American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Just watched Biden's Kenosha town hall. He was very quiet and soft-spoken, even whispering at times, and I'm not sure if that was a conscious choice to come off as kind and thoughtful or if he's just on power saver mode.

I really do think he comes across as just... old and tired. Old, tired Biden is still about a thousand times better than loud, boisterous Trump, but it just doesn't seem like the ideal energy to be communicating to voters.

... Also someone needs to tell the pastor of the church they're holding the event at that when you get a new suit you need to take the tag off the sleeve.

I had to explain that to a young guy I was working with, he was of the opinion 'I leave the tag on my caps so people can see how much I spent on it' I had to explain you couldnt apply hood rat rules to a nice italian suit and he needed to learn the art of understatement

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Johnhitbox

Hey guys! I highly recommend reading the parasitic mind, once it comes out. Try drinking the wine instead of sniffing the cork. Just be open minded. At the very least.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'll read it, because while I've disagreed plenty with Saad's conclusions (generally because he bases a lot of them on really poor and uninformed premises and sensationalized a lot of issues), I don't mind reading people I disagree with to at least see what they're talking about (I read Peterson's book, for example, which I thought was mostly nonsense pandering to non-thinkers). I will say this though, regarding stuff like this:

Originally Posted by Johnhitbox

Jordan as a vegetable is still above the average iq of the majority of social scientists.

I placed this in here because it’s very politically driven. People are blinded by msm on here.

The proper place for this is the Intellectual Dark Web thread. This book is about societal issues, and has as much to do with American Politics as every societal issue does, so put it in the right place. And, anytime you make statements like "Jordan as a vegetable is still above the average IQ of the majority of social scientists" or "People are blinded by msm" you're basically showing that you're neither of an open mind, nor a critical thinker, so I would just suggest not doing that if your goal is to ask others to do it.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Johnhitbox

Hey guys! I highly recommend reading the parasitic mind, once it comes out. Try drinking the wine instead of sniffing the cork. Just be open minded. At the very least.

I wouldn't waste my time. Jordan Peterson is a fraud, and Gad Saad is cut from the same cloth. How can you take anyone seriously who takes his schtick to Glenn Beck, Reason TV, Joe Rogan, Mark Rubin, and Adam Carolla? When that is your target audience you have nothing serious to say. Myadvice, don't drink their whine and stop sniffing their farts. These clowns are the biggest threat to free thought there is at the moment because they refuse to encourage critical thought.

[troutman]

Interesting to me for a few reasons:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...-november.aspx

This coming November, residents of three states are guaranteed to be voting on a cannabis measure in their respective states. However, four additional states may join.

On the ballot: NJ, Mississippi, S Dakota
Signatures submitted: Arizona, Montana, Nebraska
Pending review: Oklahoma

Could this turn out more young/liberal voters? AZ being most in play.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Gad Saad strikes me as far less of a nutbar than Peterson, and more of an opportunist. He's a legitimately qualified evolutionary psychologist who got some traction from many of the same people who like Peterson, realized he'd found himself an audience, and ran with it. Not unlike Dave Rubin in that respect (with the caveat that Rubin, as far as I know, doesn't have any expertise in any discipline).

It seems like when it comes to public intellectuals who follow that path, the longer they run with their audience, the farther they wind up going off the reservation and into crazytown, and cease to be worth paying much attention to.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Meh. No thanks. I read the synopsis and honestly that sounds ... terrible.

I mean, it was fun when people took Jordan Peterson and his minions seriously for about 10 minutes last year but to release a book now that suggests it is “progressive safe zones” are what is killing critical thinking in the West when one of the major political parties in the US is literally welcoming conspiracy theorists and kooks into their tent and trying to gaslight a global pandemic and a systemic issue with racially motivated violence by cops out of existence, I think we can leave “progressive safe zones” (whatever THOSE are) alone for a little while.

These people are just trying to make a buck off of disenchanted right wingers and “men’s rights” types. But if Trumpism has taught us anything it’s that a liberal society can’t just let illiberal ideas clothe themselves in pseudo-intellectual bafflegab and then give their proponents a seat at the table of discourse in the name of being “open minded.” It’s time to call Jordan Peterson and his minions out: they aren’t serious intellectuals.

Thanked for the use of pseudo-intellectual bafflegab. I'm using that phrase going forward.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by New Era

No, the polls didn't reflect that. The electoral college had the race close and even the national polls had it close. Clinton was projected to win by 2.1 points, and that was accurate in the popular vote. Unfortunately the electoral college was a toss up in many swing states, which is where predictions should really focus. This is why American politics is so hard for Canadians to understand, the popular vote and polling is misleading. You have to dig into the data to make a projection and understand the confounding nature of the other party candidates in the binary polling data. What was unexpected was the "undecided" statistic would break almost exclusively to Trump in three swing states. This outcome was so statistically small it raised a lot of eyebrows from those who provide oversight in relation to elections. But it was consistent with some models and outcomes.



That is what Trump wants you to believe. He wants you to believe that people will lie and not tell pollsters accurate information. He wants you to believe that the system is not telling the truth so he can then claim the results of the election are bogus. The fact this stuff is repeated is concerning and means his message is resonating with the public and consumers are buying it. Our democracy is dying before our eyes because people are ignorant and won't challenge a damn thing they are told.

Clinton led national polls by about 10% end of Aug 2016, iirc

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Clinton led national polls by about 10% end of Aug 2016, iirc

Your recall is incorrect. While it seemed that way, and we were headed to a trouncing, the numbers said otherwise.

September 1st, 2016: Clinton +3.2

Clinton had a great September and stretched that polling lead to +7.1 on October 15th... then James Comey saved the day for Trump. By November 1st that lead had shrunk to +1.9. She had a small bounce before election day, but all results remained within the margin of error.

Again, national numbers mean nothing when the electoral college is in play. You have to watch the state polls and Trump was strong in battleground states because Clinton ignored them.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by New Era

Your recall is incorrect. While it seemed that way, and we were headed to a trouncing, the numbers said otherwise.

September 1st, 2016: Clinton +3.2

Clinton had a great September and stretched that polling lead to +7.1 on October 15th... then James Comey saved the day for Trump. By November 1st that lead had shrunk to +1.9. She had a small bounce before election day, but all results remained within the margin of error.

Again, national numbers mean nothing when the electoral college is in play. You have to watch the state polls and Trump was strong in battleground states because Clinton ignored them.

god what private hell Comey must live in these days, the moron that handed the election to Trump on a platter

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by New Era

Your recall is incorrect. While it seemed that way, and we were headed to a trouncing, the numbers said otherwise.

September 1st, 2016: Clinton +3.2

Clinton had a great September and stretched that polling lead to +7.1 on October 15th... then James Comey saved the day for Trump. By November 1st that lead had shrunk to +1.9. She had a small bounce before election day, but all results remained within the margin of error.

Again, national numbers mean nothing when the electoral college is in play. You have to watch the state polls and Trump was strong in battleground states because Clinton ignored them.

No, I recall correctly

Hillary Clinton Leads By a Dozen in Latest August Poll
BY REUTERS ON 8/23/16 AT 5:37 PM EDT

August 25, 2016 - Clinton Tops 50 Percent, Leads Trump By 10 Points, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds

Etc

I agree, national polls mean nothing, but let's present it accurately

[Wastedyouth]

Lol, I can't even believe people still take Jordan Peterson seriously. That's hilarious.

[RedHot25]

This...this...well this is....

Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’
The president has repeatedly disparaged the intelligence of service members, and asked that wounded veterans be kept out of military parades, multiple sources tell The Atlantic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...campaign=share


https://twitter.com/kathrynw5/status...40378659950592
"In a conversation with senior staff members ... Trump said, 'Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.' In a separate conversation ... Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives.. as 'suckers' for getting killed."

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...38624061132808
In a conversation with senior staff members about the scheduled visit, Trump said, "Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers." In a separate convo, Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as "suckers" for getting killed.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...37354617270273
Breaking via The Atlantic: Trump canceled a visit to a U.S. military cemetery in France in 2018 because he feared his hair would become disheveled in the rain and because he didn't believe it important to honor American war dead, according to four people.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

This...this...well this is....

Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’
The president has repeatedly disparaged the intelligence of service members, and asked that wounded veterans be kept out of military parades, multiple sources tell The Atlantic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...campaign=share


https://twitter.com/kathrynw5/status...40378659950592
"In a conversation with senior staff members ... Trump said, 'Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.' In a separate conversation ... Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives.. as 'suckers' for getting killed."

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...38624061132808
In a conversation with senior staff members about the scheduled visit, Trump said, "Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers." In a separate convo, Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as "suckers" for getting killed.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...37354617270273
Breaking via The Atlantic: Trump canceled a visit to a U.S. military cemetery in France in 2018 because he feared his hair would become disheveled in the rain and because he didn't believe it important to honor American war dead, according to four people.

.... not surprising.....?

[RedHot25]

Sigh.

https://twitter.com/kathrynw5/status...40989312835584

"But Trump, on that same trip, asked aides, 'Who were the good guys in this war?' He also said that he didn’t understand why the United States would intervene on the side of the Allies."

This probably sums up a lot of things, in just a couple of sentences: https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...46260890411012

On Memorial Day 2017, Trump visited Arlington's Section 60 with John Kelly. That's where Kelly's son is buried. According to sources with knowledge, Trump, while standing by Robert Kelly's grave, turned directly to his father and said, "I don't get it. What was in it for them?"

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

No, I recall correctly


Etc

I agree, national polls mean nothing, but let's present it accurately

Oh, I agree. Let's present this correctly. I have a feeling your stats are just Clinton-Trump head-to-head, and not a representation of the real election polling of all candidates included.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tein-5952.html

You can see actual lead day-by-day on the graph.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

No, I recall correctly





Etc

I agree, national polls mean nothing, but let's present it accurately

That Quinnipiac poll was taken in August. Quinnipiac did a September poll in 2016 that showed Clinton up only 5 points and polling under 50%.

In the first week of September RCP reported the following polls:

Quinnipiac 9/8 - 9/13 48 43 Clinton +5
Reuters 9/8 - 9/12 40 39 Clinton +1
LA Times 9/5 - 9/11 44 44 Tie
NBC News 9/5 - 9/11 48 44 Clinton +4
ABC/WP 9/5 - 9/8 51 43 Clinton +8
YouGov 9/4 - 9/6 44 42 Clinton +2
Reuters 9/1 - 9/5 40 38 Clinton +2
CNN/ORC 9/1 - 9/4 48 49 Trump +1

That is a very different scenario. Apart from one outlier in the high single digits almost every pollster (including Quinnipiac) had the race well within the margin of error. If we go a week farther out we saw a few polls (including one from Fox News, which is actually a very reliable pollster) that showed Trump slightly ahead.

I’m not saying Trump is for sure not going to win but based on polling averages Biden is in a much stronger position than Clinton was around the same time in 2016.

And you’re right: at the end of the day the problem for Clinton was in a handful of swing states, including Wisconsin and Michigan—which in 2016 had only about 4 or 5 polls each for the entire election season, which makes extrapolating from a polling average much more in exact (and the race showed as pretty close anyway). But if we are going to remember 2016 let’s also recognize the ways in which 2020 is quite obviously different.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

On Memorial Day 2017, Trump visited Arlington's Section 60 with John Kelly. That's where Kelly's son is buried. According to sources with knowledge, Trump, while standing by Robert Kelly's grave, turned directly to his father and said, "I don't get it. What was in it for them?"

You should link the actual article. Nothing surprising, here, just what you'd expect of Trump.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...campaign=share

On Memorial Day 2017, Trump visited Arlington National Cemetery, a short drive from the White House. He was accompanied on this visit by John Kelly, who was then the secretary of homeland security, and who would, a short time later, be named the White House chief of staff. The two men were set to visit Section 60, the 14-acre area of the cemetery that is the burial ground for those killed in America’s most recent wars. Kelly’s son Robert is buried in Section 60. A first lieutenant in the Marine Corps, Robert Kelly was killed in 2010 in Afghanistan. He was 29. Trump was meant, on this visit, to join John Kelly in paying respects at his son’s grave, and to comfort the families of other fallen service members. But according to sources with knowledge of this visit, Trump, while standing by Robert Kelly’s grave, turned directly to his father and said, “I don’t get it. What was in it for them?”

Kelly (who declined to comment for this story) initially believed, people close to him said, that Trump was making a ham-handed reference to the selflessness of America’s all-volunteer force. But later he came to realize that Trump simply does not understand non-transactional life choices.

“He can’t fathom the idea of doing something for someone other than himself,” one of Kelly’s friends, a retired four-star general, told me. “He just thinks that anyone who does anything when there’s no direct personal gain to be had is a sucker. There’s no money in serving the nation.” Kelly’s friend went on to say, “Trump can’t imagine anyone else’s pain. That’s why he would say this to the father of a fallen marine on Memorial Day in the cemetery where he’s buried.”

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

This...this...well this is....

Trump: Americans Who Died in War Are ‘Losers’ and ‘Suckers’
The president has repeatedly disparaged the intelligence of service members, and asked that wounded veterans be kept out of military parades, multiple sources tell The Atlantic.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...campaign=share

https://twitter.com/kathrynw5/status...40378659950592
"In a conversation with senior staff members ... Trump said, 'Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers.' In a separate conversation ... Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives.. as 'suckers' for getting killed."

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...38624061132808
In a conversation with senior staff members about the scheduled visit, Trump said, "Why should I go to that cemetery? It’s filled with losers." In a separate convo, Trump referred to the more than 1,800 marines who lost their lives at Belleau Wood as "suckers" for getting killed.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/sta...37354617270273
Breaking via The Atlantic: Trump canceled a visit to a U.S. military cemetery in France in 2018 because he feared his hair would become disheveled in the rain and because he didn't believe it important to honor American war dead, according to four people.

Spoken like a man who’s successfully avoided all military service. It’s a Trump family tradition.

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by Titan

Why would we want dis-barred US lawyers practicing here? Seems to be an odd complaint.

Huh?

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Losers and suckers.

In normal times saying something so incredibly stupid would probably lose you the election on the spot. Today in the U.S. it probably won't even move the needle.