American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[activeStick]

I wonder if Trump has ads focused on the AAPI segment in the US? It's quite a large and growing voting group.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1314628165474627592

[Cali Panthers Fan]

How much do people hate Lindsey Graham?

To the tune of about $57 million.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10...gtype=Homepage

Jaime Harrison, the Democrat challenging Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, raised an astonishing $57 million in the third quarter of 2020, the highest quarterly fund-raising total for any Senate candidate in United States history.

Mr. Harrison did not so much break the record as shatter it: Before this year, the record was $38 million in a quarter, raised by former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas during his challenge to Senator Ted Cruz in 2018.

Mr. Harrison’s enormous fund-raising total, a majority of which came from out-of-state donors, speaks to the intense Democratic energy nationwide that has enabled him to run a competitive race in what would, in a normal year, have been a safe Republican state. President Trump won South Carolina by more than 14 percentage points in 2016, and Mr. Graham won his last race, in 2014, by more than 15 points.

It also speaks to Democratic voters’ specific anger at Mr. Graham, who has become one of Mr. Trump's most vocal defenders and, as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, is leading the charge to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court after saying previously that he would not support filling a vacancy in an election year.

And yet, the race is still a toss up or slightly favored for Graham.

Come on Jaime, you can do it. Let's send Graham home.

[direwolf]

The Taliban endorses Trump's campaign. Not a good look for the GOP.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taliban...raw-us-troops/

President Trump's reelection bid received a vote of support Friday from an entity most in his party would reject: the Taliban.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told CBS News in a phone interview, "We believe that Trump is going to win the upcoming election because he has proved himself a politician who accomplished all the major promises he had made to American people, although he might have missed some small things, but did accomplish the bigger promises, so it is possible that the U.S. people who experienced deceptions in the past will once again trust Trump for his decisive actions."

Another senior Taliban leader told CBS News, "We hope he will win the election and wind up U.S. military presence in Afghanistan."



Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh said Saturday that they "reject" the Taliban support. "The Taliban should know that the president will always protect American interests by any means necessary," Murtaugh said.

[activeStick]

It's always fun to imagine how Republicans would react if Obama said or did the things that Trump says/does, or in this case, if the Taliban supported Barack Hussein Obama for re-election.

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by direwolf

The Taliban endorses Trump's campaign. Not a good look for the GOP.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taliban...raw-us-troops/

Being supported by white supremacist groups didn't seem to hurt their brand.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Yamer

Being supported by white supremacist groups didn't seem to hurt their brand.

Bringing the world's extremists together. Definitely worthy of a Noble Peace award.

[JR449]

Originally Posted by activeStick

It's always fun to imagine how Republicans would react if Obama said or did the things that Trump says/does, or in this case, if the Taliban supported Barack Hussein Obama for re-election.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasd.../#3591402826ff

Excuse me? Where are the facts?

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by JR449

https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasd.../#3591402826ff

Excuse me? Where are the facts?

Oh boy, we got a live one here

[dino7c]

Its hilarious to watch some videos of Trump's presidential campaign in 2000...guy was a total socialist

Universal health care, harshly tax anyone with over 10M

[octothorp]

Just looking at the polling average on 538 today, which currently has Biden up 10.4 in the national average, which is not only the widest margin Biden has ever held, but also wider than any margin Clinton held.
However, the probability for Clinton was actually higher at this point. One of the reasons is that their new metric for the unpredictability of the news cycle (measure by full-column headlines in the NYT) finds this a more tumultuous time than previous election cycles.
However there's something that is, to me, problematic with this approach: the polling average has been incredibly stable despite the number of major news stories. In 2016, every major news story seemed to result in big swings, sometimes for Trump, sometimes for Clinton. This year, the polling average seems to be largely impervious to the news cycles, until last week when several massive negative stories for Trump resulted in what is so far a modest gain for Biden (but may continue to grow). And that's still not the sort of swings we were seeing in 2016. It's hard to imagine any news story that results in a huge pro-Trump swing at this point.

Another thing that's keeping Biden's odds down a bit are that the state-level races suggest a closer race than the national polls: Silver was saying on their podcast that the state level races suggest that the national race is actually somewhere closer to 8 rather than 10. Can't argue with that, since state-level is more critical to the actual election odds.

Iowa is continuing to look like a really solid shot at a senate flip for Democrats. Quinnipiac and Yougov both found Greenfield at +5 and +4, and she's led every recent poll (except for a tie from Hart Research, which was still a +5 move toward Greenfield since their previous). I expect Iowa is one of those states where down-ballot Republicans are freaking out a bit at the effect of the president's drag on their own popularity.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Just looking at the polling average on 538 today, which currently has Biden up 10.4 in the national average, which is not only the widest margin Biden has ever held, but also wider than any margin Clinton held.
However, the probability for Clinton was actually higher at this point. One of the reasons is that their new metric for the unpredictability of the news cycle (measure by full-column headlines in the NYT) finds this a more tumultuous time than previous election cycles.
However there's something that is, to me, problematic with this approach: the polling average has been incredibly stable despite the number of major news stories. In 2016, every major news story seemed to result in big swings, sometimes for Trump, sometimes for Clinton. This year, the polling average seems to be largely impervious to the news cycles, until last week when several massive negative stories for Trump resulted in what is so far a modest gain for Biden (but may continue to grow). And that's still not the sort of swings we were seeing in 2016. It's hard to imagine any news story that results in a huge pro-Trump swing at this point.

Another thing that's keeping Biden's odds down a bit are that the state-level races suggest a closer race than the national polls: Silver was saying on their podcast that the state level races suggest that the national race is actually somewhere closer to 8 rather than 10. Can't argue with that, since state-level is more critical to the actual election odds.

Iowa is continuing to look like a really solid shot at a senate flip for Democrats. Quinnipiac and Yougov both found Greenfield at +5 and +4, and she's led every recent poll (except for a tie from Hart Research, which was still a +5 move toward Greenfield since their previous). I expect Iowa is one of those states where down-ballot Republicans are freaking out a bit at the effect of the president's drag on their own popularity.

I believe Clinton's odds were so high because the models didn't think she could lose WI/PA/MI. I think that was a fair assessment, and Trump sweeping those states was a major upset.

It's hard to flip states that have been reliably one party or the other for so long. He wouldn't have won without those states, and he can't win this time without them. All 3 of those states have shifted hard back to blue, and it is comforting to know that Biden only needs to flip 3 historically blue states back to blue to seal the deal.

[afc wimbledon]

I think we tend to overstate Trump when we say 'swept', he snuck through with the barest sliver of an edge, he got every vote he was ever likely to get in those states where as Clinton had a large block of 'couldn't be bothered to turn out because she
s going to win anyway', my guess is if the polls had said it was a tight race and Trump was a slight favorite Clinton would have won.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think we tend to overstate Trump when we say 'swept', he snuck through with the barest sliver of an edge, he got every vote he was ever likely to get in those states where as Clinton had a large block of 'couldn't be bothered to turn out because she
s going to win anyway', my guess is if the polls had said it was a tight race and Trump was a slight favorite Clinton would have won.

I also don't see much third party support this time around...tons of people more Hillary than Trump voted for a third party so they could be smug

"Don't blame me I didn't vote for her"

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I think we tend to overstate Trump when we say 'swept', he snuck through with the barest sliver of an edge, he got every vote he was ever likely to get in those states where as Clinton had a large block of 'couldn't be bothered to turn out because she
s going to win anyway', my guess is if the polls had said it was a tight race and Trump was a slight favorite Clinton would have won.

Completely agree.

How fun is it going to be to brand Trump voters for life after this? It's basically a "remember when you got caught up in that MLM" moment...the shame and embarrassment will grow over time as they try to distance themselves from the whole ordeal.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

Completely agree.

How fun is it going to be to brand Trump voters for life after this? It's basically a "remember when you got caught up in that MLM" moment...the shame and embarrassment will grow over time as they try to distance themselves from the whole ordeal.

My brain agrees 100%

but my emotions remember 2016...I laughed at Trump supporters who actually thought he could win. How stupid they were and how they didn't understand politics. Biggest slice of humble pie ever.

Biden has a 3-0 lead but its still the first period and Lucic is heading to the box

[MoneyGuy]

You know your government is corrupt when the Taliban is endorsing them.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by dino7c

My brain agrees 100%

but my emotions remember 2016...I laughed at Trump supporters who actually thought he could win. How stupid they were and how they didn't understand politics. Biggest slice of humble pie ever.

Biden has a 3-0 lead but its still the first period and Lucic is heading to the box

I definitely see your point...the narrative changes the second he loses. One term presidents are remembered as "losers", his presidency has little chance of being remembered fondly as well.

Right now all those folks you laughed at are still in the winners circle, the second they aren't, they're never coming back.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Its hilarious to watch some videos of Trump's presidential campaign in 2000...guy was a total socialist

Universal health care, harshly tax anyone with over 10M

This why I can’t understand how anyone believed any of his BS when he ran. All those poor rust belt conservatives that thought he relates to them. It wasn’t that long ago Trump contemplated trying to get the Democrat nomination. He would have ran for any party that would have him.

[troutman]

News media endorsements in the 2020 United States presidential election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_m...ntial_election

[bob-loblaw]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

You know your government is corrupt when the Taliban is endorsing them.

I haven't seen the Lincoln Project do a Twitter video about this yet. Kind of surprised.