2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Toonage

To me? No. To Treliving? As part of a larger deal (or catalyst for other deals), probably.

Look at his track record. If he feels the deal is worth it, that 1st will be gone.

He has yet to trade a 1st for a 30+ player so I am not convinced he will do it here especially with several other options available

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I'll be so bold as to say almost any UFA goalie and the Flames keeping their 1st and using it is better than trading it for Kuemper.

Thats right, the Holtby's and Crawfords included.

At any rate, my POV is the Flames should not and can not trade their 1st this year. Thats it, that's all.

Trading 1st and 2nd round picks while being a pretty average team is such a Calgary Flames thing to do though!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Not sure how I'm contradicting myself here (not saying I'm not, I can be dense). But the 1st gives you that cost certainty for the 2 years left on his deal.

If you sign for Markstrom for say, $5.5M which was tossed out here, you have Kuemper for a million less for 2 years which allows you to possibly make other moves, afford other options. After that time, if you extend Kuemper at $5.5 for another 3 years you find yourself in the same spot as i you signed Markstrom but you used that additional salary in the first 2 years to make other moves.

That being said, Markstrom as a UFA could fetch more than $5.5 which makes Kuemper's 2 years at $4.5 potentially an even better deal.

Again, saving $1M per year for 2 years isn't worth anything close to a mid 1st

[AC]

But saving $1M on a goalie is not worth giving away our 1st. I'd rather us spend an extra $2M on Markstrom than trade our 1st.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

2 years isn’t long enough for me. Then what Kuemper at 32 getting 4-6 years at a huge raise? New goalie again?

Personally I hope Wolf is the real deal but he is likely not going to be started ready until he is 24-25. I prefer the Flames give Markstrom a 5-6 year deal where the last couple years are hopefully transitioning to Wolf taking over and the salaries never intersect where both need to be paid starter money.

And goalies are so volatile as it is.

Carey Price was the best goalie in the world at 30 and coming off a.933, .934, .923 save percentages over the previous three seasons.

Next three seasons have been .900, .918, .909

Sergei Bobrovski was 31 and coming off seasons of .931, .921, and .913 save percentages, he moves to Florida and puts up a .900 save percentage.

Kuemper was a backup that had .905. .915, .902, .920 seasons. Then he turns 28 and puts up .925 and .928 seasons.

Honestly you never know what your're going to get over two seasons from a goalie, they are so volatile year to year. Giving up a first for only two seasons of a 30 year goalie is foolish because really odds are one of those two years is likely to be below average.

Originally Posted by AC

But saving $1M on a goalie is not worth giving away our 1st. I'd rather us spend an extra $2M on Markstrom than trade our 1st.

Especially because it's only two seasons.

Say you can sign Markstrom for 5 years at $5.5M now or Trade 1st for Kuemper at 2 x $4.5M and then if everything goes well and he plays good you have to extend him at 3 years and $6.5M at the age of 33.

You're saving $1M for the next two seasons, only to then pay $1M more the the next three seasons. And giving up a 1st for that slight benefit.

[Enoch Root]

If the Flames traded Monahan for Dumba, I would be livid. Like, cancel-my-tickets, pissed.

Meanwhile, Minny has no leverage with Dumba because of the expansion draft. Yet they take that position? Sounds a lot like negotiation posturing to me.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If the Flames traded Monahan for Dumba, I would be livid. Like, cancel-my-tickets, pissed.

Meanwhile, Minny has no leverage with Dumba because of the expansion draft. Yet that take that position? Sounds a lot like negotiation posturing to me.

Bad negotiation posturing because it makes it look like they are being spiteful to the player they are trying to trade.

It's also transparent- if they really believe that Dumba is better than Monahan then they are going to ride him into expansion draft because no one is going to offer anything close.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by AC

But saving $1M on a goalie is not worth giving away our 1st. I'd rather us spend an extra $2M on Markstrom than trade our 1st.

If Ryan is involved in the deal it's not just saving $1 million though, it could be saving 1-2m on Markstrom and saving 2m by replacing Ryan with someone cheaper.

Not only that, what if Markstrom doesn't choose us? People seem to be ignoring that factor, it's not Kumper vs Markstrom, it's definitely getting Kuemper vs maybe getting Markstrom and if we don't trade for Kuemper and then miss out on Markstrom, then what? Call Talbot with our tails between our legs and hope he hasn't signed elsewhere? Not trading for Kuemper and missing out on Markstrom could potentially leave us with worse goaltending than we had this season.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Trading 1st and 2nd round picks while being a pretty average team is such a Calgary Flames thing to do though!

Having said that the only time the Flames have moved their 1st was after a season that was considered a step forward

2015- Surprise run to second round lead by a rookie and sophomore forward. Used the pick on acquiring a 22 year old RFA

2017- coming off a playoff appearance that was not smoke and mirrors and likely feeling like Smith being a big upgrade over Elliott Treliving got tunnel vision on Hamonic and his sub $4M cap hit for 3 years and felt acquiring him would give the team a truly elite top 4. Outside of poor coaching hires this was easily the worst move Treliving has made.

2018- after a massively underwhelming year a coach change and huge trade occurred. He also spent in Free agency with Ryan and Neal while adding 2 core RFA’s for Hamilton (the first of our young core that needs an extension) Ferland (pending UFA) and Fox (prospect that wouldn’t sign).

2019- due to significant RFA deals this team was pushed against the cap. No points for the failed trade for Kadri but to make it all fit the team was largely left unchanged. While the playoffs were a huge disappointment the team had their best regular season in 30 years. Doubling down on the roster made sense and they shuffled the useless Neal for the grossly overpaid enforcer Lucic

2020- the team returned to the playoffs and fell flat again. This team got their second chance and failed. Big moves are coming and I am not sure they will sacrifice futures to make those changes. Core players are going to move

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I'll be so bold as to say almost any UFA goalie and the Flames keeping their 1st and using it is better than trading it for Kuemper.

Thats right, the Holtby's and Crawfords included.

At any rate, my POV is the Flames should not and can not trade their 1st this year. Thats it, that's all.

Would you, could you, trade the 1st?

I would not could not trade the 1st
This idea is the worst!

I would not trade it for Darcy Kuemper
I would not trade it for the rights to Lehner
I would not trade it for Matt Murray
I would not trade it for MA Fleury
I would not trade it for OEL
or to the Oilers (they can burn in hell)
I would rather sign Hall or Holtby
Pietrangelo or TJ Brodie
I would not trade it for Gostisbehere
I would not trade it, is that fair?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Would you, could you, trade the 1st?

I would not could not trade the 1st
This idea is the worst!

I would not trade it for Darcy Kuemper
I would not trade it for the rights to Lehner
I would not trade it for Matt Murray
I would not trade it for MA Fleury
I would not trade it for OEL
or to the Oilers (they can burn in hell)
I would rather sign Hall or Holtby
Pietrangelo or TJ Brodie
I would not trade it for Gostisbehere
I would not trade it, is that fair?

Would you trade it for Hall's rights + Kuemper if it was the only way to assure Hall signed here/sign and trade?

That's the one sticking point for me with Arizona. If we're talking about Hall + Kuemper, I'd do it. Kuemper alone? I don't really want to see it play out that way.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Would you trade it for Hall's rights + Kuemper if it was the only way to assure Hall signed here/sign and trade?

That's the one sticking point for me with Arizona. If we're talking about Hall + Kuemper, I'd do it. Kuemper alone? I don't really want to see it play out that way.

Why are you making this assumption?

If Hall is interested in signing here, he is interested in signing here. Making a bad trade, based on that assumption, makes no sense.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Why are you making this assumption?

If Hall is interested in signing here, he is interested in signing here. Making a bad trade, based on that assumption, makes no sense.

Note the "if", and perhaps saying if it's the only to assure he would sign here going into free agency should have been what I said - as it would then allow us to act differently at the draft (as in, trading Gaudreau etc.)

Acquiring Kuemper + Hall for a 1st, and then addings picks and prospects from trading Gaudreau at the draft would be some wise asset management.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Would you, could you, trade the 1st?

I would not could not trade the 1st
This idea is the worst!

I would not trade it for Darcy Kuemper
I would not trade it for the rights to Lehner
I would not trade it for Matt Murray
I would not trade it for MA Fleury
I would not trade it for OEL
or to the Oilers (they can burn in hell)
I would rather sign Hall or Holtby
Pietrangelo or TJ Brodie
I would not trade it for Gostisbehere
I would not trade it, is that fair?

I mean, they shouldn't but say they trade their 1st for Barzal then yeah, get Barzal, thats literally the answer to all the Flames woes at the forward position. Anything below that type of quality and box ticking trade, no, no amount of Dr.Seussing could allow me to be happy about trading their 1st.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

Not only that, what if Markstrom doesn't choose us? People seem to be ignoring that factor, it's not Kumper vs Markstrom, it's definitely getting Kuemper vs maybe getting Markstrom and if we don't trade for Kuemper and then miss out on Markstrom, then what? Call Talbot with our tails between our legs and hope he hasn't signed elsewhere? Not trading for Kuemper and missing out on Markstrom could potentially leave us with worse goaltending than we had this season.

Is that really the end of the world to not overpay for one of the goalies on the free agent / trade market?

Here are three goalies over the last three seasons at 5v5 (generally best indicator of goalie performance).

Goalie A:

GP: 113
SV%: .929

HDSV%: .839
MDSV%: .921
LDSV%: .975

Goalie B:

GP: 163
SV PCT: .923

HDSV%: .835
MDSV%: .923
LDSV%: .968

Player C:

GP: 114
SV PCT: .920

HDSV%: .834
MDSV%: .918
LDSV%: .962

Player A is Kuemper, B is Markstrom, C is Rittich.

Kuemper is the best but he's only really played the starters share for 1 season, is 30 years old, and IMO it's not clear he's actually worth the 1st? People also seem fine with Markstrom but really his save percentage splits aren't' considerably different to Rittich, but at least he has long term history of being a starter. Rittich is the youngest of the three, two years younger than both Markstrom and Kuemper. If you compare seasons at the same age then Rittich actually has very similar save pct splits to what Kuemper & Markstrom had from age 26-28.

I know a lot of people here seemed to have lost a lot of faith in Rittich based on the end of the season and his poor single period of play in the playoffs (first real game in 6 months) but maybe they should actually give him a real shot. At the same age Minnesota had given up on Kuemper and he signed a 1 year, $700k contract with L.A which really turned his career around. Goalies are hard to predict.

(Here are Kuemper and Markstrom's numbers for 26-28 if you're curious)

Spoiler!

Kuemper: 2015-2018

GP: 68
SVPCT: .922

HDSV: .839
MDSV: .922
LDSV: .961

Markstrom: 2015-2018

GP: 118
SV%: .921

HDSV: .838
MDSV: .923
LDSV: .965

Plus look at cup winners since 2011, and tell me what every single goalie on these cup teams has in common.

Boston: Thomas (Rask x 2 in the finals but losing)
LA x 2: Quick
Chicago x 2: Crawford
Pittsburgh x 2: Fleury/Murray
Washington - Holtby
St.Louis - Binnington
Tampa - Vasy

Every single one of these goalies was drafted and developed by the team that they ended up winning with, and all of them except Thomas won the cup before turning 30.

Maybe trading for or signing for goalies on the wrong side of 30 isn't the right move since appears to be tough to win with older goalies that you didn't draft/develop yourself.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Having said that the only time the Flames have moved their 1st was after a season that was considered a step forward

2015- Surprise run to second round lead by a rookie and sophomore forward. Used the pick on acquiring a 22 year old RFA

2017- coming off a playoff appearance that was not smoke and mirrors and likely feeling like Smith being a big upgrade over Elliott Treliving got tunnel vision on Hamonic and his sub $4M cap hit for 3 years and felt acquiring him would give the team a truly elite top 4. Outside of poor coaching hires this was easily the worst move Treliving has made.

2018- after a massively underwhelming year a coach change and huge trade occurred. He also spent in Free agency with Ryan and Neal while adding 2 core RFA’s for Hamilton (the first of our young core that needs an extension) Ferland (pending UFA) and Fox (prospect that wouldn’t sign).

2019- due to significant RFA deals this team was pushed against the cap. No points for the failed trade for Kadri but to make it all fit the team was largely left unchanged. While the playoffs were a huge disappointment the team had their best regular season in 30 years. Doubling down on the roster made sense and they shuffled the useless Neal for the grossly overpaid enforcer Lucic

2020- the team returned to the playoffs and fell flat again. This team got their second chance and failed. Big moves are coming and I am not sure they will sacrifice futures to make those changes. Core players are going to move

This is pretty accurate - the one defence of the Hamonic trade I would make is that Treliving reasonably thought it would be a much later first than it turned out to be. And a player like Hamonic was expected to be was a real need.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by AC

But saving $1M on a goalie is not worth giving away our 1st. I'd rather us spend an extra $2M on Markstrom than trade our 1st.

I thought this was obvious, but this doesn't take the number of years into account though.

Kuemper has two years. Markstrom could have 5 or 6.

$2 mill for an extra 4 years is 8 mill. And that's worth a first. Especially with a flat cap. It might even be worth two firsts. Markstrom would also be very likely to regress throughout the contract.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

This is pretty accurate - the one defence of the Hamonic trade I would make is that Treliving reasonably thought it would be a much later first than it turned out to be. And a player like Hamonic was expected to be was a real need.

That is true and one of the reasons I didn’t hate it at the time. I also was under the assumption from reading about Hamonic that he was a top pairing shutdown Dman that had fairly decent mobility and was very physical.

He was not the player advertised and the team wasn’t as good as Treliving thought.

I weirdly feel more comfortable with Treliving shaking the team up than trying to add to the group.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

This is pretty accurate - the one defence of the Hamonic trade I would make is that Treliving reasonably thought it would be a much later first than it turned out to be. And a player like Hamonic was expected to be was a real need.

You would think a player that gets traded for a 1st and two 2nd round picks would be of high pedigree but it's telling that he doesn't crack the top 10 of any 2020 UFA ranking lists I've seen. IMO there's no defending of the trade as the day it was made it appeared to be an overpayment and today it looks even worse than we thought given his mediocre play over his Flames tenure.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I thought this was obvious, but this doesn't take the number of years into account though.

Kuemper has two years. Markstrom could have 5 or 6.

$2 mill for an extra 4 years is 8 mill. And that's worth a first. Especially with a flat cap. It might even be worth two firsts. Markstrom would also be very likely to regress throughout the contract.

I am not sure I follow here?

One goalie comes in with 2 years cost certainty, the other goalie would sign for 5-6 years at a cost certainty. The goalie being signed likely needs 1-2M more on the AAV for 2 years. If Kuemper performs to his value he would be looking for a contract similar to the one the Flames would give Markstrom in 10 days. Now the Flames are signing a 32 year old goalie to a 5-6 year deal at the 5.5-6.5Mbso potentially more overall money long term. That or they are once again looking for another starting goalie in 2 years which is about average for this team and needs to stop.

Get a guy now for 5-6 years and ride that player moving forward. This team needs a long term number 1 and I think they can get that without giving up their first round pick.