American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Uhhh...sure. This was from 2 days ago:

https://nypost.com/2020/09/02/joe-bi...us-death-toll/

It's not egregious by any means, but he's certainly still struggling putting his thoughts together.

Gonna start calling this 'both-sidesism'.

[FlamesAddiction]

Happened a few days ago, so I won't post the whole thing, but that rant by Trump claiming that Biden is on drugs due to the fact, he has become a more effective speaker recently. I think he said he even wants Biden to take a test.

The funny part for me is that young people listening to Trump are probably thinking, "Yeah man, I suck at everything in life, but if Trump says drugs raise my game, I'm in".

[MissTeeks]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-po...unding-cities/

President Trump on Wednesday approved a memo that the White House said is intended to begin restricting federal funding from going to certain Democratic-led cities that the administration determines to be “anarchist jurisdictions,” aiming to levy an extraordinary attack on political opponents just months ahead of the 2020 election.
In a five-page memo, the president directs the White House Office of Management and Budget to give guidance to federal agencies on restricting funding to cities that “defund” their police departments. The memo also directs the Justice Department within 14 days to come up with a list of localities that qualify as “anarchist jurisdictions” and post that list publicly. Trump has said there is a wide-ranging Democratic plot to defund police departments, although most prominent Democrats, including presidential nominee Joe Biden, have adamantly rejected this approach.

“My Administration will not allow Federal tax dollars to fund cities that allow themselves to deteriorate into lawless zones,” the president’s memo states. “It is imperative that the Federal Government review the use of Federal funds by jurisdictions that permit anarchy, violence, and destruction in America’s cities.”

[direwolf]

Just more red meat for his base. Man, he's really desperate. He can't run on the economy anymore, so he's just throwing out whatever bats**t crazy crap comes into his head to see if anything sticks. His current Hail Mary attempt of trying to tie all the protests and civil unrest to Biden, when in fact all of it is happening as a direct result of his own hateful and divisive presidency is just so incredibly idiotic.

[activeStick]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1301272621468844032

This was from Wolf Blitzer's one on one interview this afternoon with Barr. Wild watch if you didn't see it.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

So I think it is time.

What time, you ask? I’m glad you asked, imaginary person: it is time to start the US electoral tradition of posting an (almost) daily data dump of polls!

The election is now close enough that most pollsters have switched to their likely voter samples; also, polls after the conventions tend to be a little more predictive of the result. The election is still a little over 2 months away, which in 2020 terms might seem like an eternity, but isn’t really all that long.

There will be a TON of polls released between now and Election Day and on an individual level they will show all KINDS of different things so... get out your clutching pearls and your fainting couches and let’s do this.

I’ve been looking for the best polling aggregator out there and am open to suggestions. I like FiveThirtyEight but now that they have implemented their “model” with all of its secret sauces I’m not sure where I can find a list of just the polls.

For now I’m using realclearpolitics.com. Here is your first daily poll dump of the 2020 election season:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Some notes:

NINE national polls were released today and ... Biden leads in all of them. The closest is Biden +4 (the MUCH maligned Rasmussen Reports), but most are between the high single digits up to Biden +11 (YouGov).

Meanwhile a smaller handful of state level polls too:

Pennsylvania (Monmouth): Biden 49, Trump 46
Wisconsin (FOX News): Biden 50, Trump 42
Arizona (FOX News): Biden 49, Trump 40
North Carolina (FOX News): Biden 50, Trump 46

Read into that what you will but those numbers do not look very Trumpy to me. Interestingly the CNN poll (in which Biden leads 51-43) also found Biden’s supporters are more enthusiastic than Trump’s, though large majorities of both groups said there was nothing that could change their minds.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

I've seen a bunch around +8 for Biden, which means between the electoral college, gerrymandering and voter suppression Trump can still easily win in November.

[Rutuu]

This whole thing feels like the MacGregor v Mayweather fight. The hype made it feel like it was going to be close, but CM's chances were heavily exaggerated.

[photon]

538 also has just the polls available: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

Also notable that Trump's dip in approval for the pandemic has gone and he's back to his historical level, even a bit above.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

I've seen a bunch around +8 for Biden, which means between the electoral college, gerrymandering and voter suppression Trump can still easily win in November.

This will be the ultimate factor. In a fair election I think Trump loses in a landslide. Cheating, voter suppression, and Russian interference is all he's got, so the results will probably end up be much closer. And that could cause all kinds of problems, like Trump refusing to concede, claiming it's all rigged, demanding investigations, etc.. Unless Dem supporters get out there and vote in record numbers, this could get really messy.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

This whole thing feels like the MacGregor v Mayweather fight. The hype made it feel like it was going to be close, but CM's chances were heavily exaggerated.

Were you living under a rock in 2016? Everyone thought the election was a mere formality and it would simply be a passing of the torch from Obama to Hillary. Even Trump thought so, I guarantee it. The polls reflected that.

2020 might feel like Biden will mop the floor with Trump, but guess what? Nothing is certain.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by photon

538 also has just the polls available: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

Also notable that Trump's dip in approval for the pandemic has gone and he's back to his historical level, even a bit above.

Confusingly after a series of polls showing Biden ahead nationally and in every battleground state, fivethirtyeight’s model shows Biden’s chance of winning going DOWN by 1% to 69%.

I suspect it’s the Harris poll of Minnesota showing Biden only up by 5 or the Monmouth poll where Biden is up only 4 in Pennsylvania. But Harris is a Republican pollster, and I would have thought yesterday was a strong day for Biden polling-wise.

[troutman]

I doubt we will know the results November 3rd. Could be days or weeks for all the votes to get counted. Maybe some legal challenges too.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Pretty amazing. After all that grinding one would think your axe would be dulled right down to a tiny nub but there you are still fighting the good fight.

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

Gonna start calling this 'both-sidesism'.

Originally Posted by dino7c

Yeah but one guy doesn't think racism even exists

Lol, I was responding to a guy who basically said "Biden isn't sounding as fog-brained as he was previously" and I get piled on with personal attacks and a whataboutism.

You guys are sure a sensitive bunch.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Were you living under a rock in 2016? Everyone thought the election was a mere formality and it would simply be a passing of the torch from Obama to Hillary. Even Trump thought so, I guarantee it. The polls reflected that.

No, the polls didn't reflect that. The electoral college had the race close and even the national polls had it close. Clinton was projected to win by 2.1 points, and that was accurate in the popular vote. Unfortunately the electoral college was a toss up in many swing states, which is where predictions should really focus. This is why American politics is so hard for Canadians to understand, the popular vote and polling is misleading. You have to dig into the data to make a projection and understand the confounding nature of the other party candidates in the binary polling data. What was unexpected was the "undecided" statistic would break almost exclusively to Trump in three swing states. This outcome was so statistically small it raised a lot of eyebrows from those who provide oversight in relation to elections. But it was consistent with some models and outcomes.

2020 might feel like Biden will mop the floor with Trump, but guess what? Nothing is certain.

That is what Trump wants you to believe. He wants you to believe that people will lie and not tell pollsters accurate information. He wants you to believe that the system is not telling the truth so he can then claim the results of the election are bogus. The fact this stuff is repeated is concerning and means his message is resonating with the public and consumers are buying it. Our democracy is dying before our eyes because people are ignorant and won't challenge a damn thing they are told.

[ernie]

Well with Trump telling his supporters in North Carolina to vote twice perhaps we will see a bunch of Trumpites lose their right to vote forever.

This timeline is amazing. The president urging people to vote twice and a state election board having to remind people that doing so and urging others to do so is a felony...

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by ernie

Well with Trump telling his supporters in North Carolina to vote twice perhaps we will see a bunch of Trumpites lose their right to vote forever.

This timeline is amazing. The president urging people to vote twice and a state election board having to remind people that doing so and urging others to do so is a felony...

It's so effing stupid.

"Dems are going to engage in voter fraud!"

*actively encourages his voters to engage in voter fraud*

[FlameOn]

Every day I see Trump having that much support in polls like this, I realize I'm still not cynical enough.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Every day I see Trump having that much support in polls like this, I realize I'm still not cynical enough.

Yes. However much you are worried now, it's not enough.

[GirlySports]

It's not that difficult for Canadians to understand the winner of the popular vote doesn't always win the election. In the last election, the Conservatives won the popular vote by more than 200,000 votes.