American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GGG

My point is that we are still a normal polling error away from Trump winning.

Or we're a normal polling error away from a blowout of Reaganesque levels. How about we ignore the polling error margin and just look at the data trend?

[troutman]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1306664448661303297

"feedback", haha

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Also, looking at a range of 10 IQ points is totally meaningless. It's a gross distortion of the data. Hey let's look down our noses at Mississippi! Their average IQ is about 5-6 points lower than the majority of the country! How stupid they are! But wait! Those dumb yokels in North Dakota have an average IQ of 103 compared to those idiots in California with their 95 average...

Considering how flawed IQ tests are to begin with, this is a pretty meaningless difference between states. Also, smaller states (population) will always skew a little higher in IQ compared to very large states. More data points means more regression to the mean.

You must have one hell of an IQ!

[Yamer]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1306531199679188992

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Biden is probably going to win because so many of the fundamental underlying conditions are in his favor. But I hope that Dems don’t then use his campaign as a model for how to run national campaigns. Among other things, the absence of a ground presence and minimal Latino outreach seem like pretty big strategic mistakes, even though they’re unlikely to actually cost him the election.

Could you explain what you mean by this? Haven't we been hearing for the past 6 months or so that all the fundamental conditions favour the Repulicans, and even with the popular vote, Biden would have to overcome those to have a chance at winning? What are you referring to? That he has more popular support?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Underlying conditions like economy is not great, there's a pandemic being badly botched, Biden is far ahead in cash on hand, Trump is Trump and can't stay disciplined for 5 seconds etc...

[MoneyGuy]

I believe that some undecided voters either don’t vote or will make their final determination at the polling station. I think that many of them will consider Trump’s stupid comments, tweets, etc. and many will go to Biden once they realize Trump’s idiocy and the risk of another four years.

[activeStick]

New ad with comments from the lead staffer of the administration's COVID-19 response team.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1306686243422511108

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Underlying conditions like economy is not great, there's a pandemic being badly botched, Biden is far ahead in cash on hand, Trump is Trump and can't stay disciplined for 5 seconds etc...

The economy is weird though. Stock market is pretty great considering, retail and housing development is booming around me from no particularly local factor. They say unemployment is high, but most businesses can't find enough workers to keep open their full hours. Some local businesses haven't survived, but far less than I would have guessed. Houses have bidding wars when they go up for sale. I have no idea why it's happening, but the last few months have been booming in my suburban VA county.

[SportsJunky]

Less then an hour to Biden's Town Hall on CNN. Please Joe, be strong/clear/focused tonight.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

The Black-ish episode about the 2016 election is currently on TV.

They're talking about what Obama meant, and the fears of a Trump Presidency.

All I keep thinking is "Oh man... the fears of the charactrrs/writers are somewhat exaggerated for effect but man oh man its so much worse than they thought!"

Really interesting to see a 2016 perspective of what a Trump presidency could be, and in 2020 looking back and thinking... wow.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

Less then an hour to Biden's Town Hall on CNN. Please Joe, be strong/clear/focused tonight.

Stutters once.

Alright that's it, I'm voting for Trump!!

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

Less then an hour to Biden's Town Hall on CNN. Please Joe, be strong/clear/focused tonight.

He's taken his PEDs, he'll be good!

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I believe that some undecided voters either don’t vote or will make their final determination at the polling station. I think that many of them will consider Trump’s stupid comments, tweets, etc. and many will go to Biden once they realize Trump’s idiocy and the risk of another four years.

The other argument I've heard is that the majority of undecided are in fact closet Trump supporters. They simply don't want to reveal that within the privacy of a voting booth they will support Trump.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by activeStick

New ad with comments from the lead staffer of the administration's COVID-19 response team.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1306686243422511108

That is a pretty powerful ad. "Those disgusting people" is basically "basket of deplorables" but that he's referring to his own base.

Still probably won't move the needle for many of them though.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Looch City

Stutters once.

Alright that's it, I'm voting for Trump!!

Pauses while answering.

Biden is embarrassing himself! This is going to lead to votes for Trump (ignoring the literally hundreds of examples of Trump embarrassing himself)! Dems nominating the worst candidate possible (without providing better alternatives)!

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

That is a pretty powerful ad. "Those disgusting people" is basically "basket of deplorables" but that he's referring to his own base.

Still probably won't move the needle for many of them though.

I always found it really strange that working and middle class rural conservatives bought the idea the Trump represented their interests. A guy who never got his hands dirty once in his life.

[activeStick]

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/09/rev...e-house-ed-it/

Back in April as coronavirus was exploding across the country, the U.S. Postal Service had a plan to send five reusable facemasks to every home across the country.

...

But top administration officials nixed it.

“There was concern from some in the White House Domestic Policy Council and the office of the vice president that households receiving masks might create concern or panic,” one administration official told the Washington Post.

The White House Domestic Policy Council includes President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence. Its acting director is Brooke Rollins. It also includes most of the President’s Cabinet.

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I always found it really strange that working and middle class rural conservatives bought the idea the Trump represented their interests. A guy who never got his hands dirty once in his life.

They bought the myth that he was a powerful and succesful business man because of a reality show and then did the mental gymnastics to convince themselves he was just like them.

They have and will vote again for a character on TV.

[timun]

Who was it that first said "Trump is a poor person's idea of a rich person"? Googling a bit says it was probably Fran Lebowitz, but I'm not entirely sure.