American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[calgaryred]

Originally Posted by GGG

White women in Pennsylvania suburbs who are scared about Covid and we’re economically impacted by Covid are reassured that it is just the flu and blame democrats for over reacting and choose to vote for trump or nothing happens.



Either way chaos in the race gives Trump hope as things have been relatively static. Covid with fast recovery improves his election chances. How much we don’t know.

So what your saying is it reaffirms his base they are right and for everyone else who think hes an idiot continue to think hes an idiot, it doesnt change the polls.

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[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by GGG

White women in Pennsylvania suburbs who are scared about Covid and we’re economically impacted by Covid are reassured that it is just the flu and blame democrats for over reacting and choose to vote for trump or nothing happens.

Either way chaos in the race gives Trump hope as things have been relatively static. Covid with fast recovery improves his election chances. How much we don’t know.

But they aren't scared about COVID. They've been gone long before COVID. No doubt this is his Hail Mary play, but it's likelihood of being effective is still pretty low. Partially because he, of course, has zero credibility to anyone but the cult.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by calgaryred

So what your saying is it reaffirms his base they are right and for everyone else who think hes an idiot continue to think hes an idiot.

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I’m saying that the base is not a monolithic group and instead is a group that consists of people with varying levels of enthusiasm on going out to vote. Turning out the base is all that really matters. Take John Bolton who is voting for Raegan. Turn those into Trump votes and Trumps numbers improved.

We are talking about 2/100 people need be affected for it to make a meaningful difference.

The how serious is Covid and is Herd immunity the correct strategy is still being discussed around rational people and countries. So it’s not just kooks that will have their beliefs reaffirmed. It’s areas where the virus was controlled where the affects of the virus were less than the economic affects.

If Trump recovers quickly from Covid and can resume his campaign by the end of next week I would bet on a 2 point bump in Trumps poll numbers as a result of the its just the flu campaign.

[Wormius]

So is there any level of illness that would disqualify him from being elected to office again? Would death just mean Pence is the new candidate?

[scotty2hotty]

I'm betting he fakes his own death and Russian records show a D. Trumpovsky living in a Moscow suburb in 3 weeks.

[La Flames Fan]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1312057225440038913

[calgaryred]

Originally Posted by GGG

I’m saying that the base is not a monolithic group and instead is a group that consists of people with varying levels of enthusiasm on going out to vote. Turning out the base is all that really matters. Take John Bolton who is voting for Raegan. Turn those into Trump votes and Trumps numbers improved.



We are talking about 2/100 people need be affected for it to make a meaningful difference.



The how serious is Covid and is Herd immunity the correct strategy is still being discussed around rational people and countries. So it’s not just kooks that will have their beliefs reaffirmed. It’s areas where the virus was controlled where the affects of the virus were less than the economic affects.



If Trump recovers quickly from Covid and can resume his campaign by the end of next week I would bet on a 2 point bump in Trumps poll numbers as a result of the its just the flu campaign.

Or he recovers and it ppints out he has been a horrible leader on the virus and continues to shoot himself in the foot with his comments, which makes more sense. Biden came off more presidential in the debates and gave a sense of normalcy and unity. He didnt need to say anything more but his own campaign promises.Trump lost the debate cause he was what he was a idiot on stage and as always what he says. The guy cant keep on script if anything he has and always will #### it up. I see no change in this.

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[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by GGG

If Trump recovers quickly from Covid and can resume his campaign by the end of next week I would bet on a 2 point bump in Trumps poll numbers as a result of the its just the flu campaign.

But a MOE poll bump is not what he needs, he needs a 5 point bump and he won't get that from this. It's also very possible he might actually get a personal approval bump, but no movement in his election numbers. I think we all have a pretty low opinion of Americans and that they can fall for anything, but it's too hyper-polarized now to think this moves the needle significantly.

[GirlySports]

It's a hail mary that could hit though. Imagine you got laid off or lost a business and your life was turned upside down by the shutdown. We live in a reflectionist society (woulda coulda shouda) and those who have been hurt by being laid off, might, MIGHT, think back and say, I got let go for this? My life and family were turned upside down for this? It didn't even kill ####ing obese, fast food eating Trump.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Of course it could work, it is still America and in America anything can work politically. It just seems unlikely to work and is probably as likely or more to backfire because it will hammer home how badly he's botched this entire thing. But again it's insane we're here discussing faking illness to get a result. Grade school tactics sounds about right for this administration though.

[flylock shox]

As much as it's fair to doubt any reports coming from this White House, I don't see any benefit to Trump in announcing this diagnosis.



First, it runs counter to his entire "hoax" and "it'll disappear before you know it" narrative.



Second, a lot of people who believe that narrative do so because they don't live in a place that has been hard-hit by the virus, and don't know of anyone that has it. Now they do, making it much more accessible to them.



Third, Trump's initial announcement that he and his wife are quarantining runs counter to any "I told you so" narrative he might later try to spin if they experience only mild symptoms. Him taking it seriously doesn't mesh at all with his bravado about the virus, nor his rebel leader persona when it comes to Covid restrictions.



Fourth, the announcement impedes his ability to continue campaigning in the ways that are most effective for him: rallies. He simply wouldn't abandon those for 2 of the 4 weeks left until the election.



Fifth, the mere announcement that even the President - who is tested daily and surrounded by the Secret Service - can contract this virus, is going to deter older Trump voters from going to the polls where they'll be vulnerable to infection. They may not mail-in their ballots either, since that's apparently subject to fraud.


I'm sure there are other reasons, but basically - if it is a calculated manipulation by the White House - it's a gross miscalculation. And as much as the administration is a collection of dum-dums, one thing they're good at is tactics, and this doesn't play well tactically.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Biden, his wife and Harris have all tested negative.

[getbak]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1312065485400346625

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Welp, there goes the whole "Democrats gave it to Trump in an attempt to destroy him" narrative.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But a MOE poll bump is not what he needs, he needs a 5 point bump and he won't get that from this. It's also very possible he might actually get a personal approval bump, but no movement in his election numbers. I think we all have a pretty low opinion of Americans and that they can fall for anything, but it's too hyper-polarized now to think this moves the needle significantly.

A two point pump plus a two point polling error and he is about 50/50 to win.

[GirlySports]

GGG is right. regardless of what Trump says or that he got COVID now, there have been debates on the validity of the shutdowns. We have these debates all over Canada as well. The 40 million Americans who lost their jobs and the businesses that closes, do they feel it was legit? There are only small percentages of people dying, and maybe even not in their area. Sure US has 200,000 deaths but maybe there were none in your town.


These will be the voters who decide the election. I think Trump not getting seriously sick, pushes these people his way.

[Robo]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

GGG is right. regardless of what Trump says or that he got COVID now, there have been debates on the validity of the shutdowns. We have these debates all over Canada as well. The 40 million Americans who lost their jobs and the businesses that closes, do they feel it was legit? There are only small percentages of people dying, and maybe even not in their area. Sure US has 200,000 deaths but maybe there were none in your town.


These will be the voters who decide the election. I think Trump not getting seriously sick, pushes these people his way.

Trump basically left all these small business owners to fend for themselves while bailing out big profit corporations hopefully they realize that but they probably won't

[troutman]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

As much as it's fair to doubt any reports coming from this White House, I don't see any benefit to Trump in announcing this diagnosis.



First, it runs counter to his entire "hoax" and "it'll disappear before you know it" narrative.



Second, a lot of people who believe that narrative do so because they don't live in a place that has been hard-hit by the virus, and don't know of anyone that has it. Now they do, making it much more accessible to them.



Third, Trump's initial announcement that he and his wife are quarantining runs counter to any "I told you so" narrative he might later try to spin if they experience only mild symptoms. Him taking it seriously doesn't mesh at all with his bravado about the virus, nor his rebel leader persona when it comes to Covid restrictions.



Fourth, the announcement impedes his ability to continue campaigning in the ways that are most effective for him: rallies. He simply wouldn't abandon those for 2 of the 4 weeks left until the election.



Fifth, the mere announcement that even the President - who is tested daily and surrounded by the Secret Service - can contract this virus, is going to deter older Trump voters from going to the polls where they'll be vulnerable to infection. They may not mail-in their ballots either, since that's apparently subject to fraud.


I'm sure there are other reasons, but basically - if it is a calculated manipulation by the White House - it's a gross miscalculation. And as much as the administration is a collection of dum-dums, one thing they're good at is tactics, and this doesn't play well tactically.

Sixth, millions have already voted.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Robo

Trump basically left all these small business owners to fend for themselves while bailing out big profit corporations hopefully they realize that but they probably won't

They probably don't. Small business want to be big business, the same as poor people want to be rich people. The myth of the American Dream.

[FlameOn]

RNC Chairwomen Ronna McDaniel tests positive for Rona

https://www.axios.com/rnc-chair-ronn...eadba50d9.html