One year later: how do you feel about the Lucic/Neal swap?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Uh, on july 2nd 2022 he will have 3 million owed to him in lump sum payout and 1 million owed to him in Salary.

If you buyout Lucic In july 2021 the cap hit penalty for the 21-22 season is 3.5, the cap hit for 22-23 is 4.885 and there is a cap penalty of ~500k for 2 years after that. That's significantly worse cap hit penalty than buying out Neal.

If you buy out Lucic in july 2022, the following season cap penalty is 4.6 with another year at ~300k

He's owed a 3 million dollar Bonus on July 10th of the final year of his deal, so even in a scenario where he decides to leave a million dollars on the table (which I think is exceedingly unlikely), flames ownership is still going to have to cut him a cheque for 3 million bucks on July 10th just for him to go away.

Because he has the full NMC through to the end of his contract, why would he retire and leave a million dollars on the table when he knows there's no chance he'll play outside the NHL and if his body is in such shape that makes him want to retire, he'll be able to collect that million dollars on LTIR and not play anyway.

You're just quoting what I already said on the buy out.

$9.5M vs $9M

Yes the Oiler version would be more leveled, but that just means two easier years and two tougher years. It doesn't change the total at all. With Stone off for both years, and Brouwer off for year two of the tough two years it helps the Lucic buyout structure.

I assumed the bonus would come before the salary meaning in his final year after July 2nd/10th (whatever) he'd have only the $1M salary upcoming for the 2022-23 season.

That isn't the case? Nothing on Capfriendly to say what order it's in.

[TheScorpion]

Yeah for all the hand-winging about Brouwer when he was here, at least he was a solid PKer and, from what I've seen and heard, a good team guy. Disappointing, and not great at 5v5, but he had uses. Would take him over Neal ten out of ten times

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Even if Lucic were to waive his NMC, why the #### would Seattle take him?

you'd have to bribe them to do that, and that bribe would have to be freakin' massive for them to consider a 6 million dollar capspace waste in their first seasons trying to be competitive and establish a fanbase.

Him waiving his NMC doesn't accomplish anything for Calgary even if he's willing to do so, because you have to have another party willing to take on that Albatross in the first place.

Not the way I see it.

If he waives you expose him and don't have to leave a better player unprotected.

That's the value. Nobody expects Seattle to take him.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Except for the whole “additional protection slot” thing. Kind of important.

Is it though?

Just to be clear, we are saying that hopefully but uncertain the pain of the NMC is mitigated by him waiving it, but there would have been no such necessity with Neal or with a neal buyout.

Lucic waiving isn't a commodity or asset in the trade, it's a mitigating factor that we hope comes to pass because if it doesn't it makes the trade much worse.

Lucic waiving is a break-even scenario with a neal contract or a buyout. Not waiving means it's automatically worse.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Yeah for all the hand-winging about Brouwer when he was here, at least he was a solid PKer and, from what I've seen and heard, a good team guy. Disappointing, and not great at 5v5, but he had uses. Would take him over Neal ten out of ten times

If Brouwer hadn't have been bought out the Flames wouldn't have had the cap space to sign Neal.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Is it though?

Just to be clear, we are saying that hopefully but uncertain the pain of the NMC is mitigated by him waiving it, but there would have been no such necessity with Neal or with a neal buyout.

Lucic waiving isn't a commodity or asset in the trade, it's a mitigating factor that we hope comes to pass because if it doesn't it makes the trade much worse.

Lucic waiving is a break-even scenario with a neal contract or a buyout. Not waiving means it's automatically worse.

You said this:
"Even if Lucic were to waive his NMC, why the #### would Seattle take him?

you'd have to bribe them to do that, and that bribe would have to be freakin' massive for them to consider a 6 million dollar capspace waste in their first seasons trying to be competitive and establish a fanbase.

Him waiving his NMC doesn't accomplish anything for Calgary even if he's willing to do so, because you have to have another party willing to take on that Albatross in the first place."

Which is what people are correcting - the statement that him waiving his NMC doesn't accomplish anything. It clearly does.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Is it though?

Just to be clear, we are saying that hopefully but uncertain the pain of the NMC is mitigated by him waiving it, but there would have been no such necessity with Neal or with a neal buyout.

Lucic waiving isn't a commodity or asset in the trade, it's a mitigating factor that we hope comes to pass because if it doesn't it makes the trade much worse.

Lucic waiving is a break-even scenario with a neal contract or a buyout. Not waiving means it's automatically worse.

It's literally one of the biggest things Oiler fans and writers are clinging to as every domino continues to fall against them.

Sure it matters.

Treliving had a discussion with the player by all accounts before the trade was consummated, and likely doesn't do the deal without the handshake agreement from Lucic.

The player wanted out of Edmonton as bad as Neal wanted out of Calgary.

So Treliving saves his ownership $10M, gets a player that fits better and is better in the room, adds in a 3rd round pick, and assures the team they don't get hurt in expansion. Then the player contributes both physically and offensively in the play in series, providing more on ice value than any of us expected.

Why do you want to be right last summer so bad that you can't see this is working out for the team you follow? Tough spot to be in.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

You said this:
"Even if Lucic were to waive his NMC, why the #### would Seattle take him?

you'd have to bribe them to do that, and that bribe would have to be freakin' massive for them to consider a 6 million dollar capspace waste in their first seasons trying to be competitive and establish a fanbase.

Him waiving his NMC doesn't accomplish anything for Calgary even if he's willing to do so, because you have to have another party willing to take on that Albatross in the first place."

Which is what people are correcting - the statement that him waiving his NMC doesn't accomplish anything. It clearly does.

Him waiving brings the contract up to par with Neals. That's the point.

If we're comparing Neal Vs. Lucic, the ability to expose Neal to the expansion draft regardless is a factor.

At this point, we are hoping that Lucic's contract is as flexible in regards to expansion as Neal's would have been.

[Flamenspiel]

The Lucic deal is settled, it was a good acquisition at a reasonable price. This team has way bigger fish to fry.

It’s 91% approved by CP, is it really necessary to convince the other 9%? We have to tolerate and accept that not everyone will agree.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Him waiving brings the contract up to par with Neals. That's the point.

If we're comparing Neal Vs. Lucic, the ability to expose Neal to the expansion draft regardless is a factor.

At this point, we are hoping that Lucic's contract is as flexible in regards to expansion as Neal's would have been.

Don't think the trade happens without that assurance.

Since then we've heard Treliving say twice it's not a concern, and writers like Cruickshank and Duhatchek write expansion lists with Lucic mysteriously unprotected.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It's literally one of the biggest things Oiler fans and writers are clinging to as every domino continues to fall against them.

Sure it matters.

Treliving had a discussion with the player by all accounts before the trade was consummated, and likely doesn't do the deal without the handshake agreement from Lucic.

The player wanted out of Edmonton as bad as Neal wanted out of Calgary.

So Treliving saves his ownership $10M, gets a player that fits better and is better in the room, adds in a 3rd round pick, and assures the team they don't get hurt in expansion. Then the player contributes both physically and offensively in the play in series, providing more on ice value than any of us expected.

Why do you want to be right last summer so bad that you can't see this is working out for the team you follow? Tough spot to be in.

I was already right about the trade last offseason.

It's not about wanting to be right, it's about wanting to be accurate. So when you say things like Treliving assures the Flames won't get hurt in expansion, what you mean is that the Flames had a contract that wouldn't hurt them in expansion and traded it for a contract that might but there is a handshake agreement that it won't.

Treliving didn't improve the flames expansion position, he potentially worsened it and we hope that there is a handshake deal that doesn't damage the organization.

Best case scenario Lucic's contract has the same impact on the expansion draft as Neal's would have.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I was already right about the trade last offseason.

It's not about wanting to be right, it's about wanting to be accurate. So when you say things like Treliving assures the Flames won't get hurt in expansion, what you mean is that the Flames had a contract that wouldn't hurt them in expansion and traded it for a contract that might but there is a handshake agreement that it won't.

Treliving didn't improve the flames expansion position, he potentially worsened it and we hope that there is a handshake deal that doesn't damage the organization.

Best case scenario Lucic's contract has the same impact on the expansion draft as Neal's would have.

No he looked at a laundry list of items

- what player would be a better fit on our third line?
- what player would be a better fit in the room?
- what player will save the team actual cash?
- Can we get a kicker from Edmonton to cover salary?
- What about a clause to get a pick?

Ok all that looks good.

Now that damn expansion thing.

Hey Loooch what say you agree to waive and we can get this done?

Sure thing Tre

Done.

[Strange Brew]

Neal for Lucic was one of the few things Treliving got right in the last 12 months IMO.

Sitting on his hands through two trade deadlines and one full off season is what's so damaging IMO while the rest of the league is getting better.

[schteve_d]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Yup no one has ever suggested Seattle would take him.

I have to chuckle at the thought of that conversation:

Tre: "Hey Milan, can you please waive your no movement clause for the expansion draft so we can protect someone else? Let's be honest, they wouldn't take you a million years".

Lucic: "Yeah, that's for sure. Ok, boss".

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Neal for Lucic was one of the few things Treliving got right in the last 12 months IMO.

Sitting on his hands through two trade deadlines and one full off season is what's so damaging IMO while the rest of the league is getting better.

There's a quite a bit of editorializing in that.
He wasn't sitting on his hands.
Ultimately it matters what you get done. But that makes it sound like he wasn't actively trying to improve the team.
We know he was.

Saying "his inability to make the team better for the last 2 years" is a fair comment. "Sitting on his hands" isn't accurate.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Is it though?

Just to be clear, we are saying that hopefully but uncertain the pain of the NMC is mitigated by him waiving it, but there would have been no such necessity with Neal or with a neal buyout.

Lucic waiving isn't a commodity or asset in the trade, it's a mitigating factor that we hope comes to pass because if it doesn't it makes the trade much worse.

Lucic waiving is a break-even scenario with a neal contract or a buyout. Not waiving means it's automatically worse.

I understand what you’re saying.

Well let’s chalk it up to the boys liking video games and Neal pissing and moaning about it constantly. My first thought on when this trade happened was “holy #### they must really want Neal out of there”.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by schteve_d

I have to chuckle at the thought of that conversation:

Tre: "Hey Milan, can you please waive your no movement clause for the expansion draft so we can protect someone else? Let's be honest, they wouldn't take you a million years".

Lucic: "Yeah, that's for sure. Ok, boss".

Sure this is purely based on a few anecdotes I’ve heard about the guy, but I would be willing to bet that Treliving doesn’t even have to ask.

[Vinny01]

Trade worked out much better than expected. Lucic is a likable guy when he is on your team and is easy to root for.

His play and leadership has been fun to watch in the playoffs. He definitely took a while to shake the Oiler stink but he was improving as the season wore on.

Neal was useless and I am disappointed in myself for being so pumped about this signing when it happened

[Jordan!]

I think Lucic would be huge for us in AZ.. we desperately need a guy like him we're small and soft (That's what she said)

[GGG]

I still would rather have bought out Neal and not have had Lucic and a 3rd and the risk heading into the expansion draft.

If Lucic doesn’t waive the No Move Neal will have been the better deal.

For the purpose of this poll question today. I take Lucic based on my belief that he has already agreed to waive before the trade even took place.