2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

If Tkachuk was a UFA this summer he gets 8.5M plus on the open market. So 10M in a few years is not far off.

Not in a flat market. Are you missing that the salary cap is not going up and that HRR is expected to be flat for the next two to three years? The only way Tkachuk get's $10M is if he is in the elite of the league, a top 10 player. Sitting outside the top 30 doesn't get you in that company. Tkachuk will have to put up a 40 goal, 90 point season or two before that type of money is spent on him. And he'll have to step up in the playoffs. Matthew isn't there yet, and anyone who spends that kind of coin on him right now is screwing their team over.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Oh I don't want him either. I just think he seems like a guy the Flames would be all over.

Another Neal. Brouwer type? Yikes. Another wasted spot while giving us less money to work with!

[kukkudo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Not in a flat market. Are you missing that the salary cap is not going up and that HRR is expected to be flat for the next two to three years? The only way Tkachuk get's $10M is if he is in the elite of the league, a top 10 player. Sitting outside the top 30 doesn't get you in that company. Tkachuk will have to put up a 40 goal, 90 point season or two before that type of money is spent on him. And he'll have to step up in the playoffs. Matthew isn't there yet, and anyone who spends that kind of coin on him right now is screwing their team over.

And you're assuming other players contracts don't end, look at the Blues in a few years how much cap space they will have. Always a team out there that will overpay.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

There is also huge risk for Tkachuk to just take the one year as well. I'm sure he will want long term over 1 year and with the cap being much lower maybe the flames get him for less than the 9+ he wanted long term when the bridge deal was signed

That's a worry about it when it happens thing. I think it would take the flames both blowing it up, and not involving Matt enough in the future planning to make him want out that badly. And if that's the case we trade him.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by New Era

Why would Tkachuk's next contract be hard to re-sign? What am I missing here? Is this mythical $9M qualification the issue? What makes Tkachuk's contract such an albatross, so long as he plays up to the level expected by the team?

It's not about it being hard, it's about it being expensive.

Tkachuks deal is bad for the flames because it does the following:

Pays him at or above market rate for 3 years

Established a 9 million dollar base salary which is effectively the salary range he would be at on a long term deal anyway.

Gives Tkachuk the best possible arbitration setting to ask for more than the qualifying offer. Should he go to arbitration, he will have a strong case to significantly increase his qualifying number as there will undoubtedly be contracts signed in the interim that eclipse the 9 million figure such as the deals that players like Marner and Rantanen have already signed.

A qualifying offer term is just one year, so if tkatchuk accepts it, he is UFA at the end of that year.

As I understand it, tkachuk can refuse the qualifying offer at which point the flames would be forced to initiate arbitration. Under that setting, tkachuk is then able to choose the duration/term of the award and walk himself directly to free agency regardless of the AAV. It's also highly unlikely for an arbitrator to rule a player is entitled to less than their qualifying offer. The only option for the flames in that instance would be to walk away from the award, making tkachuk a UFA instantly, or accepting it and having a year to decide whether to move him as a pending UFA or pay UFA level prices to keep him after his term is done.

Basically no matter what, in two years time,Tkachuk will be preparing to test the UFA market, and the reason for that is the Flames wouldn't/couldn't clear the cap space to offer him the AAV and term it would have taken to lock him up.

Then they made that space in January anyway by moving Frolik for a 4th round pick.

[ComixZone]

Now that Johnny says he'd love to stay here long-term, our insecurities have rushed off to Tkachuk leaving at the first opportunity?

We're a needy, insecure fanbase. The sky isn't falling.

I suppose that's what 30 years of terrible gets you.

[robertsfanatic]

Originally Posted by savemedrzaius

All I know is this season according to moneypuck he was ranked 19th in Save%Above Expected...Tukka Rask, Hellybuck, and Hart were ranked top 3. So is it the Leafs D that is letting him down or is it Andersen letting the team down? Either way I think it makes sense for them to part ways.

http://moneypuck.com/goalies.htm

oh he has definitely let in some ill-timed stinkers but i do still believe he is an above average goalie although maybe not elite.

i still believe he is an upgrade on our current goalies depending on the cost to get him.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Chunky was Keith, not Matt. And I’m not sure that’s an accurate statement. I don’t think he’s considered a leader quite yet.

ETA: quite often teams give an A to someone they hope will become a leader because of getting it.

This made me laugh...

Not sure if I agree with your statement about hoping to get a leader by giving him an A. But thanks for the laugh anyways!

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Now that Johnny says he'd love to stay here long-term, our insecurities have rushed off to Tkachuk leaving at the first opportunity?

We're a needy, insecure fanbase. The sky isn't falling.

I suppose that's what 30 years of terrible gets you.

Flash has one agenda right now and that is make the organization look as bad as possible. This new one about the Tkachuk contract being bad is an interesting take.

Rumors were Tkachuk was looking for a 5x8.5M deal. Does that look any better where he is 4 years from UFA making 1.5M more?

Does Marner’s contract look better being paid nearly 11M but for 6 years opposed to 3?

Prior to the pandemic the talk was a cap raising to 88M but obviously a global crisis has changed that.

Not sure how our leading scorer making $7M is a problem but I guess it is because... Flames

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Flash has one agenda right now and that is make the organization look as bad as possible. This new one about the Tkachuk contract being bad is an interesting take.

Rumors were Tkachuk was looking for a 5x8.5M deal. Does that look any better where he is 4 years from UFA making 1.5M more?

Does Marner’s contract look better being paid nearly 11M but for 6 years opposed to 3?

Prior to the pandemic the talk was a cap raising to 88M but obviously a global crisis has changed that.

Not sure how our leading scorer making $7M is a problem but I guess it is because... Flames

Odds are the cap will be 81.5 when Tkachuk is an RFA and odds are we try to extend him after next season. I bet his next cap hit ends up being around that 8.5. So imo this could end up great for the flames. If he had 4 years left at 8.5 his contract probably ends when the cap is going up again and you might be looking at 7 years for 10. I like 2 years at 7 followed by 5 to 7 years at 8.5 to 9

[Lanny_McDonald]

Nvm

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by TOfan

The way I read the post, and forgive me if I’ve misinterpreted, was some criticism was being directed towards Treliving for the Tkachuk contract.

Will it be a tough resign? Yes, probably. But it likely would have been regardless of the term. What’s the issue with the contract?

My understanding is that the Flames will need to qualify Tkachuk at $10 for his next contract. He will be 24 and under team control. At the time the deal was signed do we know what the cap projections were going to be? No. We understand the cap could have been as high as 88 million next year, pre pandemic. What were the comparable deals being signed in 2019? Point at 6.75 on a three year term will get the same QO as he is also due $9 in his final year. Rantanen at 9.25 for 6? Is that one better? Why? What’s the cap going to be in 6 years?

Seems to me there is quite a bit here we, the fans, don’t know. Not too sure what Treliving should have done here.

Maybe cherry picking is the wrong term, nitpicky for sure though. League wide, I don’t see what the issue is here.

Yes, you are right - I was throwing criticism at Treliving.


However, it isn't because of what the cap may or may not be at the time. It is because Treliving signed a contract that basically walks Tkachuk to free agency. Had it been a year shorter? Ok, that's not optimal, but it does give the Flames a bit more leverage. Had it been a few years longer for a higher hit? Well, ok, there is risk there too if Tkachuk doesn't live up to the contract, or if he sustains a serious injury, etc. However, the issue I have with it is that it walks Tkachuk right to becoming a UFA. All he has to do is not re-sign an extension, and just get the qualifying offer for a season.



Flames will not have much in the way of leverage on a contract extension. If Tkachuk wants to stay, great - Flames will be bent over on the next negotiation. If Tkachuk wants to become a UFA, the path is really easy for him to do so. It also devalues him as an asset to the Flames. Not this upcoming season yet (I don't think), but after that one I think his value will drop because of that deal he is on. Maybe it won't, but that's what I think anyway, and why I also feel it is an issue.


Then it comes down to 'why was that deal signed?'. It was announced it was structured that way in order to 'keep the team together as it was', since the playoffs were not indicative of what the team was capable of, and that this was a contender that should be kept together.



Unnecessary risk on arguably the most important contract on the team (at least one of), that walks a valuable asset right to free agency. There could have been moves to clear up some space with players that were not so important long-term to the organization (and Frolik was traded later that same season, for example).


We will see what happens, but in hindsight, this team as built (whether it was players, coaching, mix, culture - whatever else) was not a 'contender' that was in a position to take the risk on an asset like Tkachuk was (and is). That's my criticism as detailed as I can make it (and concisely... I had to edit this a few times since it got a bit long-winded, as many of my posts unfortunately are! lol).


I didn't want the Rantanen deal either, but I would rather Tkachuk signed the Rantanen deal (a bit rich IMO) than a deal walking him to UFA. To make this work, the Flames need at least one long playoff run to make the risk worth it in my estimation - one year of actually contending for the cup while Gaudreau and Tkachuk are on their deals, hence why "in hindsight this deal may really haunt Treliving".

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Yes, you are right - I was throwing criticism at Treliving.


However, it isn't because of what the cap may or may not be at the time. It is because Treliving signed a contract that basically walks Tkachuk to free agency. Had it been a year shorter? Ok, that's not optimal, but it does give the Flames a bit more leverage. Had it been a few years longer for a higher hit? Well, ok, there is risk there too if Tkachuk doesn't live up to the contract, or if he sustains a serious injury, etc. However, the issue I have with it is that it walks Tkachuk right to becoming a UFA. All he has to do is not re-sign an extension, and just get the qualifying offer for a season.



Flames will not have much in the way of leverage on a contract extension. If Tkachuk wants to stay, great - Flames will be bent over on the next negotiation. If Tkachuk wants to become a UFA, the path is really easy for him to do so. It also devalues him as an asset to the Flames. Not this upcoming season yet (I don't think), but after that one I think his value will drop because of that deal he is on. Maybe it won't, but that's what I think anyway, and why I also feel it is an issue.


Then it comes down to 'why was that deal signed?'. It was announced it was structured that way in order to 'keep the team together as it was', since the playoffs were not indicative of what the team was capable of, and that this was a contender that should be kept together.



Unnecessary risk on arguably the most important contract on the team (at least one of), that walks a valuable asset right to free agency. There could have been moves to clear up some space with players that were not so important long-term to the organization (and Frolik was traded later that same season, for example).


We will see what happens, but in hindsight, this team as built (whether it was players, coaching, mix, culture - whatever else) was not a 'contender' that was in a position to take the risk on an asset like Tkachuk was (and is). That's my criticism as detailed as I can make it (and concisely... I had to edit this a few times since it got a bit long-winded, as many of my posts unfortunately are! lol).


I didn't want the Rantanen deal either, but I would rather Tkachuk signed the Rantanen deal (a bit rich IMO) than a deal walking him to UFA. To make this work, the Flames need at least one long playoff run to make the risk worth it in my estimation - one year of actually contending for the cup while Gaudreau and Tkachuk are on their deals, hence why "in hindsight this deal may really haunt Treliving".

Sounds like an awful lot of pessimism to me. Not too sure why. Has Treliving dropped the ball on RFA negotiations yet?

At the end of the day if the two sides are happy with one another, it will work itself out. To date, I don’t see any indication of storm clouds brewing from either side. Treliving’s strongest attribute, I would say, has been his RFA negotiations. I find it hard to believe he has walked directly into a trap without knowing exactly what the situation is. Suffice it to say he knows more than you, or I, about both sides and their intent.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It's not about it being hard, it's about it being expensive.

Tkachuks deal is bad for the flames because it does the following:

Pays him at or above market rate for 3 years

Established a 9 million dollar base salary which is effectively the salary range he would be at on a long term deal anyway.

Gives Tkachuk the best possible arbitration setting to ask for more than the qualifying offer. Should he go to arbitration, he will have a strong case to significantly increase his qualifying number as there will undoubtedly be contracts signed in the interim that eclipse the 9 million figure such as the deals that players like Marner and Rantanen have already signed.

A qualifying offer term is just one year, so if tkatchuk accepts it, he is UFA at the end of that year.

As I understand it, tkachuk can refuse the qualifying offer at which point the flames would be forced to initiate arbitration. Under that setting, tkachuk is then able to choose the duration/term of the award and walk himself directly to free agency regardless of the AAV. It's also highly unlikely for an arbitrator to rule a player is entitled to less than their qualifying offer. The only option for the flames in that instance would be to walk away from the award, making tkachuk a UFA instantly, or accepting it and having a year to decide whether to move him as a pending UFA or pay UFA level prices to keep him after his term is done.

Basically no matter what, in two years time,Tkachuk will be preparing to test the UFA market, and the reason for that is the Flames wouldn't/couldn't clear the cap space to offer him the AAV and term it would have taken to lock him up.

Then they made that space in January anyway by moving Frolik for a 4th round pick.

Tkachuk’s deal is bad because it pays him at or more than market rate? Your faulting Treliving for not signing Tkachuk to a deal for less than market rate (whatever you consider that to be). Let me guess he should have also signed the ‘less than market rate’ contract to max term?

Check your expectations man, they’re a little out of touch,

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Tkachuk’s deal is bad because it pays him at or more than market rate? Your faulting Treliving for not signing Tkachuk to a deal for less than market rate (whatever you consider that to be). Let me guess he should have also signed the ‘less than market rate’ contract to max term?

Check your expectations man, they’re a little out of touch,

If you won't read the post there's not much I'm going to be able to do here.

[Lanny_McDonald]

I posted this earlier, but decided to remove it because I couldn't find any verification of it anywhere. I had a conference call with someone who is sort of connected to a team and they told me that the Flames and Canadiens have made a deal where Gaudreau and another minor league piece were headed to Montreal for Max Domi, Ryan Poehling, and two draft picks. Has anyone else hear anything like this? This kind of freaked me out.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by New Era

I posted this earlier, but decided to remove it because I couldn't find any verification of it anywhere. I had a conference call with someone who is sort of connected to a team and they told me that the Flames and Canadiens have made a deal where Gaudreau and another minor league piece were headed to Montreal for Max Domi, Ryan Poehling, and two draft picks. Has anyone else hear anything like this? This kind of freaked me out.

This deal was proposed 3-4 pages ago by someone on this board. I hope it isn't true. That would be a big fail.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by David Struch

Fake trade rumour trending

To CGY:
- Max Domi
- Ryan Poehling
- #16 Overall 2020 Draft pick

To MTL:
- Johnny Gaudreau

https://twitter.com/search?q=Gaudreau&src=trend_click

It was more than 3-4 pages back but here it is. Hope it is indeed a fake trade rumor.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by New Era

I posted this earlier, but decided to remove it because I couldn't find any verification of it anywhere. I had a conference call with someone who is sort of connected to a team and they told me that the Flames and Canadiens have made a deal where Gaudreau and another minor league piece were headed to Montreal for Max Domi, Ryan Poehling, and two draft picks. Has anyone else hear anything like this? This kind of freaked me out.

Are the picks 2 first rounders?

[REDVAN]

I'm late to this too, but I would do that deal. Make a lot of sense for Calgary- and I don't know if there's going to be a better offer that comes up.