[Signing] Flames sign Chris Tanev (4 years, $4.5 million AAV)

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It should be though, building a team that is consistently competitive is the best way to win, not by trying to go “all in” for two seasons.

Tkachuk and Gaudreau both need new contracts in two years. Valimaki will need a new deal. They will need to replace Giordano.

Having $4.5M in Tanev could prevent them from keeping somebody, or from adding an actual high end core piece in that time.

This team needs to shed the habit of paying too much for non-impact pieces like the Brouwer and Stones of the world. Cap space is an asset and this team needs to stop acting like they need to spend to the cap ASAP once space is available.

It’s what Tampa has done a great job of. They didn’t go give overpayments to mid-tier aging UFAs.

They gave money to true top end pieces, or to guys they drafted and developed that were in their prime. Then they filled it out with low cost “character” guys like Maroon, Bogosian, etc

Paying a premium for “character” guys like Stone, Brouwer, Hamonic, and now Tanev is why this team stagnated. Too much cap or assets used for guys that aren’t impact players.

I really do hope that Tanev makes me eat my words but I’m not optimistic it’s going to happen. People told me that Hamonic would do the same thing and be never lived up to that hype either.

If this was the Chris Tanev of 3-4 years ago I’d be ecstatic, but I don’t think he’s that guy anymore and might not be above replacement level for much longer.

100% this post. I wish the Flames had an internal budget $10m less than the cap.

If we were actually close that $10m buffer would allow us to add pieces.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

And I think if the plan is to use Tanev on the first pairing for four years, it's a disastrous contract.

I liked Tanev in his prime but IMO he is so far past it at this point. He has played one full season in his career. He is signed until he's 34 and he might not be better than replacement level this season.

That one full season was this year. So, kind of irrelevant complaint.

And 'might not be better than replacement'? That is a terrible take, sorry.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Nope.

From a numbers perspective they both got their teeth kicked in during the playoffs, Tanev a good deal worse than Brodie did - but neither were good.

I don't care what the numbers say. I watched them both play and they were both really good in the playoffs. Their teams, however, spent a lot of time in their own end, so I imagine that didn't help the numbers.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

That one full season was this year. So, kind of irrelevant complaint.

.

What?? The guy has been the definition of injury prone his whole career. Injuries ARE the biggest concern with him.

[united]

This is a tough one for me.

I have been a huge Tanev booster for years now, including numerous times on this forum. I've been higher on him than most, recognizing that while he is a shut-down defender - one of the best - he didn't have a propensity to punt under pressure which set him apart from most. He is such an intelligent player, facing the Game's best year after year without being a defensive liability or a penalty liability. That he has flown somewhat under the radar while playing in a Canadian market is, to be honest, pretty baffling.

However, this is a guy with a ton of mileage on his body for his age due to the incredibly admirable way he plays. Tanev has never cheated the game - never seen a shot he wouldn't step in front of, never bailed on a puck retrieval regardless of who was bearing down on him ready to clatter him into the fourth row, never backed down from the largest net-crashing forwards. Then you add the intangibles of being loved by fellow players, every coach he's ever had raving about his coachability and professionalism, and dedication to off-ice training and lifestyle choices. How about leadership by example? The definition of it.

There isn't a team in the league who wouldn't want Chris Tanev on their roster...but at 4 x $4.5? That is a tough entry point given the mileage on his chassis and the signs his play is starting its decline. Believe me, I don't say that lightly as I've been a massive admirer of Tanev's for many years. I never imagined the Flames having a realistic chance to add Tanev to the roster and now they've done exactly that yet I'm not optimistic. This is a ballsy bet by Treliving and he better hope the decline was largely driven by Tanev's mentoring of Quinn Hughes. I sure hope he lives up to the contract and Flames fans get to see what a masterful defender he is, but, as much as it pains me to say, I don't see the probability of that happening as being particularly high.

This reeks of Treliving being held up waiting for the Brodie situation to play out while right-shot defenders started getting taken off the shelves, leaving the Flames with one right-shot defenceman on the roster and few viable options remaining. All leverage to Tanev's Team who did exactly what they should and maximized his compensation.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by dino7c

And people are absolutely ripping the Leafs on twitter for giving Brodie 5M and a NMC

k

Brodie only has a NMC the first year, rest is M-NMC like Tanev.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It’s what Tampa has done a great job of. They didn’t go give overpayments to mid-tier aging UFAs.

They gave money to true top end pieces, or to guys they drafted and developed that were in their prime. Then they filled it out with low cost “character” guys like Maroon, Bogosian, etc

When ya'll draft as well as Tampa you can do that. You don't, so this is how you take your shot. A season of glory is better than 5 of being okay.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Paying a premium for “character” guys like Stone, Brouwer, Hamonic, and now Tanev is why this team stagnated. Too much cap or assets used for guys that aren’t impact players.

Paying a premium for the wrong guys is the issue.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I really do hope that Tanev makes me eat my words but I’m not optimistic it’s going to happen. People told me that Hamonic would do the same thing and be never lived up to that hype either.

I could have (and did at the time) told you Hamonic was a bag of magic beans. I am also telling you now in six months you're going to eat your words and I absolutely hate it.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Grars on beating an over performing team whose beat players were a latvian kid who never played in the NHL again and 19 year old Bo Horvat.

What happened since then?

The Canucks being bad in 2015 is totally irrelevant. You said Brodie was the reason they never saw round 2. When in fact, they have seen round 2, and it was probably because of Brodie that they even made the playoffs after Giordano got hurt, let alone won a round.

[united]

For what it's worth, Evolving Hockey had Tanev at $3,575,000 on a four-year contract. In a season where most contracts are coming in under their projection. Yikes.

(Brodie at 4 x $5.4)

[868904]

Originally Posted by Saqe

What?? The guy has been the definition of injury prone his whole career. Injuries ARE the biggest concern with him.

And why is he always injured? Because he lays it all on the line. You know who else was always injured? Stephane Yelle.

I’ll take guys like Tanev and Yelle over “iron men” like Bouwmeester everyday.

[AC]

Originally Posted by united

For what it's worth, Evolving Hockey had Tanev at $3,575,000 on a four-year contract. In a season where most contracts are coming in under their projection. Yikes.

(Brodie at 4 x $5.4)

They had Brodie at 3 years x $4.9M.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1314701541991952389

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by 868904

And why is he always injured? Because he lays it all on the line. You know who else was always injured? Stephane Yelle.

I’ll take guys like Tanev and Yelle over “iron men” like Bouwmeester everyday.

Yes I would too except if they get injured and can't play.

[united]

Originally Posted by AC

They had Brodie at 3 years x $4.9M.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1314701541991952389

Correct. And $5.4 on a four-year contract.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Yes I would too except if they get injured and can't play.

It's not just about having the warrior on the ice, it's about leadership. It's about having the young players walk into the dressing room and seeing the veterans covered in ice bags and hobbling around.

It's clear to me, likely to Treliving, and to former players like Warrener that this team still does not understand what it takes to win. Everyone needs to be laying their body down and blocking shots in the playoffs. Even Gaudreau, even Monahan, even Tkachuk.

Gio will do it, but he's only one guy. Hamonic was suppose to be that guy, but he wasn't even there when the team needed him most.

The more warriors / leaders you have in your lineup, the more clear the message is to the rest of the team.

I know it is surprising to some that the Flames just let two of their penalty killers go, but honestly, how many times did you see Jankowski or Reider lay down and block a shot? I don't know if there is a forward on the roster who would do that.

That 4th line needs a make over and they need more guys like Tanev.

[dino7c]

Brodie missed more games than Tanev last season

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

Agreed, analytics have not found a good way to judge the value of defensive defensemen.

That's a bit like saying that science has not figured out how to determine the existence of God.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by 868904

It's not just about having the warrior on the ice, it's about leadership. It's about having the young players walk into the dressing room and seeing the veterans covered in ice bags and hobbling around.

It's clear to me, likely to Treliving, and to former players like Warrener that this team still does not understand what it takes to win. Everyone needs to be laying their body down and blocking shots in the playoffs. Even Gaudreau, even Monahan, even Tkachuk.

Gio will do it, but he's only one guy. Hamonic was suppose to be that guy, but he wasn't even there when the team needed him most.

The more warriors / leaders you have in your lineup, the more clear the message is to the rest of the team.

I know it is surprising to some that the Flames just let two of their penalty killers go, but honestly, how many times did you see Jankowski or Reider lay down and block a shot? I don't know if there is a forward on the roster who would do that.

That 4th line needs a make over and they need more guys like Tanev.

I agree with what you're saying. I'm just saying his value is zero if he can't play. The deal just smells like Treliving's patented risky ufa signing that has a chance to backfire big time.

[united]

Some data viz spam.

Hockey Viz AKA Micah McCurdy
This chart shows the teammate-isolated impact a player has on 5v5 offence and defence, where the more positive the offence number is the better, and the more negative the defence number is the better.

Look at the three-year defensive-zone trend. This is is why many are worried Tanev is already in decline.

Spoiler!

The Athletic AKA Dom Luszczyszyn

Dom's model is extremely bearish on Tanev, even relative to other analysts. This is somewhat surprising, unfortunately not in a good way. Dom has the probability of Tanev meeting or exceeding his contract in any year at sub-20 per cent.

Spoiler!

JFresh AKA Jack Fraser

Well done visuals demonstrating competency in various categories expressed in various ways.

Spoiler!

Evolving Hockey AKA Josh and Luke Younggren

These charts show Tanev over the most recent year (first) and three years (second), using a metric adjuster named RAPM that stands for "regularized adjusted plus-minus" ("RAPM"), and expressed in standard deviations. Analytically-inclined NBA fans will recognize the concept as it originated in that sphere, but basically RAPM is a method to isolate and regularize an individual player's impacts from factors such as: teammates, opponents, shift length, score, strength (even, PP, etc.), zone starts, arena, and travel.

Spoiler!

A3Z AKA CJ Turtoro and Corey Sznajder

This shows percentile of competency in each category using tracking data, i.e., "watch the game, nerd" data. (single season)

Spoiler!

SPORT LOGiQ

A few select categories tracked by the secretive company. (single season)

Spoiler!

Architecte Hockey AKA Bryce Chevallier

A fun site that shows proprietary metrics and ratings derived from a combination of advanced statistics and tracking data, in the format of the NHL series of video games. I haven't played the game since I was a teenager but I'm told it uses a bizarre rating system of 60 to 100. By the way, I would be remiss if I didn't shout out the GOAT of hockey video games: Eastside Hockey Manager. Also, a stylistic radar plot. (single season)

Spoiler!

[btimbit]

This is a really good upgrade on Hamonic at only $640k a year more. Although I wish it didn't include trade protection, I like this signing.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by btimbit

This is a really good upgrade on Hamonic at only $640k a year more. Although I wish it didn't include trade protection, I like this signing.

It's only a 10 team NTC, so it shouldn't be a hindrance if it comes to that. Also, it doesn't have a NMC in the first year, so he doesn't need to be protected in the expansion draft.