2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The teams that employ advanced stats people will be interested. Their fans might get angry depending on the return.

I'm not sure.

Ryan wasn't as good in 2019/2020 as he was in 2018/2019 (...just like the entire team). Given the cap situation league-wide, I think we would have to add a not insignificant sweetener to move Ryan (Ryan + 3rd rounder?), unless he's part of a bigger trade.

I wonder how the Flames will cut cap, and if Mang's arb date is the trigger point for that.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Remember, by signing with Calgary, he ate into one year of his ELC contract already, which brought him one year closer to his second contract. If he took the UFA route out of college, his ELC would have been 3 years. It arguably made him an extra $5M or so. It's what a number of US college players do.

UFA for college players gives the player the right to choose their destination, but it doesn't mean more money. Signing with the team that drafted you early does bring more money.

That's not the point. The point is that numerous posters on CP were convinced that he would never sign in Calgary and the Flames would lose him for nothing. The reasons they gave then were exactly the same as the reasons they give now that he will never re-sign in Calgary and the Flames will lose him for nothing. If they're right now, they should have been right then.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That's not the point. The point is that numerous posters on CP were convinced that he would never sign in Calgary and the Flames would lose him for nothing. The reasons they gave then were exactly the same as the reasons they give now that he will never re-sign in Calgary and the Flames will lose him for nothing. If they're right now, they should have been right then.

My point was that he had a financial incentive to sign in Calgary that was ultimately worth an extra $5M for him. He couldn't get that anywhere else.

As a UFA in two years, he will likely get, more or less, the same contract from a number of teams. Since finances will likely not be the deciding factor, he can look almost completely to where he wants to play. There were other considerations last time.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I'm not sure.

Ryan wasn't as good in 2019/2020 as he was in 2018/2019 (...just like the entire team). Given the cap situation league-wide, I think we would have to add a not insignificant sweetener to move Ryan (Ryan + 3rd rounder?), unless he's part of a bigger trade.

I wonder how the Flames will cut cap, and if Mang's arb date is the trigger point for that.

I was talking about Mangiapane, sorry for the confusion.

Ryan - I think there’s examples this year of such players being moved without a sweetener.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Are there even teams interested in trading much for him? He scored 17 goals last season which is notable but he's a small unheralded player that's probably not on the radar of many teams that probably have similar prospects on their own teams. I feel most teams would be much more interested in Dube.

I would say for sure there are.

Teams that are deep in data have to be targeting players that have all the underlying metrics that suggest they may pop.

The question is sample size and how much they'd pay. Pretty much what I said from the Calgary standpoint ... you have to get it right.

Honestly Mangiapane has been mentioned by commentators and media types in the last half of last season too. He's not under the radar at all.

[SuperMatt18]

Yeah teams like Carolina, Toronto, Boston, and Colorado are all really focused on advanced metrics and have invested a lot into those departments.

I think they would be all over a Mangiapane deal if he was being shopped.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by getoverit

take contracts out of equation and that he is an easterner, so that has to be appealing, biggest issue with Gaudreau is he has not evolved his game, totally predictable, doesnt have much of a shot, 5 hole is getting old on break aways, skating has not improved. only thing i have seen is Ward got him to back check. give away machine but he does handle the puck more then anyone. I just dont see him investing enough in his craft to truly be a marque player. he may help get you to the dance but after that everyone in the league knows how to play him. just cant get over not working on getting better and evolving ones game, for that reason alone we should maximize our return if we can now, not next year when it gets tougher to move due to contract conditions

I think Gaudreau's hype is now at a level greater than what his overall contribution actually is. If we could get another team to bite and give up a premium to get him, he should be traded.

While he still makes highlight reel plays, I was really disappointed at his lack of drive and tenacity last season. His givaways vs. takeaways ratio was abhorrent, while his shots taken and shooting percentage also dipped. But numbers aside, he didn't pass the eye-test on most nights. Yeah, he can still make you jump out of your seat at times, but I found myself face-palming more often.

Honestly, he is one of the last players I would want to see get a lucrative long term deal. I know that they are totally different players, but the next Gaudreau contract has the potential to be the next Lucic contract when it comes to overpaying for hype while ignoring the early warning signs of a depreciating asset.

I have a few theories for why Gaudreau is declining. There is the rumour that his commitment to fitness is lacking and that his family situation (father's health issues and serious GF in Philly) have distracted him. I also think he is losing his will to play through the hacking and slashing that he has to endure more than most. He dishes the puck away in situations where in the past he would hang on and out maneuver opponents. I can't say I blame him, but that was a huge part of his success before and without that aspect, he becomes a more ordinary player.

[Monahammer]

The Austin Watson trade for a 4th- way less effective player than Ryan. IMO we can definitely move Ryan without a sweetner.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The Austin Watson trade for a 4th- way less effective player than Ryan. IMO we can definitely move Ryan without a sweetner.

True. Though the salary is different too.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The Austin Watson trade for a 4th- way less effective player than Ryan. IMO we can definitely move Ryan without a sweetner.

Remember the other team has to have the cap space or internal cap space to take his full contract. Watson’s deal was for less money and done a week ago. A lot of teams are probably pretty close to their projected lineups by now. Granted I don’t know which teams have what for cap space left . For me this should have been done around the draft or just after. I don’t think it’s as easy now.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Was gonna say previously: Johnny’s ask is going to be Panarin’s pay. 7 figures.

Woohoo -- bring on the 8 x $1M extension!

[Bingo]

I think it's important that although it's a reach the Flames can basically make the case that they can get in under the cap at this point.

They don't have a loaded weapon pointed to their temples when it comes to moving salary.

I did a capfriendly this morning and with Mangiapane at $2.75M over two and Kylington getting a modest raise they can make it with 22 players, and the fill ins all making $700K.

I ended with about ten grand in space, which of course is less than ideal.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The Austin Watson trade for a 4th- way less effective player than Ryan. IMO we can definitely move Ryan without a sweetner.

Watson's cap hit is 1.5 million Ryan's cap hit is 3.3 million.

Not so sure about that. 3.3 million is substantial right now.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Watson's cap hit is 1.5 million Ryan's cap hit is 3.3 million.

Not so sure about that. 3.3 million is substantial right now.

Ryan plays a much more valuable position, averages double the points in Watson's best season, and only has this one upcoming season left.

I actually don't want to move him unless we have to, but I think there are potential takers out there without sweetner. Florida has some space and needs centres. Minnesota. Even Ottawa still.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Watson's cap hit is 1.5 million Ryan's cap hit is 3.3 million.

Not so sure about that. 3.3 million is substantial right now.

Yep the cap hits change everything.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Woohoo -- bring on the 8 x $1M extension!

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think it's important that although it's a reach the Flames can basically make the case that they can get in under the cap at this point.

They don't have a loaded weapon pointed to their temples when it comes to moving salary.

I did a capfriendly this morning and with Mangiapane at $2.75M over two and Kylington getting a modest raise they can make it with 22 players, and the fill ins all making $700K.

I ended with about ten grand in space, which of course is less than ideal.

They should be able to ice a full squad, but IMO making a deal is harder when you can't take on a penny of extra salary. Especially when the guy some people want to trade (Gaudreau) is on an extremely team friendly AAV at the moment.

[mikeecho]

Originally Posted by Saqe

It's not about who's more valuable at this point. Consensus is Gaudreau is leaving in two years, you have to trade him and not let him go for nothing.

Not specifically directed to you, but I’m curious about the underlined part. Every time I’ve heard this thought, it always seems to link back to Eric Francis who always authoritatively speculates that (insert player name) wants to leave Calgary to play in his home town. I don’t think I’ve really heard this rumor from any other credible insider, etc...

Also FYI... Tkachuk won’t re-sign in Calgary when he hits UFA. He wants to play in St. Louis. Francis has dropped this nugget many times already.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by mikeecho

Not specifically directed to you, but I’m curious about the underlined part. Every time I’ve heard this thought, it always seems to link back to Eric Francis who always authoritatively speculates that (insert player name) wants to leave Calgary to play in his home town. I don’t think I’ve really heard this rumor from any other credible insider, etc...

Also FYI... Tkachuk won’t re-sign in Calgary when he hits UFA. He wants to play in St. Louis. Francis has dropped this nugget many times already.

Yes, that is Francis's schtick as far back as I can remember. Always trying to drive the best talent out of town. I have a Sun cutout somewhere after I had wrote him in the 90's blasting him for his constant attacks on Fleury and he printed it. He is toxic to the organization and I have no idea why they talk to him let alone employ the guy. If Gaudreau goes he will be beating that Tkachuk wants out drum for all he is worth. If he goes it will be another star for the Flames. It is what he does.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by mikeecho

Not specifically directed to you, but I’m curious about the underlined part. Every time I’ve heard this thought, it always seems to link back to Eric Francis who always authoritatively speculates that (insert player name) wants to leave Calgary to play in his home town. I don’t think I’ve really heard this rumor from any other credible insider, etc...

Also FYI... Tkachuk won’t re-sign in Calgary when he hits UFA. He wants to play in St. Louis. Francis has dropped this nugget many times already.

Does Tkachuk eat his vegetables?