American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by SebC

Progressives: "Cater to us or we'll stay home"

America: "Okay, so we'll elect Trump then?"

Progressives: *pterodactyl noises*

You're insufferable.

I mean I followed up with what I thought they should do in subsequent posts, but continue to run with the "obtuse twatwaffle" gimmick you've ran with for years.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Itse

I believe there's one idea that Biden and the Democrats are very serious about that's also crucial to a longterm progressive agenda: election reform. It's just clearly in the Democrats interest right now.

Agreed. The "progressive agenda" should be looked at as a marathon and not a sprint. The pendulum just doesn't swing that quickly, especially to go from Trump to Bernie.

It's long been the burden of the left to figure out how to implement a liberal agenda using liberal means, when the system itself has an illiberal structure. You have to start at fixing the core of the electoral system, but in order to do that, you need elect an intermediate to penetrate that wall.

Progressives would be much better served playing the long game and working within the Dem party and continue to chisel away.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by rubecube

So if a Republican votes for a third-party candidate, is that a vote for Biden, or is it also a vote for Trump? Just want to be clear on what the rules are here.

Biden.

Do you actually not understand or are you being purposely pedantic?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

Biden.

Do you actually not understand or are you being purposely pedantic?

Alright, so if I'm an undecided/independent voter, and vote for the Libertarian Party, because neither of the two main parties represent my interests, am I responsible for Biden getting elected or Trump getting elected?

I'm just trying to see where the lines between personal agency and tribal loyalty really start to blend.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

So you ignore the 73%?

Wait... hold on... 17%... 73%...

Republicans speaking in support of the Democrats at the DNC is a BIG deal. It shows a split in the GOP and getting their support is a big shot at the Republican Party.

It's also not really new. They had Ronald Reagan's son in 2004, a GOP congressman in 2008, Charlie Crist in 2012, I guess Bloomberg was a republican. The RNC does it too - Joe Lieberman in 08 being the most obvious example.

You're protecting a Knight by sacrificing your King.

More of a pawn, really... if it was possible to capture your opponent's pawns and then use them against him.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

That's a bit of a contradiction Maritime. If the progressive wing is so small, and if AOC is so irrelevant, then what does that give ammunition to the GOP? Who would care? She is absolutely relevant.

Because despite being largely irrelevant to most Democrats, they can plaster her all over Fox News and elsewhere and convince their audience that she's actually the most important person in the party? Of course they'll care.

You have to rally around your differences, not push them to the side. Who cares about Trump.

Most people... All people?

Originally Posted by rubecube

So if a Republican votes for a third-party candidate, is that a vote for Biden, or is it also a vote for Trump? Just want to be clear on what the rules are here.

If you're aligned with Trump and the GOP on just about everything but you can't bring yourself to vote for him and as a result vote for a third party, then it's a vote for Biden.

(it's actually neither; it's, practically speaking, an abstention, regardless of who you are politically)

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

Biden.

Do you actually not understand or are you being purposely pedantic?

If a moderate Republican who despises Trump, and is ok with Biden, but doesn't really want to vote Democrats votes a 3rd party, then he is probably being true to what he thinks is best for him.

If a racist, xenophobic, anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-health care, gun toting guy votes for a neo nazi party candidate because he doesn't feel like Trump is doing enough to cater to him, then, yeah, that guys is voting against his best interests and just hurting himself by giving Biden a better chance to win.

[MarchHare]

This isn't nearly as complicated as some of you are making it. A vote for a third-party candidate is not the same as a vote for Trump (or Biden), but how damaging it is depends on who they would normally vote for otherwise.

If someone strongly dislikes both parties and never casts their ballot for either the Republicans or the Democrats regardless, their vote is entirely meaningless and doesn't influence the election in any way whatsoever. They may think they're "sending a message" or something, but practically speaking this is no different from not voting at all.

If a progressive Democrat votes for Jill Stein because they think the DNC platform is too centrist or whatever, that's a net swing of -1 votes for Biden.

If a normally-reliable Republican voter dislikes Trump but can't bring himself to vote for a Democrat so they cast their ballot for the Libertarian candidate instead, that's a net swing of -1 vote for Trump.

If a Bernie-or-buster cuts off their nose to spite their face by voting for Trump, that's -1 vote for Biden, +1 vote for Trump, for a net swing of two votes for Trump.

If a Lincoln Project never-Trumper Republican votes for Biden, that's -1 vote for Trump, +1 vote for Biden, for a net swing of two votes for Biden.

[GirlySports]

That's a lot of math.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

This isn't nearly as complicated as some of you are making it. A vote for a third-party candidate is not the same as a vote for Trump (or Biden), but how damaging it is depends on who they would normally vote for otherwise.



If someone strongly dislikes both parties and never casts their ballot for either the Republicans or the Democrats regardless, their vote is entirely meaningless and doesn't influence the election in any way whatsoever. They may think they're "sending a message" or something, but practically speaking this is no different from not voting at all.



If a progressive Democrat votes for Jill Stein because they think the DNC platform is too centrist or whatever, that's a net swing of -1 votes for Biden.



If a normally-reliable Republican voter dislikes Trump but can't bring himself to vote for a Democrat so they cast their ballot for the Libertarian candidate instead, that's a net swing of -1 vote for Trump.



If a Bernie-or-buster cuts off their nose to spite their face by voting for Trump, that's -1 vote for Biden, +1 vote for Trump, for a net swing of two votes for Trump.



If a Lincoln Project never-Trumper Republican votes for Biden, that's -1 vote for Trump, +1 vote for Biden, for a net swing of two votes for Biden.

Also, this stuff only really matters in swing states. If some pissed off progressive in California wants to vote Green, it really doesn't matter.

Jill Stein only got 1% of the vote last time, whereas Gary Johnson got 4%. I suspect it'll be similar numbers this time, which suggests the third-party votes probably hurt Trump more than the Biden.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Alright, so if I'm an undecided/independent voter, and vote for the Libertarian Party, because neither of the two main parties represent my interests, am I responsible for Biden getting elected or Trump getting elected?

I'm just trying to see where the lines between personal agency and tribal loyalty really start to blend.

In a 2 party system, if you don't vote for either of the two parties then you are defacto supporting/effectively voting for whomever you think the worse option of the two.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

That's a bit of a contradiction Maritime. If the progressive wing is so small, and if AOC is so irrelevant, then what does that give ammunition to the GOP? Who would care? She is absolutely relevant.

No, she is irrelevant to anyone except conservatives. They use her and "The Squad" like they are some master strategy group working for the Democrats and planning policy for the next 40 years. There are three women in "The Squad." The other "hyper progressive" is Sanders, and he's not even a Democrat. That's four of 232 Democrats in the House. In what world is three junior members going to have a significant influence on a body that large? AOC, and "The Squad" are irrelevant. The only people who care about them are the Republicans because they provide a boogeyman, a consistent target, and a punching bag that will punch back without thought or backup to their commentary.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

In a 2 party system, if you don't vote for either of the two parties then you are defacto supporting/effectively voting for whomever you think the worse option of the two.

Gotcha. So you can vote for a third-party, guilt-free so long as you feel that both parties are equally reprehensible.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Gotcha. So you can vote for a third-party, guilt-free so long as you feel that both parties are equally reprehensible.

If a progressive thinks they are equally representative, then they obviously don't care about lgbtq rights, racism, gun control, abortion rights, health care accessibility, climate change, having a rational president, plus many others, and they shouldn't pretend they do care about any of those things.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by rubecube

So if a Republican votes for a third-party candidate, is that a vote for Biden, or is it also a vote for Trump? Just want to be clear on what the rules are here.

Third party votes are almost always a vote against the challenger. Ultimately depends on the leaning of the third party candidate and which pool of the two they are siphoning votes from.

Originally Posted by rubecube

The Dems have moved left because progressives have forced their hand. And you're right, progressives have woken up to the fact that their best bet to be given more concessions is by forcing the DNC to come to them. It just sucks that if they do it during this particular election, they get stuck with a literal fascist.

The Dems have not moved left. The Republicans have shifted way right, moving the center line, and giving the impression of the Dems moving left. The Dems are still pretty much a centrist party and remain in the conservative half of the centrist position. St. Reagan would be a liberal Democrat today. Joe Biden is right of Reagan, which tells you the current state of American politics. If the Dems want to move left, it should be to get back to the liberal side of the centrist position, but even that is a big ask. Even though most Americans harbor some preference to liberal institutions, they do so with a very conservative approach which makes developing these structures and services very difficult.

Again, the smart thing to do is to primary incumbents in strong-blue districts and continue to build their strength in congress. Also, maybe threaten to stay home in 2022 and turn Biden into a lame duck president.

That's pretty short sighted, and for such a small group with little influence, leaves them open to getting crushed if they try bull#### like this. If they want to get more progressive issues on the agenda, they need to work the system. Primary challenges are just bad ideas and indicative of a party that is not progressive and demands loyalty to a single perspective.

Originally Posted by rubecube

Alright, so if I'm an undecided/independent voter, and vote for the Libertarian Party, because neither of the two main parties represent my interests, am I responsible for Biden getting elected or Trump getting elected?

I'm just trying to see where the lines between personal agency and tribal loyalty really start to blend.

I love Bernie Bros. Always willing to hold their breath until they are blue in the face or until someone gives them what they want. But they are always the first to bitch and complain after throwing their vote away and going against their own interests. And don't give me any #### about Biden not representing your values/interests and then going and voting Libertarian. How can anyone claim to be a "progressive" then leap three or four positions to the right in the political spectrum? Craziness amplified.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Gotcha. So you can vote for a third-party, guilt-free so long as you feel that both parties are equally reprehensible.

I've never given that any thought as I can't imagine a scenario where the two choices in a two party system were equal.

I've spent the last few minutes thinking of a scenario where that would be the case.

But to your question, if two parties in a two party system were equal (either equally good or equally bad) then a vote for a 3rd party wouldn't cost either side a vote.

Two questions for you:

1) can you give an example, and
2) do you understand the logic and math behind voting 3rd party or not voting in a 2 party system and how it benefits the worse candidate?

[troutman]

It may take a generation for the progressive agenda to get a bigger seat at the table. Some red states will slowly turn purple, then blue (the big one being Texas). I think the Republicans know that future demographics don't look great for them, and they are trying to get away with as much as they can right now.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by troutman

It may take a generation for the progressive agenda to get a bigger seat at the table. Some red states will slowly turn purple, then blue (the big one being Texas). I think the Republicans know that future demographics don't look great for them, and they are trying to get away with as much as they can right now.

I think we're already there. There are more liberal and reasonable people in the US. Yes, the electoral college sucks but it shouldn't be a factor if the Democrats get everybody involved. Trumps voting cap is the 62 million votes he got last time. Biden could get way more than the 65 million Hillary got if he ran a campaign with good ideas and inclusive to everyone, not just a Trump sucks campaign. Why are they relaying in Lincoln Project Republicans.

The GOP is dead. The Democrats only lose if people don't show up. GOP knows this so they're trying to cheat every way they can.

My DNC Convention would have had everybody, young people, people of color, LGBT. It's virtual! have it run 24/7! Jerry Lewis Telethon style.

[photon]

Oh good one of the current 538 simulations is a tie in EC votes and the house decides the winner. That would fit in 2020 perfectly, lets do that.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by photon

Oh good one of the current 538 simulations is a tie in EC votes and the house decides the winner. That would fit in 2020 perfectly, lets do that.

It will probably take them 6 months to sort out who won Florida to get there.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

Two questions for you:

1) can you give an example, and
2) do you understand the logic and math behind voting 3rd party or not voting in a 2 party system and how it benefits the worse candidate?

Attitudes such as the one below aren't uncommon. It's nice for the academic class to pontificate on removing statues and other surface-level issues, but how do you convince this guy that his life is going to be radically better under a Biden presidency than a Trump presidency?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...-comeback-dnc/

But Bordieri did not appear in the roll call for a lofty cause, or for the politics, he told The Washington Post. In fact, he’s not sure if he’ll vote for Biden at all.

“Everything to me is always the same,” he said. “They say they’re going to change health plans, the economy, the workforce. … The only thing that really changes is the price of things going up, and all these rich people making more money.”

A native of Cranston who has spent his entire career working in restaurants, Bordieri admitted he doesn’t know much about the Democratic nominee and former vice president. Although he votes, “I don’t really have any say on who, what, when or where.”