Lucic - Ryan - Gawdin
Lots of pretty goals in that Phillips highlight real.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 10-15-2020 at 04:45 PM.
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I'm firmly in the "Gawdin is already an NHLer" camp.
I love prospects as much as the next guy, but you're not already an NHLer until you are. Look at a guy like Nick Shore. Absolutely dominant in the minors, two way play seemed to make him a lock for any team, but just could not produce at this level, even with an opportunity to centre Gaudreau a few years back.
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Just a small gripe about your NHLe SuperMatt18. That WHL number is from his one over age season. NHLe imo is more dependable taken over a sample of a few years. He played 312 games and recorded 313 points, which is an NHLe of 25. If you did the same for his AHL it is 117 games 85 points and an NHLe of 29.
The fact that the season starts later makes me think we might see some surprises in camp from young players. For example, Jakob Pelletier will be almost 20 and possibly in game shape when the season starts
Just a small gripe about your NHLe SuperMatt18. That WHL number is from his one over age season. NHLe imo is more dependable taken over a sample of a few years. He played 312 games and recorded 313 points, which is an NHLe of 25. If you did the same for his AHL it is 117 games 85 points and an NHLe of 29.
It doesn't make much sense to average a player's numbers over multiple seasons when factoring NHLe, since young players are still developing and improving pretty dramatically from one year to the next. I tend to set my focus always on the most recent year.
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Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
Just a small gripe about your NHLe SuperMatt18. That WHL number is from his one over age season. NHLe imo is more dependable taken over a sample of a few years. He played 312 games and recorded 313 points, which is an NHLe of 25. If you did the same for his AHL it is 117 games 85 points and an NHLe of 29.
I was using it more to show season to season progression as they graduated from junior to pro - but fair point.
The fact that the season starts later makes me think we might see some surprises in camp from young players. For example, Jakob Pelletier will be almost 20 and possibly in game shape when the season starts
Good point.
Assuming Gawdin plays the fourth line right wing position and we keep Ryan, I wasn't sure who would play the fourth line left wing position. I was thinking of Phillips, but he is right handed. This doesn't necessarily disqualify Phillips because lots of wingers play the off side very successfully, but I wonder if the Flames just decide to make the fourth line left wing position a dog fight between some prospects and Rinaldo:
Pettersen, left handed, 903K;
Pelletier, left handed, 894 K;
Phillips, right handed, 733K; and
Rinaldo, left handed, 700K.
I personally would let Ruzicka continue to develop in the minors as a centre.
I think that could be an interesting storyline in camp, not least because I could easily see one of the above outplaying Lucic and eventually moving the big line down to the fourth line.
It doesn't make much sense to average a player's numbers over multiple seasons when factoring NHLe, since young players are still developing and improving pretty dramatically from one year to the next. I tend to set my focus always on the most recent year.
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And linemates change, pretty dramatically in junior.
It doesn't make much sense to average a player's numbers over multiple seasons when factoring NHLe, since young players are still developing and improving pretty dramatically from one year to the next. I tend to set my focus always on the most recent year.
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I don't know about using an overage junior year though. I imagine the mechanics of the NHLe calculation would change dramatically if you only based the calculation on that year for those few players. That was his 5th full year in junior.
It's quite encouraging that his production improved from year 1 to year 2 in the AHL. He will also turn 24 this season so it's time to make a mark in the NHL if it's going to happen for him. The door is wide open for him based on the current depth chart.
I don't know about using an overage junior year though. I imagine the mechanics of the NHLe calculation would change dramatically if you only based the calculation on that year for those few players. That was his 5th full year in junior...
I completely agree. Fortunately, Gawdin has played three years of AHL hockey since then which provide us with plenty of data that essentially replaces any relevant numbers from Juniour. SuperMatt's post showed how Gawdin has progressed from Juniour, but it is really only the last season (maybe two?) that concerns us with projecting him at the NHL level today.
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Originally Posted by woob
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I'm not sure Ruzicka is ready yet (think he can use more time in a top 6 role for the Farm team) but I do think that Gawdin and Phillips are both ready and it's a shame injuries/COVID prevented them from getting a look to end last year.
Gawdin is a bit older but he has put up the following NHLe over the last three seasons:
17/18: WHL - 46
18/19: AHL - 23
19/20: AHL - 35
And Phillips has been impressive too (his development curve before the NHL is almost identical to Gallagher).
17/18: WHL - 39
18/19: AHL - 28
19/20: AHL - 35
In both cases both guys took some time to adapt to the AHL and were playing in a smaller role in their first AHL season, but then showed exactly what you want to see by making a big step and progression in year two in the AHL with close to a PPG.
I hope the Flames can find a league minimum vet to add to the forward group but I hope both guys have a good camp and start with as part of the 13 out of camp.
Dube and Phillips showed some chemistry in Stockton. This could actually be a sneaky good bottom 6 with two home grown RH shots.
Dube - Bennett - Phillips
Lucic - Ryan - Gawdin
Lots of pretty goals in that Phillips highlight real.
I know this isn't a thread about Phillips but one thing I noticed with him as a smaller player in comparison to Johnny is that Phillips isn't afraid to get into the corners for puck retrieval and also has no problems driving to the net. And the obvious huge open ice hit which shows he knows how to utilize his lower centre of gravity, something guys like Kane, Point, Gallagher, Domi are also good at.
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I know this isn't a thread about Phillips but one thing I noticed with him as a smaller player in comparison to Johnny is that Phillips isn't afraid to get into the corners for puck retrieval and also has no problems driving to the net. And the obvious huge open ice hit which shows he knows how to utilize his lower centre of gravity, something guys like Kane, Point, Gallagher, Domi are also good at.
I think that Phillips has got the goods. He and Pelletier are the two players I think are most likely to crack the team in training camp.
I completely agree. Fortunately, Gawdin has played three years of AHL hockey since then which provide us with plenty of data that essentially replaces any relevant numbers from Juniour. SuperMatt's post showed how Gawdin has progressed from Juniour, but it is really only the last season (maybe two?) that concerns us with projecting him at the NHL level today.
Just two years of AHL hockey I believe. Less than two full season's worth of games.
I think that Phillips has got the goods. He and Pelletier are the two players I think are most likely to crack the team in training camp.
I would agree that Phillips has a serious shot at the main roster (4th line wing). He seems to be more of a game-breaker then Gawdin and not afraid to get dirty.
I think it will be a dog fight between Phillips and Gawdin for the RW and Rinaldo, Pelletier and a walk-in for the LW. I expect that Robinson has the 13th fwd position as he can (in theory) play up and down the lineup.
