10-06-2020, 11:52 AM
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#5701
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Franchise Player
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Has Trump actually done any running the country type work in the last six months? Year?
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10-06-2020, 11:56 AM
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#5702
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by activeStick
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They must have a lot of confidence in their dirt tricks to steal the vote there, so why spend money?
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10-06-2020, 12:12 PM
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#5703
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Calgary - Centre West
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manhattanboy
Has Trump actually done any running the country type work in the last six months? Year?
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Mostly for the EPA, testing the air quality at his golf courses.
__________________
-James
GO FLAMES GO.
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10-06-2020, 12:13 PM
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#5704
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: not lurking
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I think it's also a case that some of those battles are better-left to other PACs, especially in states like Iowa and Ohio where Trump's brand is a descreasing asset. Let outside PACs attack Biden and rally conservatives around their pet issues, and use Trump in more targetted (cable and social media) ads to his supporters.
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10-06-2020, 12:14 PM
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#5705
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by activeStick
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Ohio is unlikely to be a tipping point state. If he wins Pennsylvania he will win Ohio just based on national Trends. So shoring up Ohio doesn’t necessarily make sense as if you are losing Ohio you don’t stand a chance at winning.
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10-06-2020, 12:23 PM
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#5706
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Winebar Kensington
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LeBron is getting out the vote in Ohio.
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10-06-2020, 12:29 PM
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#5707
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by activeStick
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There's some speculation that Parscale skimmed from the campaign. The rumours have a specific number of $40 million attached to it though. On top of that, Biden is also out-fundraising him in spectacular fashion so they need to spend their money more intelligently. It sounds like Biden has raised over $700 million in the last two months.
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10-06-2020, 12:54 PM
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#5708
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Referee
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Over the hill
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Quote:
Originally Posted by activeStick
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I suspect the Trump campaign is short of cash, and if so this makes some sense actually. If he loses these states (especially Ohio) he is sunk anyway, and there is no realistic scenario where he wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but loses Iowa and Ohio. It’s the same reason it doesn’t make sense for him to spend limited resources defending Texas or Georgia; by the time those states tip to Biden the election is already over anyway.
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10-06-2020, 01:17 PM
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#5709
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Franchise Player
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He's trying to conserve cash so he has some in the bank when he loses. Seriously, the states that gave him the shocking win last election (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) are all but lost. Here are ALL the battle ground states and latest polling from RCP and 270toWin.
Wisconsin - Biden +5.6, Biden +5.6
Florida - Biden +3.5, Biden +2.3
Pennsylvania - Biden +6.5, Biden +7.4
North Carolina - Biden +1.2, Biden +1.6
Michigan - Biden +5.8, Biden +6.8
Arizona - Biden +3.4, Biden +3.5
Minnesota - Biden +9.4, Biden +8.4
Ohio - Biden +1.2, Biden +0.6
Iowa - Biden +0.5, Trump +0.6
Maine - Biden +15.3, Biden +14.4
Virginia - Biden +11, Biden +9.5
Nevada - Biden +5.3, Biden +6.7
New Hampshire - Biden +8.4
Georgia - Biden +0.3, Biden +1.6
Texas - Trump +3.2, Trump +3.0
Colorado - Biden +10, Biden +10
New Mexico - Biden +14.5, Biden +14
Trump's firewall from a humiliating blowout is Texas and Georgia, and one of them has faded away as well.
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10-06-2020, 01:21 PM
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#5710
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Franchise Player
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How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
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10-06-2020, 01:24 PM
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#5711
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
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I read somewhere that in Wisconsin, because of gerrymandering, Democrats need to get roughly 65% of the popular vote just to win the state.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
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10-06-2020, 01:27 PM
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#5712
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: In my office, at the Ministry of Awesome!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
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I'm no expert, but gerrymandering and urban vs rural don't really matter in the Presidential election on the state level.
For the most part the states are winner take all (a few minor exceptions, Mass, or some stupid state like that breaks it up), but for the most part it's majority rules/gets all of the EC votes.
The urban/rural thing comes up a bit in the # of EC votes a state gets, but on a state level, all you really need to win is 1 more vote.
__________________
THE SHANTZ WILL RISE AGAIN.
 <-----Check the Badge bitches. You want some Awesome, you come to me!
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10-06-2020, 01:27 PM
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#5713
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
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No. Data collection models are designed to take these variables into consideration. Also, gerrymandering affects down ballot races, not the Presidential race. The thing that could hurt the most is voter suppression tactics, which the Trump administration and the GOP have been very transparent in their attempts. I know a lot of people are going to be looking at 2016 and claiming there will be a repeat, but the polling is way different and Biden has been extremely consistent in the trends. The only hope for Trump is voter suppression, otherwise this is a blowout.
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10-06-2020, 01:32 PM
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#5714
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I believe in the Jays.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Kitsilano
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
How many of those leads are large enough though? With Gerrymandering, and the urban vs rural vote, the Dems need a fairly sizable lead to win most states, no?
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Just quickly scanning Real Clear Politics polls of the key 2016 states, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
RCP polling averages:
Pennsylvania: 2016: Clinton +2.1 --- 2020: Biden +6.5
Wisconsin: 2016: Clinton +6.5 --- Biden +5.6
Michigan: 2016: Clinton +3.6 --- Biden + 5.8
I am by no means a polling expert but Biden is clearly showing stronger leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan than Hillary had. Wisconsin shows different. So definitely seems like the leads that Biden have could potentially disappear when the election actually happens.
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10-06-2020, 01:34 PM
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#5715
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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Trump just called off all COVID relief negotiations and the market tanked..
Will he make it to November 3rd?
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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10-06-2020, 01:41 PM
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#5716
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary
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__________________
The Quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all. Yet hope remains while the Company is true. Go Flames Go!
Pain heals. Chicks dig scars. Glory... lasts forever.
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10-06-2020, 01:41 PM
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#5717
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Trump knows he's gonna lose, so keep hurting the market so his buddies can cash in buying low in the meantime.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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10-06-2020, 02:09 PM
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#5718
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Not Taylor
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Calgary SW
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10-06-2020, 02:12 PM
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#5719
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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It does when you remember Trump bankrupted a casino.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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10-06-2020, 02:12 PM
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#5720
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Franchise Player
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So you are suggesting Trump got pumped full of medications and steroids and is now acting even more irrationally? Well I'm totally shocked.
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