2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[VladtheImpaler]

OEL is negative value, right - am I crazy? I think ARZ should GIVE us the equivalent of the Hamonic price to take on that contract. So, Kuemper + Hall + OEL for ZERO is pretty close to fair value. Of course, we have to fit all that money under the cap, so that is where things get messy. I don't know what we can send back to make the dollars work and how that affects the deal. But I start with the premise that those 3 ARZ are worth ZERO, and then we have to add assets depending on what we are sending back. So, if we send Lucic, we have to add something. But if we send Giordano...

[TheScorpion]

Kuemper kind of reminds me of Brian Elliott. Ok backup who bounced around a bit until he landed in a spot where he plays behind a very defensive-oriented system.

He's a good goalie but I'm getting a little wary about him. I don't see him being worth most acquisition costs, particularly considering how strong the UFA goalie crop is this year.

[dammage79]

Id rather spend an asset on Matt Murray if I'm honest. But Im no GM.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Kuemper kind of reminds me of Brian Elliott. Ok backup who bounced around a bit until he landed in a spot where he plays behind a very defensive-oriented system.

He's a good goalie but I'm getting a little wary about him. I don't see him being worth most acquisition costs, particularly considering how strong the UFA goalie crop is this year.

I am really surprised that you feel that way, considering how much you watch the Yotes.

I watch them a fair bit as well, and I love Kuemper. He doesn't just look like a guy being propped up by a good defensive team to me (though I agree that is definitely a risk with a team like them)

[Toonage]

If its a package deal that Kuemper is a part of that makes sense that picks would be spent. If its just for Kuemper? Yeah, they could wait and go shopping. Unless cost certainty is a prime selling point here too.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Id rather spend an asset on Matt Murray if I'm honest. But Im no GM.

I don't get that. Murray has been terrible. Kuemper has been great.

But Murray had a great run a few years ago.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I am really surprised that you feel that way, considering how much you watch the Yotes.

I watch them a fair bit as well, and I love Kuemper. He doesn't just look like a guy being propped up by a good defensive team to me (though I agree that is definitely a risk with a team like them)

I like him, and I think there's no denying that he's improved a lot since he was in Minnesota, but I also don't know if he's a massive upgrade over some of the names available in UFA.

Ultimately — is Darcy Kuemper going to be the franchise guy? No, he's a stopgap for two years, maybe a couple more. And I don't see a reason to give up another high pick for another stopgap, particularly when there are so many quality guys on the market this year (Khudobin, Talbot, Markstrom, etc.). Kuemper as an idea is decent but is he so much better than the guys available for free that the Flames should give up what Arizona is probably going to want for him? I'm just not sure.

But I think at this point I'm really just tired of the goalie carousel. I think the team should stick with Talbot until he proves to them that he's done (or until one of the prospects shows him up). Talbot is free and IMO is just as good as Kuemper.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Disagree entirely with this post. Going all in right now and tossing picks out the door like a flower girl at a wedding would set this franchise back decades. Decades. I swear to effing God some people including the Flames organization completely forget how many picks they sent off for failure of building around the core.

And in this era, you absolutely have to....have to build your organization through the draft. This is not negotiable.

Operating an NHL franchise in 2020 is nothing like pre cap asset management. Your thinking is so assed backwards it blows my mind.

The organization has already been set back decades by the absolutely horrible pick management up to this point.

If your strategy is to mortgage the future to win now you'd better ####ing go all in on it because so far theyve mortgaged the future and suck ass.

Picks that would help this core group win were made 3-12 years ago.

Andrew Mangiapane, rasmus Andersson and Oliver kylington were drafted FIVE YEARS AGO.

There's no immediate help coming in the form of drafted players.

If you're going to do something, do it 110%,

This team and their results were cast years ago man. It's the entire reason why theyve been trading picks in the first place, they have no talent.

[Roof-Daddy]

I put this in the OEL thread earlier:

Hanifin
Kylington
Lucic
Ryan

for

OEL (1,500,000 retained)
Kuemper
Demers
Hall's rights


The cap hit's are almost dead even, including the retention.
It saves the Yotes over $30 million long term in real dollars, even with the retention.
Flames get OEL at a $6.75 million cap hit and new #1 goalie as well as a right hand top 4 Dman who is a UFA in 1 season and won't gum up the expansion protection list.

I like the idea of OEL and Kuemper, but I really don't want to see picks going the other way.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I could definitely see a deal where the 19th pick is involved in a trade that brings back Kuemper and a signed Taylor Hall. This would then solidify a trade for Gaudreau where a first round pick is part of the return.

I’ve been of this thinking for a while but lately I’ve been wondering if Hall would sign here if he knew Johnny was getting traded?

Hall wants to win. Does he think Johnny will help more or would a 1st round pick?

We know Hall and Johnny had some fun at the all star game years ago which isn’t real hockey but you’d have to think that Hall wold have more interest in playing on a line with Johnny than say Connor Zary?

Hall’s prime years are now, doubt he wants the Flames to trade Johnny for a pick. And I don’t know that’s there’s a Johnny trade out there that brings in good talent to support Hall now.

I’m thinking if they sign Hall, they keep Johnny and maybe move other fringe pieces like Ryan for cap space to fill out other holes in the roster like goalie and defense.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Why would we even want an 8th year?

And then, why the hell would we give up more assets to get it?

I've moved more and more to the notion that 5-6 is better than 7-8 years for a contract. Unless it's a steal of a deal of course. which won't be the case with Hall.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I put this in the OEL thread earlier:

Hanifin
Kylington
Lucic
Ryan

for

OEL (1,500,000 retained)
Kuemper
Demers
Hall's rights


The cap hit's are almost dead even, including the retention.
It saves the Yotes over $30 million long term in real dollars, even with the retention.
Flames get OEL at a $6.75 million cap hit and new #1 goalie as well as a right hand top 4 Dman who is a UFA in 1 season and won't gum up the expansion protection list.

I like the idea of OEL and Kuemper, but I really don't want to see picks going the other way.

Ryan and Lucic are $9M of nothingness.

I know you are trying to even out the money (rightly so), but there isn't much in the package for ARI to actually like.

As a quick modification, I would say add two 1st round picks to that offer, and it is a lot closer to being balanced.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I've moved more and more to the notion that 5-6 is better than 7-8 years for a contract. Unless it's a steal of a deal of course. which won't be the case with Hall.

I agree on a general level, and I especially agree with Hall.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Ryan and Lucic are $9M of nothingness.

I know you are trying to even out the money (rightly so), but there isn't much in the package for ARI to actually like.

They would have to REALLY like Hanifin and be in much tighter financial situation long term than even advertised at this time. I agree that it's far fetched, but again there are few trades that we make with Arizona where we keep our dignity, and I think this actually works. I think I like it better than my suggestion of Gio+Ryan+Rittich+1st for the same package.

I hope we don't trade with Arizona.

[bax]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I like him, and I think there's no denying that he's improved a lot since he was in Minnesota, but I also don't know if he's a massive upgrade over some of the names available in UFA.

Ultimately — is Darcy Kuemper going to be the franchise guy? No, he's a stopgap for two years, maybe a couple more. And I don't see a reason to give up another high pick for another stopgap, particularly when there are so many quality guys on the market this year (Khudobin, Talbot, Markstrom, etc.). Kuemper as an idea is decent but is he so much better than the guys available for free that the Flames should give up what Arizona is probably going to want for him? I'm just not sure.

But I think at this point I'm really just tired of the goalie carousel. I think the team should stick with Talbot until he proves to them that he's done (or until one of the prospects shows him up). Talbot is free and IMO is just as good as Kuemper.

I don't know, I think Kuemper could be the franchise goalie for the next 5 seasons. Of course nothing is guaranteed, but he is only 30 and it's not all that surprising to see a goalie develop into star during their late 20's. 5 seasons is an eternity in the NHL. 2 seasons at 4.5 is a really fair contract.

I really don't think the Elliot comparison is valid. Everyone knew he had inflated numbers from playing for the Blues, but there was hope he could be a legitimate starter even though St.Louis never gave him that opportunity (for good reason).

I know the goalie analytics aren't an exact science, but Kuemper is regularly right at the top and from the Coyotes games I have watched his play seems to back that up. More often than not, he is keeping that team afloat. Anybody watch that series against Colorado?

Arizona gets by on a reputation as a very defensive team, but unless I'm mistaken haven't they been average at best over the last couple years at giving up high quality scoring chances? I think Tocchet has been very overrated.

Talbot had a nice rebound year, but at the end of the day he is 3 years older than Kuemper and arguably has less pedigree (espeically when looking at the last 2 seasons).

I won't be disappointed if they just roll with Talbot and give him a modest salary bump, but I really think Kuemper is a big time upgrade. It also closes that goalie carousel for 2-5 years where I think Talbot has a much shorter shelf life.

If the M.O is to go all in then I don't even mind if Kuemper is only here for 2 years as long as he continues to provide the same level of goaltending that he has for Arizona and LA before that. Talbot just feels like much more of a gamble to me despite what it will cost to bring Kuemper in.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Ryan and Lucic are $9M of nothingness.

I know you are trying to even out the money (rightly so), but there isn't much in the package for ARI to actually like.

As a quick modification, I would say add two 1st round picks to that offer, and it is a lot closer to being balanced.

Hmm. We are way off in our valuations here.

The money isn't even though, it's heavily skewed in Arizona's favor with the Flames having to pay over $30 million more in total when the dust settles. What is that worth?

Hanifin roughly equal to OEL in value given the cost, age and AAV of each player.
Ryan roughly equal to Demers, mid 30's pending UFAs, one a bottom 6 C, the other a middle pair D.
Kylington and Lucic roughly equal to Kuemper
Hall's rights thrown in don't have a ton of value

Now, Lucic carries negative value because of his cap hit. But that doesn't matter to Arizona. All they'd have to pay him over his remaining 3 seasons is a total of $7,750,000. He's easily still a $2,583,333 AAV player.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I like him, and I think there's no denying that he's improved a lot since he was in Minnesota, but I also don't know if he's a massive upgrade over some of the names available in UFA.

Ultimately — is Darcy Kuemper going to be the franchise guy? No, he's a stopgap for two years, maybe a couple more. And I don't see a reason to give up another high pick for another stopgap, particularly when there are so many quality guys on the market this year (Khudobin, Talbot, Markstrom, etc.). Kuemper as an idea is decent but is he so much better than the guys available for free that the Flames should give up what Arizona is probably going to want for him? I'm just not sure.

But I think at this point I'm really just tired of the goalie carousel. I think the team should stick with Talbot until he proves to them that he's done (or until one of the prospects shows him up). Talbot is free and IMO is just as good as Kuemper.

I tend to agree.

For what the rumoured cost it would be to acquire him, I don't think he is enough of an upgrade.

I just don't think there is a big enough sample size for him to assume he can be anything more than another adequate platoon guy. I'd keep our assets and go with Talbot again if the other option was Kuemper.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Hmm. We are way off in our valuations here.

The money isn't even though, it's heavily skewed in Arizona's favor with the Flames having to pay over $30 million more in total when the dust settles. What is that worth?

Hanifin roughly equal to OEL
Ryan roughly equal to Demers
Kylington and Lucic roughly equal to Kuemper
Hall's rights thrown in don't have a ton of value

Now, Lucic carries negative value because of his cap hit. But that doesn't matter to Arizona. All they'd have to pay him over his remaining 3 seasons is a total of $7,750,000. He's easily still a $2,583,333 AAV player.

OEL > Hanifin
Kylington + Lucic IS NOT roughly equal to Kuemper

Hall's salary doesn't really factor in, so salary swap is $13.33M (plus Kylington) for $16.69M, which I think is fine.

But I think you have to offer ARI more positive assets (i.e. picks).

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

OEL > Hanifin
Kylington + Lucic IS NOT roughly equal to Kuemper

Hall's salary doesn't really factor in, so salary swap is $13.33M (plus Kylington) for $16.69M, which I think is fine.

But I think you have to offer ARI more positive assets (i.e. picks).

I edited my post.

OEL is definitely better than Hanifin, my edit explains why I think the two players value is fairly close though.

And I'm going disagree about the value of Kylington and Lucic (owed only $7.75 million dollars) not being equal to a Kuemper. The Yotes could care less about Lucic $5.25 million cap hit.

With retention on OEL the cap hit's are almost bang on, then you add Kylington who's QO is only $787,500.

$14,825,000 = Lucic + Ryan + Hanifin + OEL retention
$15,187,500 = Kuemper + Demers + OEL (minus retention)

I never factored Hall's salary into any of this.

[dammage79]

You know, except for the fact there's 6 years of age difference and about 4 million in cap difference and about what....3 years of term difference, yeah sure OEL is better than Hanifin.

Yall need some smelling salts.