2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

again, those stats list quantity, not quality, from each area. The assumption is that they average out. But that assumption does not always apply.

GSAA certainly doesn't go any deeper than shot quantity, but a team's xGA certainly does.

So by parsing two stats together you may arrive at an answer.

Dallas and Boston don't give up much, so the fact that their goaltenders do better than a quantitative average makes sense.

The Coyotes have an xGA in this time period that is 12th worst in the league, but their goaltenders are 1 and 2 in GSAA.

That's starting to suggest they are simply great goaltenders, or at least hinting that way in a deeper sense than just shot quantity.

Facing the 7th worst high danger chances/60 says more shots in the home plate area coming off of passes, shot deflections and rebounds which can't be good for a goalie's save percentage.

[Blaster86]

Sounds like Tanev and Toffoli will both be re-signing in Vancouver shortly. No idea what Toffoli will go for, but Tanev is apparently willing to leave money on the table.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

GSAA certainly doesn't go any deeper than shot quantity, but a team's xGA certainly does.

So by parsing two stats together you may arrive at an answer.

Dallas and Boston don't give up much, so the fact that their goaltenders do better than a quantitative average makes sense.

The Coyotes have an xGA in this time period that is 12th worst in the league, but their goaltenders are 1 and 2 in GSAA.

That's starting to suggest they are simply great goaltenders, or at least hinting that way in a deeper sense than just shot quantity.

Facing the 7th worst high danger chances/60 says more shots in the home plate area coming off of passes, shot deflections and rebounds which can't be good for a goalie's save percentage.

But they are being compared to other home plate chances (i.e. passes, shot deflections and rebounds). It is entirely possible (and almost certainly the case for some teams) that their home plate chances are not as dangerous, aggregately, as other teams' home plate chances (whether it is because those shots are often rushed, or whatever)

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Sounds like Tanev and Toffoli will both be re-signing in Vancouver shortly. No idea what Toffoli will go for, but Tanev is apparently willing to leave money on the table.

If you guys keep Toffoli then Markstrom has to be moving on?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Sounds like Tanev and Toffoli will both be re-signing in Vancouver shortly. No idea what Toffoli will go for, but Tanev is apparently willing to leave money on the table.

If they both sign, I don't see how there will be room for Markstrom.

$14M to sign 3 forwards, 2 D and a goalie.

Toffoli and Tanev will probably come in around or above $10M

[868904]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If they both sign, I don't see how there will be room for Markstrom.

$14M to sign 3 forwards, 2 D and a goalie.

Toffoli and Tanev will probably come in around or above $10M

They sign Toffoli, allows them to trade Boeser who should get them a good return.

It's the same idea of signing Hall and trading Johnny.

Plus you take away one of the prime forwards and goalies (Markstrom), then that drives up the value of your other players in trades (Boeser and Demko).

I'm sure they will trade guys like Virtanen, Beagle, Ferland and Eriksson. They will have to sweeten it for the last 3 but with whatever they get for Boeser and Demko, that will be parlayed into the sweetener.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But they are being compared to other home plate chances (i.e. passes, shot deflections and rebounds). It is entirely possible (and almost certainly the case for some teams) that their home plate chances are not as dangerous, aggregately, as other teams' home plate chances (whether it is because those shots are often rushed, or whatever)

For sure it's not like all HD chances are graded on a scale and then averaged.

But it's not just a shot from home plate, that's not a HD shot attempt it's just a SC shot attempt.

To get to the HD category it has to come off a pass, deflection or rebound, which at least as an assumption makes it more difficult to save for a goaltender.

The Coyotes give up the 7th most of those per game over the last three years.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

For sure it's not like all HD chances are graded on a scale and then averaged.

But it's not just a shot from home plate, that's not a HD shot attempt it's just a SC shot attempt.

To get to the HD category it has to come off a pass, deflection or rebound, which at least as an assumption makes it more difficult to save for a goaltender.

The Coyotes give up the 7th most of those per game over the last three years.

I understand that. But not all deflections, and not all rebounds, are created equal. That's the point.

I also understand statistics, and understand that - normally- these things more or less average out. However, there will be teams that do a better job of rushing those chances, of limiting the ability to raise rebound chances, etc. There will be teams for whom those chances are not equal to the chances on other teams.

And when your goalies are all putting up fantastic stats (and past goalies did as well), it is a good indication that this may be the case for your team.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by 868904

They sign Toffoli, allows them to trade Boeser who should get them a good return.

It's the same idea of signing Hall and trading Johnny.

Plus you take away one of the prime forwards and goalies (Markstrom), then that drives up the value of your other players in trades (Boeser and Demko).

I'm sure they will trade guys like Virtanen, Beagle, Ferland and Eriksson. They will have to sweeten it for the last 3 but with whatever they get for Boeser and Demko, that will be parlayed into the sweetener.

Boeser, sure. Good luck with the rest.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Boeser, sure. Good luck with the rest.

Someone would take a flyer on Virtanen I bet

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Someone would take a flyer on Virtanen I bet

Flames should be keeping a close eye on that. Establishes the a market for Bennett if they move him.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Someone would take a flyer on Virtanen I bet

Yeah, sure. But what do they get for him? And they have to replace him with someone else. He was making a buck twenty-five this year and is an RFA. So the new team has uncertainty as to his cost, plus, the Nucks have to replace him with someone who will cost almost as much, even is they are league minimum.

[Blaster86]

So from the Canucks stand point here is how they plan to sign both Toffoli and Markstrom (assuming they're not just planning to run with Demko).

- Internally they believe there is a market for Sutter after the play-offs. There is something to this, as through the Minnesota and St.Louis series he was a major contributor. He looked good when we had him at center. He fell off when moved back to the wing when Gaudette got healthy.

- Ferland is going to Robidas island. He cannot be cleared. He can't. If he does, it is a major failure on the part of the Canucks to protect him. I would prefer Ferland be able to play. I think someone like him is a huge help for the Canucks bottom 6. But he should not be playing.

- Eriksson is gone. Come hell or high water, he's gone. It will be after his final bonus pay-out before the start of next season, and it's not going to be a "hockey trade" but he will not be a Canuck next season.

- Virtanen is gone. They'll likely just not qualify him.

- Expectation for players on ELCs or lower contracts to step up. Rafferty, Juolevi, Rathbone.

- Trading Boeser is not the plan. Unless he's returning a bonafide Top- 4 dman under 26 years old he isn't leaving. He won't be leaving until at the very least Podkolzin shows he is an NHLer.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yeah, sure. But what do they get for him? And they have to replace him with someone else. He was making a buck twenty-five this year and is an RFA. So the new team has uncertainty as to his cost, plus, the Nucks have to replace him with someone who will cost almost as much, even is they are league minimum.

Zac MacEwen takes his spot.

[Enoch Root]

bold strategy cotton

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

So from the Canucks stand point here is how they plan to sign both Toffoli and Markstrom (assuming they're not just planning to run with Demko).

- Internally they believe there is a market for Sutter after the play-offs. There is something to this, as through the Minnesota and St.Louis series he was a major contributor. He looked good when we had him at center. He fell off when moved back to the wing when Gaudette got healthy.

- Ferland is going to Robidas island. He cannot be cleared. He can't. If he does, it is a major failure on the part of the Canucks to protect him. I would prefer Ferland be able to play. I think someone like him is a huge help for the Canucks bottom 6. But he should not be playing.

- Eriksson is gone. Come hell or high water, he's gone. It will be after his final bonus pay-out before the start of next season, and it's not going to be a "hockey trade" but he will not be a Canuck next season.

- Virtanen is gone. They'll likely just not qualify him.

- Expectation for players on ELCs or lower contracts to step up. Rafferty, Juolevi, Rathbone.

- Trading Boeser is not the plan. Unless he's returning a bonafide Top- 4 dman under 26 years old he isn't leaving. He won't be leaving until at the very least Podkolzin shows he is an NHLer.



Zac MacEwen takes his spot.

I think the plan is to run with Demko.

I agree with your point on Sutter, I think retaining as little as $1m will really make him a good trade option for teams seeking a #3C.

In the end, it is not up to the Canucks about Ferland. If they don't clear him and he gets cleared by second and third opinions and is willing to take the risk, the PA will file a grievance on his behalf.

I wouldn't bet on Eriksson being gone unless the Canucks are paying someone to take him.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

bold strategy cotton

MacEwen looked fantastic in a 4th line role, which is where Virtanen was. Simply put, we have Hoglander coming this year. Podkolzin also likely ends up here over the course of the next season due to its disjointed nature. Virtanen, as much I don't like it, is expendable/not wanted by the canucks staff.

He will be a consistent 20 goal scorer, but he's run out of rope in Vancouver. Showing up for the bubble camp out of shape again sealed it.

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

In the end, it is not up to the Canucks about Ferland. If they don't clear him and he gets cleared by second and third opinions and is willing to take the risk, the PA will file a grievance on his behalf.

There is 0 chance he gets cleared imo. By anyone. He can't go more than 4 periods at a time.

[kyuss275]

I read that flyers GM said he will improve his team through trade and not free agency.

[dammage79]

Virtanen could have a potential fit on the Flames. But its not the be all end all signing. He's just an option as an RHS natural RW. Which I am sure the Flames will look at.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

MacEwen looked fantastic in a 4th line role, which is where Virtanen was. Simply put, we have Hoglander coming this year. Podkolzin also likely ends up here over the course of the next season due to its disjointed nature. Virtanen, as much I don't like it, is expendable/not wanted by the canucks staff.

He will be a consistent 20 goal scorer, but he's run out of rope in Vancouver. Showing up for the bubble camp out of shape again sealed it.

I was referring to the entire post. That is a pretty long wish list.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

There is 0 chance he gets cleared imo. By anyone. He can't go more than 4 periods at a time.

I doubt he is cleared too, but in my experience, it is never wise to claim there is 0 chance of something.