American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

He's gonna need a VP

I feel like a Carlson/Ivanka Trump ticket would crush Biden/Harris, sadly.

[troutman]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Biden = 87% - up 7 points since October 1st.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...recast/senate/

Dems = 73% to win Senate majority, up 12 points since October 1st.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I feel like a Carlson/Ivanka Trump ticket would crush Biden/Harris, sadly.

The Rock/Jon Stewart accepts this challenge.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by troutman

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Biden = 87% - up 7 points since October 1st.

Worth noting: the way 538's model works, Biden's chances of victory will increase the closer we are to election day even if the polls remain unchanged. There's a purposeful amount of uncertainty built into the model to account for October surprises (aka Comey memos) that can derail an otherwise leading campaign late in the game. The closer we are to election day, the lower amount of uncertainty there is.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I feel like a Carlson/Ivanka Trump ticket would crush Biden/Harris, sadly.

Why? This race hasn’t been close at any point.

America is done with the Trumps.

This isn’t going to be a Wave election, it’s going to be a Father/Son Kamehameha.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by troutman

The Rock/Jon Stewart accepts this challenge.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I feel like a Carlson/Ivanka Trump ticket would crush Biden/Harris, sadly.

Of course you do lol

Biden is about to get the most votes in history fyi

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Of course you do lol

Biden is about to get the most votes in history fyi

I really hope so. But I won't relax till Trump is out of office and hopefully behind bars.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by troutman

The Rock/Jon Stewart accepts this challenge.

Jon Stewart has accomplished more while being out of the spotlight and I hope that never changes.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by troutman

The Rock/Jon Stewart accepts this challenge.

As fun as that would be, let's be serious for a moment.

If the Rock is running for President his VP would be either Kevin Hart or Mick Foley.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Of course you do lol

Biden is about to get the most votes in history fyi

He might have still won without, but you cannot discount the effect that COVID has had on the race. If the Democrats think this election is a sign that Americans are embracing Biden and their policies instead of the referendum on Trump that it is, they're in for a world of hurt in four years.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I doubt there is anyone of consequence who fails to recognize that this election is a referendum on Trump.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Worth noting: the way 538's model works, Biden's chances of victory will increase the closer we are to election day even if the polls remain unchanged. There's a purposeful amount of uncertainty built into the model to account for October surprises (aka Comey memos) that can derail an otherwise leading campaign late in the game. The closer we are to election day, the lower amount of uncertainty there is.

Very true. Something I've mentioned before is that their model gives this election more uncertainty than 2016 because of the number of huge news events going on (as measured by full-column NYT headlines). But I think that's a mistake, given that the polling so far has proved impervious to the news cycles, especially relative to 2016. It's hard to imagine a story or event (other than the death of a candidate) that would significantly swing the polls at this point.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Very true. Something I've mentioned before is that their model gives this election more uncertainty than 2016 because of the number of huge news events going on (as measured by full-column NYT headlines). But I think that's a mistake, given that the polling so far has proved impervious to the news cycles, especially relative to 2016. It's hard to imagine a story or event (other than the death of a candidate) that would significantly swing the polls at this point.

That is true. The irony of Trump desensitizing the electorate to news media allowing him to do whatever he wants, took away the very thing that got him elected in the first place... sensational news stories.

[JohnnyB]

I finally am feeling optimistic that the election will be such a landslide that the efforts to corrupt it and dispute results will be unsuccessful, but I agree that unless there are efforts to fix the underlying problems of the system, having control of all three branches of government will only be a temporary relief in the deterioration of the US. The fact that it may take an overwhelming and historic turnout just to prevent the outright collapse of the rule of law and democratic institutions is an indicator of the power imbalance between the electorate and private interests. The grip of private interests has been set up over decades and it's not letting go without some great effort being taken to shift the balance of power towards the electorate.

I so, so hope that we see the US shift hard towards strengthening democratic institutions with integrity. I'm skeptical of how it will play out though. If democrats can get hold of power, they're going to be facing a lot of big problems as soon as they get in, including the potential for another financial system disaster that will put them under all kinds of pressure to put integrity to the side for the sake of fixing a crisis. Still, I want to believe that this can be the turning point that sees liberal democracy and rule of law get back to good health.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by rubecube

He might have still won without, but you cannot discount the effect that COVID has had on the race. If the Democrats think this election is a sign that Americans are embracing Biden and their policies instead of the referendum on Trump that it is, they're in for a world of hurt in four years.

If you think the Democrats should go full-court progressive under Biden, that will be handing things back to the Republicans.

[Puppet Guy]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

As fun as that would be, let's be serious for a moment.

If the Rock is running for President his VP would be either Kevin Hart or Mick Foley.

So, Lance Storm as Canadian Ambassador to the US?

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by rubecube

He might have still won without, but you cannot discount the effect that COVID has had on the race. If the Democrats think this election is a sign that Americans are embracing Biden and their policies instead of the referendum on Trump that it is, they're in for a world of hurt in four years.

I really don't see it that way. Hard to say how Republicans will respond, but my guess would be that 4 years of a "normal" Biden presidency will likely force the GOP back to the center, or risk of really blowing up the party for good.

I get that Biden isn't your bag, politically, but I would guess that the majority of US voters would be quite content with both parties closer to the middle.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by troutman

If you think the Democrats should go full-court progressive under Biden, that will be handing things back to the Republicans.

Not remotely what I'm saying. They have 4 years to get the U.S. trending back in the right direction. That means better paying jobs, housing, health care, and infrastructure. Those obviously take more than 4 years to accomplish on a large scale, but there have to at least be incremental improvements that demonstrate the Democrats at least understand the issues and how to fix them.

[FlamesAddiction]

It's too bad that Al Franken was ruined by the sexual misconduct allegations. A Franken/Stewart ticket would be hilarious, but also have some actual political experience. You know, something that used to matter before Trump was elected.

Of course, it seems some conservative women don't mind being grabbed based on their support for Trump.