2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Poster

Why are we talking about NHLe in a trade rumour thread?

Other than I started the derailment, which I do apologize for. Can we start a new thread where I can rant about the fan boi stats?

We're talking about trades that send out draft picks, and are using a data set that shows we should probably not be sending out draft picks because we're doing a good job as of late with those picks.

We should probably start arguing over your use of "fan boi" though.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Hamonic, Smith, Elliott trades were the ones that hurt. Moved assets for guys that were here for no more than 3 years, and who weren't pieces that really helped on the ice either.

Treliving has been in charge of 5 drafts here are his picks in each round.

1st Round: 3 picks (Hamilton trade was okay, Hamonic was bad)
2nd Round: 4 picks (None in the last three years)
3rd Round: 2 picks
4th Round: 6 picks
5th Round: 4 picks
6th Round: 5 picks
7th Rounds: 5 picks

So overall we should have made 35 picks under Treliving, and we've made 29.

And the problem is the picks we've moved are the high value picks in the first three rounds (only drafted 9 out of 15 under Treliving), and it's been worse the last three seasons.

Over the last three years we've had 2 first rounders, no second rounders, and 1 third rounder (3/9)...that's bleeding picks for sure.

What would you rather; be where the Flames are in which I would say is a competitive team that should be in the playoffs year in year out. Or would you rather be in Montreal’s position? They’ve stockpiled picks for years now and are still, in my opinion, not as close to competing as the Flames.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by TOfan

What would you rather; be where the Flames are in which I would say is a competitive team that should be in the playoffs year in year out. Or would you rather be in Montreal’s position? They’ve stockpiled picks for years now and are still, in my opinion, not as close to competing as the Flames.

Uhm, the Flames have shown they aren't any closer or any further away than anybody else outside of the perennial contenders, in which they are a fair bit back. I'd still prefer to build my team through the draft and have back ups in the system if players aren't meshing.

Kind of like how the Hawks balanced their runs with players coming through the system and plugging holes. Flames can't do that except at LW. And we are near the end of the line for defensemen coming through and graduating. The signings of Mackey, Kinvall, Poolman, Lerby and Yelesin filled the gaps for a year or two but after that it's pretty bleak. Using all your picks in this draft would help refurbish that.

[Vinny01]

https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Eklu...Buzz1/1/107638

Eklund has the Rangers wanting Monahan

[Toonage]

####, meet wall.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Uhm, the Flames have shown they aren't any closer or any further away than anybody else outside of the perennial contenders, in which they are a fair bit back. I'd still prefer to build my team through the draft and have back ups in the system if players aren't meshing.

Kind of like how the Hawks balanced their runs with players coming through the system and plugging holes. Flames can't do that except at LW. And we are near the end of the line for defensemen coming through and graduating. The signings of Mackey, Kinvall, Poolman, Lerby and Yelesin filled the gaps for a year or two but after that it's pretty bleak. Using all your picks in this draft would help refurbish that.

League wide, I would say making the playoffs 4 out of 6 years is well above average. I would bet Montreal would jump at that.

[dammage79]

Yeesh, Chytil, Booch, Lias Andersson and a pick?

At least Chytil has Center capability and top 6 talent....youth etc..

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by TOfan

League wide, I would say making the playoffs 4 out of 6 years is well above average. I would bet Montreal would jump at that.

Hmm, 4 out of 6 years and 22 gp, 5 playoff rounds played....not so sure its that much better.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by dammage79

No, it's not an awful narrative. Travis Hamonic was not a young player and that burned 3 assets. Hamilton trade was perfect, not the player I'd have targeted but it was a great exchange of picks. And eventually balanced out getting Hanifin and Lindholm back.

Tree spent 3 picks for 2 years of one player and will have absolutely nothing to show for it in the future. It was a terrible setback.


Yes, the pick spending is bad at the rate the Flames do it. Thankfully so far the scouts have been able to unearth some good talent with later picks but you have to use your 1sts more than once every 2 years.

IMO, if you're going to trade a 1st it should be every 3 or 4 years.

I never said anything about excuses, but it's a terrible narrow minded take.

Since 2014 when Tre took over with the trades involving 1st and 2nd round picks, we are down 2 firsts (3 years apart btw) and and even on second round picks and trades involving them have turned into Lindholm and Hanifin. That is a net gain no matter how you want to twist it.

And he has only traded 2 first rounders in 6 drafts, so he is at the 1 in 3 you suggest is acceptable.

Treliving has also supplemented his drafts by actually getting top ranked European and NCAA free agents to sign here. Some haven't worked out, but it's what way with draft picks too.

[FlamesAreOne]

@FriedgeHNIC

One situation EDM is monitoring: Oscar Klefbom is weighing options to deal with injuries from last season. One of the possibilities is surgery that could keep him out long-term (obviously, we don’t know when next season will begin). His absence would need to be addressed.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Hamonic, Smith, Elliott trades were the ones that hurt. Moved assets for guys that were here for no more than 3 years, and who weren't pieces that really helped on the ice either.

Treliving has been in charge of 5 drafts here are his picks in each round.

1st Round: 3 picks (Hamilton trade was okay, Hamonic was bad)
2nd Round: 4 picks (None in the last three years)
3rd Round: 2 picks
4th Round: 6 picks
5th Round: 4 picks
6th Round: 5 picks
7th Rounds: 5 picks

So overall we should have made 35 picks under Treliving, and we've made 29.

And the problem is the picks we've moved are the high value picks in the first three rounds (only drafted 9 out of 15 under Treliving), and it's been worse the last three seasons.

Over the last three years we've had 2 first rounders, no second rounders, and 1 third rounder (3/9)...that's bleeding picks for sure.

Treliving has been in charge of 6 drafts. You are vastly overrrating the value of 3rd round picks.

Hamonic and Smith helped the Flames be a playoff team in 2019. So giving up a 3rd for Smith did not hurt. Eilliot helped us make the playoffs, so I'm not sure I would say it hurt all that much either. The Lazar trade was worse than either of those.

Also Treliving has successfully brought in top rated NCAA and European free agents on a consistent basis and they likely have similar values to 2nd and 3rd round picks, but like draft picks, they don't always pan out.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

I never said anything about excuses, but it's a terrible narrow minded take.

Since 2014 when Tre took over with the trades involving 1st and 2nd round picks, we are down 2 firsts (3 years apart btw) and and even on second round picks and trades involving them have turned into Lindholm and Hanifin. That is a net gain no matter how you want to twist it.

And he has only traded 2 first rounders in 6 drafts, so he is at the 1 in 3 you suggest is acceptable.

Treliving has also supplemented his drafts by actually getting top ranked European and NCAA free agents to sign here. Some haven't worked out, but it's what way with draft picks too.

I look at the 2 Hamilton trades like this as well

15th pick out for Hamilton
5th pick in the same draft as part of the Hamilton return

Since the rebuild started this team has had the following 1st round picks as part of the org
2013 - 5th Lindholm, 6th Monahan, 17th Lazar, 19th Rychel, 22nd Poirier 24th Shinkaruk, 28th Klimchuk
2014- 4th Bennett
2015- 5th Hanifin
2016- 6th Tkachuk
2017- 17th Valimaki
2018- N/A
2019- 26th Pelletier
2020- 19th/TBD

The team has 5 Players picked in the top 6 since they moved on from Iginla.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by TOfan

What would you rather; be where the Flames are in which I would say is a competitive team that should be in the playoffs year in year out for, at the very least, the next two seasons. Or would you rather be in Montreal’s position? They’ve stockpiled picks for years now and are still, in my opinion, not as close to competing as the Flames.

I want them to trade picks for actual long term solutions that will contribute to the team for more than 1-2 seasons.

Hamilton Trade: That's fine you're adding a 21 year old d-man that should have been a piece here long term, and you had made other trades that had us in a pick surplus but that's not the issue of the last three-four seasons and moving out picks.

But the picks moved out in the last three drafts have done little to move the team forward IMO.

1st, 2 2nds for Hamonic was an overpayment from day 1 and in the end he wasn't worth even just the 1st IMO.

3rd (could have been a second) for Smith....actually not the worst value considering the rumors of Kuemper costing a 1st for two seasons, so this one was actually pretty good value.

Lazar for a 2nd...bad trade as there was no indication Lazar was going to be an NHLer.

Stone for a 3rd & 5th...once again bad value as Stone was a contract liability right away.

Elliott for a 2nd and 3rd...overpayment for a guy that lasted one season here.

Let's look at the net sum of those trades:

Hamonic - 193 games (5 playoff games)
Stone - 148 games ( 4 playoff games)
Lazar- 70 games (1 playoff game)
Elliott - 49 games (4 playoff games, single handedly lost that Anaheim series)

for

Dobson
Bolduc
Iskhakov
Nordgren
Formenton
Kyrou (or who knows...the Flames seemed to want to draft a goalie in round 2 that year, maybe they take Hart with this pick since he was still on the board at the time)

So yeah maybe they were trades because we were made to help open a "window" but personally I'd much rather have Dobson, Formenton, Bolduc, and Kyrou as pieces still in the organization coming up to add to our core, opposed to having nothing in the organization from those trades.

The best way to win a cup is to be good long term and continually build a team, not to just go all in for a "window". The trades above have nothing to do with the Flames being competitive for the next year or two, because none of those pieces are on the roster anymore.

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

Treliving has been in charge of 6 drafts. You are vastly overrrating the value of 3rd round picks.

Hamonic and Smith helped the Flames be a playoff team in 2019. So giving up a 3rd for Smith did not hurt. Eilliot helped us make the playoffs, so I'm not sure I would say it hurt all that much either. The Lazar trade was worse than either of those.

Also Treliving has successfully brought in top rated NCAA and European free agents on a consistent basis and they likely have similar values to 2nd and 3rd round picks, but like draft picks, they don't always pan out.

Treliving was on the job for a month before the 2014 draft, based on everything out of the organization that was very much Burke in charge of that draft.

Smith for a 3rd was unfairly included there for sure, that was actually decent value. Hamonic trade was horrible though, he honestly added nothing to the team that they couldn't have gotten from a mid-tier free agent signing, and we paid a huge premium to get him. Honestly I don't care if we made the playoffs with those guys just to lose in the first round, I want this team to win a cup and be a contender long term, not waste assets just to get in.

And great on Treliving for signing those free agents, but teams can never have enough assets, doesn't give him a pass for making bad trades of draft picks.

[Knut]

I just want them to make a trade so we can have a 100 page thread on it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I would rather give a first for Kuemper than sign Markstrom to a disastrous contract.

But it's just that it doesn't make sense in terms of asset value.

Wow. I disagree with this so strongly, I had to comment.

Markstrom and Kuemper are pretty similar in value - I prefer Markstrom personally, but I welcome either one. And either one would be the best goalie we have had in a very long time.

But as for asset management:

Kuemper minus a mid-1st in a strong draft <<<< Markstrom minus nothing

Markstrom probably costs something like $5.5M per. But I would much rather pay an extra million than give up a 1st unnecessarily.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Wow. I disagree with this so strongly, I had to comment.

Markstrom and Kuemper are pretty similar in value - I prefer Markstrom personally, but I welcome either one. And either one would be the best goalie we have had in a very long time.

But as for asset management:

Kuemper minus a mid-1st in a strong draft <<<< Markstrom minus nothing

Markstrom probably costs something like $5.5M per. But I would much rather pay an extra million than give up a 1st unnecessarily.

I think a 6 x 6 contract would have more negative value than a 19th OA pick.
5.5 I would say is fine, but not for more than 3 or 4 years.

I would rather just keep Talbot or a similar goalie on a cheap contract.
The Flames probably aren't going to win the cup with any of these guys anyways.
Every cup winning goalie since 2009 has been homegrown. The Flames just need someone serviceable for a few years while one of the prospects (hopefully) turn elite. Until then, might as well intelligently manage cap and assets.

[Toonage]

The difference though with Markstrom vs. Kuemper in this instance is that Kuemper would be guaranteed at the rate he is now for 2 years at the cost of your 1st. Markstrom would be sought after and could run you more than just the $1M over Kuemper's cost.

The 1st buys cost certainty in this case. Not insignificant with the cap being what it is.

Not advocating for the trade, though cynically I believe it will happen and likely be worse than just a 1st for a goaltender.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Toonage

The difference though with Markstrom vs. Kuemper in this instance is that Kuemper would be guaranteed at the rate he is now for 2 years at the cost of your 1st. Markstrom would be sought after and could run you more than just the $1M over Kuemper's cost.

The 1st buys cost certainty in this case. Not insignificant with the cap being what it is.

Not advocating for the trade, though cynically I believe it will happen and likely be worse than just a 1st for a goaltender.

2 years isn’t long enough for me. Then what Kuemper at 32 getting 4-6 years at a huge raise? New goalie again?

Personally I hope Wolf is the real deal but he is likely not going to be started ready until he is 24-25. I prefer the Flames give Markstrom a 5-6 year deal where the last couple years are hopefully transitioning to Wolf taking over and the salaries never intersect where both need to be paid starter money.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I prefer the Flames give Markstrom a 5-6 year deal where the last couple years are hopefully transitioning to Wolf taking over and the salaries never intersect where both need to be paid starter money.

How is this different than re-signing Kuemper at the end of his deal for another 3? Would the money be all that different at that point? At least with Kuemper you save at least a million or so, probably more for those first few years.

[Monahammer]

Rangers want Monahan now? Yuck. They don't really have anything I would consider interesting in exchange for Monahan. Unless we're adding something small to get Zibanejad?
Kakko is a bit interesting, but a winger and i'd want an add from NY. Not sure they could stomach that.

Chytil meh.